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What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

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  • What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

    From the London Banker - What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

    “When a woman thinks that her house is on fire, her instinct is at once to rush to the thing which she values most. It is a perfectly overpowering impulse, and I have more than once taken advantage of it. . . . A married woman grabs at her baby; an unmarried one reaches for her jewel-box.”

    -- Sherlock Holmes from A Scandal in Bohemia, by Arthur Conan Doyle
    When a central bank thinks its house is on fire, it too will rush to save the thing valued most. In the United States, the central bank has rushed to save the bonuses and dividends of its Wall Street clientele by hiding away the bad assets that can no longer be foisted on gullible investors. In Europe too the response of central banks has been to save the wholesale banking and securities industry rather than the consumers and businesses underlying the real economy’s longer term productive strength.

    For a comparative of what is valued elsewhere, it is worthwhile to look at what is being saved. I received in my inbox yesterday documents outlining the efforts being taken by the Hong Kong and Chinese authorities to address the liquidity crisis in their respective jurisdictions. They are available online here (Hong Kong) and here (PRC). The contrasts with the West are striking, and humbling.

    Hong Kong is swiftly introducing a scheme to guarantee credit to SMEs (small and medium enterprises) and exporters. China is introducing controls to limit bank credit to over-extended speculative sectors, accelerate rebuilding in the regions affected by the earthquake earlier this year, and promote improvements in local infrastructure, education and economic adjustment.

    Holmes would have been disgusted by a married woman who grabbed her jewel-box in preference to her baby. In the same way, I am disgusted by the central banks preserving the privileges of the financial elite in preference to the jobs, incomes and businesses powering the real economy. The US and UK authorities may criticise the banks for their inaction in freeing up lending to commercial businesses constrained by the credit crunch. The Hong Kong and Chinese authorities are implementing guarantee schemes and innovating initiatives to rapidly address the problem.

    As Holmes would have considered a child’s life worth more than jewels, I consider the workers and businesses in the real economy as meriting greater protection than the financial elite. It is not merely that I think the financial elite little better than criminals for their irresponsible excesses of recent years, but that I fear long term harm and political instability will come from neglecting the needs of the real economy.

    Shortsightedness is a peculiar affliction of the Western economies. We cannot seem to project the consequences of our actions beyond the next quarterly report, fiscal year or - at most - election cycle. Eastern policy makers have a capacity for longer vision – and longer memory – which makes them appreciate sooner the potential consequences of bad policy. Perhaps this is a consequence of the longer term dedication required to gain political ascendancy in their less cyclical heirarchy.
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  • #2
    Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

    A decent article, Rajiv.

    Here is the part that I thought is most important, and if the London Banker is correct, then I surmise that all the Fed, Treasury, and Congress have done so far is pissaway what is it, 7-8Trillion dollars (the possible exception is the consideration for loans to the automakers).

    Any discussion of China always invites criticism of its anti-democratic governance. It is worth remembering that the philisophical defense of democracy lies in the proposition that it is more likely over time to serve the interests of the electorate than a system which disenfranchises the people from the determination of their leadership. If the democratically elected governments - through their appointed executives and central bankers - are free over an extended timespan to ignore the interests of the people, then how is a Western democracy superior to a Chinese bureaucracy? From looking at the policies and practices of the past year, the merits of Western democracy are not immediately apparent in ensuring that policy responses to the financial crisis are aligned with the interests of the people. Even over the past decade, it is not clear that the policies of the democratic Western governments have aimed to strengthen and broaden the economy to benefit of the electorate rather than a narrow, self-serving elite.
    Now I expect all you people who have for the last year have been wrapped up and panting about politics and who is best to lead the US out of these deep pile of shit in which we are, are not at all worried. Once the new regime gets sworn in, then it will be clear sailing and Obama and his financial team will steer the State onto its correct path, finally. Were that anyone's hope, I say, "bah, humbug, bullshit." I believe it will ultimately be a continuation of the status quo.

    Who is Stephanie Pomboy? Some Manhattan chick, who looks pretty chic, right?



    Most of what I know about her is that her reports run $25K a year, when I checked a fews years ago, so she either knows something or apparently has enough people believing she knows something to the degree it keeps her with enough income to at least keep looking chic. She is interviewed in this weeks Barron's and when asked:

    "[Barron's] How would you assess the job Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have done in responding to the financial crisis?

    [Pomboy] My preferred solution would have been to do nothing. I think it's the meddling of policy makers that got us into this situation in the first place, along with the asymmetric practice of capitalism where, as long as everyone is succeeding, it is wonderful thing -- but the moment someone fails, we need to revert to socialism. That is really how we got to this place. And [former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan] Greenspan's desire to constantly lubricate any pain by pumping money into the system really created this bubble. But since doing nothing was not a compelling option to [Bernanke and Paulson], I would have favored more aggressive action to arrest home-price deflation, which would have been tackling the disease. Instead, they've chosen to treat the symptoms. Having said all of that, Bernanke and Paulson are determined to mitigate the pain."

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...me_left&page=2

    I choose to believe she is correct to believe that "doing nothing" would have been the best choice; "nothing" in the sense of rescuing the bastards in the banking and financial system that aided and abetted the current crisis.

    I choose to believe she is wrong if she is asserting "more aggressive action to arrest home-price deflation" is the best answer for the entire crisis. She might be biased in that opinion by her interaction with the prevailing FIRE economy.

    I also think I recall Jimmy Rogers and Marc Faber have suggested that the best governmental policy action regarding bailouts would have been no action.

    There are not many people with enough sense and cojones so say the government should let the system itself work this crisis out. Pomboy has cojones? Maybe.
    Last edited by Jim Nickerson; December 14, 2008, 01:21 AM.
    Jim 69 y/o

    "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

    Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

    Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

      Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
      Here is the part that I thought is most important, and if the London Banker is correct, then I surmise that all the Fed, Treasury, and Congress have done so far is pissaway what is it, 7-8Trillion dollars (the possible exception is the consideration for loans to the automakers).
      I don't know what to make of it , but in some strange distorted way the following article may be prescient

      Obama's Gamble - The Ultimate And Final Bet By Obama’s Financial Handlers - The $8.5 Trillion Chip

      A few weeks ago, I warned in my website that the Dow would dive below 7,000 at the earliest by end of December 2008 and at the latest by the end of the first quarter 2009.

      Any responsible central bankers would want to control a downturn, preferably by a gradual slide of the market as opposed to a sharp hard landing.

      But events and data have revealed that these financial bastards are not responsible and are hard core gamblers to their very soul.

      Their mindset is that of the ultimate gambler and nothing in this world will change their behaviour not even the thought that billions will starve and die and economies shattered. They don’t give a damn! And anyone still having illusions about their altruistic aims will be disappointed.

      The stock market and the derivative market is their ultimate casino. Fix this in your mind in the months to come. Then you will understand and agree with me and my conclusions in the next few paragraphs.
      The author of this piece is a Malaysian of Chinese descent. He is a Barrister of 31 years standing and once served as the Political Secretary to the former Prime Minister of Malaysia, Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

        Originally posted by Rajiv View Post
        I don't know what to make of it , but in some strange distorted way the following article may be prescient

        Obama's Gamble - The Ultimate And Final Bet By Obama’s Financial Handlers - The $8.5 Trillion Chip



        The author of this piece is a Malaysian of Chinese descent. He is a Barrister of 31 years standing and once served as the Political Secretary to the former Prime Minister of Malaysia, Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad.
        That is rather interesting, Rajiv. How in the world do you come upon all this stuff, do you never sleep?

        The writings of Matthias Chang strike me as a bit like those of a crazy man, but seriously, I don't know whether he knows something truly important or not. Given his time frame of about seven weeks, we will not have to wait long to see how it plays out.
        Jim 69 y/o

        "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

        Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

        Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

          Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
          The writings of Matthias Chang strike me as a bit like those of a crazy man, but seriously, I don't know whether he knows something truly important or not.
          The only social/political entity less interesting than a doomer is a wild eyed conspiracy theorist. Are both of you so freaked out that you'll not only re-publish this junk here but you'll quasi recommend it? You both sound like you got a bad reading from your numerologist. 2009 is going to be an awful year of transition. Everyone on iTulip gets that. How about if both of you do something to help your communities get through this instead of wasting your time blaming the 'elite'.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

            I would normally not disagree with you on this one, but in conjunction with this item is the item "Fed Refuses to Disclose Recipients of $2 Trillion in Lending"

            In a foxhole there are no atheists. But well before the praying begins, you find out what people are really made of. Perhaps the big, muscled kid who was unstoppable in basic training goes all to pieces while the skinny guy with the thick glasses saves everyone’s bacon. Or vice versa. The point being that prior to a crisis everything rests on appearances. During a crisis it is actions that matter. That’s when we find out what people, and institutions, are really made of.

            Today the Federal Reserve effectively freaked out in the foxhole and declared the spirit of democracy, if not the rule of law, to be disposable conveniences of better times.

            In response to a freedom of information act request by Bloomberg News for the names of the institutions receiving public money, the Fed invoked an obscure rule to block the release of this information.
            Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve refused a request by Bloomberg News to disclose the recipients of more than $2 trillion of emergency loans from U.S. taxpayers and the assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

            Bloomberg filed suit Nov. 7 under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act requesting details about the terms of 11 Fed lending programs, most created during the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

            The Fed responded Dec. 8, saying it’s allowed to withhold internal memos as well as information about trade secrets and commercial information.
            Trade secrets? A trade secret is something like the formula for Coke. A trade secret is an unpatented business process the release of which would harm the competitive position of the holder. I am really at a complete loss to understand what sort of “trade secrets” might apply to the acquisition of bad debt from poorly managed financial institutions.

            If anybody can supply one that might make sense in this situation I am all ears.
            This is similar to the invocation used by the SEC to refuse to divulge the number of outstanding FTDs and the various marketmakers that they belonged to

            See FAILURE TO DELIVER OR "DELIVERANCE"?

            So, while it appears on the surface that steps have been taken to rectify the identifiable improprieties, once again we need look no further than t the SEC's web site where they explain that,

            11. Can I obtain fails information?
            “Some investors have requested that SROs [Self Regulatory Organization = SEC] provide more detailed information for each threshold security, including the total number of fails, the total short interest position, the name of the borker-dealer firm responsible for the fails, and the names of the customers of responsible brokers and dealers responsible for the short sales. The fails statistics of individual firms and customers is proprietary information and may reflect firms’ trading strategies. The release of this information could be used to engage in unlawful upward manipulation of the price of the securities in order to “squeeze” the firms improperly.”
            See also The SEC and Naked Shorting

            So if you think that the Madoff case is an isolated event, and the stock market is a fair marketplace, you would be quite mistaken. This is much much more common than is made out to be.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

              Originally posted by Rajiv View Post
              I would normally not disagree with you on this one, but in conjunction with this item is the item "Fed Refuses to Disclose Recipients of $2 Trillion in Lending"



              This is similar to the invocation used by the SEC to refuse to divulge the number of outstanding FTDs and the various marketmakers that they belonged to

              See FAILURE TO DELIVER OR "DELIVERANCE"?



              See also The SEC and Naked Shorting

              So if you think that the Madoff case is an isolated event, and the stock market is a fair marketplace, you would be quite mistaken. This is much much more common than is made out to be.


              They are just a quasi-government entity so what does a FOIA request bother them?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

                Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                The only social/political entity less interesting than a doomer is a wild eyed conspiracy theorist. Are both of you so freaked out that you'll not only re-publish this junk here but you'll quasi recommend it? You both sound like you got a bad reading from your numerologist. 2009 is going to be an awful year of transition. Everyone on iTulip gets that. How about if both of you do something to help your communities get through this instead of wasting your time blaming the 'elite'.

                santafe2,

                Why don't you find a hog and jump up its ass and get yourself a ham sandwich?
                Jim 69 y/o

                "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

                  Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                  How about if both of you do something to help your communities get through this instead of wasting your time blaming the 'elite'.

                  Yes sir, and while we're at it, let's understand that we all need to sacrifice for the betterment of us all and the country, and we're all going to come together because americans are a hard working and caring people ... and we will get the credit flowing again

                  This is classic, "if you can't beat em, join em, and if you can't join em (i.e., become a politician, banker, or wall street securitizer), then work for em and support them because our destiny lies in their hands ....

                  oh yeah, the one I love the best "now is not the time to address the irregularities (read: fraud, corruption etc.) in the system, we must do whatever is needed to stabilize the system (read: allow the elite to get at least one last giant windfall and keep the greed, and illusion of "getting things without really working" going)
                  Last edited by vinoveri; December 14, 2008, 04:16 PM. Reason: add

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

                    Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
                    santafe2,

                    Why don't you find a hog and jump up its ass and get yourself a ham sandwich?
                    As always, another excellent defense of your position.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

                      Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                      As always, another excellent defense of your position.

                      You've got it, santafe2. Did you find that hog, and how was your sandwich?

                      I really do not grasp what is your problem with anything I've posted here short of my snide remark to your asinine remark as I read it.

                      I happen to agree with the comments I copied in from Rajiv's opening post, and I agree with Pomboy and Rogers and Faber--all of whom are immensely smarter than I, but my opinion is rather much my own; however, it happens to agree with those pundits.

                      You strike me as someone who is trapped into believing/hoping that something will bail America out of this deep pile of fnancially engineered shit in which we find ourselves. Many Americans, I believe, are trapped into placing hope on the current political system, because 1--they see no other way that the problem can be remedied except to trust the politicians and 2--they are not prepared or capable of moving themselves and their families to some other place on the planet (as did Jimmy Rogers in relocating to Singapore). I think the American political system has degenerated into worthlessness except for those who get elected and benefit from the power and benefits (legal and illegal) that are associated with political office. If I were trapped, as I see many as being, then I would be almost incapable of arriving at how I see the current system.

                      I personally do not give a hoot as to who caused all this as I have been able to protect myself probably more by luck than by pure knowledge and fancy investment moves, but someone is responsible, they should be named, and if the country is to survive in the coming hundreds of years, steps need to be taken so that as the future becomes the present the bulk of citizens are given a fair shake versus the elitist wealth holders being continually reimbursed for their greedy foolishness at the expense and welfare of the average person.
                      Last edited by Jim Nickerson; December 15, 2008, 01:21 AM.
                      Jim 69 y/o

                      "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                      Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                      Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis

                        Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
                        You've got it, santafe2. Did you find that hog, and how was your sandwich?

                        I really do not grasp what is your problem with anything I've posted here short of my snide remark to your asinine remark as I read it.

                        I happen to agree with the comments I copied in from Rajiv's opening post, and I agree with Pomboy and Rogers and Faber--all of whom are immensely smarter than I, but my opinion is rather much my own; however, it happens to agree with those pundits.

                        You strike me as someone who is trapped into believing/hoping that something will bail America out of this deep pile of fnancially engineered shit in which we find ourselves. Many Americans, I believe, are trapped into placing hope on the current political system, because 1--they see no other way that the problem can be remedied except to trust the politicians and 2--they are not prepared or capable of moving themselves and their families to some other place on the planet (as did Jimmy Rogers in relocating to Singapore). I think the American political system has degenerated into worthlessness except for those who get elected and benefit from the power and benefits (legal and illegal) that are associated with political office. If I were trapped, as I see many as being, then I would be almost incapable of arriving at how I see the current system.

                        I personally do not give a hoot as to who caused all this as I have been able to protect myself probably more by luck than by pure knowledge and fancy investment moves, but someone is responsible, they should be named, and if the country is to survive in the coming hundreds of years, steps need to be taken so that as the future becomes the present the bulk of citizens are given a fair shake versus the elitist wealth holders being continually reimbursed for their greedy foolishness at the expense and welfare of the average person.
                        You think China has a better form of government than the US. You even took the time to decorate your quote all red and blue. Then after you state your preference for Communism, (China style and bold), you speculate positively on the ramblings of Matthias Chang. Your level of doomer buffonery is spectacular.

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