Bearish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re: John Hussman

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc080421.htm

My personal bias is that the equity markets are set up for a rally, already being in that mode since March 10th. The biggest weakness in the rally so far has been absence of volume, upon which Hussman also comments.

Hussman's weekly note tonight should offer some encouragement to any bears were their feeling to be hurt now and possibly moreso in the coming days.

Investors overly tied to the commodity boom and “global demand” as drivers of investment positions would do well to examine that behavior.[/B] It is often initially painful, but ultimately worthwhile to remember that it's best to panic before everyone else does.

I have frequently noted that one of the uses of “market action” is to gauge the extent to which investors have a willingness to speculate. Given the affection of investors for risk last week, it is natural to ask why we don't take that at face value and immediately accept a speculative exposure to market risk. The reason is that the recent shift toward greater speculation continues to appear very fragile. Trading volume has become dull when it should be expanding, the spread between commercial paper and Treasury bills has widened to the highest spread year-to-date (despite modest improvement in CDS spreads), and unlike robust speculative markets, we continue to observe divergent industry group behavior and selective leadership (still primarily materials and cyclicals).
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Divergent internals have historically been unfavorable for the overall market - sustained advances typically feature broad uniformity across industry groups and security types and price/volume behavior indicative of strong demand and conviction – not simply a “backing off” of sellers in the face of short-covering.

As I've often noted, about the only point where I have an opinion about near-term market action is when the market is either overbought in an unfavorable Market Climate, or oversold in a favorable Climate. Given that the market is once again overbought in an unfavorable Market Climate, my impression is that the risk of a free-fall is significant. Aside from short-term speculative pressures (largely driven by relief about Bear Stearns), nothing in recent data suggests a material abatement of recession risk, mortgage risk, profit margin risk, or dollar risk.
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Periods of rich valuations are frustrating because they prevent us from taking unhedged or leveraged investment positions. This is normally very comfortable to do for a significant portion of market cycle. Because the 2003 lows occurred at the highest valuations of any prior bear market trough in history, we were only able to remove 70% of our hedges. If the market trough a few weeks ago represented a final bear market low, it would be yet again at the highest level of valuation in history for a bear market trough, and the lack of compelling improvement in market action from the recent low will also have delayed a favorable shift in the Market Climate beyond what we normally observe at the start of a new bull market cycle.

Frankly, it's difficult to believe that we've observed the market's final low. Bear markets associated with recessions tend to be deeper and longer in duration than average, particularly in periods of “secular” revaluation (which I believe we've been in since 2000). It bears repeating that the total return of the S&P 500 has lagged Treasury bill returns since July 1998 – both about 3.3% annually, though with T-bills doing slightly better. The S&P 500 has also lagged Treasury bills over the past 18 months even with the recent advance. My impression is that by the time the present market cycle is complete, 2003 will be the only bull market year for which the returns of the S&P 500 in excess of Treasury bills will be preserved.
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Meanwhile, we are gradually clipping our exposure to precious metals shares (currently just over 15% of assets in Strategic Total Return) on periodic strength. I don't expect commodities prices to weaken immediately, but once we observe a shift toward positive real interest rates (particularly if inflation rates abate somewhat while Treasury yields remain in the current range), even a favorable valuation in terms of say, the gold/XAU ratio, won't forestall weakness in precious metals shares. Suffice it to say that we remain constructive for now, but are using any unusual strength to lighten our remaining exposure.

Bold emphasis JN

His entire comment is well worth reading I do believe, plus there is a bit of entertainment in it suggested for you business TV watchers.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Abelson's column Barron's

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...olumns&page=sp [subscription]

The credit crunch, despite the strenuous exertions of Bernanke & Co, shows little sign of easing, much less ending. Yet, financial shares have risen from the grave and are enjoying a dandy whirl. As Stephanie Pomboy, the perspicacious proprietor of MacroMavens, points out, this pop amid dauntingly ugly corporate reports by the banks and the rest of the financial gang is something we've seen before, and often.

"Since the wheels first started falling off last summer," she relates, "the financials have posted no fewer than 12 rallies of 5% or more.... It bears note that none of these stints, separate or combined, have precluded the financial sector from shedding 28% over the stretch."

Maybe 13 will prove the lucky number. Stephanie, though, sounds more than a bit skeptical, and so are we. At some point, we suspect, investors are going to sober up and stop popping the cork to celebrate the latest lender to take a multibillion-dollar bath.

OUR FRIENDS DAVID AND JAY LEVY, the astute duo who put out the insightful Levy Forecast, dismiss all the talk about the worst being over as wishful thinking. The worst, they insist, is yet to come, and real recovery might take its own sweet time in making an appearance. And they wouldn't advise anyone to hold their breath awaiting a propitious moment to go bottom-fishing.

The time for bottom fishing, they declare, "will be after a long, deep recession, when employment is down sharply and still falling, commodity prices have plunged, the scent of general price deflation fills the air and global financial and economic conditions are in turmoil. The risk pendulum, which reached extremes of complacency in 2006 before starting to swing back, will be near the other extreme, paranoia, not just in mortgage-related markets, but in asset markets generally. Fire sales to meet liquidity needs will abound."

We're not there yet, and there are many days, sleepless nights and wearing miles to go. And, the Levys counsel, stoutly resist the temptation to take the plunge prematurely, for even when we start scraping that magic bottom, there'll be no great rush. On that score, they reckon "the period of great opportunity," which they envision coming out of "fear, uncertainty and illiquidity," will likely last for a few years. But when it finally dawns, they're firmly confident, it'll prove very much worth the wait. All the more so since investments in what they dub "exciting long-term growth areas" such as natural resources, alternative energy and rapidly developing markets in emerging economies are likely to be there for the taking at "great long-term entry points."

If one missed it by chance, check out the Lehman report posted here .

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...80502_6mo.html

by Carl Swenlin
May 2, 2008

Something you will be hearing a lot about for a while is that for the next six months the market will be carrying extra drag caused by negative seasonality. Research published by Yale Hirsch in the "Trader's Almanac" shows that the market year is broken into two different six-month seasonality periods. From May 1 through October 31 is seasonally unfavorable, and the market most often finishes lower than it was at the beginning of the period. November 1 through April 30 is seasonally favorable, and the market most often finishes the period higher.

Back testing of a timing model using the beginning of these periods as entry and exit points shows that being invested only during the favorable period (and being in cash during the unfavorable period) finishes way ahead of buy and hold. As I recall, the opposite strategy actually loses money. (See Sy Harding's book "Riding the Bear" for a full discussion of this subject. Seriously, I really, really recommend this book.)

While the statistical average results for these two periods are quite compelling, trying to ride the market in real-time in hopes of capturing these results is not always as easy as it sounds. Below is a chart that begins on May 1, 2007 and ends on April 30, 2008. The left half of the chart shows the unfavorable May through October period and the right half shows the favorable November through April period. As you can see, the seasonality periods performed exactly opposite of the statistical average. The point to be made is that, regardless of how the market performs on average, every year is different and presents its own challenges, and there is no guarantee that any given period will conform to the average.



Whether or not you find the seasonality strategy compelling enough to use, the statistics tell us that the next six months are apt to be dangerous, and that is something to keep in mind when evaluating the overall context of the market. The fact that this negative seasonality period is taking place during a bear market, makes it even more dangerous.

Bottom Line: We are in a bear market, and the 6-month period of negative seasonality has begun. Expect price reversals when the market gets overbought. When the PMOs (Price Momentum Oscillators) begin to reverse downward, that would be a good time to consider tightening stops and/or closing long positions.

We rely on the mechanical trend models to determine our market posture. Below is a recent snapshot of our primary trend-following timing model status for the major indexes and sectors we track. Note that we have included the nine Rydex Equal Weight ETF versions of the S&P Spider Sectors. This may seem redundant, but the equal weighted indexes most often do not perform the same as their cap-weighted counterparts, and they provide a way to diversify exposure.

Also here is today's comment by Sy Harding wherein he discusses his version of the six-month seasonality consideration.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Hussman

Hussman gives a very nice account of the ups and downs of the market collapse of 2000. I think Hussman's weekly reports are always worth my time to read them.

May 5, 2008
Deja Vu

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
All rights reserved and actively enforced.
Reprint Policy

Well, having declined nearly 20% from its peak, the S&P 500 has recovered about half of its loss in a period of several weeks, taking the index within about 10% of the all-time high it registered in the mid-1500 range a few quarters ago, with the Dow Industrials down even less. Transportation stocks, in particular, have enjoyed a scorching rally in recent weeks, bettering their prior bull market highs. Despite the fact that our most reliable recession indicators registered a clear warning late last year pointing to an oncoming economic downturn, the unemployment rate stands only about a half-percent above its lows and remains modest on a historical basis. The option volatility index has declined significantly, while credit spreads and advisory bullishness are on the mend. All of this suggests that market participants believe the worst is over, thanks largely to the actions of the Federal Reserve. For our part, the Strategic Growth Fund has achieved positive returns since the market's peak. Still, the Fund has not participated in the recent advance, and remains a few percent below its all-time high, but we are willing to take a more constructive position if market internals improve.

But enough about January 2001.

Talk about deja vu. At that time, market conditions could be precisely described by the preceding paragraph, including the optimism of investors. As I wrote in my weekly market comment then, “Everybody seems to believe that the Fed has bought a market bottom, and that the current economic slowdown is "old news". We're skeptical. Mainly because the current economic downturn is coming off of a capital investment boom financed with a great deal of leverage. We believe that the economy is in the early phase of a "deleveraging cycle". Investors who believe in the omnipotence of the Fed have evidently forgotten phrases like "liquidity trap" and "pushing on a string", which are ways that economists describe the failure of easy money to stimulate the economy when spending is sluggish. Well, that's what we're likely to get.”

As it turned out, the rally into 1/30/01 was quickly erased by a plunge in the S&P 500 Index of -19.7% into 4/4/01, followed by a powerful bear market rally of 19.0% through 5/21/01. The S&P 500 then proceeded to surrender that gain, and the events of 9/11 worsened an already weak market, driving the market down -26.4% from May's rally high. The S&P 500 then surged 21.4% into 1/4/02, dropped -7.9% into 2/7/02, advanced 8.3% into 3/19/02, collapsed -31.8% into 7/23/02, advanced 20.7% into 8/22/02 and finally plunged -19.3% to its bear market low on 10/9/02, for a cumulative loss in the S&P 500 Index of -49.1%.

Investors really have no sense of market dynamics if they believe that a recession-linked bear market comprises a single decline of less than 20% followed by a “V” shaped rebound into a new bull market. While I don't expect the market's losses to be nearly as severe as they were in the 2000-2002 bear market, the simple fact is that if the recent market low was indeed a final bear market trough, it occurred at the highest valuation level of any prior bear market trough in history.

I don't want to convey the impression that the market cannot advance further as a result of speculative pressures, but at present, the S&P 500 remains priced to deliver probable total returns of about 2-4% annually over the coming decade (a decade ago, using the same methodology, the projected return was in the range of 0-2%, which is about what we've observed). I do not hope for a steep market decline, but it is effectively the only way for stocks to be priced to deliver meaningful long-term returns.

Rest of the weekly comment.

Hussman also notes:

In precious metals, the Market Climate continues to be modestly favorable but we continue to look for opportunities to clip our exposure in this area, now at less than 10% of assets in the Strategic Total Return Fund.

That fund was previously about 15% long gold shares, now cut back to <10%, and he's still looking to lighten up.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Hussman on Au shares, commodities

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc080512.htm

May 12, 2008
Round Two - Home Price Erosion
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

On last week's rally in precious metals shares, we clipped our exposure further, to just about 5% of assets. This is about our lowest allocation to precious metals shares since the Strategic Total Return Fund's inception in 2002. Meanwhile, given recent weakness in the euro and British pound, we added an allocation of about 10% of assets to foreign currencies. My impression is that commodity prices and the U.S. dollar will become less correlated in the months ahead. Though commodity prices are still in a frothy blowoff (making the ultimate highs uncertain), I do expect that we will observe a standard, run-of-the-mill, predictable, routine, and I-can't-believe-investors-don't-see-it-coming-a-mile-away commodity price “spike top” over the next few months or even weeks (stare at some historical charts), off of which prices are likely to decline with very little in the way of relief rallies. At the same time, further dollar weakness is likely as the U.S. economy slows and our need for foreign capital persists. As the decline in commodity prices in terms of “global” prices will probably be faster than the decline in the dollar, U.S. investors are likely to observe an unusual pattern of weakness in both commodities and the U.S. dollar.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Housing by Feldstein

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc080512.htm

Here Hussman relates comments by Martin Feldstein who is in Hussman's opinion "undoubtedly among the most respected U.S. economists," and who is president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the group that dates recessions.

Among Feldstein's comments was the observation that GDP is a quarterly average of 3 months, so the positive mark for GDP during the first quarter was actually quite misleading about the direction the economy has been taking: “If you compare where the economy was at the end of March with where the economy was at the beginning of the year, there's no question the economy is down by just about every measure.”

More important were his remarks about economic prospects, and the risk of placing too much faith in the Federal Reserve to manage those risks. These comments are important, and should not be missed:

“To me, the big question is what happens as more and more homes move into negative equity – as more and more people see that the value of their mortgages exceeds the value of their homes. If we see a big increase in defaults, ultimately in foreclosures, that's going to push us definitely into a significant recession.

“I think there's not much more that the Fed can do to help us in this situation. They've used up half their balance sheet setting up credit lines to take on questionable credits from the banks and the securities firms. They've brought interest rates down to the point where we have negative Fed Funds rates. So I think the policy shifts to the Administration and the Congress if we're going to put a floor under these house prices.

“I'll tell you what worries me. We saw house prices overshoot by 60% relative to costs of building and relative to rents. And I worry about the possibility that they will keep falling; they will spiral downwards. In the same way that they went much too high, they could go much too low. And if that happens, then we are going to see individuals feeling a lot poorer, cutting back on their spending, defaulting on mortgages, and we're going to see the holders of those mortgages see their assets, their capital being cut and therefore their ability to make loans being cut.

“So I think that there is a role to prevent this kind of downward overshooting of house prices. Prices have to fall somewhat from where they are today, but I think the danger is we have so many loan-to-value ratios greater than 100%, and those individuals are going to have a very strong temptation to simply turn in the keys and walk away because there's nobody to negotiate with. These mortgages have been securitized to the point where they cannot simply sit down across the table with the mortgage originator from their bank and work it out.“

Hussman goes on:

From a public policy standpoint, Feldstein is suggesting that structured finance and securitization (i.e. chopping up different streams of mortgage payments into dozens of separately traded securities) has created what economists call a “coordination failure” that may require government intervention to address. Frankly, I don't think the prospects are good that government intervention will catch anything but the tail end of this problem, because policy takes time to develop, and the defaults are already largely baked in the cake. What happened here is that the markets tolerated a huge “principal/agent” problem, where the people who were originating the mortgages (“agents”) didn't really have anything at stake, and could sell mortgage debt to willing buyers (“principals”) who would fund those loans in the belief that they were getting nice AAA paper. A lot of the money that was lent simply can't be paid back, because it was used to buy assets that were priced far in excess of sustainable market value.

In short, far from the credit crisis being over, it's likely that we will see a troublesome second round that eventually provokes government intervention. The financial markets shouldn't take too much comfort from the idea of intervention, since it will almost surely be of the sort that forces the lenders to take losses while providing some sort of reduced principal workout to homeowners. Some of these proposals are already being discussed, but with limited urgency. My guess is that all of that is likely to change in the months ahead.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Aden Sisters Oil

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...518C59FC03A%7D

From Peter Brimelow

While remaining committed to an inflationist, and almost apocalyptical long view, The Adens have been quick to recognize when major trend are temporarily exhausted. For example, oil. In their latest issue, out last week, they write, in their native chartspeak: "Chart 29A shows the incredible run in oil. It's now overshooting the top side of a 23 year channel, while its leading indicator (B) is at an overbought area, the most since 2000. This is saying that oil is near, or at a high area for now. Keep an eye on $106 as oil will remain very strong even if it declines to this level. Major support is at $84."

Similarly, on stocks: "An intermediate trend change that started in March remains underway. This contra trend is up for stocks, the dollar and interest rates, while it's down for the precious metals and currencies. This trend could last a couple of months but the major trends are solidly intact"
In essence, the Adens think that the U.S. has succeeded in inflating its way out of its current problems, but that will cause more problems later.
But for now, they have currently increased their stock position to 50%, reducing cash to 10%. It comprises:

• 40% gold & silver physical & ETFs, and gold & silver shares
• 50% energy, resource and other stocks
• 10% cash: Euro, Swiss Franc, Singapore and Australian dollars or currency funds

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Societe Generale

This is a cross-reference to a post by Rajiv here.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...ambrose112.xml

The bears at Société Générale are going into Siberian hibernation, issuing an "Ice Age" alert. They have slashed exposure to global equities to a minimum 30pc for the first time ever.

Their weighting of super-safe "AAA" government bonds has been raised to a maximum 50pc. This is a bet on gruelling "Japanese" deflation. The bank expects equities to fall by 50pc to 75pc.

"Nowhere and nothing will be immune. We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios," said Albert Edward, SG's global strategist.

"We see a global recession unfolding. Liquidity will drain away and crush the twin emerging market and commodity bubbles. The recent hope that 'the worst might be over' is truly staggering. Profits are disintegrating," he said.
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The oil spike will burn itself out. China has hit the buffers. With inflation at 8.5pc, it risks political turmoil. Moreover, it has repeated Japan's mistakes in the 1980s, building too many factories shipping too many goods at slender margins into a crumbling export market.

Lehman Brothers' Sun Mingchun says China will tip over in the second half of this year. "With so much latent overcapacity, an export-led slowdown could trigger a chain reaction which, in the worst case, could threaten the stability of [its] financial and economic system," he said.

Britain, Europe, Japan, and China will go down before America comes back up. This is turning into a synchronised bust, after all. The Global Slump of 2008-09 is under way.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re: William's Hyperinflation

See the thread in which iTulip discusses John Williams' Hyperinflation Special Report of 4/8/08 http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...5810#post35810

Hyperinflation could be experienced as early as 2010, if not before, and likely no more than a decade down the road.
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..the current circumstance will evolve into a hyperinflationary depression, then great depression. Although such is not likely much before 2010, or after 2018, that financial end game for the current markets will tend to come sooner rather than later and will break with surprising speed when it hits. As discussed later, this likely will not be a deflationary environment as seen during the Great Depression.

[Guest]

Re: Bearish Information

I work in neighborhoods in affluent areas. Normally over the years I was annoyed at how many bored housewife/soccer mom types were coming/going through subdivisions all day long. I mean streams of cars, sometimes a car would leave a home, return, and leave again all within an hour or so. I'd also notice ridiculous numbers of truck deliveries of large furniture and electronics.

Lately I've noticed that there are far fewer cars and trucks out in these neighborhoods during work hours. I suspect this may be because they are a little more worried about their incomes and the "I'm bored let's go to the mall and buy something" trips are being nixed and also because fuel costs may be making people more cognizant of the price of driving around for fun.

I've also noticed that a particular strip of road servicing these affluent people with shopping/restaurants/etc that historically has been a PITA to get through is now nearly clear sailing during the day. The Brazillan steakhouses, designer toy stores, and home improvement stores don't seem to be drawing them out as in the past.

Even higher income families seem to be curbing their enthusiasm for spending, perhaps worrying that there will be a job loss and they'll need to live on savings rather than blow it on consumer goods.

It's anectdotal, but I'm convinced.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information

I work in neighborhoods in affluent areas. Normally over the years I was annoyed at how many bored housewife/soccer mom types were coming/going through subdivisions all day long. I mean streams of cars, sometimes a car would leave a home, return, and leave again all within an hour or so. I'd also notice ridiculous numbers of truck deliveries of large furniture and electronics.

Lately I've noticed that there are far fewer cars and trucks out in these neighborhoods during work hours. I suspect this may be because they are a little more worried about their incomes and the "I'm bored let's go to the mall and buy something" trips are being nixed and also because fuel costs may be making people more cognizant of the price of driving around for fun.

I've also noticed that a particular strip of road servicing these affluent people with shopping/restaurants/etc that historically has been a PITA to get through is now nearly clear sailing during the day. The Brazillan steakhouses, designer toy stores, and home improvement stores don't seem to be drawing them out as in the past.

Even higher income families seem to be curbing their enthusiasm for spending, perhaps worrying that there will be a job loss and they'll need to live on savings rather than blow it on consumer goods.

It's anectdotal, but I'm convinced.

So where are you working, Bruce, Brazil? And what do you do, cut grass?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Union Bancaire Privee

For additional discussion see http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3919

Thank you, ronin for this link. http://www.ubp.ch/ged/AAGF.20080430....ANNUEL2007.PDF

Below was written Jan. 2008 by Edgar de Picciotto, Chairman of the Board, UBP.

2008 will be turbulent, because it will represent a historic
inflection point in the path of our economic and monetary
policies. However, this does not rule out the possibility of
an accelerated rebound, fuelled by the old models and
providing yet another reprieve for the credit super-cycle.
But we shall pay dearly. The dollar and the rest of the world
will have to bow to the political priorities of America, which
controls the only global reserve currency.

The BRIC countries will forge ahead without skipping a

beat and will constitute the investment platforms of choice.

Their stock markets may experience some severe jolts
along the way, but the underlying trend will remain robust.

The western stock markets will deteriorate, whereas
currencies and gold will once again benefit from the
demand for capital preservation and prove rich in opportunities
for substantial gains. Gold remains the mirror image
of the West’s difficulties.

When we emerge from these major changes, it will be to
find that the sun has set on the western economy and

the New World has dawned.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bearish Information

So where are you working, Bruce, Brazil? And what do you do, cut grass?

You are a bad bad person, Jim.

As the gas prices near $4, the traffic on the streets improved some indeed, my commute time decreased noticeably.

To stick with the topic of this thread, we officially reached overbought levels and there is a healthy retread in equities that stated yesterday. I was bit early on selling equities (roughly a week), but not a big deal. The worst part is oil. I'm underwater on oil shorts. This feels as bubbly as Nasdaq 1999-2000. Probably too dangerous to short. If someone keep saying that oil prices just reflect inflation (in 100% nonetheless), I will scream BS or have your head examined (at least I tried).

[Guest]

Re: Bearish Information

No, it's just the steaks that are Brazillian, not the customers. I'm in Atlanta, which was hardly a boom town during the housing runup. The Brazillian steakhouse has gone out of business, which I noticed just yesterday. Yes, I have owned a lawn maintenance business for the last 16 years. You couldn't drag me back into a corporate office. I'm gradually becoming semi-retired now thanks to some of the clever advice I got about investing in things like gold. I should be sitting on a beach collecting 20% like Hans Gruber by age 50.

I also noted that the number of sales in the zip code I'm referencing for a 2 month period last reported was down to 199 from over 1500 at the peak a couple years back, and 1,000 a year ago. But I also note that prices have gone down just a few percent. Apparently what they say is true. Don't discount it, you won't sell it. Slash the price and you'll sell it.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information

No, it's just the steaks that are Brazillian, not the customers. I'm in Atlanta, which was hardly a boom town during the housing runup. The Brazillian steakhouse has gone out of business, which I noticed just yesterday. Yes, I have owned a lawn maintenance business for the last 16 years. You couldn't drag me back into a corporate office. I'm gradually becoming semi-retired now thanks to some of the clever advice I got about investing in things like gold. I should be sitting on a beach collecting 20% like Hans Gruber by age 50.

I also noted that the number of sales in the zip code I'm referencing for a 2 month period last reported was down to 199 from over 1500 at the peak a couple years back, and 1,000 a year ago. But I also note that prices have gone down just a few percent. Apparently what they say is true. Don't discount it, you won't sell it. Slash the price and you'll sell it.

First, to f-jacek, yes, I am "bad, bad person" in some respects probably depending upon the observer's orientation.

Bruce,

Thank you for putting up a bit about yourself. I prefer to know (at least prefer to think I might know) who the fuck is writing what on iTulip. My life's experiences in exchange of information and argument were all on a definite basis of knowing to whom I was speaking or writing with regard to whatever the case was. Those here who for whatever their intentions, reasons choose complete anonymity frustrate me, because I have never dealt with others anonymously on important issues.

I really detest not knowing anything about some of the jay-birds who post here. (Jay-birds = mild contempt) (goddammed idiots = serious contempt).

It would be nice, I believe, if you can figure out how to edit your profile and put in "Atlanta" and whatever bit you prefer about yourself regarding age, work, interests, etc.

I appreciate your contributions. Cutting grass is good. Grass probably is not going away in Atlanta, though I read something a while back about water shortages there. The best house painter I ever had was a ex-convict, and the second best was a math-major who took over his dad's painting business because he wasn't paying his way with mathmatics.