What is the business risk of predicting recession?

[blazespinnaker]

Pimco paul made a statement that Wall Street isn't predicting recession because of the business risk of doing so.

Other than the obvious arguments about how being a wrong cynic is worse than being a wrong optimist, does anything know what Pimco Paul is talking about?

I have a hunch that he's right, I'm just not entirely clear if it is a political matter or something else.

[Finster]

Re: What is the business risk of predicting recession?

Pimco paul made a statement that Wall Street isn't predicting recession because of the business risk of doing so.

Other than the obvious arguments about how being a wrong cynic is worse than being a wrong optimist, does anything know what Pimco Paul is talking about?

I have a hunch that he's right, I'm just not entirely clear if it is a political matter or something else.

He's probably referring to Wall Street being in the business of selling stocks. Predict recession, sell less stock.

On the other hand, the business that "Pimco Paul" is in sells bonds. Predict recession, sell more bonds.

Now that might be a little unfair to "Pimco Paul", who strikes me as a straight-shooting calls-it-as-he-sees-it type. My only real complaint with him is like most of the guys in his field, he's a Keynesian-Phillips-Curve-NAIRU-type, too. And he's been arguing for more ease from what impresses me as an already inflationary Fed. I simply don't buy the print-more-money-and-we'll-all-be-richer assumption.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: What is the business risk of predicting recession?

I totally agree, I think Pimco has an obsolete world view. They're casually talking about fed easing when the world is flushed with massive liquidity and hardly ever mentioning the dangers of ka-poom.

I guess predicting ka-poom is a business risk for pimco