Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

[Tulpen]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

What, you think demand is down? (that is my guess as to what Tulpen meant, Jim)

Does that explain the delivery delays from APMEX and other outfits?

No it doesn't.

One has nothing to do with the other.

So what if penny investors taking a run on coins and other things made of gold. "Tickle me Elmos" might become in short supply too if some host shows them on TV and says they are way cool.

People are willing to pay 10-20% over the spot price of gold. I call that a mania.

[Tulpen]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

I thought for each and every trade if someone sold, then someone else bought; so wouldn't the number of sellers and buyers always be the same or is my arithmetic incorrect?

Are you really not familiar with this common phraseology?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

One has nothing to do with the other.

So what if penny investors taking a run on coins and other things made of gold. "Tickle me Elmos" might become in short supply too if some host shows them on TV and says they are way cool.

People are willing to pay 10-20% over the spot price of gold. I call that a mania.

Hold on, you said more sellers than buyers. Now you say, manic buying. How it can be both?

I see that since March the USDX has risen from 76 to 86 and during the same time period gold in USD has fallen from 1050 to 750.

[ASH]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

Does anyone remember when I was pounding fists on the table and yelling "BUY THE DEFLATOR, BUY THE DEFLATOR!"

P.S. yes gold was the deflator then, and now.

I remember. I was planning to be first in line to congratulate you, should gold turn out to be a stellar winner in the long run.

Most people will find the following comment silly, for which I apologize, but I'm starting to get the intuitive "sure thing" feeling about gold that I felt about a stock market downturn back in September of 2007.

This statement is meant solely as a comment about my psychological state, and is not meant as any kind of rational analysis. Neither is it a claim of any particular insight -- considering that EJ recommended buying some gold way back in 2001, and considering that a lot of iTulipers have been in the "gold is a no-brainer" camp for some time. As I have already disclosed, I have held a large position in precious metals for awhile, now, myself. I took that position largely on the basis of what passes for logical analysis on my part, and frankly, a lack of better ideas. The only thing that has changed is a little mental switch that finally clicked this week; I've stopped feeling doubt about the eventual outcome -- now I will have to supply by intellectual rigor the doubt that I had previously felt subjectively. It is a very strange (and probably dangerous) thing to feel a lack of doubt, where finance is concerned. Perhaps this means I have now been subjected to so many pro-gold arguments that the sheer volume has overcome my critical faculty. Perhaps it means I'm simply very late internalizing something that is already obvious to others. Regardless, I think my subconscious finally drank the Koolaid this week. My guess is that the news of the Fed monetizing MBS, and the ECB and Bank of England talking about the possibility of quantitative easing, is what pushed me over the edge.

[*T*]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

I thought for each and every trade if someone sold, then someone else bought; so wouldn't the number of sellers and buyers always be the same or is my arithmetic incorrect?

Totally correct I believe. Price is established at the point that the last buyer and last seller agreed to trade in the same quantity.
Similarly, net-net, no actual money is made or lost on the stock market apart from IPOs dividends etc. Money changes hands, pieces of paper change hands, margin debt and credit creation is where it's at. Same with houses I suppose.
A lot of lazy thinking does get done though.

[Tulpen]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

Hold on, you said more sellers than buyers. Now you say, manic buying. How it can be both?

Just compare the volume of a group of individuals chasing a couple of coins with the massive volume on the exchanges.

[tracer]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

One has nothing to do with the other.

So what if penny investors taking a run on coins and other things made of gold. "Tickle me Elmos" might become in short supply too if some host shows them on TV and says they are way cool.

People are willing to pay 10-20% over the spot price of gold. I call that a mania.

i don't think so. check out the world gold council report:

http://www.research.gold.org/supply_demand/

demand was 3400 tons in 2006, 3500 tons in 2007, 2650 tons so far this year. with gold production at 2500 tons per year, and gold production declining without the credit crunch, and now mines closing due to financing issues and new projects being shelved, the shortage goes far beyond penny investors.

also, while rumours abound of 'breaking the comex', which they won't, there is still 12000 contracts demanding delivery for december doesn't tell me it's penny investors.

the shortage and demand are both real, and we haven't even gotten to the ugly part of the downturn.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Why isn't Gold still getting Arse rapped?

Ed, this chart tells me that crude is a better investment at this point.

The rule of thumb is the "10 to 1" ratio, hence crude says now that gold should be $420/oz (USD).

I don't believe gold is cheap; far from it.

But I do believe crude is greatly attractive at this point.

[rabot10]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

Becouse Gold sucks for now nuf said. Any other questions?

[jtabeb]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

I've stopped feeling doubt about the eventual outcome

-- now I will have to supply by intellectual rigor the doubt that I had previously felt subjectively. It is a very strange (and probably dangerous) thing to feel a lack of doubt, where finance is concerned.

Perhaps this means I have now been subjected to so many pro-gold arguments that the sheer volume has overcome my critical faculty.

R.E. "I've stopped feeling doubt about the eventual outcome "

Got to that point around mid 2005. I had to sit my wife down and tell her everything that I thought was going to happen. I had to have a witness so that I could prove to myself that I wasn't being delusiaonal. I've been going on for three years like this ( at least a thousand hours of reading and research).

As you know, you bump into a buddy all the time in the military. I keep running into guys from assignments three years ago and it is DOWNRIGHT strange when the walk up to point-blank and the very first thing they say is, "man, you called it dude, wished I'd listened to you back then".

R.E. "-- now I will have to supply by intellectual rigor the doubt that I had previously felt subjectively. It is a very strange (and probably dangerous) thing to feel a lack of doubt, where finance is concerned."

I got out of that rut about a year ago, it will pass in phase three

R.E. "Perhaps this means I have now been subjected to so many pro-gold arguments that the sheer volume has overcome my critical faculty."

This is phase 2.5 of Goldbug fever. I call this phase "false doubt".

Phase three comes next when you realize that the false doubts you created in phase 2.5 were merely intelluctual constructs to fill a void due to total absence of ANY countervailing arguments. It's when you consciously (vs unconsciencely earlier) accept the validity of your conclusions.

I will admit I am open to the possiblity of being wrong, but so far I have not seen a single convincing argument as to why the conclusion I've drawn is incorrect.

I know that sounds REALLY pompous, but that's honestly where I'm at.

Welcome to wonderland ASH. It's a strange magical place that keeps getting curiouser and curiouser.

V/R

JT

[hoodoo]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

Curious - was your wife receptive to the information you shared? You didn't mention anything about divorce

I've tried the same but she doesn't share my perspective. She's one of the "everying will be all right" and "when the market comes back in the next couple of years" types. Fortunately, she hasn't argued with me about making major changes to our portfilio. But she thinks I'm a crazy pessimist and thinks that iTulip counts as a "fringe" internet site.

Hoo

Got to that point around mid 2005. I had to sit my wife down and tell her everything that I thought was going to happen. I had to have a witness so that I could prove to myself that I wasn't being delusiaonal. I've been going on for three years like this ( at least a thousand hours of reading and research).

As you know, you bump into a buddy all the time in the military. I keep running into guys from assignments three years ago and it is DOWNRIGHT strange when the walk up to point-blank and the very first thing they say is, "man, you called it dude, wished I'd listened to you back then".

[LargoWinch]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

Rick, if I may ask, at what point gold stops "sucking"?

More importantly, what will be the price of crude at that point?

I say with crude near $40 and gold at $755: buy crude.

[Jay]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

Curious - was your wife receptive to the information you shared? You didn't mention anything about divorce

I've tried the same but she doesn't share my perspective. She's one of the "everying will be all right" and "when the market comes back in the next couple of years" types. Fortunately, she hasn't argued with me about making major changes to our portfilio. But she thinks I'm a crazy pessimist and thinks that iTulip counts as a "fringe" internet site.

Hoo

Mine says I'm too negative and spend too much time on the internet. She's slowly coming around, however, as many of the decisions I have made have been right. Being a renter with two young kids instead of having the "security" of our own home caused a lot of friction between us. She has finally changed her mind on that one. The gold coins that show up in the mail she doesn't understand at all, and that doesn't even begin to get into any of the other "defensive" things I have purchased. ;)

[jtabeb]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

Curious - was your wife receptive to the information you shared? You didn't mention anything about divorce

I've tried the same but she doesn't share my perspective. She's one of the "everying will be all right" and "when the market comes back in the next couple of years" types. Fortunately, she hasn't argued with me about making major changes to our portfilio. But she thinks I'm a crazy pessimist and thinks that iTulip counts as a "fringe" internet site.

Hoo

Not divorced yet, luckily. Had to lay down the law a couple of times (unilateral investment decisions that were unpopular at the time with a certain significant other).

I would say my wife is similar.

I would sum it up by saying she partially understands what I think I know, but she doesn't comprehend the depth of what she doesn't understand.
She seems to want to have a say in the decision making part of investing and thinks that it should be a consensus decision with out understanding that A LACK of understanding the dynamics at play makes her inputs limiting at best and harmful at worst. That's the frustrating part.

Your wife should talk to my wife so they could comiserate about their husbands that don't take their inputs on finanancial matters seriously enough.

[metalman]

Re: Why is Gold still getting Arse rapped?

Becouse Gold sucks for now nuf said. Any other questions?

it's funny but everyone who is bitching about gold down 23% when the stocks are down 40% and oil 70%... when the inflation shit hits the fan and you all learn just why gold is hard to buy now? i can just hear the bitching... why did you warn us! we wish we had more gold but now we can't buy it. boo hoo!