Bearish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Bear Market Chart

This comes to me in an email periodically when the originator has his ducks in a row. It has been so long since I got an update, his name slips my mind, perhaps James West. His site is buythebottom.com and he follows COT data. Click the link below to see his nice chart, the importance of which is explained by him in the quote.

http://buythebottom.com:80/images/s&p_500_monthly.gif

Bear Market?
While we may bounce in the near term - longer term there is
evidence that the S&P 500 has entered a bear market.
From the chart above, we see that following a moving average
on the S&P monthly chart helped distinguish between a bear and
bull market since 1995. As of right now, we have broken below
the 20 day EMA at around 1,400. Further evidence comes from
the Rate of Change histogram, which turned negative in this month.
Notice how the ROC was negative all throughout 2001 - 2003.

I believe his chart gets his point across. Good work. To look at all his charts, which are without comment click http://www.buythebottom.com/cot_charts/ One can click "MKT update" on the main page of that site and sign up for emails.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. iTulip

I can't find anything interesting to post regarding bearishness, so if one is looking, figure out how to read say the past three days of postings on iTulip. Mostly bearish as it strikes me.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re: From Abelson

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...olumns&page=sp Subscription
Barron's 2/4/08

As we noted last week, what we're seeing is a typical bear-market rally, predictably paced by the very stocks -- home builders, financials and the like -- that spearheaded the big plunge. The action is much more reflective of sellers' fatigue -- strenuous unloading of big positions can tire out even the most dedicated dumper -- than any intimation of a turn.

Indeed, as the estimable David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch, who consistently comes up with some great stuff, points out, in the 2000-2002 bear market, there were no fewer than 16 rallies of at least 5% in the S&P, each lasting on average about a month, and no fewer than 35 bounces of 5% or more in the Nasdaq (which still managed to wind up losing nearly 80% of its value).

The investment byword remains don't buy the rally (rather, sell it). And stay defensive. This bear market is nowhere near over.

The question is how much more can this run-up go? So far it has been eight trading days since the recent lows (5 for the NDX), and since then the SPX has gained 6.48%, DJI 6.45%, Nasdaq 5.28%, NDX 3.69%, RUT 8.77%, and VGY 9.72%

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re: Barron's Interview McNay

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...e_main&page=sp Subscription

Barron's interview 2/4/08
A Growth Maven's New Favorite: Gold

Interview with Joseph McNay, Chairman, Essex Investment Management

It is a very difficult environment and we have the most stretched financial system that has occurred since I have been in the business, not to mention probably alive. The extension of debt not only represented by subprime loans and credit cards, but also by the government running big deficits and our population buying more than we produce and creating money to do it -- this is an entrenched long-term problem of significance and the implications are bigger than anything I believe we have seen.

We are at a point where there has been enough building of short interest and liquidation of stocks that we could have a rally. However, that will be a rally in what will be a market that continues to deteriorate.

One must be very sensitive and look upon it as a bounce, not the start of a bull market. We haven't seen the height of the mortgage-market problems yet. The first six months of this year will be the biggest unwinding of adjustable-rate mortgages that we have had, and that will start to impact.

Of course, the government is going to come out with a series of stimulus packages, and that may get people excited and make them feel more comfortable. And, of course, interest rates have come down and all of those things will give people an excuse to go in and buy. But be careful, focus and look out.

He for the same reasons as outlined on iTulip by EJ is bullish on gold and mining stocks. Also bullish on some agricultural stocks, think MOO in general, and some healthcare stocks.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Precious Metals correction?

du Plessis http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...80%93-17-2008/

David Fuller (Fullermoney): Caution regarding medium-term prospects of precious metals

“… we remain long-term bulls of precious metals but we are also becoming more cautious regarding medium-term prospects. Throughout their bull move commencing in 2001, precious metals have been prone to medium-term (multi-month) advances, usually led by platinum, which end in acceleration amidst a crescendo of bullish forecasts and price extrapolations.

“Peaks are followed by sharp reactions within the long-term upward trends, and then many months of ranging in a new support building process. During this phase investors become despondent regarding gold’s prospects and forecasts for all precious metals are downgraded, only to be raised again in the latter stages of the next advance.

“Meanwhile, platinum’s acceleration and the overall strong upward bias since last August suggest that we are now at a late stage of this medium-term advance. Tactics, particularly for futures traders, should be particularly disciplined at this stage of the medium-term cycle. It is impossible to know exactly how and when this leg of the uptrend will end but the first clear downward week for platinum could be an early warning.

“Gold mining shares are unlikely to uncouple from bullion’s directional moves but they have lagged recently due to the weak tone of global stock markets. Consequently mining shares could be marginally resistant to the next medium-term setback in bullion, provided equities are firmer generally.”
Source: David Fuller, Fullermoney, February 12, 2008.

Emphasis JN

Below is a link to weekly platinum chart: $PLAT

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PL...d=p10858763678

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Yen Weakening

du Plessis 2/18/08 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...80%93-17-2008/

BCA Research: Japanese economy – more bad news
“Last week’s data releases showcase a continued deterioration in the broad Japanese economy. Machinery orders declined for a second month in a row, reflecting weak capital spending plans for domestic firms and softening global demand. Export order growth, which until recently has been the single ray of hope for the ailing economy is now decelerating.

“Moreover, the Economy Watchers index declined further in December to 31.8 (from 36.6), suggesting that a continued retrenchment in consumer spending and overall domestic economic activity is in store.

“Interestingly, policymakers and politicians remain remarkably upbeat about the economy, with Fiscal Policy Minister Ota stating that ‘There’s no need to be pessimistic about the current state of machinery orders’. Bottom line: The Japanese economy appears to have slipped into recession. Stocks are likely to continue suffering and, once risk tolerance among global investors starts to revive, we expect the yen to weaken substantially. The Bank of Japan will eventually soften its rhetoric and may even ease if conditions deteriorate further.”

Source: BCA Research, February 11, 2008.

Emphasis JN.

Earlier in his article, du Plessis noted "Japan was the star performer among mature markets and rose by 4.7% on the back of better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP data." The 4.7% was measured in the Nikkei 225, which was closed on 2/11 and went up 558 yen on Wednesday.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Retest of 1/22/08 lows.

MARK HULBERT 2/19/08
Will the market pass its retest?
Commentary: Sentiment suggests that the retest of January lows may fail

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...5A090B3793C%7D

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) --

A dramatic retest of the Jan. 22 lows appears to be in the cards, to take place perhaps as early as this week.
.
.
Consider the latest readings of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average stock market exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. It currently stands at 7.4%.

The problem this current level poses for the contrarians is not that a 7.4% average exposure level represents excessive bullishness on the part of these market timers; it doesn't. Rather, the problem is that it suggests advisers are not on the verge of becoming thoroughly dejected and throwing in the towel -- the contrarian preconditions for declaring a bottom to be at hand.

Take, for example, where the HSNSI was on Jan. 24, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: was only marginally higher than where it stands today (12,378.61 vs. 12,348.21). The HSNSI then stood at minus 7.2%, or 14.6 percentage points below where this sentiment index stands currently. This suggests that there has been a trend among the editors of market-timing newsletters toward seeing the glass as half full rather than half empty.

Contrast these sentiment trends with how sentiment behaved in the successful retest of the stock market's low of Oct. 9, 2002, when the Dow closed at 7,286. The HSNSI on that day stood at 10%.

After an impressive rally off of that low, the market in the first months of 2003 set up a retest of that low, getting as close as 7,524 on March 11. The HSNSI on that day stood at minus 19.2% -- 29.2 percentage points lower than where this sentiment index had stood at the October 9 2002, low.

Of course, no one could have known for sure on that day that the Oct. 9 low would not be broken. But the sentiment data provided strong support for the notion that the low would hold.

It's always possible that things will change quickly this time around. As we get closer to the Jan. 22 lows, these market timers could fall over themselves jumping on the bearish bandwagon.

But, at least with early precincts reporting, it doesn't look promising.

I should note, for the record, that I am not drawing completely bearish conclusions from the sentiment data. On balance, I believe that, for a several-month horizon, the sentiment picture is more positive than negative for stocks.

But, for the very short-term, it's looking questionable that the Jan. 22 low will be the bottom on which that more intermediate-term advance can be built.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Abelson at Barron's

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...gazine_columns subscription

....Marc Faber posits that inflation and deflation can coexist (which strikes us as the worst of all possible worlds). As to our own view, we think it's one of those rare instances when both sides of the argument have it right, and our expectation is for a ravaging inflation to be followed by a debilitating deflation.

Marc, as he makes clear in his latest Gloom, Boom and Doom epistle, is bearish on the outlook for both our economy and stock market (not, to be sure, an unfamiliar stance for him). He points out that since financial institutions have provided or facilitated the excessive credit growth that has fueled the big bull markets in equities in recent years, you would logically assume that strategists, money managers and other such investment luminaries "would get a wake-up call" when the stock prices of those financial institutions, which got so fat, rich and sassy from their dubious exertions, collapsed.

But that only illustrates Marc's one fault: Despite his having journeyed to the far corners of the earth and seen everything, he's still too generous and forgiving of human frailty. What the diehard bulls can't grasp, he sighs, is that the credit bubble has burst and the deep wounds being inflicted on the financial sector portend an extended and painful period of weakness both for it and the general economy.

In fact, he's a bit more pessimistic than even that downbeat assessment suggests. For his reading of financial history is that "the bursting of a bubble has always been a signal that the economics of a region or a sector had changed, or were about to change, for a very long time, if not permanently."

It follows, then, that the radically changed environment brought about by the bursting of the credit bubble, one of the true mothers of all bubbles, is likely to result in a much more subdued global economy. And not just for a year, but a long time, possibly a very long time.

SPEAKING OF CREDIT, AS WE JUST WERE, this seems a timely occasion to give some to Stephanie Pomboy. Stephanie, as you're probably aware since she's no stranger to this space, puts out MacroMavens, a weekly commentary on the economy and the markets, enlivened by her sparkling prose and acid wit that adorn a wealth of insight and information.

The occasion is the sixth anniversary of MacroMavens. If you've just come in, Stephanie is unorthodoxy personified, wonderfully adept at puncturing myths and popping bubbles with pointed fact, whether originating in Wall Street, Washington or other louche locales. The credit crisis has provided a great stomping ground for her from its incipiency through the seizing up of the SWAPS market; invariably, she's a step or two ahead of the actual disaster.

All the grandiose plans to prop up the sinking homeowner appear absurd to her in the face of the obvious question: With $6 trillion of the $8 trillion in residential mortgage debt securitized, how do you get a lender to renegotiate a mortgage when you don't know who the lender is?

Most interesting in her latest screed, we thought, were her candidates for the next serious casualties of the credit collapse, credit cards and commercial real estate. For a spell now, Stephanie has been predicting that to make up the void in home-equity lending, consumers will shift to plastic, foreshadowing a bumper crop of credit-card delinquencies. And she observes that "while smiley-faced pundits laud 'still low' delinquency rates," such figures conceal the fact that explosive growth in credit-card borrowing has been accompanied by a "massive increase" in dollar amount of delinquencies.

The other terrible accident waiting to happen, Stephanie cautions, is commercial real estate. Eager to make up for lost residential mortgage volume, banks have been pouring dough hand over first into the commercial real-estate market, creating, naturally, a huge and swiftly inflating bubble. Such profligate lending has swollen commercial real-estate loans to 14% of all bank loans, the largest slice since data first was collected 13 years ago.

Inevitably, delinquencies are starting to rise apace with the burgeoning loans and have reached their highest level in a decade. The problem is a dead certainty to get worse, as troubles in Wall Street spill over into the commercial real estate market. Stephanie cites a report by CB Richard Ellis that 42% of commercial real estate in lower Manhattan and 28% in midtown is tied to the financial sector.

Ruminating on the frantic scurrying about in Washington to come up with some palliatives for distressed homeowners (especially those who vote) and stretched-to-the-limit lenders (especially those who chip into campaign coffers) Stephanie views the efforts with something between wonder and mild incredulity.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom and the traditional lack of any kind of wisdom in Washington, she avers, "The current credit bust is not simply a function of reckless real-estate lending -- residential and commercial. It is a function of interest rate 'resets' across the entire U.S. economy."
Consumers aren't the "only ones who haplessly heeded Greenspan's call to ARMS." Everyone, she explains, switched to borrowing short. Municipalities, for example, as we've just had unhappy reason to discover.

And so did Corporate America with a vengeance: Floating-rate paper now accounts for 54% of its overall issuance, up from 26% in 2002, and a tidy $565 billion in corporate bonds have to be rolled over this year, 34% greater than last year.

Hey smiley face, what's so funny?

And I keep asking myself HTF can I be long anything to do with equities and financials? All this stuff is scaring me silly or maybe crazy would be better.

[Nicolasd]

Re: Bearish Information

Hello Jim,

Some interesting bearish reads from Canada I would recommend altough they are just the pratical investor side of itulip theory:Sprott Asset Management

I invite you to read the monthly columns 'Market a glance' from Eric Sprott that are in line with I-tulip and review their Canadian equity fund portfolio composition and listen to the third telephone conference call of last January with their outlook on alternative energy and agriculture.(Their latest pick : december 21st IPO of a company refining metals for the solar enegy industry (5N+) went from $3 to $11 in 2 months)

I moved 100% of my cash position ($226KCAD) from Claymore BRIC early last december in this canadian equity fund and I am planning to move 100% my RRSP ( your 401K) into one of their edge fund in the next few weeks.


Enjoy,

Nicolas

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Roubini

Are you up for some bad news? Try this on for discomfort.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...2008/#more-486

From Prieur du Plessis quoting Financial Times 2/19/08

(sort of surprises me no iTulipers came upon and posted this) there are some graphs in the link.

Martin Wolf (Financial Times): America’s economy risks mother of all meltdowns, says Roubini
“‘I would tell audiences that we were facing not a bubble but a froth – lots of small, local bubbles that never grew to a scale that could threaten the health of the overall economy.’ Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence.

“That used to be Mr Greenspan’s view of the US housing bubble. He was wrong, alas. So how bad might this downturn get? To answer this question we should ask a true bear. My favourite one is Nouriel Roubini of New York University’s Stern School of Business, founder of RGE monitor.

“Recently, Professor Roubini’s scenarios have been dire enough to make the flesh creep. But his thinking deserves to be taken seriously. He first predicted a US recession in July 2006. At that time, his view was extremely controversial. It is so no longer. Now he states that there is ‘a rising probability of a ‘catastrophic’ financial and economic outcome’. The characteristics of this scenario are, he argues: ‘A vicious circle where a deep recession makes the financial losses more severe and where, in turn, large and growing financial losses and a financial meltdown make the recession even more severe.’

“Here are his 12 steps to financial disaster.

“Step one is the worst housing recession in US history. House prices will, he says, fall by 20 to 30% from their peak, which would wipe out between $4 000 billion and $6 000 billion in household wealth.

“Step two would be further losses, beyond the $250 billion to $300 billion now estimated, for subprime mortgages. About 60% of all mortgage origination between 2005 and 2007 had ‘reckless or toxic features’, argues Prof Roubini.

“Step three would be big losses on unsecured consumer debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans and so forth.

“Step four would be the downgrading of the monoline insurers, which do not deserve the AAA rating on which their business depends. A further $150 billion writedown of asset-backed securities would then ensue.

“Step five would be the meltdown of the commercial property market, while step six would be bankruptcy of a large regional or national bank.

“Step seven would be big losses on reckless leveraged buy-outs. Hundreds of billions of dollars of such loans are now stuck on the balance sheets of financial institutions.

“Step eight would be a wave of corporate defaults. On average, US companies are in decent shape, but a ‘fat tail’ of companies has low profitability and heavy debt. Such defaults would spread losses in ‘credit default swaps’, which insure such debt. The losses could be $250 billion. Some insurers might go bankrupt.

“Step nine would be a meltdown in the ‘shadow financial system’. Dealing with the distress of hedge funds, special investment vehicles and so forth will be made more difficult by the fact that they have no direct access to lending from central banks.

“Step 10 would be a further collapse in stock prices. Failures of hedge funds, margin calls and shorting could lead to cascading falls in prices.

“Step 11 would be a drying-up of liquidity in a range of financial markets, including interbank and money markets. Behind this would be a jump in concerns about solvency.

“Step 12 would be a vicious circle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation and fire sales of assets at below fundamental prices’.

“‘Total losses in the financial system will add up to more than $1 000 billion and the economic recession will become deeper more protracted and severe,’ says Prof Roubini.

“Can the Fed head this danger off? In a subsequent piece, Prof Roubini gives eight reasons why it cannot. These are, in brief: US monetary easing is constrained by risks to the dollar and inflation; aggressive easing deals only with illiquidity, not insolvency; the monoline insurers will lose their credit ratings, with dire consequences; overall losses will be too large for sovereign wealth funds to deal with; public intervention is too small to stabilise housing losses; the Fed cannot address the problems of the shadow financial system; regulators cannot find a good middle way between transparency over losses and regulatory forbearance, both of which are needed; and, finally, the transactions-oriented financial system is itself in deep crisis.”
Source: Martin Wolf, Financial Times, February 19, 2008.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Ultimate Sell Signal

It's not often that bells are rung warning the common investor of what to expect. This appears to be someone "ringing the bell."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...9B480D2B23F%7D

BILL DONOGHUE
The ultimate sell signal
Commentary: Resignation of top GAO official directly impacts your portfolio

By Bill Donoghue, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:25 p.m. EST Feb. 24, 2008

SEATTLE (MarketWatch) -- The resignation of America's unheeded and under-funded chief accountant and watchdog, along with the billion-dollar bullhorn he's been given, are the ultimate sell signals for America's stock investors.
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This sounds to me like the ultimate sell signal on America. As the next president is just under a year away from having the operational authority and consensus to take any definitive action, the Bush administration will have to act. In a highly charged election year such as this, controversial new economic proposals are unlikely to even be discussed.
When the nation's best-informed watchdog resigns and few are acting on his recommendations on his "Fiscal Wake-Up Tour," it's time to reconsider over-optimistic domestic stock investments and look elsewhere, or bet against the U.S. market.

The Peterson foundation potentially has a head start on both political parties and stronger funding than either prospective candidate to force discussion of key issues while pressuring the Bush administration to act decisively. In addition, it has already documented, through Walker's work at the GAO, the problems to be addressed. This is an once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, both for the foundation to work toward solutions and for you to invest accordingly as they progress.

That means sell domestic stocks short as the crisis expands, invest in commodities and foreign-stock ETFs that take advantage of a weakened U.S. dollar and economy, and build your retirement reserves with open-minded investing. This is the time to review your entire portfolio and invest decisively.

This is your year to recapture the profits you missed over the past eight years (a near-zero return on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX: S&P 500 Index) and avoid the obvious cost of over-enthusiasm and wishful thinking.


I'm optimistic for our country long-term because of the potential of the Peterson foundation, but disturbed about the plight of investors whose advisers will preach the out-of-date stay-the-course story and lead them into yet another bear market from which to recover.
Bill Donoghue is editor of The Proactive Fund Investor, a weekly newsletter published by MarketWatch.

[metalman]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Ultimate Sell Signal

It's not often that bells are rung warning the common investor of what to expect. This appears to be someone "ringing the bell."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...9B480D2B23F%7D

BILL DONOGHUE
The ultimate sell signal
Commentary: Resignation of top GAO official directly impacts your portfolio

By Bill Donoghue, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:25 p.m. EST Feb. 24, 2008

good advice, jim. took it here years ago... jim rogers, ej, etc. good to see you finally catching up!

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Ultimate Sell Signal

good advice, jim. took it here years ago... jim rogers, ej, etc. good to see you finally catching up!

metalman, you can guess, I'm sure, my reason for putting this up was for its possible contrarian value, but who knows, perhaps Donoghue's piece is the last call for the equity-markets-train before it heads to the South Pole.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Dan Sullivan The Chartist

http://www.thechartist.com/ Subscription.

Here is a bit of Sullivan's news letter tonight that offers his assessment of where the markets are and how a few of the "high-flyers" are faring.

3/6/08

STAY ON THE SIDELINES

There’s no question that we are in a bear market. Since closing in record high territory on October 9th, the Dow

has dropped 2124 points -14%. Over the same time frame, the benchmark S&P 500 has lost -16%, while the

NASDAQ is down -20% and Russell 2000 -21%. Dozens upon dozens of stocks have been beaten down

unmercifully. Apple is now -38% off of its bull market highs, General Motors -47%, Morgan Stanley -46%,

Countrywide Financial -88%, Fanny Mae -68%, Google -40%, Freddy Mac -71%, Bear Stearns -58%, Schering

Plough -39%, Circuit City -86%, Office Depot -74%, Citigroup -61%, Dillards -58%, American Express -36%,
Bank of America -32%, Home Depot -40%, Merck -29%, and Intel -28% to name a few. For the year-to-date
only 4 stocks out of the Dow 30 are above water.

One of the more spectacular declines is Thornburg Mortgage listed on the NYSE, which has dropped -81% over

the last 4 trading sessions. Thornburg, founded in 1992, is based in New Mexico and operates as a single family

residential mortgage lending company. It certainly appears that the officers and directors at the helm of Thornburg

did not understand the magnitude of the mortgage crisis as they bought millions of dollars worth of their

company's stock at prices ranging from the high 20’s to the low teens over the past year. Thornburg closed today
at 1.68.

With the economy hitting the skids, the Federal Reserve has aggressively slashed interest rates. The yield on 3

month U.S. Treasury Bills have fallen from 4.88% on July 27, 2007 to a current reading of 1.49%. The Fed’s next

FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 18th and it is anticipated that they will cut rates again. Lower rates should

eventually help the economy and provide a boost to the stock market but it does not mean it will happen overnight.

During the last bear market (March 24th, 2000 to October 9th, 2002) the yield on 3 month U.S. Treasury bills fell
from 5.72% to 1.53% and the S&P 500 still plunged 49%. The last three bear markets lasted 929 days (3/24/00
to 10/9/02), 87 days (7/16/90 to 10/11/90) and 101 days (8/25/87 to 12/4/87).

Despite these efforts, the economy has yet to respond and still faces considerable headwinds. In fact, based on

recent data, the economy has weakened and many economists believe the country is already in or on the brink of

a recession.

According to my tracking the SPX, Nasdaq, NDX, and RUT closed today at their lows since last summer's/fall's highs. The DJI is 0.58% above its 1/22/08 closing low. Using the definition of a drop from market highs of 20%, the SPX and DJI still have not dropped 20%, for whatever that is worth.

The market is again getting rather oversold in here. If one is longer-term bearish and holds positions that are not likely to be money-makers if the markets continue lower, a bounce upwards here could offer an opportunity to lighten up long positions.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bearish Information Re. Carl Swenlin

Swenlin runs decisionpoint.com as I understand it, and I guess he makes some of his money from those who subscribe to his data/charting service, which I've said before I looked at once on a free trial but considered it was more information that I wished to sort through.

Here is a link to a "radio" interview he does with a guy Ike Iosiff (who has a speech impediment I believe or a foreign accent making one to have to listen closely to what he asks Swenlin) about once a month.

Swenlin is a pretty sharp technical analyst as best I can tell and has apparently a lot of mechanical systems that get him in and out of market swings in various sectors.

In this interview, which I didn't remember to time--but it isn't too long and contains no bullshit, he is clear that the US is in a bear market, gold and commodities are in parabolic moves, oil appears to continue to move up, and the dollar does not look good.

I think one can begin to learn a bit about charting and indicators from listening to these period interviews of Swenlin by Iosiff and following the charts that Swenlin puts up at the link and discusses.