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  • Obama's Looking Glass

    The Brightest Are Not Always the Best

    IN 1992, David Halberstam wrote a new introduction for the 20th-anniversary edition of “The Best and the Brightest,” his classic history of the hubristic J.F.K. team that would ultimately mire America in Vietnam. He noted that the book’s title had entered the language, but not quite as he had hoped. “It is often misused,” he wrote, “failing to carry the tone or irony that the original intended.”

    In the Obama transition, it’s the economic team that evokes trace memories of our dark best-and-brightest past. Lawrence Summers, the new top economic adviser, was the youngest tenured professor in Harvard’s history and is famous for never letting anyone forget his brilliance. It was his highhanded disregard for his own colleagues, not his impolitic remarks about gender and science, that forced him out of Harvard’s presidency in four years. Timothy Geithner, the nominee for Treasury secretary, is the boy wonder president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He comes with none of Summers’s personal baggage, but his sparkling résumé is missing one crucial asset: experience outside academe and government, in the real world of business and finance.

    Postgraduate finishing school at Kissinger & Associates doesn’t count. Summers and Geithner are both protégés of another master of the universe, Robert Rubin. His appearance in the photo op for Obama-transition economic advisers three days after the election was, to put it mildly, disconcerting. Ever since his acclaimed service as Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, Rubin has labored as a senior adviser and director at Citigroup, now being bailed out by taxpayers to the potential tune of some $300 billion. Somehow the all-seeing Rubin didn’t notice the toxic mortgage-derivatives on Citi’s books until it was too late. The Citi may never sleep, but he snored.
    Geithner was no less tardy in discovering the reckless, wholesale gambling that went on in Wall Street’s big casinos, all of which cratered while at least nominally under his regulatory watch. That a Hydra-headed banking monster like Citigroup came to be in the first place was a direct byproduct of deregulation championed by Rubin and Summers in Clinton’s Treasury Department (where Geithner also served). The New Deal reform they helped repeal, the Glass-Steagall Act, had been enacted in 1933 in part because Citigroup’s ancestor, National City Bank, had imploded after repackaging bad loans as toxic securities in the go-go 1920s.

    Well, nobody’s perfect. Given that John McCain’s economic team was headlined by Carly Fiorina and Joe the Plumber, the country would be dodging a fiscal bullet even if Obama had picked Suze Orman. But I keep wondering why the honeymoon hagiography about the best and the brightest has been so over the top. Washington’s cheerleading for our new New Frontier cabinet superstars has seldom been interrupted by tough questions about Summers’s Harvard career or Geithner’s record at the Fed. For that, it’s best to turn to the business press: Andrew Ross Sorkin at The New York Times, for one, has been relentless in trying to ferret out Geithner’s opaque role in the catastrophic decision to let Lehman Brothers fail.

    No doubt the Pavlovian ovations for the Obama team are in part a reaction to our immediate political past. After eight years of a presidency that valued cronyism over brains (or even competence) and embraced an anti-intellectualism apotheosized by Sarah Palin, it’s a godsend to have a president who puts a premium on merit. I also wonder if a press corps that underrated Obama’s political prowess for much of the campaign, demeaning him as a professorial wuss next to the brawny Clinton and McCain, is now overcompensating for that mistake. No one wants to miss out a second time on triumphal history in the making.

    This, too, is a replay of what happened when Kennedy arrived, beating out the more seasoned Richard Nixon and ending eight years of Eisenhower rule. “Rarely had a new administration received such a sympathetic hearing at a personal level from the more serious and respected journalists of the city,” Halberstam wrote. “The good reporters of that era, those who were well educated and who were enlightened themselves and worked for enlightened organizations, liked the Kennedys and were for the same things the Kennedys were for.” They couldn’t imagine that “men who were said to be the ablest to serve in government in this century” would turn out to be architects of America’s “worst tragedy since the Civil War.”

    Post-Iraq, we’re unlikely to rush into a new Vietnam. But we ignore the past’s lessons at our peril. In his 20th-anniversary reflections, Halberstam wrote that his favorite passage in his book was the one where Johnson, after his first Kennedy cabinet meeting, raved to his mentor, the speaker of the House, Sam Rayburn, about all the president’s brilliant men. “You may be right, and they may be every bit as intelligent as you say,” Rayburn responded, “but I’d feel a whole lot better about them if just one of them had run for sheriff once.”

    Halberstam loved that story because it underlined the weakness of the Kennedy team: “the difference between intelligence and wisdom, between the abstract quickness and verbal facility which the team exuded, and true wisdom, which is the product of hard-won, often bitter experience.” That difference was clearly delineated in Vietnam, where American soldiers, officials and reporters could see that the war was going badly even as McNamara brusquely wielded charts and crunched numbers to enforce his conviction that victory was assured.

    In our current financial quagmire, there have also been those who had the wisdom to sound alarms before Rubin, Summers or Geithner did. Among them were not just economists like Joseph Stiglitz and Nouriel Roubini but also Doris Dungey, a 47-year-old financial blogger known as Tanta, who died of cancer in Upper Marlboro, Md., last Sunday. As the Times obituary observed, “her first post, in December 2006, took issue with an optimistic Citigroup report that maintained that the mortgage industry would ‘rationalize’ in 2007, to the benefit of larger players like, well, Citigroup.” It was months before the others publicly echoed her judgment.

    For some of J.F.K.’s best and brightest, Halberstam wrote, wisdom came “after Vietnam.” We have to hope that wisdom is coming to Summers and Geithner as they struggle with our financial Tet. Clearly it has not come to Rubin. Asked by The Times in April if he’d made any mistakes at Citigroup, he sounded as self-deluded as McNamara in retirement.

    “I honestly don’t know,” Rubin answered. “In hindsight, there are a lot of things we’d do differently. But in the context of the facts as I knew them and my role, I’m inclined to think probably not.” Since that interview, 52,000 Citigroup employees have been laid off but not Rubin, who remains remorseless, collecting a salary that has totaled in excess of $115 million since 1999.

    You may be touched to hear that he is voluntarily relinquishing his bonus this Christmas.

    from Frank Rich, NY Times


  • #2
    Re: Obama's Looking Glass

    Originally posted by don View Post
    The Brightest Are Not Always the Best
    Maybe we should have them all pass an examination...:rolleyes:
    `Well, this IS grand!' said Alice. `I never expected I should be a Queen so soon -- and I'll tell you what it is, your majesty,' she went on in a severe tone (she was always rather fond of scolding herself), `it'll never do for you to be lolling about on the grass like that! Queens have to be dignified, you know!'...

    ...Everything was happening so oddly that she didn't feel a bit surprised at finding the Red Queen and the White Queen sitting close to her, one on each side: she would have like very much to ask them how they came there, but she feared it would not be quite civil. However, there would be no harm, she thought, in asking if the game was over. `Please, would you tell me -- ' she began, looking timidly at the Red Queen.

    `Speak when you're spoken to!' The Queen sharply interrupted her.

    `But if everybody obeyed that rule,' said Alice, who was always ready for a little argument, `and if you only spoke when you were spoken to, and the other person always waited for YOU to begin, you see nobody would ever say anything, so that -- '

    `Ridiculous!' cried the Queen. `Why, don't you see, child -- ' here she broke off with a frown, and, after thinking for a minute, suddenly changed the subject of the conversation. `What do you mean by `If you really are a Queen"? What right have you to call yourself so? You can't be a Queen, you know, till you've passed the proper examination...

    --Lewis Carroll--
    Last edited by GRG55; December 07, 2008, 05:31 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Obama's Looking Glass

      summers and geithner are now faced with the consequences of their own, and others', errors. one hopes they've learned a little humility, and have become open to alternative models. one hopes, but one is not optimistic.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Obama's Looking Glass

        Originally posted by jk View Post
        summers and geithner are now faced with the consequences of their own, and others', errors. one hopes they've learned a little humility, and have become open to alternative models. one hopes, but one is not optimistic.
        EJ writes in:
        There are two schools of thought. One that the FIRE Economy and the bubbles it spawned result from accidents and the madness of crowds. Our position is that they are deliberate systems. One of our so far unproven assertions is that non-enforcement of rules and regulations is part of the bubble making machine. But we had only the testimony of people we have interviewed off-the-record for a decade to inform this view. Until now.

        Soon everyone will learn why FIRE Economy insiders are so desperate to restart their system. When the FIRE Economy money dries up, soon reporters who were not able to ask questions before when the FIRE Economy was paying the bills start asking questions, and people who use to be paid not to answer the questions, if they had been asked, start to answer them, and the whole thing comes crashing down.
        Ed.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Obama's Looking Glass

          Originally posted by FRED View Post
          EJ writes in:
          There are two schools of thought. One that the FIRE Economy and the bubbles it spawned result from accidents and the madness of crowds. Our position is that they are deliberate systems. One of our so far unproven assertions is that non-enforcement of rules and regulations is part of the bubble making machine. But we had only the testimony of people we have interviewed off-the-record for a decade to inform this view. Until now.



          the behavior of the ratings agencies was certainly deliberate, and paid for.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Obama's Looking Glass

            Originally posted by jk View Post
            [/indent]the behavior of the ratings agencies was certainly deliberate, and paid for.
            Ditto Washington. If the mainstream media went critical on FIRE, what an impact that might have if FIRE's favorite cash cow, the health industry, was exposed for what it is, instead of the enduring (non-existence :rolleyes class warfare of blaming what remains of organized labor for defending itself against FIRE premium rape.

            (All together now: $13-14-1500 hundred, added to every car Detroit makes, just for union health benefits, Doo-Dah, Doo-Dah, all the live long day. :eek: )

            As delectable as this would be, I'm highly skeptical the corporate media is about to expose FIRE. From the smoldering ruins of FIRE, perhaps, but that would be the equivalent of old school production capital being stuffed by FIRE and the Southwest Mil-Specs in the '60s. That's yet to happen and it won't without quite a fight.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Obama's Looking Glass

              Originally posted by jk View Post
              [/indent]the behavior of the ratings agencies was certainly deliberate, and paid for.
              The SEC demonstrates its incompetence once again. Too little, too late...
              SEC May Curb Credit-Rating Conflicts, Delay New Mortgage Grades

              Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may act to curb conflicts of interest at credit-rating companies while delaying a mortgage-bond ranking proposal faulted by underwriters, two people familiar with the matter said...

              ...The agency may hold off on a rule to distinguish rankings on securitized mortgages from other types of debt and an effort to reduce how much money-market funds rely on ratings in making investment decisions, the people said. The SEC proposed the reforms in June after lawmakers blamed Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s Corp. for adding to the financial crisis...

              ...SEC commissioners also probably won’t vote to scrap a requirement that money-market funds buy bonds carrying a high ranking from two credit-rating companies. While conceding that some ratings on securitized loans proved too optimistic, Fidelity Investments and Vanguard Group Inc. said the requirement prevents fund managers from loading up on toxic debt.
              Yes, you read that last sentence correctly...:eek:

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Obama's Looking Glass

                Soon everyone will learn why FIRE Economy insiders are so desperate to restart their system. When the FIRE Economy money dries up, soon reporters who were not able to ask questions before when the FIRE Economy was paying the bills start asking questions, and people who use to be paid not to answer the questions, if they had been asked, start to answer them, and the whole thing comes crashing down.

                I have been shocked to see the number of stories in the Baltimore Sun, our local rag now critical of the FIRE economy. They had been a consistent cheerleader, especially of real estate, for many years even as the ship was taking on water.

                See, for example, this column from today's paper: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/loc...3671262.column

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Obama's Looking Glass

                  It's astonishing how little it takes to pay these people off. Bizarre, the world is bizarre. Massively corrupt. I'm joining the zeitgeist movement.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Obama's Looking Glass

                    Originally posted by FRED View Post
                    EJ writes in:
                    There are two schools of thought. One that the FIRE Economy and the bubbles it spawned result from accidents and the madness of crowds. Our position is that they are deliberate systems. One of our so far unproven assertions is that non-enforcement of rules and regulations is part of the bubble making machine. But we had only the testimony of people we have interviewed off-the-record for a decade to inform this view. Until now.

                    Soon everyone will learn why FIRE Economy insiders are so desperate to restart their system. When the FIRE Economy money dries up, soon reporters who were not able to ask questions before when the FIRE Economy was paying the bills start asking questions, and people who use to be paid not to answer the questions, if they had been asked, start to answer them, and the whole thing comes crashing down.
                    Interesting that the link to the AP articles focuses on Republican/conservative lawmakers when Freddie and Fannie were run mostly by Dems, and it was Democratic reps like Bawney Fwank and Maxine Walters,who helped to impede efforts to regulate them.

                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs

                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMnSp...eature=related

                    Given that the AP is essentially an in-house news organ of the Democrats, it's not surprising.
                    Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. -Groucho

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Obama's Looking Glass

                      Originally posted by marvenger
                      It's astonishing how little it takes to pay these people off. Bizarre, the world is bizarre. Massively corrupt. I'm joining the zeitgeist movement.
                      I don't know if it is good or bad that corruption in other nations involves survival, and corruption in this nation is mostly for the h*** of it.

                      As for the SEC and various other entities closing the barn door after all the livestock has been run off:

                      (From Casablanca)

                      Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds?
                      Captain Renault: I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
                      [a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
                      Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
                      Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much.
                      [aloud]
                      Captain Renault: Everybody out at once!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Obama's Looking Glass

                        ----nm----
                        Last edited by politicalfootballfan; February 02, 2009, 08:25 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Obama's Looking Glass

                          I think its just the nature of human interaction. Everyone is trying to sell something; some get very successful at it and have bought media legislative and legal influence to help build and maintain their control, and I believe they maintain scarcity becasue this is where they derive their power. Although probably totaly unworkable, the zeitgeist movement sounds great in theory because it tries to remove the scarcity and the necessity of corruption; although no one should starve in US there is still enough scarcity to necessitate corruption, exceptions to rule of course, and it just builds from there. In zeitgeist world people are still going to be selling to win friends and influence people but at least you can opt out and still survive following your own interests, who knows where things could go with this potential unleashed.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Obama's Looking Glass

                            Originally posted by RebbePete View Post
                            I have been shocked to see the number of stories in the Baltimore Sun, our local rag now critical of the FIRE economy. They had been a consistent cheerleader, especially of real estate, for many years even as the ship was taking on water.

                            See, for example, this column from today's paper: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/loc...3671262.column

                            Yeah, but did you read the comments? There is a large segment of the voting population that doesn't believe credit was overextended and overused in general, but only to certain groups of people in the United States.

                            Anyone that doesn't think this recession/depression is not going to lead to more U.S. political balkanization at least in 2010 and most likely again in 2012 needs to read the comment sections of these newspapers (most of them post anonymously) and talk to more regular folks at places such at bars where they will open up to you.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Obama's Looking Glass

                              The Best and the Brightest
                              Well, we've tried dumb and dumber for the last 8 years and we've seen how that worked out.

                              President Elect Obama's Saturday address gave me a small feeling of hope. His proposal for infrastructure reconstruction without an overwhelming emphases on NEW highway construction is a good sign. He still is prepared to move the country away from oil even as gas drops to it's lowest point in 5 years. This is not what I expect the Rubin's and Summers' to be proposing. It's still way too early to tell, and probably a lot of wishful thinking on my part, but I've got a feeling that Obama is going his own way and is expecting his team to use their skills to implement a different set of policies in which they might be accustomed.


                              Unlike the Bush administration which has done everything it can to raise the dead, Obama is starting down his own path. I'll feel a lot more confident when I hear President Obama give a speech to the nation, within a couple weeks of taking office, explaining the mess we are in, and calling for sacrifice from everyone.

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