Gold and silver default countdown:

[Honzajs119]

Available here:
http://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/20...mex-countdown/

[grizam303]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

What an awesome link. I was wondering if there was anything like this earlier today.

Bookmarked for sure; I'll be checking this daily.

[pwcmba]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

This page looks too simplistic for my taste. Are they netting retenders? Are they looking at any exchanges other than COMEX? I have personally taken delivery of hundreds of thousands of dollars of gold futures (my clearing firm was kind enough to lend me the dough overnight) only to retender the next day into different size contracts. For example buying 3 kilos and selling the 100oz contract. I think the key to this whole notion of breaking the COMEX is the withdrawals. As Jim Sinclair says "Taking delivery is one thing, but leaving the delivery at the COMEX is another."

http://www.jsmineset.com/

[rabot10]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

Sorry I have stopped drinking the Koolaid - for now - might change mid next year jmho

[Mega]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

Same here Rick!
Mike

[icm63]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

How can I see audited comex physical gold/silver stocks levels.

How does one prove these numbers shown in the charts.

Like anything trends can change.

And if they are real numbers, expect immediate lower prices in gold/silver as comex traders push prices down to deter those from buying, and try and force weak holders of comex gold paper to sell.

[Spartacus]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

How can I see audited comex physical gold/silver stocks levels.

How does one prove these numbers shown in the charts.

Like anything trends can change.

And if they are real numbers, expect immediate lower prices in gold/silver as comex traders push prices down to deter those from buying, and try and force weak holders of comex gold paper to sell.

Lower prices are THE REASON for large withdrawals from COMEX. That's the point. Current deliveries / withdrawals / switching of metal to COMEX forms that are ineligible for delivery (so the COMEX warehouses are acting as a safe deposit box, but that Silver may not be used for deliveries) are siupposedly running at record levels, SPECIFICALLY BECAUSE paper Gold/Silver are way undervalued.

People may be trying to play the physical to paper arbitrage (someone wants to make coins & sell them for a couple of % higher).

Maybe someone really entrepreneurial is going to counterfeit Maples & Eagles to capture the really big premium.

In other words, if the alleged criminals try to lower the prices for their own benefit, the COMEX will be in a worse situation. If the the CFTC/CRIMEX are members of the groups allegedly doing the manipulation, or they are agents or simply aiders & abetters of the alleged manipulators they'll be shooting themselves in the foot.

[FRED]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

There are a lot of reputations on the line with this COMEX default theory. We don't know enough about it to offer an opinion.

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

There are a lot of reputations on the line with this COMEX default theory. We don't know enough about it to offer an opinion.

Still 40% of deliverable gold gone and 30% of deliverable silver gone is IMPRESSIVE. And, with 25 days still to go, this is one thing that will be worth watching. (Oregon State Vs Oregon game was not, unfortunately. Except for those darn DUCK fans:p)

[Charles Mackay]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

There are a lot of reputations on the line with this COMEX default theory. We don't know enough about it to offer an opinion.

There has been a sudden recognition that you can make a fortune arb'ing the true cash market to JP Morgans short Comex position. Pundits are then jumping on that movement as a way to break the Comex.

What is really significant is that normally metal would have come back onto the exchange in a severe break like this but instead the demand increased as prices fell. This is the thing that really caught JPM and the exchange flat footed.

The arbitrage will continue until the comex price comes up to the cash market. Not the other way around, because the cash market is the true market.

[Spartacus]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

Have you seen any indication that there's any arbitrage opportunity on 1,000 oz bars?

I'm tentatively concluding that COMEX related companies are contractually required to sell these at the COMEX price, and there will be no premium on the 1,000 oz bars until COMEX and its contractually obligated parties are substantially out of metal.

I also expect COMEX to play some dirty tricks before that happens. Yes, I consider cash settlement a dirty trick.

There has been a sudden recognition that you can make a fortune arb'ing the true cash market to JP Morgans short Comex position. Pundits are then jumping on that movement as a way to break the Comex.

What is really significant is that normally metal would have come back onto the exchange in a severe break like this but instead the demand increased as prices fell. This is the thing that really caught JPM and the exchange flat footed.

The arbitrage will continue until the comex price comes up to the cash market. Not the other way around, because the cash market is the true market.

[Charles Mackay]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

Have you seen any indication that there's any arbitrage opportunity on 1,000 oz bars?

I'm tentatively concluding that COMEX related companies are contractually required to sell these at the COMEX price, and there will be no premium on the 1,000 oz bars until COMEX and its contractually obligated parties are substantially out of metal.

I also expect COMEX to play some dirty tricks before that happens. Yes, I consider cash settlement a dirty trick.

Selling your eagles that you've been holding for the last 5 years and taking delivery of bars is the best way!!!

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

I think that there will be a default, but it will be a none issue. a few years ago there was a nickle default on the London Metals Exchange:

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1156198042.php

There didn't seem to be any appreciable fall out from the default, and these customer really need the metal. No dramatic arrests on the exchange floor, no noticeable impact on the exchange. Why would silver or gold be any different?

[Spartacus]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

I've always wondered about that. Where were the lawsuits?

I occasionally ran google searches to find out if anyone had paid any price.

Nil. Nada. No one else even called it a default, even though that's what it was.

Par for the course, though. When the Tokyo exchange ran out of Palladium (1998, I think), defaulted and sent the world prices skyrocketing (Ford tried to stockpile at exactly the WRONG time) there was nary a peep out of most of the world. I can't remember it at all.

It may be different here, because Gold and to a lesser extent Silver have higher public profile.

AND the US is a lot more litigious than Europe & Asia.

We'll see. If there is a default, and if anyone pays for the alleged crimes.

I think that there will be a default, but it will be a none issue. a few years ago there was a nickle default on the London Metals Exchange:

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1156198042.php

There didn't seem to be any appreciable fall out from the default, and these customer really need the metal. No dramatic arrests on the exchange floor, no noticeable impact on the exchange. Why would silver or gold be any different?

[tracer]

Re: Gold and silver default countdown:

i think that jim sinclair has clarified his 'busting' comex statement. the idea, as i understand it is to take physical delivery from the comex. this will take away the shorts ability ( the banks ) to drive the price lower, flush out the longs, and cover, doing it over and over again. they will find, if when they drive the price down that deliveries are called, they don't have free reign to short with impunity.

after all, the banks know the value of gold as well as any small investor, they just know how to trade it, make money and not lose it. maybe these deliveries will sting enough to make them pause.

as an fyi, i haven't verified, but from another site, they indicate that 2005 drew far more gold out of the comex. further, i believe that december is usually the largest month for deliveries.

i have quit drinking the koolaid, although i have quite a few packs sitting in my safe deposit box .... oh yeah!!!