I feel like we've hit the bottom..

[grizam303]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

An emotional relief rally. Markets are irrational. And there are always corrections. We've had a HUGE move without a serious correction (on the upside.)

Fundamentals have NOTHING to do with shorter term moves like this.

Fair enough. I'll concede to that. I mistook your "market rally" for something more than a dead cat bounce. I do agree that a dead cat bounce is likely in order. I guess even dead cats have to bounce on something, right?

"Dead cat bounce" is my favorite investment metaphor.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

The only bottom that will get hit here is you a*** as it gets spanked. I say equities should go down another 50% from here (barring a hyperinflationary event first, in which case you would not be wanting equities).

Perhaps I should have said "I feel like we've hit the bottom in commodities", because that was what I meant.

I think everyone is expecting inflation at this point. Further deflation seems very improbable given the headlines I mentioned above.

Cash is now officially trash.

[dtimwinn]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

If "cash is now thrash" where is the cash to be invested. I believe inflation is coming on a large scale, but I also think that will not occur for some time. If that is correct, where to put the cash for now?

[grizam303]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

If "cash is now thrash" where is the cash to be invested. I believe inflation is coming on a large scale, but I also think that will not occur for some time. If that is correct, where to put the cash for now?

If you think inflation will not occur for some time, then you might as well buy some CDs for now.

[jk]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

ent

Perhaps I should have said "I feel like we've hit the bottom in commodities", because that was what I meant.

I think everyone is expecting inflation at this point. Further deflation seems very improbable given the headlines I mentioned above.

Cash is now officially trash.

i think we'll have another deflation scare next year when the obama stimulus doesn't prevent spiking unemployment. but for now the inflationary scenario rules the day.

[GRG55]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

ent
i think we'll have another deflation scare next year when the obama stimulus doesn't prevent spiking unemployment. but for now the inflationary scenario rules the day.

Wow. Two days up. Oil stops "crashing". Gold manages to struggle above $800. $20 B's into Citi.

The dead cat bounce is the most anticipated and expected event, barring Thanksgiving. Does that mean it becomes a self-fulfilling process? Or never actually happens, because so many of those expecting it start fading it as soon as it attempts ignition?

According to Bloomberg the VIX closed at 64.70 today. Yes, it declined 10% during the session, but as long as the VIX remains at such an ethereal level I would think the risk of Jim Nickerson's scenario/recent experience being repeated [up, down, up, down every few days] is rather elevated.

Great for nimble traders. Crap for investors.

[walenk]

I will gladly pay you Tuesday...

...with an FDIC-backed bond (ala Goldman) for a hamburger today.
"Stuff" may have hit a relative bottom compared to Wimpy IOUs.
Careful what you wish for.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

Wow. Two days up. Oil stops "crashing". Gold manages to struggle above $800. $20 B's into Citi.

The dead cat bounce is the most anticipated and expected event, barring Thanksgiving. Does that mean it becomes a self-fulfilling process? Or never actually happens, because so many of those expecting it start fading it as soon as it attempts ignition?

According to Bloomberg the VIX closed at 74.60 today. Yes, it declined 10% during the session, but as long as the VIX remains at such an ethereal level I would think the risk of Jim Nickerson's scenario/recent experience being repeated [up, down, up, down every few days] is rather elevated.

Great for nimble traders. Crap for investors.

GRG, I think you "dyslexed" what you heard or saw on Bloomberg. I believe $VIX closed at 64.70. Whatever one uses, the volatility by any measure is still gigantic.

I ran across this on du Plessis site this weekend: Lau-Tzu said: “Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.”

Now don't ask me who the dude Lau-Tzu is/was. He's not in Wikipedia, but I think the saying seems worth remembering.

You are correct, a bounce, which might just be over now if these two days are like the past 6-8 weeks, has certainly been anticipated by a whole lot of writers I have read recently, and I wasn't reading them looking to see what they had to opine about a possible rally.