Bearish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. SPX down 20% or 40%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...rH0&refer=home

Nouriel Roubini:

Global equities will fall 20 percent this year from current levels as China, which contributed 19.5 percent to total growth in 2007, contends with its slowest expansion in seven years, he said. Wall Street strategists predict the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, down 8.4 percent so far, will rise 17 percent in 2009.

Albert Edwards:

Roubini’s view is shared by Societe Generale SA global strategist Albert Edwards, who was correct in forecasting in March that a U.S. contraction would spur a bear market in equities. Edwards says the China slowdown will reduce earnings at industrial, energy and raw-materials companies, sparking a selloff in emerging and developed-market stocks that may send the S&P 500 down 40 percent to 500.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Bearish Information

Wall Street Roulette

James M. Clash, 12.08.08

...analysts have trimmed their 2009 earnings estimates by a modest 7.5% so far for the S&P 500 as a whole, according to Thomson IBES. For their current projections to prove accurate, earnings will have to grow 15% next year to $91. That's down from the 24% gain analysts were expecting two months ago. It's before nonrecurring items, which knocked $12 off the net in the first nine months of 2008.

[..]

Even if the S&P 500's forward p/e ratio remains flat at ten times estimated 2009 earnings, that would bring it down 29% to 650.

Simon Goodfellow of ING Financial Markets:

- There is one last leg down.

- 25% - 30% down from here. Quite quick.

- Basic problem is earnings guidance, consensus still to high

Q - What aren't people factoring in that you are?

"When you dig down underneath the consensus, the bears are there alright. There is a very interesting number - if you take the lowest forecast for the whole of every European company, you come up with -49% on exactly the same basis as I've just been talking about. The trouble is, it's polluted by the high of that, the (inaudible) is +88! That is an absolutely ridiculously thing. You're ramming together two totally different views of the World and calling that the consensus."