Bullish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information rE. Dollar:Yen

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...tds&refer=home

Dollar to Rise Against Emerging Markets, Morgan Stanley Says

By Jamie McGee
July 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. dollar will appreciate against most emerging market currencies as their economies are hurt by rising energy prices, according to a Morgan Stanley.

The dollar will also strengthen to $1.53 against the euro by year-end and $1.40 by the end of 2009, Morgan Stanley's chief currency strategist Stephen Jen wrote. The research note was released yesterday after the European Central Bank's quarter- percentage point increase in its benchmark loan rate to 4.25 percent. Jen also forecast the dollar will trade at 97 yen by January and at 110 by the end of 2009.

``While the dollar may remain somewhat vulnerable against the euro in the near term, we continue to believe that the dollar is grossly under-valued and should perform better over the longer term against the majors,'' London-based Jen said. ``It is the oil price issue that will likely cause the emerging- market dominos to topple over. Euroland will likely follow.''

Crude oil rose above $145 a barrel yesterday to a record amid signs global demand for fuels, particularly from China, may strain supplies.

The euro fell the most against the dollar in more than two months after Trichet signaled that he may not increase interest rates again. The euro dropped 1.1 percent to $1.5703 yesterday in New York, from $1.5882 on July 2. The dollar appreciated 0.8 percent to 106.73 yen, from 105.91.

If dollar should depreciate from its close today of 106.77/US$ to 97/UD$ that would translate into about a 10% gain in FXY over the next six months.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Soros vs. Kaletsky

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/w...roundtable.pdf

Bullish comments on the US economy right now are as rare as hen's teeth.

Below is how George Soros and Anatole Kaletsky see things.

JONATHAN FORD (CHAIR): I wantto start by asking where we are in the crisis. Is it over? George Soros, you have said that this is the worst crisis we have been through for 60 years. Presumably you still believe that there is worse to come?

GEORGE SOROS: There is now a widespread belief that the crisis is over. I think, on the contrary, that the effect on the real economy is yet to be felt. The measures taken by the authorities will not bring recovery. There are four reasons for this. First, the fall in house prices in the US is only halfway over and in Britain it has hardly begun. Second, consumers have been slow to adjust their spending habits, but this is about to happen. Third, the financial system is severely wounded, and even though banks have been remarkably successful at raising more equity, they will cut back on lending and this will feed through to capital spending and business activity. Finally, and most important, there is a threat of inflation at the same time as a slowdown. The rise in energy and food prices will turn the slowdown into a recession.

ANATOLE KALETSKY:I agree with George that the threat of inflation is potentially the most alarming new factor in this crisis, but I would challenge the other three points. The worst is over in the real economy in the US, although not yet in Britain and Europe. US house prices do not have much further to fall, and consumer spending will hold up. While there are, indeed, several trillion dollars of consumer spending to come out of the system, the impact may be quite comfortably spread over many years. And while the financial system has been wounded, the bank writedowns—in the US at least—have already gone beyond what is plausible in terms of likely losses. There is one shoe that has yet to drop: the continental European banks, which have not recognised the losses to the same extent.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Investors Intelligence Data

Here's a bit I copied from today's The Chartist monthly newletter regarding Mike Burke's Investors Intelligence data.

QUOTE=Burke & Gray via The Chartist

"The advisors continued to run for the hills as market
averages moved lower to break important support
levels. The bulls fell to 27.4% from 31.9% last week
and 44.8% at the end of May. To find a more
pessimistic reading, you have to go all the way back to
early July 1994 when the bulls were below 25%.

"The bears advanced to 47.3% from 44.7% a week ago.
Their number was below 30% in May but we currently
see their highest reading since September 1998 where

one week it achieved 47.5%.

"Many advisors are trend followers and don’t want to

be bullish in a bear market. Of course, the definition of

a bear market is a decline of 20%, or more, from the
highs and more and more indexes have now
accomplished that.

"The remaining 25.3% of the advisors are classified as
correction. That was up from 23.4% a week ago and it
is typical for some bulls to shift to correction prior to
becoming outright bears.

"The advisory sentiment readings are getting more
positive and stronger. The current plethora of seemingly
endless bad news is what you see at market bottoms.
Every small negative event is magnified and extended to
other parties even if the individual situations are
different. Traders don’t want the small chance of the
problems spreading to other areas of their portfolios
and hence they dump almost everything.

"Last week saw crude oil end at its highest level ever,
above $145. A drop below $140 on Monday provided
only a small market boost and that faded on new credit
woes. Again that failure to react to good signs is typical
of a bear market.

"Our short term indicators tuned negative just after the
May highs and they are now broadly oversold, at the
low levels shown in January and March 2008 and
August 2007 prior to that. They are now working on
bases. Longer term indicators are also oversold and
down to prior bottom levels. The sentiment has now
exceeded the readings from October 2002, which was
the middle of a nine-month bottoming process from
July 2002 through March 2003. The last six months of
Presidential Election years traditionally see rallies, and
with the current increased bearishness and lack of bulls,
a rally is looking a very high probability in the second
half of 2008.

"The difference between the bulls and bears improved to
-19.9%, from -12.8% a week ago. Those readings are
even better than those shown at the March low when
the spread was -13.8%. The current run of negative
differences has also exceeded the streak of negative
spreads from October 2002. These levels show a major
contraction from the very negative 42.4% spread that
occurred with the early October 2007 index high. Chart
extremes signal market turnarounds but movement

rarely occurs in straight lines.

Below are the II data for the last year. I believe them to be correct, but they might not be.

	SPX	BULLS	BEARS	Bu-Br	Correction
07/13/07	1552.50	52.3	19.3	33.0	28.4
07/20/07	1534.10	53.9	18.0	35.9	28.1
07/27/07	1458.95	47.2	26.4	20.8	26.4
08/03/07	1433.06	43.8	31.5	12.3	24.7
08/10/07	1453.64	43.8	32.6	11.2	23.6
08/17/07	1445.94	40.6	37.4	3.2	22.0
08/24/07	1479.37	41.7	37.4	4.3	20.9
08/31/07	1473.99	42.9	37.4	5.5	19.7
09/07/07	1453.55	48.3	31.0	17.3	20.7
09/14/07	1484.25	53.9	27.0	26.9	19.1
09/21/07	1525.75	55.6	25.6	30.0	18.8
09/28/07	1526.75	56.5	25.0	31.5	18.5
10/05/07	1557.59	60.2	21.5	38.7	18.3
10/12/07	1561.80	62.0	19.3	42.7	18.7
10/19/07	1500.63	56.5	22.9	33.6	20.6
10/26/07	1535.28	53.8	23.1	30.7	23.1
11/02/07	1509.65	54.5	22.2	32.3	23.3
11/09/07	1453.70	51.1	26.7	24.4	22.2
11/16/07	1458.74	47.9	26.6	21.3	25.5
11/23/07	1440.70	47.3	29.0	18.3	23.7
11/30/07	1481.14	49.4	27.6	21.8	23.0
12/07/07	1504.66	53.3	25.6	27.7	21.1
12/14/07	1467.95	56.5	22.4	34.1	21.1
12/21/07	1484.46	54.9	23.1	31.8	22.0
12/28/07	1479.49	52.2	24.5	27.7	23.3
01/04/08	1411.63	48.5	25.8	22.7	25.7
01/11/08	1401.02	45.6	26.7	18.9	27.7
01/18/08	1325.19	41.6	31.5	10.1	26.9
01/25/08	1330.61	40.2	32.2	8.0	27.6
02/01/08	1395.42	41.6	32.6	9.0	25.8
02/08/08	1331.29	36.7	35.6	1.1	27.7
02/15/08	1349.99	41.6	33.7	7.9	24.7
02/22/08	1353.11	42.0	36.4	5.6	21.6
02/29/08	1330.63	41.3	36.2	5.1	22.5
03/07/08	1293.37	31.1	43.3	-12.2	25.6
03/14/08	1288.14	30.9	44.7	-13.8	24.4
03/20/08	1329.51	36.7	41.1	-4.4	22.2
03/28/08	1315.32	36.4	37.5	-1.1	26.1
04/04/08	1370.40	37.4	38.5	-1.1	24.1
04/11/08	1332.83	37.8	37.4	0.4	24.8
04/18/08	1390.33	37.8	38.9	-1.1	23.3
04/25/08	1397.84	40.9	31.8	9.1	27.3
05/02/08	1413.90	44.4	32.3	12.1	23.3
05/09/08	1388.28	46.0	29.9	16.1	24.1
05/16/08	1425.35	47.3	30.8	16.5	21.9
05/23/08	1375.93	37.9	32.2	5.7	29.9
05/30/08	1400.38	44.8	31.1	13.7	24.1
06/06/08	1360.68	43.0	32.6	10.4	24.4
06/13/08	1360.03	36.3	37.4	-1.1	26.3
06/20/08	1317.93	33.7	39.3	-5.6	27.0
06/27/08	1278.38	31.9	44.7	-12.8	23.4
07/03/08	1262.23	27.4	47.3	-19.9	25.3
07/11/08	1252.72

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. $/Eur

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cnspain111.xml
Spain pulls bond sale amid economic crisis
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard


Last Updated: 12:34am BST 11/07/2008



Snip:

It is unclear how Spanish authorities could conduct a rescue operation along the lines of Bear Stearns, given that there is no clear lender of last resort in the eurozone system. Fears the Bank of Spain could find itself hamstrung in a crisis have begun to unsettle investors.

Elsewhere in Europe, growth is now slowing across the board as the strong euro takes it toll. French industrial output fell 2.6pc in May, and in Germany it was down 2.4pc. Elga Bartsch, from Morgan Stanley, said Germany's resilience "seems to be melting away" as exports stall.
Europe's Aerospace and Defence Industries Association yesterday held a meeting with ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet to express "deep concern" over the euro exchange rate, now widely believed to be 25pc overvalued against the dollar bloc.

They believe the ECB could steer down the euro if it gave a clear signal that the tightening cycle is over.

[bart]

Re: Bullish Information Re. $/Eur

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cnspain111.xml
Spain pulls bond sale amid economic crisis
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard


Last Updated: 12:34am BST 11/07/2008

Originally Posted by Evans-Pritchard
It is unclear how Spanish authorities could conduct a rescue operation along the lines of Bear Stearns, given that there is no clear lender of last resort in the eurozone system. Fears the Bank of Spain could find itself hamstrung in a crisis have begun to unsettle investors.

Elsewhere in Europe, growth is now slowing across the board as the strong euro takes it toll. French industrial output fell 2.6pc in May, and in Germany it was down 2.4pc. Elga Bartsch, from Morgan Stanley, said Germany's resilience "seems to be melting away" as exports stall.
Europe's Aerospace and Defence Industries Association yesterday held a meeting with ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet to express "deep concern" over the euro exchange rate, now widely believed to be 25pc overvalued against the dollar bloc.

They believe the ECB could steer down the euro if it gave a clear signal that the tightening cycle is over.

There's a few facts that aren't at all widely known about the ECB (European Central Bank) and their actual support actions (not unlike how the Fed is not well understood), and in the context of the above comment "no clear lender of last resort in the eurozone system".

One of the primary tools of any central bank is something called Open Market Operations, or OMOs. Very roughly, they're monetary injections (loans) to help manage or control/manipulate the banking and monetary system of their country or area.

• The ECB GDP is about 30% larger than the US GDP,
• Total OMOs of the Fed have been in the $250-300 billion range for over 6 months.
• Total OMOs of the ECB have been in the $650-775 billion during the same period, which is approximately 1.8 times what the Fed total has been... after the 30% adjustment for GDP differences.

In other words, the ECB has been "supporting" the Euro area much more than the Fed has been "supporting" the US.

I was not happy to see how Mr. Evans-Pritchard and others have glossed over and failed to note this highly important set of facts. While its true that the ECB is not officially a lender of last resort, actual practice shows that they not only are one but that their actions show their concerns are much greater about the Euro area than the Fed's are about the US.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information RE: Beyond Scary

Cub Markets and Bear Markets. Cub Market = 20% declines when there is no recession.

Thomas Lee of JP Morgan says on July 8th we aren't in a recession, and he offers his perspective. If Lee is correct, then he contends this is a Cub Bear market.

Interesting point of view when there is nothing but pervasive doom and gloom.

Video 4 minutes or less.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...us6nqpbFQI.asf

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. US in Recession

Though EJ I believe has said we began a recession at the end of Q407, there is still argument among some on Wall Street (see above post).

Below is what the Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg thinks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...nusecon108.xml

James Quinn (Telegraph): Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg – US is in recession
“The United States remains firmly in an economic recession in spite of economic growth figures to the contrary, a leading economist has warned.

“Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg, the first economist from a major bank to declare a US recession was underway back in early January, argues that recent unemployment figures show yet more evidence that the US economy is a deep recession.

“Pointing to last week’s news that employment has now declined for six months in a row, Mr Rosenberg, Merrill’s chief North American economist, says that ‘at no time in the past 50 years has this happened without the economy being in an official recession.’

“The typical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, something which the US has yet to have. However he argues that this is only a matter of time, given that all four recession determinants ‘have peaked and rolled over’.

“He points to widespread decline in economic activity, noting that real sales in manufacturing and retail, employment, industrial production, and real personal income – the four determinants – are all way below their peaks.

“The Merrill Lynch economist estimates that monthly GDP ‘peaked in January and has declined at a 2.2% annual rate since that time,’ noting that he believes that the recession started between October and February.

“‘We expect the real GDP data are going to undergo massive revisions, and in fact, that we are going to be on the receiving end of what could be a significant revision on July 31,’ Mr Rosenberg argues, suggesting that these revisions will point to the onset of recession.”

Click here for a full research report by Rosenberg.
Source: James Quinn, Telegraph, July 8, 2008.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Drop in Emergency Loans

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080710/fed_credit_crisis.html

Jeannine Aversa 7/10/2008

Yahoo News: Investment firms don’t draw emergency loans

“In a sign of some improvement in the credit crisis, Wall Street firms for the first time didn’t borrow from the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending program and commercial banks also scaled back.

“Investment firms didn’t draw such loans for the week ending July 9. They borrowed just $1.7 billion in the previous week ending July 2, down from $6.1 billion in the week before that. Such borrowing rose as high as $38.1 billion in early April.

“The Fed opened its emergency program to investment firms on March 17. At that time, the investment houses were given similar loan privileges as commercial banks after a run on Bear Stearns pushed the nation’s fifth-largest investment bank to the brink of bankruptcy.

“Banks, meanwhile, averaged $12.9 billion in daily borrowing over the past week. That compared with $14.9 billion in the previous week.

“The identities of commercial banks and investment houses are not released.”


"In the broadest use of the central bank's lending power since the 1930s, the Fed in March scrambled to avert a market meltdown by giving investment houses a place to go for emergency overnight loans. The program will continue for at least six months. Commercial banks and investment companies now pay 2.25 percent in interest for the loans.

"Separately, as part of efforts to relieve credit strains, the Fed auctioned $21.3 billion in Treasury securities to investment companies Thursday.

"The auction drew bids for less than the $25 billion the Fed was making available, which was viewed as possible sign of some improvements in credit conditions.

"In exchange for the 28-day loans of Treasury securities, bidding companies can put up as collateral more risky investments. These include certain mortgage-backed securities and bonds secured by federally guaranteed student loans.
"The auction program, which began March 27, is intended to make investment companies more inclined to lend to each other. A second goal is providing relief to the distressed market for mortgage-linked securities and for student loans.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Downside Risks now.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...008/#more-1575

SmartMoney: Bear Market – Where do we go from here?

“Leuthold Group last week, in the context of a ‘neutral’ market view, told clients: ‘Our valuation models are indicating that there is not a huge amount of downside risk.’ Since 1945, the firm said, ‘70% of all bear markets bottomed out with P/E ratios around the historical median of 17.3-times normalized earnings.’ The market P/E on Leuthold’s ‘normalized’ profits was 17.3 at June 30.

“Normalized and median precedents and 70% tendencies can be useful. But they don’t help in preventing those overshoots.”

Source: SmartMoney, July 7, 2008.

As an aside, I wish I had documented all references I've crossed that either suggest or state emphatically that the recovery from wherever the current equity markets' declines may end will be led an upturn in the US bank indices. I watch $BKX. However, it seems someone suggested another leader would emerge, and I don't recall who might have stated that or what would be the leader. Perhaps I dreamed it.

Here what David Fuller wrote on du Plessis' weekly review.

Until the US bank indices bottom out, I will remain wary, oversold and short covering induced technical rallies aside. I fear that the potential for US economic growth has been impaired, and … I do not see why the USD should recover against this background, which will almost certainly include at least a semi-nationalisation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Saut of Raymond James

This guy persists in tending the most toward bullishness right now, moreso than anyone else I cross.

From du Plessis.

Jeffrey Saut (Raymond James): Great time to be an investor

“We began this week’s report with a quote from The Wall Street Journal that read, ‘The nerves mean not panicking or getting swayed by fear, at the bottom, or greed, at the top.’ Last November we wrote about the Dow Theory ‘sell signal’ when prices were high yet participants wanted to ‘buy’. Now we are writing about the Dow Theory downside non-confirmation and prices are low yet participants want to let stocks ‘go’ (read: sell stocks).

“Meanwhile, it is session 33 in the ‘selling stampede’, our proprietary oversold indicator is more oversold than it was at the March 2003 ‘low’ (we were bullish there as well), the spread between Lowry’s Buying Power Index (demand) and Lowry’s Selling Pressure Index (supply) is the widest in the 75-year history of Lowry’s (indicating that stocks are severely oversold), corporate insiders’ selling is at rock-bottom lows, and we are seeing numerous indices not confirming the D-J Industrial’s ‘downside dive’.

“It’s not that we are turning aggressively bullish, but we think that unless the markets are in ‘crash mode’ it is time to consider a corrective stock market rally as B.J Thomas warms up in the wings with the song ‘Raindrops’.”

Source: Jeffrey Saut, Raymond James, July 7, 2008.

That was written last Monday. Now the SPX is 37 days into the current decline. Its decline from 10/9/07 to 11/26/07 lasted 33 days and was the previous longest period of decline since October 2007.

The DJI SPX and $XVG have reached new lows as of Friday 7/11/08. The RUT, which had a gain for the week, NDX and Nasdaq's lows from 3/10/08 still hold, and these indices are 4.81%, 8.24%, and 3.21% off those lows.

I'll reference in the bearish thread shortly a comment this weekend by Mike Burk who noted that "By all meaures [historically] the coming week has been one of the worst of the year."

Edit: Saut was referencing the SPX as opposed to my first writing it was the DJI. Actually Friday for the DJI was its 48th day from its top of 1305.82 on 5/2/08. Its decline from Oct 9 to 11/26 was the same as the SPX's in days: 33.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. UBS Bullish Analyst.

Well here is another bull--David Bianco of UBS--noting 25-30% increase in SPX in what's left of 2008--target 1650. WOW!!

It is 4:28 minute video http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=787788768 that was apparently recorded 7/7/2008.

I have a bit of optimism personally that there may be a bounce-back bear market rally in here (while also being fearful that the markets could perhaps crash next week). I'm glad I don't have these guy's jobs regardless of what they get paid. Either his work will turn out to be very good or very bad, or I guess we could end the year where we are. I understood he was suggesting a rally from current levels.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Maund on Gold and Silver

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10735.htm Gold 7/13/08

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10734.htm Silver

Both articles document the technical breakouts of the metals and first article also discusses that US$ once it breaks the March lows and the 70 level should accelerate to the down side.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. One guy says buy SPY.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html

Steve Todd 7/16/08


Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Wednesday (07/16/08) Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific. DOW + 275 on 1600 net advances NASDAQ COMP. + 69 on 1600 net advances SHORT TERM TREND Bullish INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bearish

We believe that the stock market made a low on Tuesday. It's true that we don't yet have a high above a previous high on the charts and maybe we're jumping the gun again, but there are several factors that are leading us in that direction.

First crude oil had another sharp drop and has now closed below the 135 level mentioned in yesterday's update. This suggests that crude has further to drop which should help stocks. The catalyst was a considerably better than expected oil inventory report.


We also liked the fact that the new lows had a major spike yesterday to over 1200. I think that this may be the most new lows ever. We see this in the chart shown to e-mail subscribers. Previous such spikes have tended to occur at tradable bottoms.

We also should point out that the financials did very well on Wednesday The financial ETF, symbol XLF was higher by 12%. Wells Fargo helped by beating estimates and raising the dividend.

Gold took a solid hit as did bonds. The dollar managed a rally.

I believe the number of new lows yesterday on the NYSE was the all time daily high. It is my opinion that that suggests a retest of yesterday's low at some point,

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Possible interim bottom.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

All below is from Tim Ord's article



When NYSE hits new lows of 1000 or more a bottom is not far off. Yesterday 1304 new 52 week lows where hit on the NYSE and a new record. Also the NYSE 10 DMA of the High Low differential hit below -400 and in an area where bottoms form in the past and is a good check against the new lows of 1000 or more. So there are bullish signs developing. There seem to be no real panic on this decline with so many stocks hitting new lows. The ARMS index closed at .84 and near neutral.

The VIX hit above 30 intraday but closed above 30. The previous lows of this year the VIX hit above 35. Rydex Cash Flow Ratio closed at 1.00. Intermediate term lows form when this ratio is closer to 1.10. Yesterday we mentioned that the 9 month cycle is due to bottom on 9/22/08 which is two months away. There could be a bottom forming here and possibility a re-test of this low in September and the September low may show the signs of panic and a lasting bottom. Also yesterday’s volume has huge and high volume lows get tested at some point. However our trigger for a bottom will be the up turn in the NYSE McClellan Summation index. Still Flat the SPX.

Above [actually it is below this paragraph] is the NYSE Summation index from the period of 1998 to 2000. The 1998 low formed the lowest NYSE Summation index on record with a reading near -3800. The Summation index turned up from that low level and triggered a buy signal. In October, the NYSE went back down and tested that September low and the meat of the rally began then and went up near 40% of the next nine months. Normally Markets do not make spike lows but rather there is a test of spike lows at some point. Since the 9 month cycle is due to bottom in late September, which may be the test of the recent low. Yesterday the NYSE McClellan Summation index closed at -2789.28 and the second most negative reading since 1928. Today’s Summation index remains in a downtrend and has not turned up and therefore no bullish signal has been triggered yet but that may change shortly. Staying flat for now.

[metalman]

Re: Bullish Information Re. One guy says buy SPY.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html

Steve Todd 7/16/08


Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Wednesday (07/16/08) Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific. DOW + 275 on 1600 net advances NASDAQ COMP. + 69 on 1600 net advances SHORT TERM TREND Bullish INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bearish




I believe the number of new lows yesterday on the NYSE was the all time daily high. It is my opinion that that suggests a retest of yesterday's low at some point,

today is a perfect example of why this chartistic 'number of new lows' and 'retest of yesterday's low at some point' crap is crap.

the market went up like nuts because the gov't stepped in and scared shorts to cover.

do the charts predict that?

does no good to ponder the factors of the horse if there's a jockey on its back.