Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

[Sapiens]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5284173.ece

Israel is drawing up plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and is prepared to launch a strike without backing from the US, it has been reported.

Officials in the Israeli Defence Ministry told the Jerusalem Post that while they prefer to act in consultation with the US, they were preparing plans that would allow them to act in isolation.

"It is always better to coordinate," a senior Defence Ministry official told the newspaper. "But we are also preparing options that do not include coordination."

However defence officials played down the reports today, telling The Times that an attack by Israeli forces alone would probably fail to take out all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, which experts say are scattered across several sites, some deep underground.

“We could not risk an operation which would only partially succeed," one defence official told The Times.

"That would leave us open to a nuclear attack from Iran’s remaining weapons stock. Israel would likely need the support, the backing, of forces from a Western ally to successfully carry out the operation,” he said.

...

[DToM67]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

Warning - long sarcastic analogous scenario ahead

No guns for you! you can only have knives. Why? Well... uh, we don't feel we can trust you. Gun ownership is a lot of responsibility & we're not sure your up to it.

Oh... and our buddy in that little house 2 doors away from you definitely doesn't trust you. He & us, we're bro's, so we've got his back. He says if you owned guns he believes you'd shoot him & his family. Sure... we know you and our buddy don't like each other. And sure, he's got guns coming out his ass and he likes to talk trash about you: pop a cap in your ass if you ever get in his face... But he's a little guy & he's paranoid... this 'hood is tough.

What's that you say? His & our gun ownership (while you only have knives) makes you nervous? Especially since we & our posse broke into your next-door-neighbor's house...? You say we capped the dude, wrecked the place, started emptying his vault & have yet to leave?

Well... we knew your next-door neighbor for a long time & yeah we used to hang out, we even traded him some of our old used guns. But he turned out to be a bad apple. Then, a few years back we had a falling out with him. Didn't the two of you used to squabble all the time? You should be happy he's gone!

Back when it all went South we asked your next-door neighbor if he still had the guns he'd gotten from us - we wanted them back. He said no, but we didn't believe him. Our posse figured he was hiding them somewhere in his place, so we had to break in there to be sure for ourselves... gotta break a few eggs to make an omelet, ya know... As it turns out we didn't find any guns. But it was worth it. He was a bad dude, we should know... and we can all feel much better now that he's gone.

So you see... as long as you are a good neighbor: don't have a falling out with us & don't make us or our buddy nervous with guns you're cool.... That, and don't try selling your oil in Euros, Yen or any other non-USD currency.;)

As someone who believes strongly in the 2nd amendment I have to wonder how anyone in America can't understand why Iran a) doesn't trust us or Israel & b) wants nuclear power/weapons. Anyone of us in their shoes would be VERY nervous! Israel might be nervous too, but there are other solutions that would engender peaceful cohabitation in the middle-East.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

DTo

Every nation in the world has a right to nuclear energy. Where Iran started going off track was the program to process their own uranium. As per UN rules, only a handful of nations have the legal right to process uranium, the rest have to buy it from the processing nations.

Second, As Iran insists on continuously threatening one's neighbors with total destruction, it does not engender good feelings if you know what I mean.

If I were an outlaw nation with a pocket full of UN speeding tickets, yeah, I'd be nervous too. But it is actually the Arab neighbors in the region that are more nervous about a belligerent Iran.

Bottom line is that there is no way, no how, Israel or the US or anyone else is going to take out Iranian nuclear processing facilities. there are too many of them and they are too well hardened. Ditto for any potential invasion.

As for no guns found in the next door neighbors house. You may want to check out this link


The Iraqi government released 550 tons of processed uranium in July to the Canadian mining company, Cameco. The article from the Middle East Times says the uranium was discovered by US troops after the invasion but doesn't not say exactly when.

http://www.metimes.com/Politics/2008...to_canada/afp/

Given that there was so much opposition to the invasion of Iraq and that opponents vilified the Bush administration for invading without cause, ("Bush lied, people died", etc.) One has to ask, why was this crucial smoking gun held back from publication for so long? And since this discovery validates the reason for the invasion and discredits so many war opponents, why, when it was finally released, that it earned barely a mention in the US media?

[ASH]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

Bottom line is that there is no way, no how, Israel or the US or anyone else is going to take out Iranian nuclear processing facilities. there are too many of them and they are too well hardened.

I don't think this is exactly true. The research facilities are dispersed, but the industrial scale enrichment facilities are not. Neither is it clear that they are too well hardened.

From a prior post to WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf:

This link has some information on the main enrichment facility at Natanz, which is the facility that Israel and the United States are most concerned about.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran -- an exile group -- revealed the existence of a secret nuclear facility at Natanz at a press conference in 2002. The International Atomic Energy Agency has visited the site more than once since its existence was revealed, and the NCRI turned out to be correct about the nature of the facility.

The NCRI claims that the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) complex is built 8 meters-deep into the ground and protected by a concrete wall 2.5 meters thick, itself protected by another concrete wall. The construction of the enrichment complex was watched by satellites, and it is believed that by mid-2004 the Natanz centrifuge facility was hardened with a roof of several meters of reinforced concrete and buried under a layer of earth some 75 feet deep.

So, we're talking more like 25-30 meters or soil plus a thick concrete roof, rather than 1 km. Even so, that's at the outside range of what a conventional bunker-buster bomb can do. Supposedly, the new massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) can penetrate up to 200 feet of soil (60 meters) before punching through a concrete roof but some analysts say this soil penetration estimate is optimistic. More importantly, the MOP is too big for tactical aircraft to carry, and I don't think Israel has any strategic bombers. To the best of my knowledge, the only bunker-buster that Israel has is the GBU-28, which should be able to penetrate 30 meters of soil and 6 meters of concrete.

So... my guess is that Israel thinks it can get the job done with the GBU-28, and Uncle Sam is planning to try the MOP later if Israel doesn't succeed.

The other thing about underground facilities is that it might be sufficient to collapse access tunnels and severe power/air feeds, even if the bombs cannot penetrate deeply enough to collapse the working spaces themselves.

An Israeli airstrike is not a permanent solution because Iran could reconstitute its work, but neither is it a non-starter, IMO. Also, I don't think the industrial-scale enrichment facilities can actually be dispersed effectively without enormous cost inefficiency. You need a lot of centrifuges, and you need to cascade them, and there would be an awful lot of overhead if you divided up your enrichment facility too much.

[D-Mack]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

A war with Iran would probably bring the oil price up, not a good move if you have Russia under control and bleeding with oil under 50.

I think the US will prevent it

[ASH]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

A war with Iran would probably bring the oil price up, not a good move if you have Russia under control and bleeding with oil under 50.

I think the US will prevent it

That, sir, is an excellent point.

However, at issue is whether Israel regards Iran as an existential -- and un-deterable -- threat. If that is the case, then the United States probably lacks the ability to prevent a unilateral strike by Israel.

[grizam303]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

Since Israel will likely be the aggressor, shouldn't the US be trying to protect Iran?








I hope someone got a laugh out of that.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

A war with Iran would probably bring the oil price up, not a good move if you have Russia under control and bleeding with oil under 50.

I think the US will prevent it

Indeed,

And that leads us to look at things in the larger global context. The war in Iraq (which we won about 6 months ago, incidentally) has fundamentally changed the psychology of the region. While Iran is the supporter of various extremist groups in the region, we have been able to marginalize them and can now rely on diplomatic and economic means to achieve further goals.

Many analysts point out that high oil prices create an environment conducive to the rise of dictators and mischief makers in oil producing countries (Chavez and Ahmedinejad) Low oil prices force the government to concentrate on more positive economic and political ventures. Some say it was low oil prices that helped push the Soviet economy into perestroika.

High oil prices were a double edge sword for Iran. Since they have such a large population compared to the Saudi's, their oil revenue doesn't go as far. In addition since they have so little refining capacity and have to import the finished product, high oil prices are probably a net negative for Iran.


Mr. A of Iran was a feckless leader and his reign has not been terribly good for Iran. The Iranian economy is in trouble and the Mullahs are getting increasingly uncomfortable with Ahmadinejads handling of the ship of state. Expect to see a moderate replacement sometime this year. This moderate will be selected to reflect the realities in the region, i.e. all of their neighbors solidly allied with the US. The only "friends" the Iranians have are the Russians and Venezuelans. Not exactly the most reliable people to form a coalition with, especially given the price of oil.

Which brings me back to my main point. All the geopolitical and economic forces indicate that there will be no invasion of Iran. We will achieve all of our goals there through diplomatic means.

[c1ue]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

The commentary here has been interesting, but I see a notable lack of mention of 1 major point: Iraq.

A economically declining Iran has much less reason to play nice.

A supposed 'oil squeeze' on Iran would leave them with nothing to lose. And some of the ways they can play: Destabilize Iraq (again). Muck around with Pakistan/Afghanistan. Buy more missiles from China/Russia. Restart supplying the Palestinian organization du decade.

From my view - the oil price dynamic we're seeing is the double whammy of world recession multiplied by the deleveraging process as the US financial pyramid collapses. Oil prices that are too low are not good for anyone - but it won't be Russia that suffers the most.

Russia has one of the higher assumed oil prices/barrel, but it also has large reserves. Only if oil prices stay at present levels for several years will it be a problem. You could say that Putin is also betting on inflation in the world

Nigeria, on the other hand, has all of $60B in reserves and had to cut oil price from $62.5 to $45.

Venezuela, in contrast, raised from $35/barrel to $60/barrel, but that is because Chavez was using the previous difference to fund off balance sheet activities. Now he's got to officially spend more on the internal Venezuela economy.

[D-Mack]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

That, sir, is an excellent point.

However, at issue is whether Israel regards Iran as an existential -- and un-deterable -- threat. If that is the case, then the United States probably lacks the ability to prevent a unilateral strike by Israel.

Well and the foreign policy in recent years hasn't been very rational

Although people like Ron Paul have expressed that the US is calling the shots. We will see what happens.....

Paul: US would back Israeli strike on Iran
Mon, 28 Jul 2008 22:40:24 GMT


US congressman Ron Paul

Former US presidential candidate Ron Paul says should there be an Israeli strike on Iran over its nuclear work, it would not be unilateral.

The Texas congressman told Press TV that there is no 'such thing as independent Israel doing anything', dismissing speculation that the world may witness unilateral Israeli bombardments of Iranian nuclear sites.

"No matter what they do, it is our money, it is our weapons, and they are not going to do it without us approving it," said the 72-year-old Republican.

...

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id...onid=351020104

I bet some circles in Israel are ready and waiting, seeing it as a last chance before the new administration.

Iran deploys 60-ship armada for massive war readiness maneuver


December 4, 2008, 1:53 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran flexes naval muscles - Dec. 2008

Wednesday, Dec. 3, the Iranian navy and air force began a six-day maneuver of marine and air might which Tehran radio said would cover an area of 50,000 square miles of the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has threatened to block the narrow strait if attacked. Admiral Qasem Rostamabadi said its aim is to "increase the level of readiness of Iran's naval forces and test domestically-made naval weaponry."

This is stage two of a larger exercise dubbed Unity-87, DEBKAfile's military sources report.

Air strikes against "which sank big enemy vessels" were said to be part of the war game, a clear reference to American air carriers, three of which are now present in waters opposite Iran. Iranian Navy chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari boasted Wednesday: "Iran has pushed back the frontiers of naval capabilities to become the decisive maritime force in the region."

DEBKAfile's Iranian sources report that the exercise is part of Tehran's preparations for a US and/or Israeli attack on its nuclear installations and Revolutionary Guards bases which its political, military and intelligence strategists are convinced is on the way ahead of Barak Obama's January 21 inauguration as US president.

...

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5755

[seanm123]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5284173.ece

I don't think they are going to get the IFF codes to fly through Iraq Airspace or the midair refueling they need, after all Gates has a job with Obama now and it would be a one way mission without US help.

The old plan was to launch from Georgia, with the Russian invasion those airfields are no longer available.

[D-Mack]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

I don't think they are going to get the IFF codes to fly through Iraq Airspace or the midair refueling they need, after all Gates has a job with Obama now and it would be a one way mission without US help.

The old plan was to launch from Georgia, with the Russian invasion those airfields are no longer available.

Hate to bring this old forum thread up again, but look who is talking to haaretz

Last update - 22:04 08/12/2008


Zbigniew Brzezinski: Israel's push for Iran strike may hurt U.S. ties

By Natasha Mozgovaya, Haaretz U.S. Correspondent

Tags: Barack Obama, Israel News

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, said in an interview with Haaretz over the weekend that Israel will do harm to its relations with the United States if it insists on lobbying Washington for an American military strike on Iran.

Brzezinski was at the center of a controversy during much of the United States presidential campaign when Jewish opponents of president-elect Barack Obama sent out mass emails calling the former U.S. president's aide anti-Israel, and saying he was one of the Illinois senator's key advisors on foreign policy.

The Obama campaign denied that Brzezinski and other figures like Bill Clinton's former advisor Robert Malley with dovish positions on the Israel-Palestinian question were among his Middle East advisors.

Brzezinski told Haaretz: "One [piece of] advice that I would give the Israeli government is not to engage in this campaign for an American attack on Iran, because I don't think America is going to attack Iran, and if it did, and the consequences would be disastrous."

...

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1044635.html

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

Hate to bring this old forum thread up again, but look who is talking to haaretz

Last update - 22:04 08/12/2008


Zbigniew Brzezinski: Israel's push for Iran strike may hurt U.S. ties

By Natasha Mozgovaya, Haaretz U.S. Correspondent

Tags: Barack Obama, Israel News

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, said in an interview with Haaretz over the weekend that Israel will do harm to its relations with the United States if it insists on lobbying Washington for an American military strike on Iran.

Brzezinski told Haaretz: "One [piece of] advice that I would give the Israeli government is not to engage in this campaign for an American attack on Iran, because I don't think America is going to attack Iran, and if it did, and the consequences would be disastrous."

...

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1044635.html

Right. And as Seanm infers. If the US really didn't want the Israeli's to do it, it wouldn't even be a one way mission. The Israeli strike package wouldn't make it halfway to Iran before the US intervened.

Now, if the Iranians want to do something stupid like engage Arab/US interests in the Gulf with conventional forces, the US would certainly obliterate the Iranian task force.

This is going to be like with the Cold War; lots of saber rattling and some military engagement among surrogates but no major shooting between the two main parties.

[due_indigence]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

It's one thing to attack without the US' explicit support (highly dubious in and of itself), but to go in without the financial backing of Madoff and Fuld....now that's chutzpah.

[tree]

Re: Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

If there's an attack on Iran, I'm pointing the car toward Richmond (from D.C.) and staying there three days or so. I'm getting the car trunk ready now. :eek: