Second Great Depression?

[powersown]

Obama Dismisses Great Depression Talk
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/story?id=6413167&page=1

Obama may not want to talk about a possible depression, but it seems to me worth analyzing all possibilities.

Consequently, I have been reading two books on the subject of K-waves lately. The first, War Cycles, Peace Cycles, by Richard Kelly Hoskins (Virginia Publishing Company), written in 1985. The other, The Downwave- Surviving the Second Great Depression, by Robert C. Beckman (E.P. Dutton), written in 1983. The previous three K-wave cycles and this one up to the mid 80's certainly appeared to follow a pattern. Both writers anticipated the onset of another big depression at that time. Here we are over 20 years later and it looks like it may have finally started. I am wondering what happened between then and now? Why the delay? Most K-wave charts I find show the same pattern, without an adjustment for the past 20+ years. Does anyone have any insight regarding economic waves, this delay, the depression, etc?

[FRED]

Re: Second Great Depression?

I have been reading two books on the subject of K-waves lately. The first, War Cycles, Peace Cycles, by Richard Kelly Hoskins (Virginia Publishing Company), written in 1985. The other, The Downwave- Surviving the Second Great Depression, by Robert C. Beckman (E.P. Dutton), written in 1983. The previous three K-wave cycles and this one up to the mid 80's certainly appeared to follow a pattern. Both writers anticipated the onset of another big depression at that time. Here we are over 20 years later and it looks like it may have finally started. I am wondering what happened between then and now? Why the delay? Most K-wave charts I find show the same pattern, without an adjustment for the past 20+ years. Does anyone have any insight regarding economic waves, this delay, the depression, etc?

See Are You a Doomer?

[goadam1]

Re: Second Great Depression?

Why go with doom? Your predictions of 10 million jobs lost and monetary collapse usually put a kick in my step.

[ASH]

Re: Second Great Depression?

Does anyone have any insight regarding economic waves, this delay, the depression, etc?

My insight is that in order to make a timing prediction based upon an oscillation, the oscillation has to be harmonic (meaning its frequency is fixed), and in order for an oscillating system to be harmonic, its boundary conditions need to be fixed. Since the boundary conditions which constrain the economy are obviously not fixed, you shouldn't expect oscillations with a fixed frequency, and you shouldn't be trying to time anything based upon economic wave theories. In my view, the people who read the most detail into economic wave theories are those most susceptible to numerology. Some of the big picture stuff about why there are economic cycles seems valid enough to me (basically a statement of what the boundary conditions and restoring forces are), but it is a huge mistake to read too much into them from the standpoint of timing.

[FRED]

Re: Second Great Depression?

Why go with doom? Your predictions of 10 million jobs lost and monetary collapse usually put a kick in my step.

That's not doom, that's cold, hard analysis. As ASH so eloquently states here, it's one thing to predict dire future events based on analysis and another to base them on magical thinking, like wave theories.

iTulip stands on its record of both booms and busts. We are not permabear and not doomers. The acid test of a doomer is what they said about Y2K. We said it was going to be a non-event.

That said, looking out over the next five years, we will not be surprised to see a few Mad Max developments.

For example, we forecast 25% and higher unemployment among 18 to 25 year old men. The outcome in the US case is unpredictable, but worst case is bad. Just ask the Greeks where unemployment among the 18 - 25 age group has been above 25% for years.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Second Great Depression?

Stop it Ed, you're scaring me!

[goadam1]

Re: Second Great Depression?

You misunderstand me. I was making a joke that when things look bleak it doesn't matter how you can explain it anymore. It's kind of like the cars being prayed over in Detroit.

Believe me when I say that I thought y2k was a joke and that option arms and credit bubbles were setting up disaster. Now you have me convinced enough to be out of stocks and holding gold (although I still don't know what to do with all the remaining cash).

No magical thinking over here. No Elliot waves. No astrology. No second coming.

I did do a documentary on what ibm is doing on bird flu and I wouldn't count the threat of that one in the doomer camp. Not the end of the world but it would be and could be bad.

[goadam1]

Re: Second Great Depression?

BTW. Based on rumors I hear in the ad business and banking in New York, I would say that January will be the worst drop in employment in the modern history.

Just a guess and not based on a fibonacci sequence.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Second Great Depression?

That said, looking out over the next five years, we will not be surprised to see a few Mad Max developments.

YES!!!!

I've had this puppy in my garage ready to go for years!

[Starving Steve]

Re: Second Great Depression?

The bottom-line is that the future of our children and grandchildren has been sacraficed by our generation (the baby-boomers ) to keep the consumption boom going for as long as possible. Again, this goes back to the idiotic policies of the world's central bankers who have kept interest rates far too low for far too long.

[jtabeb]

Re: Second Great Depression?

YES!!!!

I've had this puppy in my garage ready to go for years!

You might want to go for a Prius. You know, the whole movie is about finding GAS, don't you! ;)

[c1ue]

Re: Second Great Depression?

JT,

Actually, only the first part.

The rest of the movie is about controlling the gas. ;)

[LargoWinch]

Re: Second Great Depression?

For those interested, while on the subject, the following will stop assault-riffle rounds better than anything else:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_Skin_body_armor

[jtabeb]

Re: Second Great Depression?

For those interested, while on the subject, the following will stop assault-riffle rounds better than anything else:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_Skin_body_armor

Yeah, it's classified now because it "doesn't work" according to the army.

Funny how you classify something that "doesn't work" AND allow the DV's who visit in theater to wear this stuff for "testing purposes".

It's like 4x as expensive as our SAPI plate shit (the 1 hit wonder and then you're done under), and from everything I've seen, worth it's weight in gold if you are being shot at.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Second Great Depression?

Yeah, it's classified now because it "doesn't work" according to the army.

Funny how you classify something that "doesn't work" AND allow the DV's who visit in theater to wear this stuff for "testing purposes".

It's like 4x as expensive as our SAPI plate shit (the 1 hit wonder and then you're done under), and from everything I've seen, worth it's weight in gold if you are being shot at.

I am not a military buff or anything, but these clips seem to agree with what you are saying jtabeb:

Part 1:


Part 2:



PS: Just to clarify; jtabeb, you are in the US military full time am I correct?