Unemployment predictions for Ireland

[labasta]

Hello Itulipers. I've actually done a bit of research for a change.

I was a tad worried about the unemployment figures for Oct 2008 in Ireland, so I decided to do some calculations. I've already posted this on the propertypin.com.

I've just calculated the unemployment figures for Ireland for end of December 2009 and beyond. I've taken the large increase from October 2008 as the average increase. This rate may decline or it may increase. At any rate, here are the figures for the unemployed as of Sep/Oct 2008:
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rrent/lreg.pdf

Sep: 244,500
Oct: 260,300

That's an increase of 15,800 or 6.46% (let's say 6.5% for simplicity).

244,500 is 6.3% unemployment. 260,300 is 6.7% seasonally adjusted. See page 4, table 3 below:
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rrent/lreg.pdf

This means that the total figure of employable people, so the government claims, is around 3,885,074.


I've rounded up the fractions after the decimal point.
Ready? Ok, take a deep breath and here we go:

2008
Nov: 277,220
Dec: 295,239

2009
Jan: 314,429
Feb: 334,867
Mar: 356,634
Apr: 379,815
May: 404,503
June: 430,795
July: 458,797
Aug: 488,619
Sep: 520,379
Oct: 554,204
Nov: 590,227
Dec: 628,592


The unemployment rate for end of Dec 2009 would be 16.2%
So in the last quarter 2009, Ireland sees the 80s in fullforce.


It gets worse:

2010
Jan: 669,450
Feb: 712,964
Mar: 759,307
Apr: 808,662
May: 861,225
Jun: 917,205
Jul: 976,823
Aug: 1,040317
Sep: 1,107,937
Oct: 1,179,953
Nov: 1,256,650
Dec: 1,338,332

Unemployment rate at the end of 2010 would be 46.4%

2011
Jan: 1,425,324
Feb: 1,517,970
Mar: 1,616,638
Apr: 1,721,720
May: 1,833,631
Jun: 1,952,817
Jul: 2,079,750
Aug: 2,214,934
Sep: 2,358,905
Oct: 2,513,234
Nov: 2,675,529
Dec: 2,849,438

Unemployment rate at the end of 2011 would be 73.3%


Zimbabwe has 80% unemployment. Irish soceity would collapse sometime in 2010/2011. We would need the red cross at this stage.


Let's hope the October rate is a one off or at least short-lived. Or maybe Brian Cowen (Irish PM) can russle us up another bubble pronto. Let's hope so.

At least this highlights the severity of the situation.

Gulp


Also, I have just heard on the news tonight that the Irish economy has crashed and that 100k people my have already left the country. God knows where.

[ASH]

Re: Unemployment predictions for Ireland

I've just calculated the unemployment figures for Ireland for end of December 2009 and beyond. I've taken the large increase from October 2008 as the average increase. This rate may decline or it may increase.

So are you saying you took a single data point (October's change in employment) and assumed the losses would be the same every month through 2011?

It looks like you are assuming a 6.5% monthly increase in employment. You are multiplying each month's number of unemployed by 1.065, right? Have you given any thought to whether this model makes common sense? You are treating the ranks of the unemployed as something that grows exponentially... like savings at compounding interest. Are you concerned that your estimate for the number of unemployed will exceed the number of Irish if you carry that calculation a bit further forward?

(This is, I hope, a nice way of pointing out that your methodology is not good.)

[labasta]

Re: Unemployment predictions for Ireland

So are you saying you took a single data point (October's change in employment) and assumed the losses would be the same every month through 2011?

It looks like you are assuming a 6.5% monthly increase in employment. You are multiplying each month's number of unemployed by 1.065, right? Have you given any thought to whether this model makes common sense? You are treating the ranks of the unemployed as something that grows exponentially... like savings at compounding interest. Are you concerned that your estimate for the number of unemployed will exceed the number of Irish if you carry that calculation a bit further forward?

(This is, I hope, a nice way of pointing out that your methodology is not good.)

No, the methology is purely an exponential model and nothing more. It isn't based on reality only an assumption. :rolleyes:

I got the shits when I read the October increase and thought if this continues how long can we hold out.

Of course, in reality it bottoms out unless the spiral cannot be stopped. The drop might go on for say three months and then bottom out at a much lower level. Unemployment, I'm sure, is based on real factors not a simplistic statistical model, so apologies if it comes across as based on real factors.


Interesting though, isn't it? ;)

[ASH]

Re: Unemployment predictions for Ireland

No, the methology is purely an exponential model and nothing more. It isn't based on reality only an assumption. :rolleyes:

I got the shits when I read the October increase and thought if this continues how long can we hold out.

Of course, in reality it bottoms out unless the spiral cannot be stopped. The drop might go on for say three months and then bottom out at a much lower level. Unemployment, I'm sure, is based on real factors not a simplistic statistical model, so apologies if it comes across as based on real factors.


Interesting though, isn't it? ;)

Fair enough. I think I'm hyper-sensitive about how numerical estimates are made because I spend a lot of my day estimating stuff for engineering purposes. I agree that the basic message -- rapidly rising unemployment -- is striking.

[labasta]

Re: Unemployment predictions for Ireland

I agree that the basic message -- rapidly rising unemployment -- is striking.

That's exactly what I hoped to demonstrate. If we are really at the beginning of a collapse, it could get bad real fast. Hopefully it won't though.

All us itulipers are guessing at the moment. I've no idea how bad or not-so-bad the situation really is.

Small businesses are really struggling in Ireland at the moment. I hope credit availablitiy increases for them enough to survive in 2009. I have a feeling it won't though.

[grizam303]

Re: Unemployment predictions for Ireland

The real question is what will the unemployment rate be at the end of 2012 or 2013 under your model?

[Chris]

Re: Unemployment predictions for Ireland

Here is a serious question. What counts as unemployed in the official statistics?

Second question; what will count as unemployed in 2 years time?

[don]

Re: Unemployment predictions for Ireland

The way unemployment numbers are hardwired here the longer you're unemployed the more likely you're not counted, ergo a lengthy and deep recession might see relatively flat unemployment, so says the federal wizard.

Hang the wizard