Bearish Information

[bart]

Re: Bearish Information

This suggests the final lows are not in place yet.

Not only that, but the astrologically based Bradley Siderograph is far from bottoming... :eek: ;)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information

Not only that, but the astrologically based Bradley Siderograph is far from bottoming... :eek: ;)

bart, how is one to interpret your graph? Is is presumed, or predicted by the Bradley Siderograph, that the SPX will/may/should continue its decline into what looks like the last month of this year? Am I interpreting that correctly, or school me?

[bart]

Re: Bearish Information

bart, how is one to interpret your graph? Is is presumed, or predicted by the Bradley Siderograph, that the SPX will/may/should continue its decline into what looks like the last month of this year? Am I interpreting that correctly, or school me?

That's my read Jim... and astrologically based forecasts are only one tool in the crystal ball game.

The next major Bradley turn point is right around Dec 20th. The last minor one was 9/9 and the next is 9/20.

[Jay]

Re: Bearish Information

That's my read Jim... and astrologically based forecasts are only one tool in the crystal ball game.

The next major Bradley turn point is right around Dec 20th. The last minor one was 9/9 and the next is 9/20.

Bart, you are a cruel man.

[bart]

Re: Bearish Information

Bart, you are a cruel man.

You must have known my first wife?... ;)

The bear market is far from over, especially on an inflation adjusted basis. I avoid mentioning much of the darker stuff I foresee as probable since it does little good.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Bearish Information

I started this with hope of attracting individual opinions, one's own or reference to technical indications of bearishness, or links to articles that support the bearish case in any general or specific asset class.

I find such a compartmented starting place beneficial, and I would hope others would too, while freely posting supporting information here.

It seems that I am making most of the posts, which was not my intention. I assume others run across pertinent posts on the web or have their own opinions, and to benefit us all, it would be nice to see links to good articles or expression of individuals' opinions.

Were I first starting to read this thread, I would read it from the bottom to top as the earlier posts will be the most dated.

edit: 12/28/06. For 10 days I have tracked the number of "views" of this Bearish thread vs. those to the Bullish thread. Bulls 220 vs. Bears 398 views.

Jim I don't know whether it is just me but would you care to start a new thread? This has become so large I can't navigate the thing. I can't seem to be able to navigate the whole thread menu and often can't find new posts or can do so after finding my way through about a hundred old ones to reach it. If it is just me don't worry about it.
Cheers

[tombat1913]

Re: Bearish Information

What need do we have for a bearish information thread? Everything is going great!

[magicvent]

Re: Bearish Information

Please share what you believe these darker things will be.

[bart]

Re: Bearish Information

Please share what you believe these darker things will be.

They're covered pretty well on the various threads, I just didn't want to add to the gloom or unspoken despair side of KaPoom & the derivatives mess.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information

Jim I don't know whether it is just me but would you care to start a new thread? This has become so large I can't navigate the thing. I can't seem to be able to navigate the whole thread menu and often can't find new posts or can do so after finding my way through about a hundred old ones to reach it. If it is just me don't worry about it.
Cheers

Outback, what I do is either click on "New Posts" and if this thread shows up and you wish to see what the last post was, click the ">" by the poster's name. That should take you to the last post.

From the Forums Home, News, if you wish to access either thread, click on the ">" by the poster's name that is shown, that should take you to the last post.

From the last post, you can scroll up to read any recent ones of interest.

If you wish to look back, say a year from now, as to what may have been posted, if anything, on 9/17/2008, you'll have to hit the various pages until you find what you are looking for.

[Supercilious]

Re: Bearish Information

Important bearish information from iTulip.

Just looked at the bottom of the page:

Currently Active Users: 16582 (577 members and 16005 guests)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information

Important bearish information from iTulip.

Just looked at the bottom of the page:

There have been so many posts recently, I've quit trying to read them all.

Perhaps incorrectly, it has struck me recently that there are not many comments reflecting fear of further declines in the market. It is possible that everyone has been in instruments that make money if the equities move down, and long PM's.

I noticed last night a similar great number of people signed on or viewing as guests, but did not know how to interpret it.

If the large numbers are indicative of bearishness, which I don't know that to be the case, then it would strike be as bullish.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Bearish Information

Contrarian thought there Jim but.....Itulipers are still this tiny minority. For example Aus has a population of 20 million and 19,999,985 of them still think the world is wonderful and we are all just going to keep on buying the latest gizmos with 50 months of interst free, no deposit, no repayment, finance!

[Supercilious]

Re: Bearish Information

Perhaps incorrectly, it has struck me recently that there are not many comments reflecting fear of further declines in the market.

Yup, but it may be just the fact that everybody is mesmerized watching a house of cards collapsing. It is interesting that getting oil at $90/bbl was also completely ignored.

I had a field day when I saw Fred quoting Coxe about commodities manipulation ( "A global conspiracy? Not possible." ) , but I was was alone at the victory dance pow-wow. That was strange.;)

It is possible that everyone has been in instruments that make money if the equities move down, and long PM's.

I also believe that most people here are heavily into physical or paper PM. In these times of uncertainty a PM portfolio can make you rich or destitute overnight.... several times a week .... it must be nerve wrecking.

I noted last night a similar great number of people signed on or viewing as guests, but did not know how to interpret it.

People are scared and confused. We have been subjected to a carefully engineered financial "shock and awe". IMHO opinion it's a text-book-case of problem-reaction-solution.




People will scream for more bailouts:
"Something must be done to save us! They have to prevent the collapse of the US economy! They have to do something!!!!"

Who created this whole mess (subprime/derivative/oil price) by keeping rates too low for too long? Who is supposed to save us now? Both questions have the same answer: the Fed.

This is prime time to circumvent Congress and pull audacious stunts of unprecedented wealth transfer. It's history in the making. For that to work, everybody has to be scared. Hmmm ... 1907 ... deja vu all over again


I wouldn't be surprised to find out that most of the 16000 guests got here after overloading Google, in search for a bit of credible and reliable information, trying to make sense of all these "unexpected" market events. Those who arrived here may be the lucky ones.

Not saying that iTulip is always 100% right or EJ is a prophet. Because I'm a contrarian^2, I have myself quite a few disagreements with him. I'm saying that by browsing iTulip and reading the debates, they can get better information than anything produced in the media or blabbered by various Crammers that are full of it (and full of themselves too )

If the large numbers are indicative of bearishness, which I don't know that to be the case, then it would strike be as bullish.

I believe that a large number of visitors actually is a sign of confusion and panic/numbness which creates a background of acceptance and resignation for the possibility that we will see soon the Mother of all Bears.

That is very important shot term bearish information, but in the medium/long term .....;)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Barron's interview:Zulauf

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...e_main&page=sp

I put this in because it tends to coincide with what I think will happen.

What's your reaction to Friday's announcement that Paulson is crafting a plan for the federal government to buy illiquid assets from various financial firms?

[Zulauf] Treasury, together with the Fed, is taking a big step forward to keep the system from melting down. It will work, but it has to be at least $1 trillion in size and the Fed has to help by cutting rates. The idea is good; now the Treasury has to make it solid and the Fed has to lend its support. This is probably the beginning of a medium-term bottom. Usually a good bottom, even medium term, doesn't stand on one leg. In the coming three or four weeks, the low will be tested, but from there we have a chance for a good medium-term rally.

JN Emphasis