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I recently ran across the paper "This Time is Different" by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, which is dated April 16, 2008.
It surveys and classifies various financial crises throughout the world from the 1400s to present.
It is long and written in an academic style, but it does highlight a lot of relevant (and hitherto unknown to me) crises. I would recommend at least scanning it quickly to see some of the excellent tables and graphs.
Conclusions (52-53):
1) the paper illustrates the near universality of episodes of serial default and high inflation in emerging markets
2) shows that global debt crises have often resulted from commodity price fluctuations, capital inflows, interest rates, and shocks to investor confidence
3) challenges the widespread belief that 'this time will be different' regarding emerging market debt--i.e., there will be defaults.
4) notes that Greece, Spain, Chile, and Mexico appear to have broken themselves from the habit of serial default on their gov't debt, via vastly different avenues.
For me, the big takeaway was that financial crises and debt defaults are the 'norms' for economic behavior. Hence, Itulip's predictions have abundant historical precedent.
It surveys and classifies various financial crises throughout the world from the 1400s to present.
It is long and written in an academic style, but it does highlight a lot of relevant (and hitherto unknown to me) crises. I would recommend at least scanning it quickly to see some of the excellent tables and graphs.
Conclusions (52-53):
1) the paper illustrates the near universality of episodes of serial default and high inflation in emerging markets
2) shows that global debt crises have often resulted from commodity price fluctuations, capital inflows, interest rates, and shocks to investor confidence
3) challenges the widespread belief that 'this time will be different' regarding emerging market debt--i.e., there will be defaults.
4) notes that Greece, Spain, Chile, and Mexico appear to have broken themselves from the habit of serial default on their gov't debt, via vastly different avenues.
For me, the big takeaway was that financial crises and debt defaults are the 'norms' for economic behavior. Hence, Itulip's predictions have abundant historical precedent.
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