Is it Time to go Long?

[RebbePete]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

I am doing this because I see more chance of an upturn than a downturn at this Juncture at least till next April 2009. I could be wrong and I am ready to take a loss if it happens because I am not leveraged. I am not a Trader, so my knowledge is very limited.

Any one want to comment on their positions.

The biggest nasty surprise to me has been the hits that gold, silver and oil have taken lately, way off from their peaks. That has been where the majority of my losses have occurred. I have a proportionately small (smaller by the day :eek position in some speculative stocks (including junior miners) that are lying twitching and groaning on the floor in a "near death" experience. I also have some SKF, a short fund for financials, which has done very well.

I am thinking of moving cautiously into a couple of individual stocks. I would definitely not move anything into a (long) stock mutual fund right now.


I wouldn't even look at a stock right now unless:

• Positive PE less than 10, preferably less than 8
• The company is funded well enough to last through at least 2009 without any additional funding
• Dividend yield of at least 5%, more than 10% preferable

Stocks that meet these conditions do exist out there, by the way, especially in the energy sector. Even so, I'll put a stop loss order about 5% under the stock price at the time I buy it.

These are still very perilous times. Be prepared for more declines in all asset classes generally until poom catches up to ka.

[sishya]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

For all intents and purposes the stock market crash may just have started and you could see your 401k flushed down the drain in just a few days particularly with a leveraged ETF like UYG.

But regardsless, UYG is a traders tool not an investment tool. It is a great tool for trading intraday or over the cause of multiple days with strong momentum but not for any kind of long term investment. You say you are not leveraged but you are leveraged with this tool. Also you are not diversified with this fund.

UYG is based mostly on swaps in order to seek twice the daily returns of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials index. However twice the daily returns does not become twice the returns over longer periods.

Not a good idea IMHO.

My 401K is moved from cash(MM) into equity Index Fund and Large Cap Value Fund.
Some Personal money are shifted to UYG(10K). Also own Physical Gold.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

I've been waiting, and waiting, and waiting for the proverbial bear market rally so I can put my dying PM stocks out of my misery, and short the DOW before it gets to 6000. The Japanese market might be a good guide here.

[Tulpen]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

I think there is a real possibility we can test the October lows this week.

[c1ue]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

There is actually a significant possibility of a dead cat bounce at the end of the year; my contrarian indicators are showing this.

Purely a relief rally.

I'm not really not sure I want to trade it though.

[Tulpen]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

There is actually a significant possibility of a dead cat bounce at the end of the year; my contrarian indicators are showing this.

Purely a relief rally.

I'm not really not sure I want to trade it though.

Of course with the extreme volatility we have right now anything can happen. But I went in short SP500 heading towards today's open.

[Tulpen]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

But I went in short SP500 heading towards today's open.

Ok, time to cover and go long.

[Idiot Savant]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

I'm not a trader either, but I'm comfortable staying on the short side, even though lots and loads of people seems to think there will be a bear market rally for months to come, in fact the consensus seems so overwhelming that I'm betting it wont happen. Much like the gold rally that never was. My local currency is the Swedish Krona, so my do it a little different. But I'm staying in US T-bills, Yen, Gold, and some small amount of short ETF.

... and really what's this talk about over sold, when you are so sure it will go down eventually?

[metalman]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

So your gold holdings are down 5 pct points then... You sold some gold or that previous 80-20 allocation fluctuated with cash inflow or change in gold prices?

ok just ran the #s.

started off 85/15 cash gold in 2001.

when gold hit $1k i was 40% gold, 60% cash.

gold at $750 i'm at 33% gold, 67% cash.

all in all up 21%, 3.7% compound annual growth over 7 years.

no one talks about this but the s&p has gone friggin nowhere in ten years while gold is up from $300 to $750... the only way to keep up with inflation, it seems.

stocks don't do it.

real estate doesn't do it.

god knows bonds don't.

[Tulpen]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

I went long with UYG at $5.86 yesterday .

UYG is currently trading at $4.73 down about 20% for the day.

[DaveBrown42]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

Any one want to comment on their positions.

I'm in nothing but cash and gold. When DJIA was around 9000 last Thursday I strongly considered buying DXD and holding it until 8000 or 7500. If it gets up that high again I'll definitely pull the trigger. I think the vast majority of people in this market still don't understand how bad things are going to get.

It's important to make clear the distinction between trading and investing. The ProShares Ultra ETFs are only good ideas for short-term trades, IMHO. For long-term investing, I think they are poor choices.

[sishya]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

UYG is currently trading at $4.73 down about 20% for the day.

Yes, definitely a big hair cut.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

Yes, definitely a big hair cut.

You going to double down? ;)

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

There is actually a significant possibility of a dead cat bounce at the end of the year; my contrarian indicators are showing this.

Purely a relief rally.

I'm not really not sure I want to trade it though.

This situation reminds me of May 2007, but it is the opposite. Back then, everyone "knew" the sell in May mantra and shorted stocks. Well, the market did not agree and kept raising despite the subprime meltdown. That created short squeezes and a dramatic top in July, and then the market caught up with selling.

Now, lots of traders positioned themselves for a bounce. Hey, even EJ and Faber mentioned that. Well, there will be a bounce, but not before a huge capitulation. Who knows, maybe the capitulation happened today, maybe not.

[Tulpen]

Re: Is it Time to go Long?

I'm in nothing but cash and gold. When DJIA was around 9000 last Thursday I strongly considered buying DXD and holding it until 8000 or 7500. If it gets up that high again I'll definitely pull the trigger. I think the vast majority of people in this market still don't understand how bad things are going to get.

It's important to make clear the distinction between trading and investing. The ProShares Ultra ETFs are only good ideas for short-term trades, IMHO. For long-term investing, I think they are poor choices.

Went long oil, uranium and gold at the close today.