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  • Mish fires back at iTulip

    Mish fires back at iTulip - full article

    "....Some do the inflationista two-step to avoid admitting that we are indeed in deflation, choosing instead to call it "disinflation"


    In short: "We are going to have a period of deflation that we will instead call disinflation."

    'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone,' it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.'

    'The question is,' said Alice, 'whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

    'The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, 'which is to be master - that's all.'

    "It appears that the deflationista camp is incapable of comprehending a model, and the events that it forecasts, that lays out a two step process. For some reason they cannot grasp the fact governments will respond to disinflation with inflation, that the impact of those interventions is not instantaneous, and that markets historically are not very good at foreseeing the change in inflationary conditions in either direction."-EJ

    Not quite. Rather it appears that some who suggested there would never be deflation are gracefully attempting to back into it, and indeed going out of their way with a two-step to pretend it is something else.

    Every deflationist on the planet understands inflation will be back at some point and the Fed will attempt to do everything it can to avoid it.

    But now that we have agreement from the inflationista camp that there is deflation (even if they choose to call it something else). At least that is a two-step in the right direction...

    ...Disinflation makes no sense with stock prices down 40% and corporate bond yields soaring. Stocks do best in disinflation. Corporate bond yields drop in disinflation. This is not disinflation by any stretch of the imagination."

    -continued here-

    (For the record, I've read Mish for over five years since one of the most productive things I can do is read those that disagree with my viewpoint, and while I applaud his work ethic, I have usually disagreed with his outlook/definitions. - SteveAustin2006)
    Last edited by ST; December 15, 2008, 06:40 PM.
    --ST (aka steveaustin2006)

  • #2
    Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

    I vote for coming up with a new word altogether to short circuit the argument...my vote is with George Costanza:

    Shrinkage!

    :eek:

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

      Originally posted by steveaustin2006 View Post
      Mish fires back at iTulip - full article

      "....Some do the inflationista two-step to avoid admitting that we are indeed in deflation, choosing instead to call it "disinflation"


      In short: "We are going to have a period of deflation that we will instead call disinflation."

      'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone,' it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.'

      'The question is,' said Alice, 'whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

      'The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, 'which is to be master - that's all.'

      "It appears that the deflationista camp is incapable of comprehending a model, and the events that it forecasts, that lays out a two step process. For some reason they cannot grasp the fact governments will respond to disinflation with inflation, that the impact of those interventions is not instantaneous, and that markets historically are not very good at foreseeing the change in inflationary conditions in either direction."-EJ

      Not quite. Rather it appears that some who suggested there would never be deflation are gracefully attempting to back into it, and indeed going out of their way with a two-step to pretend it is something else.

      Every deflationist on the planet understands inflation will be back at some point and the Fed will attempt to do everything it can to avoid it.

      But now that we have agreement from the inflationista camp that there is deflation (even if they choose to call it something else). At least that is a two-step in the right direction...

      ...Disinflation makes no sense with stock prices down 40% and corporate bond yields soaring. Stocks do best in disinflation. Corporate bond yields drop in disinflation. This is not disinflation by any stretch of the imagination."

      -continued here-

      (For the record, I've read Mish for over five years since one of the most productive things I can do is read those that disagree with my viewpoint, and while I applaud his work ethic, I have usually disagreed with his outlook/definitions. - SteveAustin2006)
      Like the economy, my car slows down. It doesn't mean I'm in reverse, I'm just going forward more slowly. That's deceleration or to make the economic tie, disinflation. Economically speaking, we'll know when we're in reverse, we have lots of ways to measure it, but we're not there. I think EJ made a point of using clear definitions in a post the other day. Mish will get his wish, but I find it more than a little creepy that he can't wait for it to come true.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

        Originally posted by steveaustin2006 View Post
        Mish fires back at iTulip
        The Itulip thesis has shown a small period of deflation/disinflation for years and years and years. Mr. Deflation now wants to pretend that that drop was just added recently.

        I pointed to this "article" thing earlier - I didn't link to the full article though -that's a no-no hereabouts. I'll paraphrase my comment from the rants section

        "Mr Deflation is writing that others switch definitions because Mr. D. got tired of everyone calling him on his definition-switching. This includes Pulava (at least 2 years ago, if I remember correctly), and more notably, Jansen (a year ago?)."

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

          Does someone know what is Mish recommended allocation? 100% cash?

          Anyway, if we are experiencing deflation, I would be interested in knowing what is Mish's explanation for oil at $45/pb.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

            Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
            but I find it more than a little creepy that he can't wait for it to come true.
            It's because he's been waiting for it and calling for it for at least 5 years on the "mishedlo" Fool board before his blog - some say its been longer than that. That's not really investing in my book. The entire time that commodities were rising he was really 'visibly' (so to speak) annoyed.
            --ST (aka steveaustin2006)

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

              Originally posted by steveaustin2006 View Post
              It's because he's been waiting for it and calling for it for at least 5 years on the "mishedlo" Fool board before his blog - some say its been longer than that. That's not really investing in my book. The entire time that commodities were rising he was really 'visibly' (so to speak) annoyed.
              Ah, his timing must be about as good as mine. Right idea, wrong era. I've only been around iTulip long enough to make one public ill timed move by shorting treasuries. I suppose the difference is that Mish has his ego wrapped in his positions. I've a day job so I can be wrong for a long time in my investments and still come out OK.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

                When it comes to being right/wrong there is only one thing we care about:

                How many years straight have you beat the S&P (verifiably) for a significant portfolio and why should we think you will continue to beat the S&P?

                Anyone can go and bet their reputation on some prediction about the economy. If they get it wrong, so what, they just bet their career again on the next phase. And then get their 15 minutes of fame.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

                  Originally posted by blazespinnaker View Post
                  When it comes to being right/wrong there is only one thing we care about:

                  How many years straight have you beat the S&P (verifiably) for a significant portfolio and why should we think you will continue to beat the S&P?

                  Anyone can go and bet their reputation on some prediction about the economy. If they get it wrong, so what, they just bet their career again on the next phase. And then get their 15 minutes of fame.
                  mish is full of shit but makes it up in volume.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

                    Originally posted by MISH View Post
                    ...Not quite. Rather it appears that some who suggested there would never be deflation are gracefully attempting to back into it, and indeed going out of their way with a two-step to pretend it is something else...

                    ......Disinflation makes no sense with stock prices down 40% and corporate bond yields soaring. Stocks do best in disinflation. Corporate bond yields drop in disinflation. This is not disinflation by any stretch of the imagination."...
                    Fine. If deflation is defined [by MISH] as stock prices down 40%, etc. then EJ predicted MISH's deflation just fine. He told all of us to get the hell out of the stock market almost exactly one year ago. Cash and rump of gold...right?


                    Originally posted by MISH View Post
                    ...Every deflationist on the planet understands inflation will be back at some point and the Fed will attempt to do everything it can to avoid it...
                    And this will be his next error. The Fed will do no such thing as "attempt to avoid" it. As always they will aid and abet it, encourage inflation to get well underway, and then be behind the rate curve all the way up. There's not going to be another Volckeresque moment for a very, very long time, if ever again. The memories of the fallout of the debt deflation now underway will remain for such a long time that it will be politically impossible for the Fed to do any such thing.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

                      Mish's arrogance will do him in. He has a hair trigger temper that descends into hysteria very quickly (speaking from experience).
                      Long term the overly cocky always get wiped out.
                      Mish has called the best commentators out there idiots. He also has a revisionist quality to his site that is annoying if you read it every day. He comes out with statements like "The dollar is going up like I thought it would". It makes it sound like you can scroll back through his blog and find a prediction (he didn't make one).
                      Itulip on the other hand has the grace to poke fun at its failures.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

                        Originally posted by mickeyc21 View Post
                        Mish's arrogance will do him in. He has a hair trigger temper that descends into hysteria very quickly (speaking from experience).
                        Long term the overly cocky always get wiped out.
                        Mish has called the best commentators out there idiots. He also has a revisionist quality to his site that is annoying if you read it every day. He comes out with statements like "The dollar is going up like I thought it would". It makes it sound like you can scroll back through his blog and find a prediction (he didn't make one).
                        Itulip on the other hand has the grace to poke fun at its failures.
                        failure is part of learning. no fatal failures here, yet. if gold was $400 today as many said it'd be i'm out of here. it stocks were at 13k i'm out of here. few note the mistakes itulip has NOT made!!! prefer conviction over mumble, mumble, mumble...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

                          I've been reading iTulip and Mish for over a year on a nearly daily basis, and I find these two sites the best around for explaining and predicting the markets. I've learned *tonnes* from both sites.

                          iTULIP: I like iTulip for its long term mostly accurate and academic-like insights/predictions. I love how you guys can see stuff 1 to 2 years down the road with relevant enough accuracy. Futher, I like that there's always a real depth of research and detailed (often above my head) explanation to any particular outlook, as compared to MSM reactionary style predictions with random interviewee of the week. I also like the fact that there's a few brainiacs around other than just EJ, and the daily dialogue between these folk is very much worth my time. I also like the fact there's limited spam or nonsensicle commentary, unlike Mish's site. There appears to be less commentators on here, and all of *much* higher caliber than even Mish's top 5 commentators (excluding the other 50 regulars that spew out mostly nonsense on a daily basis). I like iTulip a lot. Enough to pay for a subscription.

                          MISH's site: I value Mish's blog for his *daily* commentary on "news" that deserve our attention, and often that deserve to be criticized. It's simply a different style than EJ. I must admit, I've learned tonnes from Mish's blog because his agreement/disagreement commentaries are more or less in layman's terms that a newbie can grasp at a fairly rapid rate. I would suggest doing the same at iTulip is more of a challenge for a beginner. In fact, I would argue that it was primarily MIsh's site that taught me enough basics to actually begin to have 1/2 a clue as to what EJ is actually talking about in his Phd-like 'thesis' of the week. The other thing I like about Mish is that he puts his money where his mouth is. You can actually invest through his company (though I haven't), and unlike Peter Schiff, he's actually in positive territory and that's a significant point right there - it means he's more right than wrong, and his timing(s) aren't that far off - aside from the criticism that he may come off as arrogant or not. Lastly, I should point out that Mish is not really an extremist as some are suggesting here, at least not in my view. Countless times he's countered the statements of gold bugs, and suggestions of mass conspiracy theory-like manipulations in the markets. He even went on, in several posts, explaining in some detail why there are no conspiracies as some of his blog commentators suggest.

                          While I'm all for debates about who's right/wrong about deflation/desinflation etc, I think dissing Mish's site is going too far. Sorry to say, but I personally think he is doing a great and tireless job (poor guy hardly gets any sleep most weeks). If his long term theories are wrong, or his timing is off, or he comes off as arrogant or he's not regarded as genius as EJ and the senior gang here, perhaps that is true - as an amateur I can't begin to see that (yet); but still, I very much appreciate his blog.

                          Let's agree to disagree, but please let's leave it at that. I find the daily commentators on here far too mature, and having far more valuable contributions to make than to quibble about other bears that dare stick out their necks out to speak their minds (wrong or right).

                          Just my $1.99 CAD,
                          Peace!
                          Adeptus
                          Last edited by Adeptus; December 16, 2008, 01:35 AM.
                          Warning: Network Engineer talking economics!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

                            Mr Shedlock likes to fire a gun.
                            He recently fired hard towards Prof. Fekete.
                            He is entitled to.
                            EJ will of course be right, as in the long run, somewhere down the road we will see inflation.
                            Shedlock, is right at the moment.
                            Disinflation looks to me as the most probable.
                            If Mish and itulip put up a timeframe for predictions, they would probably come to an agreement.

                            Anyways, discussion is good as long as it is constructive.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Mish fires back at iTulip

                              Originally posted by buljong View Post
                              Mr Shedlock likes to fire a gun.
                              He recently fired hard towards Prof. Fekete.
                              And he seriously mischaracterized Fekete's points, much as he did on ESF dollar intervention and many other areas.



                              Originally posted by buljong View Post
                              EJ will of course be right, as in the long run, somewhere down the road we will see inflation.
                              Shedlock, is right at the moment.
                              Last I looked, EJ was still short and correct - and wasn't wrong for over 4 years. The chances are very good in my opinion that Mish will miss the bottom in most areas.


                              Originally posted by buljong View Post
                              If Mish and itulip put up a timeframe for predictions, they would probably come to an agreement.
                              I doubt it, except on so broad a basis as to be virtually useless.
                              http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

                              Comment

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