Bullish Information

[zoog]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Hulbert Recession Over?

Jim, don't give up, people read your sticky thread. I guess i's politically incorrect to admit so. As for the short lived recession theory, I love it. I felt for a long time this this 2007/2008 crisis is either 1990-style, short lived, "undeclared" recession (that was bad real estate wise), or a near recession episode like 1997-1998. Long term, big and protracted recession is unavoidable, but it will take a couple more years for the perfect storm to emerge and sink the US and global economies.

Hey Jim I always check the Bullish and Bearish threads when something new is posted.

friendly_jacek, I had to hunt around to find an old post I made, July of last year:

There's still talk out there that the stock market tends to do well in election years. Could that still be a possibility in the midst of such a recession?

My personal take on this has been to expect a relatively mild recession late this year, followed by a weak recovery next year, then followed by a serious crash say 2009 or so. But I'm just an armchair economist, so I trust iTulip analysis and forecasts more than my own.

As time went by and things got worse, I began to doubt my amateur prediction of the mild recession / nominal recovery / big recession. Sometimes, when the market has a notable up day like yesterday, I lean back towards this theory. Bottom line is, I'm not going to start my own website and make confident predictions anytime soon! But as iTulip says about constantly checking and rechecking their theory and for any indication that the situation has changed, I think it is always beneficial to read what other people are saying out there.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Sy Harding observation of facts.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html

Whether or not Harding's recounting of this past week's events and their little effects on the equity markets proves to be bullish remains to be seen. I think it is worth considering that despite "an avalanche" of bad news not only on Friday, but for many weeks, the market did not cave-in this week but rather moved up rather sharply.

By Sy Harding
IT WAS A TEFLON MARKET THIS WEEK!

..on Monday the financial media was fueling worry, making much of the scary sounding fact that the first quarter was the worst quarter for the stock market since the serious bear market in 2002.

On Tuesday, the first day of the new quarter, one of the world's largest investment banks, UBS, reported it lost $12 billion in the 1st quarter, on a write-down of another $19 billion in illiquid real estate assets. Deutsche Bank warned it will write down another $4 billion of similarly depressed assets. Reports showed auto sales fell by double-digit percentages in March. Morgan Stanley potentially poured fuel on a fire by warning that the world faces the most severe investment banking crisis in 30 years. A couple of months ago those kinds of reports might have sent the Dow down 500 points or more. It closed up 391 points.
On Wednesday came the report that factory orders fell 1.3% in February. In testimony before Congress Fed Chairman Bernanke stalled the market for awhile by saying for the first time that the U.S. might be headed into a recession, and speaking "of a very difficult time" for the U.S. economy. The International Monetary Fund reported it had lowered its economic forecasts for the U.S.
On Thursday, came the report that new unemployment claims jumped an unexpected 38,000 last week. And the bad news became an avalanche on Friday.

The latest New York Times/CBS News poll was released showing that a record 81% of Americans are unhappy with the country's direction.
The nervously awaited monthly jobs report was a shocker, showing 80,000 jobs were lost in March. Even worse, the previously announced numbers for January and February were revised downward by a total of 67,000 jobs. So over the three months of the first quarter a total of 232,000 jobs were lost
Lehman Bros. released a forecast that total global write-offs by financial institutions could reach $400 billion by the end of 2008

And the 1^st quarter earnings reporting period did not seem to get off to a good start, a lot of disappointing earnings, losses, and warnings of losses so far.

It was indeed a heavy load of economic worries. Yet they slid off the back of the stock market without leaving so much as a scratch. As mentioned, the Dow closed up 3.2% for the week. The S&P 500 closed up 4.2%, and the Nasdaq up 4.8%

The markets ability to climb such a wall of worry, especially its lack of concern over Friday's employment report, was impressive. But the continued mediocre volume indicates it wasn't new sideline money flowing in.

Was it just the temporary influence of the automatic in-flow of money in the market's brief 'monthly strength period'? Or was the market's early March low the launching platform for a sustainable rally for a change?
Stay tuned!

The only thing about which I disagree with Harding is his description of the volume being "mediocre." For the past two weeks NYSE volume has really sucked, but has just sucked on the Nasdaq.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Sy Harding observation of facts.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html

Whether or not Harding's recounting of this past week's events and their little effects on the equity markets proves to be bullish remains to be seen. I think it is worth considering that despite "an avalanche" of bad news not only on Friday, but for many weeks, the market did not cave-in this week but rather moved up rather sharply.

By Sy Harding
IT WAS A TEFLON MARKET THIS WEEK!



The only thing about which I disagree with Harding is his description of the volume being "mediocre." For the past two weeks NYSE volume has really sucked, but has just sucked on the Nasdaq.

For those few not keeping up, volume this week on NASDAQ was worst since weekending 10/5/07 (excepting xmas week) which was the week before the highs so far in the DJI and SPX and about three weeks before NASDAQ topped. For the NYSE it was the worst week since weekending 10/12/08 again except for xmas week. In retrospect, the low volume in October supported that the moves up in equities was not supported.

I guess one could deduce the same for the this week's equity losses of -2-3% of the indices I track, there was no support in volume. In January at the lows there were big spikes in volume at lows as well as in August 07 in Nasdaq and NYSE ($NYA).

My opinion is that if the equity markets are headed for at least some sort of retest of Jan and March lows it should be manifested by some serious increase in volume. The other side of the coin is that further declines in here to area of previous lows could break through them.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re: LONG DOLLAR, ANYONE?

By Sy Harding
IT'S TIME TO STOP THE DOLLAR'S PLUNGE! April 11, 2008.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html

There are those who think endless trends rather than cycles, who claim the dollar is toast. But that's always the claim when any asset, the stock market, gold, real estate, or any currency, has been plunging for a number of years. Sentiment becomes extremely bearish and the prevailing thought becomes that there can be no recovery.

There are also those who claim there's nothing anyone can do about the plunging dollar, that central bank intervention would not work.


But history says otherwise.
.
.
In most previous intervention episodes, the country of the targeted currency did most of the 'heavy lifting'. So it is imperative that the U.S.

What would it mean for investors?

We don't have a buy signal on the dollar yet on our technical indicators, but we do have a very oversold condition. At some point a position long the dollar is likely to pay off. Such positions are easily accomplished these days with exchange-traded-funds. A simultaneous position short the euro might be just as profitable. But not yet for either one.

I think this is credible thinking, otherwise I wouldn't post it. Bonar up, then those things traded in bonars could decrease. Gold, oil & other commodities.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Interesting and self explanatory chart below supporting Jim's bullish cause (sorry, I but I could not insert the image):
http://bp2.blogger.com/_7VHLCUlm_9o/...NYSE041108.gif

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Interesting and self explanatory chart below supporting Jim's bullish cause (sorry, I but I could not insert the image):
http://bp2.blogger.com/_7VHLCUlm_9o/...NYSE041108.gif

Nice chart, f-j, but oh, did it wear me out to have to click the link!

If "Jim" above refers to me which I guess it may, I'm "bearish" and in some inverse funds since 4/10/08, and added to them today. Equity markets are not nearly oversold right now, nor do they have to become oversold, but there is lots of room to move down more as I see it. The last 90% volume and points day was a negative one on 4/11/08, following three positive ones that began on 3/11/08 that got up to a peak (?temporary or not, I know not) on 4/4 and that was a rally that lasted 18 days. We not seen much in the way of long lived moves one way or the other since October, but my my reckoning using planetary alignment and the positions of the cervical vertebrae of a Rhode Island Red rooster tossed over my left shoulder from an old New Orleans coffee can, my bet is some more downside and perhaps a retest of the Jan and March lows. Having written that one should tighten their seatbelts for a upward blast off tomorrow.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Having written that one should tighten their seatbelts for a upward blast off tomorrow.

Ha, ha, ha.
The blast off happened today, you were off just one day.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Ha, ha, ha.
The blast off happened today, you were off just one day.

Yes, I have been sitting here cussing most of today--you know, having my short ass handed to me so to speak.

I'm thinking you watch the market as much or more than I do, so this should not come as new information to you, f-j.

The TRANS broke out above all prices back to August 10th. The other equity indices I follow DJI, SPX, NASDAQ, NDX, RUT, VGY are 1.7% to 2.8% below what will represent some signifcant breakouts from the trading range back to Feb 1 as far as highs are concerned. Actually the NDX has broken those older highs and now faces getting above its high of 4/7/08.

Another possible positive, besides everything going up, is the VIX broke rather decisively below its 200 DMA which is has not done since summer of 2006 (if I looking at the lines correctly) when the equity markets launched on a big move up--actually having begun in that summer.

Volume is still punk for the last 3 weeks, and this week so far. I don't know how critical that is. Friday is some sort of options expiration day, so volume may pick due to that for Thurs. and Friday.

I guess my bottom line is whether the indices break out of the trading range variably back to 2/1/08. If they do, I take my wounds, bandage them and go long again.

[Guest]

Re: Bullish Information

Yes, I have been sitting here cussing most of today ... indices break out of the trading range variably back to 2/1/08. If they do, I take my wounds, bandage them and go long again.

Don't say you were not warned.

If I were day trading like you do, I think I would succumb to depression, or feelings of soul-emptiness, just from the endless tail-chasing aspect of it. See what the market does? It keeps you buying and selling, year in and year out, chasing it's erratic whims. The markets do this naturally, as a form of breathing - but we humans have to stop breathing, repeatedly, time after time, just to try to keep up with it's herky jerky moves. What a way to live. What a way to invest!

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Don't say you were not warned.

If I were day trading like you do, I think I would succumb to depression, or feelings of soul-emptiness, just from the endless tail-chasing aspect of it. See what the market does? It keeps you buying and selling, year in and year out, chasing it's erratic whims. The markets do this naturally, as a form of breathing - but we humans have to stop breathing, repeatedly, time after time, just to try to keep up with it's herky jerky moves. What a way to live. What a way to invest!

It is truly great stimulation. Wouldn't trade it for anything.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Richard Russell

From Prieur du Plessis http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...2008/#more-962

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Improved stock market outlook

“I like the market’s action. PTI rising, new highs increasing while new lows are contracting, short interest is high and rising, and there’s a lot of disbelief in the market’s being able to move higher. As you know, the more skepticism, the better. The whole market situation looks good to me.

“I’m most interested to see whether Lowry’s Selling Pressure breaks down and whether their Buying Power moves up. A lot of the market’s upside progress has been a result of declining supply, but that’s not enough – demand must pick up if this rise is to continue.

“LATE FLASH AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE MARKET – LOWRY’S ISSUES AN INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUY SIGNAL!”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, April 18, 2008.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Hulbert

Hulbert has not let up recently on writing bullish findings.

MARK HULBERT
Optimistic insiders
Commentary: Corporate insiders on balance are betting on a rising market

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EDT April 22, 2008

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...4F61040F53A%7D

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The last time I checked in with what corporate insiders are buying and selling, in early February, I reported that they were behaving quite bullishly.



Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to a new low in early March and then rallied. Net, the Dow is some 560 points higher now than where it closed on the day my column appeared. See Feb. 5 column

Corporate insiders, of course, are a company's officers, directors, and largest shareholders. Whenever they buy or sell any of their company's shares, they are required to report those transactions more or less immediately to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Many pay close attention to what the insiders are buying and selling, since there is a significant body of research showing that insiders are usually more right than the rest of us.

And, right now, the insiders are sending a very bullish message.
Jonathan Moreland is editor of the Insider Insights newsletter, one of the handful of services I track that monitor the insider transactions that are reported to the SEC. His model portfolio became fully invested in stocks effective with the April 21 issue of his newsletter.

After noting insiders' bullish behavior, Moreland writes: "While we hardly think it's 'all good' on the economic front in the U.S., the price action of numerous indices have become increasingly constructive in recent weeks, despite poor earnings and economic news. That's as clear a sign as any that stocks may be past the worst of this correction. The likelihood of a good old-fashioned correction appears to be particularly low now that the Feds have shown their socialist tendencies during the Bear Stearns crisis."

Another service that carefully monitors the behavior of corporate insiders is the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research. Vickers calculates the ratio of all insider sales over the trailing eight weeks to all insider purchases. For the eight weeks ending mid April, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 1.40-1. Vickers considers any ratio below 2-1 to be bullish.
The comparable ratio when I wrote my Feb. 5 column was 1.39-1. So, for all intents and purposes, insiders on balance are just as bullish today as then. And, as I noted in early February, the last time insiders were as bullish was in November 2002, just after the end of the 2000-2002 bear market.

To be sure, this does not guarantee that the correction that began last fall is over. But the analogy with November 2002 does remind us that a bottoming process can last a number of weeks: Recall that, even though the 2000-2002 bear market's low occurred in October 2002, the market didn't really take off in earnest until March 2003.

The last bit underlined is worth paying attention to, as the SPX still went down ~10% into the March 2003 lows.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

I totally agree. While the markets were very oversold in mid March, some investor indicators did not reach the absolute bottom associated with the market overreaction to recession as we saw last in the end of 1990 or beginning of 2003. On the other hand, 2007 did not see the investor overexuberance typically seen in absolute tops. Either we are not in the recession yet (1998-like episode) or more selling will commence this summer.
Like I said before, I'm still long but steadily decreasing my leverage. Yesterday I sold most of my energy positions.

[Rantly McTirade]

Re: Bullish Information

Hulbert has turned permabull whore, likes cashing Dow Jones/NYT checks.
Doesn't mean particular items he cites are not true or useful-or that they
are.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Hulbert has turned permabull whore, likes cashing Dow Jones/NYT checks.
Doesn't mean particular items he cites are not true or useful-or that they
are.

Who is US seems for the greater part not to be all about making all the money they can, hopefully honestly?

I guess someone can check the insider buying data and refute it if it isn't honestly reported by Hulbert.

Checking his assessment of what the advisors are doing that he tracks would be a bit harder.

My reason for beginning these threads was to provide a chronology to what may have been the outlooks of those who were saying whatever at a particular time. Probably my bias influences what I post, and certainly there are many predictions out there that I never cross, so what I might document is no doubt much less than a complete picture.

Threads are open to all to post things they see as bullish or bearish.

Unless you have hard evidence to support your contention, I think calling Hulbert a "permabull whore" is a bit much.