Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

[sishya]

Marc is telling to exit stocks early next year.
His outlook for 2009 -
Long Gold, Long Gold Miners, Short commodities, Short Dollar, Long some corporate bonds.

He does not trust Gold ETF's, US Govt may confiscate Gold.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HKN-A0EqyA

[D-Mack]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009








In this Dec video he also mentions that China is a mess

[rtchoke]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

At the end of the video, he said " .....You can trade this rally here in Index futures, ETF's, Physical commodities, precious metals, and so forth, but at some point in jan to march of next year you have to get out because the global economy is imploding.....".

Does his reference to precious metals refer strictly to precious metals traded via ETF's you think? Or precious metals altogether? At the beginning he does say Gold and Gold Miners are attractive, but then he finishes with the above statement saying to get out of everything he just listed which would include precious metals. If I were to be out of what he listed, I would be in cash of some sort....

[Guest]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

Yes and we might note the point that Faber reiterates that an extended and complex rally is indeed now due, and in fact well overdue.

[icm63]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

GOING LONG anything other $USD in this period of LIQUIDATION is not a risk to be taken easily.

[solotar]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

Faber says physical gold overseas. How do I, as a California resident, best do that? It seems as if the iT crowd splits between BV and PM. I'm a little slower than most, so please dumb down your good advice here. Have BV experiences been good ones? Thanks.

[Guest]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

ICM63 - I fully agree with you. I am only examining this juncture carefully as an exit window from a single long position I seek to lighten up on (I was far too long PM's, particularly in currently disastrous silver). The partially conservative strategy is to lay in new short positions later into the plausible upcoming rally, to ride the larger trend down as the rally breaks down into the next major downleg. The most conservative position is to do nothing (stay in USD cash) and then find something to get out of that cash into sometime in the 1st or 2nd QTR of 2009.

I am heavily long metals which is my mistake, and looking for an opportunity to lighten up. I also happen to believe that after a weak USD interlude in the middle of 2009, we will see yet another dollar upleg thereafter. I think inflation hedge money will be dead money for the next couple of years at least in the broadest market sense. Of course thereafter inflation will be uncontrollable worldwide, but maybe not for a good long while yet.

GOING LONG anything other $USD in this period of LIQUIDATION is not a risk to be taken easily.

[grapejelly]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

ICM63 - I fully agree with you. I am only examining this juncture carefully as an exit window from a single long position I seek to lighten up on (I was far too long PM's, particularly in currently disastrous silver). The partially conservative strategy is to lay in new short positions later into the plausible upcoming rally, to ride the larger trend down as the rally breaks down into the next major downleg. The most conservative position is to do nothing (stay in USD cash) and then find something to get out of that cash into sometime in the 1st or 2nd QTR of 2009.

I am heavily long metals which is my mistake, and looking for an opportunity to lighten up. I also happen to believe that after a weak USD interlude in the middle of 2009, we will see yet another dollar upleg thereafter. I think inflation hedge money will be dead money for the next couple of years at least in the broadest market sense. Of course thereafter inflation will be uncontrollable worldwide, but maybe not for a good long while yet.

well you could be right or you could be wrong. I don't see how you can be confident you are right.

I am not selling any of my PMs. I expect that the PM bull market is still intact and we will be into another upleg very soon. This is just a correction we are in. The current environment is very bullish for gold as soon as the deleveraging that is taking place now starts to wane.

Since they are putting trillions into it, I expect in 6 months gold and silver will start looking very good. Silver lags gold but then outperforms it towards the end of each upleg.

[grizam303]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

Faber says physical gold overseas. How do I, as a California resident, best do that? It seems as if the iT crowd splits between BV and PM. I'm a little slower than most, so please dumb down your good advice here. Have BV experiences been good ones? Thanks.

5th amendment, 4th amendment, 2nd amendment.

I keep gold in the US, and that's what's gonna keep it there.

But since they've done away with the 2nd where you live, I'd just make sure whichever place you go with, make sure it's in an allocated account (as opposed to unallocated/pool accounts).

[ljaycox]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

Yes and we might note the point that Faber reiterates that an extended and complex rally is indeed now due, and in fact well overdue.

I also saw a video where he said that if there is no rally from here--very bad situation economically. He said that a market this oversold that cannot rally is a sign of collapse.

[Guest]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

Grapejelly -

Uhm ... Well, I think I currently own more bullion even than you! Got to lighten up on all this ballast I'm carrying around. I'm rigged for inflation armageddon, and "armageddon tired" of owning quite so much of this metal.

well you could be right or you could be wrong. I don't see how you can be confident you are right.

I am not selling any of my PMs. I expect that the PM bull market is still intact and we will be into another upleg very soon. This is just a correction we are in. The current environment is very bullish for gold as soon as the deleveraging that is taking place now starts to wane.

Since they are putting trillions into it, I expect in 6 months gold and silver will start looking very good. Silver lags gold but then outperforms it towards the end of each upleg.

[Guest]

Re: Marc Faber latest video - Dire forecast 2009

ljaycox -

Yes, you've got a really serious point. That is also possible, and if we see markets plunge on down from here we have *total collapse* developing, or at any rate a sort of collapse which has no parallel in 300 years of market history (means it's the once in 500 years ugliest bear market). This is the thing that precious metal bulls (I've been one for a long time) don't seem to grasp.

There is a potential it could morph into that. Gold is one thing, but silver, platinum and the commodities can get taken out to the woodshed and summarily decapitated by that degree of collapse - decimated worse even than they are now. My guess is the odds are skewed 75% or better for a really significant complex rally to start right about now. Then if this decline were not complete here (possible and even likely?) there would have to be another leg down in 1st or 2nd QTR 2009, to really get all the last longs in the markets thoroughly masticated and chewed up into a pliable pulp, before we hit the bottom.

EJ and iTulip had some DOW or S&P trajectories tracing down in varying fan arc degrees for possible paths. The more gradual required a 3-4 year bear market. But the point here is that this bear market is tracing out an abbreviated collapse even shorter than their shortest scenario. You can't have this kind of declining speed persist for very long. It becomes highly implausible that the DOW collapses for example to 3000 or 4000 within this year's or next year's market collapsing event - so the speed of this collapse is suggesting that the bear market has an end to it that's possibly closer by than the 4 year scenarios iTulip were hypothesizing a year or two ago.

I also saw a video where he said that if there is no rally from here--very bad situation economically. He said that a market this oversold that cannot rally is a sign of collapse.