Bullish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

I was too busy lately to frequent iTulip but I'm surprised by little activity on this thread.
It turns out that several bloggers and high caliber (often contrarian) analysts with amazing track records stated last week (even before the infamous "no short" Friday) that this is either a major turning point in the markets (aka start of a new bull) or at least immediate tradable bottom with several weeks if not months of rally.
These folks included Bill Cara, Marc Faber, Jeff Saut, and David Bensimon.
Some of the links:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/.../index/a/19109
http://www.billcara.com/archives/200...8_20.html#more
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...DHyHg0QFIg.asf

All those imputs alligned perfectly with my sentiment trading and I closed short positions and went long last thursday when VIX spiked to 42. So far so good in all of my investment themes: equities, PM, miners, energy, and short bond. This was my most profitable day ever investing. Some equity selling today but expect to see a healthy rebound tomorrow.

Good luck!

jacek, there hasn't been that much bullish info that I've encountered. If you are running across it, then pop in here more often and put it up.

You seem ecstatic. My experience, which may be unique, is when I have felt ecstatic with regard to my market positioning, next thing I know I get my ass kicked. Hang loose, and good luck.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

jacek, there hasn't been that much bullish info that I've encountered. If you are running across it, then pop in here more often and put it up.

You seem ecstatic. My experience, which may be unique, is when I have felt ecstatic with regard to my market positioning, next thing I know I get my ass kicked. Hang loose, and good luck.

You were right, I should have taken the profit on equities on friday. On the other hand, the PM action exceeded my expectation.

BTW, I have one more link re: bullish posture in addition to the above ones. This one is from your favorite blog:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...19_bottom.html

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

You were right, I should have taken the profit on equities on friday. On the other hand, the PM action exceeded my expectation.

BTW, I have one more link re: bullish posture in addition to the above ones. This one is from your favorite blog:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...19_bottom.html

I don't know that Swenlin is my favorite anything, but I think he puts up clear analyses, and I don' think his articles seem to hyping any investment product, besides showing his stuff as examples of what can be done on his site. I think he is a reasonable analyst.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

What happened with the thread losing the sticky status? I hope it was not precipitated by my posting of the links!

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

What happened with the thread losing the sticky status? I hope it was not precipitated by my posting of the links!

What happened to the threads period? Where are they? Only FRED knows.

[Supercilious]

Re: Bullish Information

What happened to the threads period? Where are they? Only FRED knows.

Jim please don't tell me you did whisper again unpleasant things to the ears of the Party !

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Hussman has turned bullish now:
http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc081006.htm

Looks like dumb money were selling this AM and smart money were buying this PM.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

This is the most bullish info I've seen recently:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...lish-sign.html

The big picture blog was very in front of the curve and was blasting warning about economy and stocks since early to mid 2007. That blog together with itulip and Mark Faber convinced me of the top and made me rearrange my retirement funds (in retrospect, I wish my timings were better).

Now, big picture is considering seriously the bullish cause. Marc Faber admits hugely oversold markets and anticipates a powerful rebound. It would be nice if EJ gave as a blessing with a reflation signal of some sort.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

This is the most bullish info I've seen recently:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...lish-sign.html

The big picture blog was very in front of the curve and was blasting warning about economy and stocks since early to mid 2007. That blog together with itulip and Mark Faber convinced me of the top and made me rearrange my retirement funds (in retrospect, I wish my timings were better).

Now, big picture is considering seriously the bullish cause. Marc Faber admits hugely oversold markets and anticipates a powerful rebound. It would be nice if EJ gave as a blessing with a reflation signal of some sort.

I read somewhere a note by Ritholz from Tuesday past, I believe, where he wrote something like he was going to "stick a toe into the water," i.e. buy into the market's decline. He got creamed, I presume, less than I hopefully, but to consider bullishness right now in my opinion (and of course I ain't Ritholz, Faber, or EJ in anyone's wildest dreams) should be nothing more than a hopeful play for a bounce, which in time to come may well be looked back on as another bear market rally in this one year bear market, and one year is not that long.

Take responsibility for your own decisions, and to hell with seeking EJ's or anyone else's blessings. Thinking about all the crappy financial dealings that have gone on for years, and to entertain a notion that with this drop, as severe as it has been, it likely the end of the world's markets' reaction is to me hoping for too much. Look just back to the action from 2000 to 2003, and look at the 1929 crash; serious recovery took months or years, but with some playable rallies. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p..._mw&refer=home titled "World May Be Lucky to Escape With Worst Recession in 25 Years"


I'm totally for anyone who wishes to play bear market rallies, but I expect it is going to be a while before serious capitulation occurs. Look on MarketWatch now and read Hulbert's http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...6602A1B4EC7%7D latest note as another example, as I take it, of lack of capitulation.

And, jacek, I still am not buying the argument you put forth with whatever outfit's data saying the AAII is most oversold since the 90's, was it alledged since the early 90's? If it is correct, it should be shown why.

[metalman]

Re: Bullish Information

I read somewhere a note by Ritholz from Tuesday past, I believe, where he wrote something like he was going to "stick a toe into the water," i.e. buy into the market's decline. He got creamed, I presume, less than I hopefully, but to consider bullishness right now in my opinion (and of course I ain't Ritholz, Faber, or EJ in anyone's wildest dreams) should be nothing more than a hopeful play for a bounce, which in time to come may well be looked back on as another bear market rally in this one year bear market, and one year is not that long.

Take responsibility for your own decisions, and to hell with seeking EJ's or anyone else's blessings. Thinking about all the crappy financial dealings that have gone on for years, and to entertain a notion that with this drop, as severe as it has been, it likely the end of the world's markets' reaction is to me hoping for too much. Look just back to the action from 2000 to 2003, and look at the 1929 crash; serious recovery took months or years, but with some playable rallies. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p..._mw&refer=home titled "World May Be Lucky to Escape With Worst Recession in 25 Years"


I'm totally for anyone who wishes to play bear market rallies, but I expect it is going to be a while before serious capitulation occurs. Look on MarketWatch now and read Hulbert's http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...6602A1B4EC7%7D latest note as another example, as I take it, of lack of capitulation.

And, jacek, I still am not buying the argument you put forth with whatever outfit's data saying the AAII is most oversold since the 90's, was it alledged since the early 90's? If it is correct, it should be shown why.

no acknowledgment that ej stuck to his guns throughout this while others kept calling for a bounce?

how's your draw down doing?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

no acknowledgment that ej stuck to his guns throughout this while others kept calling for a bounce?

how's your draw down doing?

Posted on 'how one ituliper is invested .'

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

and look at the 1929 crash; serious recovery took months or years, but with some playable rallies.

Yes, I'm looking for a playable rally, like the one from November 13 1929 to April 1930 (up 48%). After the October 1929 crash, the market had become very oversold, thus, a technical rally was natural. This is what we have now.

[bart]

Re: Bullish Information

An update on a chart created last Feb:

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Info from a proprietary source (dated today):
USA investor allocation is 37% cash, 19% bonds, 44% stocks (peak in 2007 was 70% and 78% in 2000).
This mirrors levels of Oct 2002 and Jan 1991. This will be a fast and furious rally, even if just a bear rally. I like Bart's resistance line that agrees with my 1100-1200 target. Good luck!

[metalman]

Re: Bullish Information

Info from a proprietary source (dated today):
USA investor allocation is 37% cash, 19% bonds, 44% stocks (peak in 2007 was 70% and 78% in 2000).
This mirrors levels of Oct 2002 and Jan 1991. This will be a fast and furious rally, even if just a bear rally. I like Bart's resistance line that agrees with my 1100-1200 target. Good luck!

given the record of trades you shared with us, are you sure you want to do that?

3 things that can happen to a market that is this far down in two days...
1. it can go up
2. it can go nowhere
3. it can go down some more