Bullish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Brimelow discusses Ag/Au

This is a decent article discussing various "experts" impressions on the recent run-up in silver and gold.

PETER BRIMELOW
Gold finishes a fabulous February
Commentary: Now buoyant bugs are turning their attention to other metals

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last update: 9:57 p.m. EST March 2, 2008

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...4FB843905BE%7D

I'd suggest reading the article, but here is a snip which may not be the most important part of Brimelow's discussion.

Perhaps the answer to the question if the shares will notice $975 gold is the same as that provided by The Privateer, discussing the general lack of attention paid by the public to the gold surge: "(In) ... the early 1980s, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was challenging the all-time highs it had set in 1969 and slightly exceeded in 1972-73 ... It took quite a while, until mid-late 1985 in fact, for the majority of people to finally be satisfied that the Dow wasn't going to fail at the 1,000-1,100 level as it had done for the previous 15 years. Once that happened, the markets took off ..."

Privateer's prediction: "That is what is in store for gold, as and when it exceeds $ 1,000 for the first time."

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Jim, thanks for keeping this thread alive.
As we reached the nadir of sentiment, its worth to remind to our fellow itulipers (happily shorting the markets) that we reached historically record sentiment levels comparable to (or even worse in some indicators) Feb 01, Sept 01, or March 03. The short covering alone will produce a powerful pop in equities worldwide. The effect could be short lived but very powerful nevertheless.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

f_j
Thanks, but sometimes I run out of energy. This was never intended to be "my thread." So anytime you run upon something you think pertinent, please do post it so any who care to read here can avail themselves of the information, and that applies to everyone else too.

Nice charts you put up. I wish for the sake of my positioning I did not agree with the message of those charts and other data I track. McClellan oscillator NY-- was -281 on 3/10, Nasdaq McOsc -180, levels that were approximated 11/19 and 8/15 on NYSE, and yesterday was within a nat's ass of being a Desmond +90% up day in volume and points (88.86% in volume and 95.14% in points). Whether than turns into a significant reveral point or not remains to be seen. If we get a clear 90% up day in points and volume here soon, that will do it for me on the short side.

Thanks again for putting in some pertinent information.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. II data.

3/13/08 Subscription http://www.thechartist.com/

The rally was certainly overdue and overall sentiment had dropped to extreme levels. On March 11th, Investors Intelligence reported that the percentage of bulls had dropped all the way down to 31.1% versus 43.3% bears. The last time Advisory Sentiment was this negative was back on 10/11/02 when the percentage of bulls was at 28.4% versus 43.2% bears. While we expect the rally to continue, we advise caution. Our models are still entrenched in negative territory.

Some old data I have showed the date that Investors Intelligence was for weekending 10/18/02. I presume everyone recalls that was the bottom of the 2000-2002 bear market.

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information

f_j
Thanks, but sometimes I run out of energy. This was never intended to be "my thread." So anytime you run upon something you think pertinent, please do post it so any who care to read here can avail themselves of the information, and that applies to everyone else too.

Nice charts you put up. I wish for the sake of my positioning I did not agree with the message of those charts and other data I track. McClellan oscillator NY-- was -281 on 3/10, Nasdaq McOsc -180, levels that were approximated 11/19 and 8/15 on NYSE, and yesterday was within a nat's ass of being a Desmond +90% up day in volume and points (88.86% in volume and 95.14% in points). Whether than turns into a significant reveral point or not remains to be seen. If we get a clear 90% up day in points and volume here soon, that will do it for me on the short side.

Thanks again for putting in some pertinent information.

Jim, thanks for keeping this thread alive.
As we reached the nadir of sentiment, its worth to remind to our fellow itulipers (happily shorting the markets) that we reached historically record sentiment levels comparable to (or even worse in some indicators) Feb 01, Sept 01, or March 03. The short covering alone will produce a powerful pop in equities worldwide. The effect could be short lived but very powerful nevertheless...

Here's something that I felt was not only bullish, but mindboggling. I continue to be amazed by the percentage numbers...even if they are cooked, and one discounts them by 50%, they are still amazing. Is this just a dangerous momentum based asset investment bubble, in the face of slowing exports and a cooling global economy? Or do we see some form of "decoupling", however minor, that keeps Asia from falling into the recession black hole? (highlights in red are mine):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...T9s&refer=home

China's Factory, Property Investment Climbs 24.3%

By Nipa Piboontanasawat
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- China's factory and property spending grew 24.3 percent in January and February even as the worst snowstorms in half a century disrupted projects.

Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose to 812.1 billion yuan ($115 billion) from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today. That was more than the 24 percent median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the 23.4 percent pace in January and February 2007.

The government may hasten gains by the yuan, raise interest rates and increase banks' reserve requirements to prevent the world's fastest-growing major economy from overheating. Inflation surged to the highest level in 11 years in February and Premier Wen Jiabao said last week that the government is concerned at the ``strong possibility'' of an investment rebound.

``The underlying growth momentum of fixed-asset investment has been robust and stable,'' said Liang Hong and Song Yu, at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong. The economists expect ``further tightening measures in the coming months.''

A Bloomberg News survey of economists this week showed rates and reserve requirements will both rise this year. The yuan will gain 12 percent versus the dollar in the next 12 months, compared with a 7 percent increase in 2007, forward contracts show. Currency appreciation cuts import costs.

Yuan, Borrowing Costs
The yuan traded at 7.0885 versus the dollar, the highest since a fixed exchange rate ended in July 2005, as of 10:29 a.m. in Shanghai from 7.0900 yesterday.

China's economy, the world's fourth largest, expanded 11.4 percent in 2007 from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 13 years, on exports and investment. The key one-year lending rate is 7.47 percent. Urban fixed-asset investment rose 25.8 percent for all of last year.

Coal investment jumped 31 percent in the first two months from a year earlier after rising 24 percent in all of 2007, the statistics bureau said.

Spending on non-metal minerals surged 61 percent after gaining 51 percent.

Investment in oil and natural gas rose 9.8 percent after a 22 percent increase. Spending on electricity production fell 3.7 percent after climbing 8.7 percent.

The investment numbers are the final data for January and February. Figures were distorted by the blizzards, making it harder to gauge the effects of what the government terms a ``tight'' monetary policy.

Producer Prices
Inflation surged 8.7 percent in February from a year earlier. Producer prices, the cost of goods as they leave the factory, rose at the fastest pace in three years. Retail sales climbed by the most in nine years, partly on rising prices.

``Curbing the scary level of inflation has surpassed other concerns to become the government's top priority,'' said Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING Groep NV in Singapore.

Weaker export growth illustrated the threat to China from a slowing global economy. Overseas shipments rose last month by the least in five years, cutting the trade surplus, as U.S. demand waned. Money-supply growth slowed. Industrial production expanded in the first two months by the least in a year.

``Inflation has become hard to control as energy and commodity prices surge and China needs to import those raw materials for its booming economy,'' said Chris Leung, senior economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``What China needs is to allow its currency to appreciate faster to reduce costs.''

Total SA, Ford
The worst blizzards since 1954 swept across provinces including Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi and Anhui in January and February, killing 129 people.

The storms disrupted the projects or manufacturing of companies including Total SA, Europe's biggest oil refiner, Ford Motor Co., the world's third-largest automaker, and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., known as Chalco, the nation's largest producer of the metal.

Fixed-asset investment will be boosted this year by rebuilding after the snowstorms, said Henry Li, an economist at Core Pacific Yamaichi International Ltd. in Hong Kong.

The People's Bank of China lifted borrowing costs six times in 2007 and has pushed banks' reserve requirements to 15 percent, the highest ever.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Ole Barton Biggs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...U2I&refer=home

U.S. Stocks Near an `Important Bottom,' Biggs Says (Update2)

By Elizabeth Stanton and Betty Liu

The above is from 2/11/08 The market did rally almost 700 points, if measured from two days before Biggs' interview was in Bloomberg, from intraday low to intraday high on 2/27/08. The DJI is lower now than it was 2/11.

Now from Bloomberg 3/14/08
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...8NQ&refer=home

Barton Biggs Expects 1,000-Point Gain in Dow Average

The decline in U.S. stocks is ``way overdone'' and the Dow Jones Industrial Average may rally 1,000 points, investor Barton Biggs said.

``We're in a financial panic,'' Biggs said during a telephone interview with Bloomberg Television from New York. ``We're setting up for a really big rally. I don't mean three or four hundred points on the Dow, I mean 1,000 points on the Dow. I don't know if we're going to get it next week or the week after. But this thing has gotten crazy and is overdone.''

``We're at a really crucial point,'' Biggs said. ``This is a time to be buying stocks around the world and not to be selling them.''
.
.

``Yeah, it's scary. It's always scary at bottoms. But I don't believe the economy is collapsing,'' Biggs said. ``This is not the end of the world.''

Things are again oversold, and it is from such that rises can and do occur.
What do I think? I think a bounce up here is to be expected. How much? I have no idea.

[touchring]

Re: Bullish Information

Here's something that I felt was not only bullish, but mindboggling. I continue to be amazed by the percentage numbers...even if they are cooked, and one discounts them by 50%, they are still amazing. Is this just a dangerous momentum based asset investment bubble, in the face of slowing exports and a cooling global economy? Or do we see some form of "decoupling", however minor, that keeps Asia from falling into the recession black hole? (highlights in red are mine):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...T9s&refer=home

China's Factory, Property Investment Climbs 24.3%

I'm not surprised as the housing bubble is still very strong in many chinese cities outside of shanghai, shenzhen, beijing and guangzhou.

Just like the American real estate bubble, housing bubbles are difficult to cool down, and always last longer than most people tend to believe.

[raja]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Ole Barton Biggs.

Things are again oversold, and it is from such that rises can and do occur.
What do I think? I think a bounce up here is to be expected. How much? I have no idea.

I think if everyone was reading iTulip, there wouldn't be a bounce . . . but everybody isn't.
However, the mainstream media has been scary enough over the last few weeks, I'm not expecting any big bounce.

Small ups and downs, yes.
On the last two mini-bounces and falls I made some money buying and selling some of EJ's short suggestions.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Ole Barton Biggs.

The above is from 2/11/08 The market did rally almost 700 points, if measured from two days before Biggs' interview was in Bloomberg, from intraday low to intraday high on 2/27/08. The DJI is lower now than it was 2/11.

Now from Bloomberg 3/14/08
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...8NQ&refer=home



Things are again oversold, and it is from such that rises can and do occur.
What do I think? I think a bounce up here is to be expected. How much? I have no idea.

The present situation makes it a double bottom, very bullish, at least short term. The current situation reminds me 3/01, 9/01, or 3/03 when media and public were as bearish as they possibly could. Such bearish sentiment always results in a rally for a simple reason. All weak hands sold what they could and all the players are maximum short. The short covering triggers a powerful rally. Then weak hands/dumb money jump late on the rally fueling the rise. We had that exactly a year ago as everyone remembers.

This is a mirror image of the mid 2007 when media and sloshing liquidity painted a very different picture. Now, long term, it's a different story and the Dow/gold ratio keeps going lower.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Ole Barton Biggs.

On the last two mini-bounces and falls I made some money buying and selling some of EJ's short suggestions.

Out of curiosity, how much is the select membership? Is there a trial period? I have to admit that after lurking for a few months, I'm very impressed by EJ's macroeconomics calls that were spot on (I wish I listened more even though my own sentiment trading system seems to work too if I pay enough attention). How about stock/securities selection? For instance, Stephen Leeb that I subscribe to has the macroeconomics and commodities figured out but is terrible at stock selection. People say similar things about Jim Rogers.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Ole Barton Biggs.

Out of curiosity, how much is the select membership? Is there a trial period? I have to admit that after lurking for a few months, I'm very impressed by EJ's macroeconomics calls that were spot on (I wish I listened more even though my own sentiment trading system seems to work too if I pay enough attention). How about stock/securities selection? For instance, Stephen Leeb that I subscribe to has the macroeconomics and commodities figured out but is terrible at stock selection. People say similar things about Jim Rogers.

Try here and follow link in the first bold paragraph at tippy-top of thread. I think that explains it. I've gotten ideas about how to invest from reading everything on iTulip, but the management is not in the business to telling you how to invest--though there are those who clamor to be sheeple.

So after your note above, are you long from the opening this morning? I'm not, but I recognize I could be wrong not to be. No cojones.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Ole Barton Biggs.

Try here and follow link in the first bold paragraph at tippy-top of thread. I think that explains it. I've gotten ideas about how to invest from reading everything on iTulip, but the management is not in the business to telling you how to invest--though there are those who clamor to be sheeple.

So after your note above, are you long from the opening this morning? I'm not, but I recognize I could be wrong not to be. No cojones.

Thanks kindly for the link, I signed up but didn't have time to study the select part yet.

As for your question, yes, since the last week I was long and steadily increasing the exposure. Yesterday I maxed out my margin (approximately 200% long), mostly in global and emerging markets but also natural resources, and even small banking. This is a short term position though and I plan to sell as the markets go up. IMHO, In the face of the current situation, true contrarians should be long. I did that in mid August 07 and it served me well. Now, I don't have balls to short gold though, even though is overbought short term.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Ole Barton Biggs.

Thanks kindly for the link, I signed up but didn't have time to study the select part yet.

As for your question, yes, since the last week I was long and steadily increasing the exposure. Yesterday I maxed out my margin (approximately 200% long), mostly in global and emerging markets but also natural resources, and even small banking. This is a short term position though and I plan to sell as the markets go up. IMHO, In the face of the current situation, true contrarians should be long. I did that in mid August 07 and it served me well. Now, I don't have balls to short gold though, even though is overbought short term.

Looks brilliant! Thanks for sharing your commitment.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Double 9 to 1 days.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...1E2BA8D864B%7D

MARK HULBERT 3/19/09
Double or nothing
Commentary: A "double nine-to-one" signal was triggered Tuesday

.
.

But there's more reason for the bulls to cheer than the magnitude of the day's point gain. Tuesday's action also was strong enough to trigger a bullish technical event known as a "Double Nine-To-One" signal.

This indicator is based on the volume of all NYSE-listed stocks that go up on a given day, expressed as a percentage of the total volume of all stocks that rose or fell on that day. On a day when rising stocks' volume is the same as declining stocks' volume, for example, this ratio would be exactly 50%.

A single "Nine-To-One Up Day" occurs when this ratio is 90% or higher on a given day. According to Martin Zweig, who helped to develop this indicator several decades ago, such a huge imbalance of up volume over down volume "is a significant sign of positive momentum. In other words, when daily up volume leads down volume by a ratio of 9-to-1 or more, that tends to be an important signal for stocks." The quotation comes from Zweig's 1986 book, "Winning on Wall Street."

An even more bullish signal, according to Zweig, is when two "Nine to One Up Days" take place within a short period of time -- something he called a "Double Nine-to-One" signal. It is this more bullish signal that got triggered on Tuesday: March 11, one week ago, was a Nine-to-One Up Day, and so was Tuesday, when up volume constituted more than 95% of the combined volume of both rising and falling stocks.

How bullish is a "Double Nine-to-One" signal? One answer is provided by David Aronson, an adjunct professor of finance at Baruch College. Professor Aronson is the author of a book titled, "Evidence-Based Technical Analysis" (Wiley, 2007), in which he discusses how to use the "scientific method and statistical inference" when judging investment strategies.

Aronson, along with the students in a class he teaches at Baruch College, tested the statistical significance of "Double Nine-to-One" signals. Aronson told me that he and his "class used data from the beginning of 1942 through fall of 2006, and we looked at what happens in the stock market in the 60-trading-day period following a ... double Nine-to-One signal, versus what happens the rest of the time. In those 60-trading-day windows, the S&P 500 index produced an average annualized return of over 22%, on the assumption that an investor entered the market on the close the day after a double Nine-to-One signal was triggered and held until the end of the 60th trading day later."

"In the non-signal periods," Aronson continued, "in contrast, the return averaged 4.5% annualized. The difference between these two average returns is statistically significant."

Aronson told me that these calculations do not include dividends.
Are there are flies in the ointment? Of course. There always are.
One is that "Double Nine-to-One" signals aren't foolproof. Such a signal was triggered last November, for example, and, far from rising at an above-average rate over the subsequent three months, the stock market fell.

Another objection is that it may not be entirely fair to consider March 11 to have been a "Nine-to-One Up Day." That's because NYSE up volume on that day, as a proportion of total volume of both rising and falling issues that day, came to 89.998%.

A technician who rounded percentages to two or fewer decimal points would have concluded that March 11 was a Nine-to-One Up Day. But someone who calculated the ratio out to more decimals would have concluded that March 11 didn't qualify and, if so, then we didn't get a Double Nine-to-One signal this week.

However, Aronson, in an interview Tuesday afternoon, indicated that in his opinion, March 11's volume data came close enough to qualify. Had it been included in the sample studied by him and his class, March 11 would have been considered a "Nine-to-One Up Day."

Finally, a more serious objection is that there have been around a dozen nine-to-one down days over the past couple of months. However, Zweig argued in his book that Nine-To-One Down days do not have as much bearish significance as Nine-to-One Up days have bullish significance.

The bottom line? Tuesday's "Double Nine-to-One" signal may not prove to be as reliable a signal as it has in the past. But the bulls can nevertheless console themselves that the burden of proof has shifted so that it's now the bears poking holes in the bullish argument rather than the other way around.

There is no telling how many technical indicators exist that various individuals may use from time to time. Thinking about why over 20 years now I have collected data and continued to add certain indicators to attempt to make something from it, the following are some thoughts

Unless one categorically rejects anything to do with technical analysis, which I never did, then there seemed to me long ago value to try to collect one's own data to follow certain indicators. Take Hulbert's article above as an example. If one chooses not to collect data, then one is at the mercy of someone like Hulbert to first recognize something potentially significant, second, to choose to write about it in a timely manner, and third, that one might chance upon such a report if it gets written.

Collection of data circumvents all three of those possibilities. Collection of data today is a piece of cake even for a bozo as I am. Shit, when I began this all I had was a computer and a very early version of quatttro spreadsheet. I subscribed to Barron's printed edition and on Saturday's copied the data I wanted into my spreadsheet. Today on any evening, I collect a ton more data, more rapidly, and have more time to attempt to make something of it.

Another place I use my data is when I read various people's reports based on how something did in the past, and how some current circumstance compares to the previous. I often check what they write, and occasionally I find differences which will make me go back and check my data for possible errors. As an example of one of my uses of my data, Hulbert referenced a failed signal that occurred back last November using this double 9 to 1 indicator. Those occurred on11/23 and 11/28.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Double 9 to 1 days.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...1E2BA8D864B%7D

MARK HULBERT 3/19/09
Double or nothing
Commentary: A "double nine-to-one" signal was triggered Tuesday

.
.

But there's more reason for the bulls to cheer than the magnitude of the day's point gain. Tuesday's action also was strong enough to trigger a bullish technical event known as a "Double Nine-To-One" signal.

This indicator is based on the volume of all NYSE-listed stocks that go up on a given day, expressed as a percentage of the total volume of all stocks that rose or fell on that day. On a day when rising stocks' volume is the same as declining stocks' volume, for example, this ratio would be exactly 50%.

A single "Nine-To-One Up Day" occurs when this ratio is 90% or higher on a given day. According to Martin Zweig, who helped to develop this indicator several decades ago, such a huge imbalance of up volume over down volume "is a significant sign of positive momentum. In other words, when daily up volume leads down volume by a ratio of 9-to-1 or more, that tends to be an important signal for stocks." The quotation comes from Zweig's 1986 book, "Winning on Wall Street."

An even more bullish signal, according to Zweig, is when two "Nine to One Up Days" take place within a short period of time -- something he called a "Double Nine-to-One" signal. It is this more bullish signal that got triggered on Tuesday: March 11, one week ago, was a Nine-to-One Up Day, and so was Tuesday, when up volume constituted more than 95% of the combined volume of both rising and falling stocks.

How bullish is a "Double Nine-to-One" signal? One answer is provided by David Aronson, an adjunct professor of finance at Baruch College. Professor Aronson is the author of a book titled, "Evidence-Based Technical Analysis" (Wiley, 2007), in which he discusses how to use the "scientific method and statistical inference" when judging investment strategies.

Aronson, along with the students in a class he teaches at Baruch College, tested the statistical significance of "Double Nine-to-One" signals. Aronson told me that he and his "class used data from the beginning of 1942 through fall of 2006, and we looked at what happens in the stock market in the 60-trading-day period following a ... double Nine-to-One signal, versus what happens the rest of the time. In those 60-trading-day windows, the S&P 500 index produced an average annualized return of over 22%, on the assumption that an investor entered the market on the close the day after a double Nine-to-One signal was triggered and held until the end of the 60th trading day later."

"In the non-signal periods," Aronson continued, "in contrast, the return averaged 4.5% annualized. The difference between these two average returns is statistically significant."

Aronson told me that these calculations do not include dividends.

Are there are flies in the ointment? Of course. There always are.

One is that "Double Nine-to-One" signals aren't foolproof. Such a signal was triggered last November, for example, and, far from rising at an above-average rate over the subsequent three months, the stock market fell.

Another objection is that it may not be entirely fair to consider March 11 to have been a "Nine-to-One Up Day." That's because NYSE up volume on that day, as a proportion of total volume of both rising and falling issues that day, came to 89.998%.

A technician who rounded percentages to two or fewer decimal points would have concluded that March 11 was a Nine-to-One Up Day. But someone who calculated the ratio out to more decimals would have concluded that March 11 didn't qualify and, if so, then we didn't get a Double Nine-to-One signal this week.

However, Aronson, in an interview Tuesday afternoon, indicated that in his opinion, March 11's volume data came close enough to qualify. Had it been included in the sample studied by him and his class, March 11 would have been considered a "Nine-to-One Up Day."

Finally, a more serious objection is that there have been around a dozen nine-to-one down days over the past couple of months. However, Zweig argued in his book that Nine-To-One Down days do not have as much bearish significance as Nine-to-One Up days have bullish significance.

The bottom line? Tuesday's "Double Nine-to-One" signal may not prove to be as reliable a signal as it has in the past. But the bulls can nevertheless console themselves that the burden of proof has shifted so that it's now the bears poking holes in the bullish argument rather than the other way around.

There is no telling how many technical indicators exist that various individuals may use from time to time. Thinking about why over 20 years now I have collected data and continued to add certain indicators to attempt to make something from it, the following are some thoughts

Unless one categorically rejects anything to do with technical analysis, which I never did, then there seemed to me long ago value to try to collect one's own data to follow certain indicators. Take Hulbert's article above as an example. If one chooses not to collect data, then one is at the mercy of someone like Hulbert to first recognize something potentially significant, second, to choose to write about it in a timely manner, and third, that one might chance upon such a report if it gets written.

Collection of data circumvents all three of those possibilities. Collection of data today is a piece of cake even for a bozo as I am. Shit, when I began this all I had was a computer and a very early version of quatttro spreadsheet. I subscribed to Barron's printed edition and on Saturday's copied the data I wanted into my spreadsheet. Today on any evening, I collect a ton more data, more rapidly, and have more time to attempt to make something of it.

Another place I use my data is when I read various people's reports based on how something did in the past, and how some current circumstance compares to the previous. I often check what they write, and occasionally I find differences which will make me go back and check my data for possible errors. As an example of one of my uses of my data, Hulbert referenced a failed signal that occurred back last November using this double 9 to 1 indicator. Those occurred on 11/23 and 11/28. If one played that signal, the top gain would have been ~3.3% over 8 days, and then all down hill over the next 60 trading days, if one just blindly played the signal to stay with it for 60 days the loss would have been 5% (NYA closing data).

In some previous posts I have referenced Desmond's 90% days in volume and points. It is essentially the same principal, but Desmond added points to his indicator. To my knowledge no one has compared the two methods.