is kapoom still on?

[goadam1]

I get the feeling from all the contrarian blogs that some of the bearish thoughts are being re-thought due to the extent of the bail-out. Is the bail-out data still being digested? Are bottoms in all forms being re-looked at?

[metalman]

Re: is kapoom still on?

I get the feeling from all the contrarian blogs that some of the bearish thoughts are being re-thought due to the extent of the bail-out. Is the bail-out data still being digested? Are bottoms in all forms being re-looked at?

in The US economy glides like a box of rocks. Don't stand under it ej says 'However, we expect this trend to reverse around Q3 or Q4 2009 as the raw and finished goods negative supply shock meets a money supply spike.' disinflation period ends Q2/Q3 next year?

[GRG55]

Re: is kapoom still on?

in The US economy glides like a box of rocks. Don't stand under it ej says 'However, we expect this trend to reverse around Q3 or Q4 2009 as the raw and finished goods negative supply shock meets a money supply spike.' disinflation period ends Q2/Q3 next year?

Selective raw and finished goods, I suspect. For example, I have difficulty with the concept that there will be a "finished goods negative supply shock" in the global auto sector as early as that [if ever :rolleyes: ].

[metalman]

Re: is kapoom still on?

Selective raw and finished goods, I suspect. For example, I have difficulty with the concept that there will be a "finished goods negative supply shock" in the global auto sector as early as that [if ever :rolleyes: ].

he doesn't break it down... but i bet you're right. plenty of cars! that said, after the giant usa 'going out of business' sale, there will be fewer places to buys cars, home goods, furniture, etc.

[GRG55]

Re: is kapoom still on?

he doesn't break it down... but i bet you're right. plenty of cars! that said, after the giant usa 'going out of business' sale, there will be fewer places to buys cars, home goods, furniture, etc.

Good point. As current inventory gets blown out and companies go bankrupt, or scale back the range of product lines they produce, there will be limits to the "deals" in consumer discretionary.

My wife has been shopping for appliances and fixtures for the bunker. Too early yet to install any of them [still framing], but as the economy spirals down the most acute inventory surpluses seem to be happening now. Deals are being offered just to blow out the inventory now, to cut costs. We just had a local Canadian dealer match the absolute lowest internet price [it was in US$] we could find for a specialized US made fixture she wants. They matched the price without exchange differential...e.g. Loonies par with US$ [:eek:]. Unbelievable.

[skidder]

Re: is kapoom still on?

Well I hesitate to even bring it up but the Q-2 timeframe coincides with Martin Armstrong's business cycle work.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour..._armstron.html

[goadam1]

Re: is kapoom still on?

Please click one of the Quick Reply icons in the posts above to activate Quick Reply.

[LargoWinch]

Re: is kapoom still on?

I think part the disinflation we are experiencing is due to the velocity of money dropping.

Once the velocity picks up coupled with the "new and improved" money supply, poom will kick-in. The million dollar question is when...

I know I am greatly over-simplifying things, but I feel better while doing so and save a lot on Tylenol.

BTW: Any of you guys know how to track velocity of money? Bart, Jk anyone?

[rj1]

Re: is kapoom still on?

I think part the disinflation we are experiencing is due to the velocity of money dropping.

Once the velocity picks up coupled with the "new and improved" money supply, poom will kick-in. The million dollar question is when...

I know I am greatly over-simplifying things, but I feel better while doing so and save a lot on Tylenol.

BTW: Any of you guys know how to track velocity of money? Bart, Jk anyone?

Given the mood in the country and the incoming President, Treasury, and the actions of the continuing Fed, if it occurs, how long does it take the decisionmakers to realize it and act accordingly? There's obviously going to be a lot of pushback against changing current direction when it happens.

[Wild Style]

Re: is kapoom still on?

he doesn't break it down... but i bet you're right. plenty of cars! that said, after the giant usa 'going out of business' sale, there will be fewer places to buys cars, home goods, furniture, etc.

I was just telling a friend that. He wants to buy a LCD and said he wants to time it so he can get the best price. I told him to be careful. There will be a time between total liquidation and store closures where supply will shrink to meet demand and prices will then possibly go back up a bit.

[c1ue]

Re: is kapoom still on?

Largo,

There are lots of ways to track velocity - that's where the various M0, M1, blah blah measures come in.

Ultimately velocity is GDP/Mx.

Unfortunately the M* measures are all lagged by 2 quarters or more. And don't capture things like shadow banking systems. And don't necessarily distinguish between cash, credit, checking accounts, etc.

But theoretically it is possible to measure velocity at any given point in time.

[LargoWinch]

Re: is kapoom still on?

Given the mood in the country and the incoming President, Treasury, and the actions of the continuing Fed, if it occurs, how long does it take the decisionmakers to realize it and act accordingly? There's obviously going to be a lot of pushback against changing current direction when it happens.

I fail to understand your point rj1. Are you saying that the Fed will reduce the supply of money once the cat is out of the bag?