Bullish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Aden Sisters

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8467.htm

September 21, 2007
This Is It!
by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden

All of the pieces have fallen into place.

Gold was near a 27 year high, oil was at a record high, stocks in the U.S. and globally remained bullish, the currencies were strong and the U.S. dollar was near a record low. The Fed then lowered the Fed Funds and Discount rates by a half percent on Tuesday, which triggered or reinforced strong breakouts in these markets, leaving no question that the major market trends are solid and strong.

The Fed saved the day. A recession is now less likely than it was a month ago, while inflation is indeed more likely. As a result, oil continues its surge and gold broke out strongly to a new bull market high. Stocks are super strong, interest rates are on the decline, the U.S. dollar is at a record low, the Canadian dollar reached a 30 year high, the euro is at another new high, many resource and energy shares are also at new highs, and so are several gold shares. The asset boom continues (see Chart).

Gold: What's Next?

A strong C rise in the gold price is now underway. These are the strongest upmoves within gold's recurring cycle. Plus, the fact that gold has now reached a new bull market high is super bullish for gold, reinforcing that the over six year old bull market is solid and well intact. With gold above its May, 2006 high (which was the last C rise peak), gold is now on its way to test the 1980 peak near $850 as its next upside target. Gold's C rise will remain super strong above $700 basis December.

Gold shares are also shooting up with gold. The XAU index is very strong above 150 and it's now above its May, 06 high near 168.50. It'll be very strong if it can stay above this level.

Gold and oil are in the limelight and they've left the others in the dust. Yet silver, platinum and copper are on the rise and they are firm above $12.70, $1290 and $3.40, respectively, and they have room to rise further.

Our strongest gold and energy shares are at new highs, while most of our natural resource shares are at new highs. This is a time to be buying new positions and holding on to the ones you have. The best is yet to come.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Below are good articles from MSN, notice how energy and commodities investing slowly filters to main media. Looks like we will see a major blow up in these areas in the next months or even years, not unlike the emerging markets euphoria in the mid 90's.
http://rurl.org/9ob
http://rurl.org/9oc

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information

I also find this unbelievable, especially when Abu Dhabi National is buying PrimeWest for C$4 Billion http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...jJU&refer=home

Why would an oil producer buy another oil producer if they expect oil prices to halve!?

Anyways, anyone here into Canadian oil trusts?

Taqa is a SWF with a mandate to invest in "energy" which they define in a very broad way (e.g. desalination plants fueled with natural gas would qualify). They paid a pretty hefty price at over $80,000 per producing BOE, so I have to imagine there's a lot of "strategic value" built into the evaluation. Penn West Energy, another large Canadian trust, just acquired another trust for about half that valuation.

What do you want to know about the Canadian trusts?

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Aden Sisters

Jim: Just found this topic you started yesterday. Can't figure out how to reset the title though... sorry. (can you help me here please).

Some news from north of the border. A G7 country paying down the national debt and cutting taxes...hard to believe the Loonie used to be called the Northern Peso not that long ago.
Federal budget surplus balloons to $14B

Thu Sep 27, 7:04 PM A booming Canadian economy generated such big tax revenues this past year that the federal budget surplus approached $14 billion, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Thursday.
The final surplus for the 2006-07 fiscal year came in at $13.8 billion, Harper said at a The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called for Ottawa to lower personal and business tax rates. "Annual surpluses represent over-taxation by government and the money should go back to taxpayers by way of income tax relief," the federation's federal director, John Williamson, said.

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information

Bullish if you are invested in iron ore;
Maybe bearish if you are a steelmaker or GM...

Iron Ore Prices Seen Rising 30% in 2008
Bloomberg reports analysts' median estimate of $66.40/ton for 2008 prices of iron ore benchmark shipments from Australia represents a 30% increase compared to $51.47 in 2007. Sustained high demand from China's steelmakers, who are said to be raising production 15%, is credited for the expected price increase. Mining companies and customers are scheduled to begin annual price negotiations in October for shipments starting in April. A Melbourne, Australia-based Goldman Sachs commodities analyst, says demand will outstrip supply for years, resulting in price increases until 2010. Merrill Lynch analysts in a report published Wednesday, said low inventories at China's ports and supply shortages could push prices higher by more than 50% in 2008.
HSBC expects price increases of 40% in Australia and 30% in Brazil.

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information

And one more on gold...
Barrick's CEO had similar comments on Friday.
It's enough to send shivers down the spine of any gold bugs looking for contrarian signals...
Gold Fields' Cockerill Expects Gold to Reach $1,200 in 2 Years
By Stewart Bailey
Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Gold Fields Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Ian Cockerill said gold may rise to a record $1,200 an ounce in two years as production falls, jewelry demand increases and the dollar declines.
``I'm quite comfortable talking about $1,200 an ounce,'' Cockerill, who leads the world's fourth-largest gold producer, said today in an interview from London. ``I think that will happen in 24 months or so. It could be quicker.''

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information

Bullish if you are invested in grains, indifferent if you work at the Fed (and make policy based on the core rate), bearish if you are one of those rare families that have to eat...
From the WSJ:
Historic Surge In Grain Prices Roils Markets
By SCOTT KILMAN
September 28, 2007;
Rising prices and surging demand for the crops that supply half of the world's calories are producing the biggest changes in global food markets in 30 years, altering the economic landscape for everyone from consumers and farmers to corporate giants and the world's poor.

"The days of cheap grain are gone," says Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co., a Chicago commodity forecasting concern.
This year the prices of Illinois corn and soybeans are up 40% and 75%, respectively, from a year ago. Kansas wheat is up 70% or more. And a growing number of economists and agribusiness executives think the run-ups could last as long as a decade, raising the cost of all kinds of food.

In the past, such increases have been caused by temporary supply disruptions.

Link to full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1190..._us_whats_news

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Reply to GRG55

Jim: Just found this topic you started yesterday. Can't figure out how to reset the title though... sorry. (can you help me here please).

Some news from north of the border. A G7 country paying down the national debt and cutting taxes...hard to believe the Loonie used to be called the Northern Peso not that long ago.
Federal budget surplus balloons to $14B

Thu Sep 27, 7:04 PM A booming Canadian economy generated such big tax revenues this past year that the federal budget surplus approached $14 billion, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Thursday.
The final surplus for the 2006-07 fiscal year came in at $13.8 billion, Harper said at a The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called for Ottawa to lower personal and business tax rates. "Annual surpluses represent over-taxation by government and the money should go back to taxpayers by way of income tax relief," the federation's federal director, John Williamson, said.

If you select a previous post and "quote" it, the "reply to thread" window shows the title box such that you can enter a new title or edit the existing one.

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information Re: More on China's new SWF

China's $200 Billion Sovereign Fund Begins Operations

By Belinda Cao
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- China Investment Corp., the nation's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, starts operations today as the government seeks to boost returns on the world's biggest foreign-exchange reserves.

The investment agency will come under the direct supervision of the nation's cabinet, the State Council. Lou Jiwei, former vice finance minister, will act as director and Gao Xiqing, former deputy chairman at the National Council for Social Security Fund, will be general manager, according to information disclosed at an opening ceremony in Beijing.
China set up Asia's biggest state-owned investment company after surging trade surpluses helped push the nation's currency reserves to a record $1.33 trillion. The agency's creation has spurred speculation of a flood of Chinese investments into overseas companies and resources such as oil and metals.

``Such a company is very necessary in the context of China's increasing trade surplus and trade frictions with other countries,'' said Li Yang, who heads financial research at the Chinese Academy of Social Science in Beijing. ``China needs to shift its exports from manufactured goods to capital, and also from the old model of relying on foreign investments for growth.''

The new fund made its first investment with the $3 billion purchase of a stake in Blackstone Group LP in May, suffering a loss as the New York-based private equity firm's stock dropped 19 percent since listing on June 22.

Investment Strategy
China's government hasn't disclosed in detail an investment strategy for the agency, to be funded by a total of 1.55 trillion yuan ($205 billion) special government bond sale that will be used to buy foreign-exchange reserves from the central bank. By Sept. 28, 700 billion yuan has been raised by 10-year and 15-year bonds issues. The finance ministry will sell more long-term bonds by the year-end to meet the budget.

The company ``will be prudent in its foreign exchange business, keeping in mind tolerable risks while also aiming to maximize investment returns in the longer term,'' it said in a statement handed out today before the opening ceremony.

Fred Hu, a managing director at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong, said the company should hold a global portfolio, including stocks, bonds, commodities and special assets in private equity, real-estate and hedge funds, according to a report in the official China Securities Journal on Sept. 10.

The company may also help major state-owned companies expand overseas, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing Li Rongrong, director of the China State Asset Management Commission, the agency that oversees government assets.
Safety First

The sovereign fund should be cautious in the beginning and put safety before seeking high returns, said Li Yang at the Social Science Academy, who had been an invited advisor for the set-up of the company.
``The two agencies charged with investing China's currency reserves need to coordinate to prevent potential conflicts,'' Li said. China has been partly outsourcing its reserves investments since 1998 to international investment firms, and will continue to do so after the new company starts, according to Li.
Hu Huaibang will be in charge of supervising internal audits, the company statement said.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, a regulatory branch under the central bank, is still managing most of the nation's foreign currency reserves, which are largely invested in low-risk assets such as U.S. government debt.

Bigger Than Temasek
China owns $405 billion, or 18 percent, of foreign-held U.S. Treasuries, the second-biggest amount in the world after Japan.

The reserves management firm's assets will exceed those of Singapore's Temasek Holdings Pte, which had $107 billion under management as of March. Norway runs a $327 billion global pension fund to preserve the country's oil wealth for future generations.
The new company incorporates the former investment arm of the central bank, Central Huijin Investment Co., which holds controlling stakes in the nation's four biggest Chinese banks.

Central Huijin has injected $60 billion of its foreign reserves to boost the capital of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China Co. Ltd and China Construction Bank Corp. since January 2004. The Agricultural Bank of China, the only state-owned bank not to sell shares to the public, may receive a $40 billion capital injection from Huijin, China's official Xinhua News Agency reported in August.

``The new investment company will continue to boost the capital of state-owned financial institutions,'' said director Lou Jiwei at the ceremony

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. James West's COT reports.

Each week I get West's comments emailed to me. He used to post them in a blog section on his site, but apparently has stopped. Anyone interested should try this email address and ask if you can get on his email list: buythebottom@gmail.com. That may work or not.

Below is copied from his email received last night 9/29/07. Click on his link to see his charts and then you can use the quote below to read his comments for the individual markets. Forgive the underlining--I can't get rid of it.


Quote:

www.buythebottom.com/cot_charts/ ** Crude Oil Oil is setting new highs, after testing a support-level at 78-79. The trend continues to point up; but what I find especially bullish about oil is its COT chart. Notice how commercial selling has been marginal as crude rallied from mid-August up to today. So from a COT perspective this market continues to look very bullish. And trend looks bullish as long as we remain above the 78-79 level. ** Stock market There has been a huge decline of open interest in all of the major stock-indexes. As a result there has been some big developments in the COT charts. For the S&P 500, net- commercial position has seen a huge increase to being just shy of 70,000 contracts net-long. If net-commercial position remains at this record-level, I can only conclude that this is very bullish. Trend also remains bullish as we continue to consolidate on the SPX and hold above 1500-support. The Dow Jones COT chart is starting to perk up, but is overall little changed. On the price-chart the Dow is consolidating not too far from its record 14,000-level. The Nasdaq 100 COT chart is like the inverse of the S&P 500 chart. There has been a huge breakdown in commercial net-position. If you look at the Nasdaq three year chart, you can see that these break-downs in net- position are typical for this index. And when they occur you typically see the NDX correct or at least consolidate. From the price-chart, the Nasdaq 100 index broke-out, above its 2007 highs last week, leading the other indexes in relative strength. So the COT chart is starting to look bearish, but trend remains very bullish. In this scenario we must be weary of the COT development while respecting Nasdaq's uptrend. As long as we continue to trade above support at around 2050, the path of least resistance for the NDX remains UP. The Russell 2000 has also seen a decline in its net- commercial position. The RUT continues to be one of my key indicators on the market. While we are holding about critical support at 800, the market should be fine. A bullish confirmation would come if we close above 820. In conclusion, the message from the COT charts warrants caution, while the TREND for the indexes remains UP. ** VIX The COT chart for the volatility index continues to decline: forecasting a continuation in the current down-trend. A continued decline in the VIX would be supportive of a rally in the stock-market. ** Gold Gold's price chart is similar to oil's. Both are breaking out to record-levels. However, their COT charts are very much different. While in crude, commercials have shown very little willingness to sell, for gold on the other hand, net- commercial position dropped to levels not seen since 2005. So the COT chart is bearish and the price chart is bullish. In this scenario we respect the uptrend 100% but look out for any breakdowns. Currently gold looks like it is resuming its bullish uptrend after breaking out of a bull-flag pattern. I would be cautious if gold closed below 746, and become short-term bearish if we broke below the bull-flag's support line at 730. ** US Dollar The USD continues to sell-off. The trend remains down so this development is to some extent 'expected'. What I find even more bearish is the fact that net-commercial position did not rise to a new high. Maybe it will next week, or maybe it won't. For the time being, commercials are not viewing the current levels on the US dollar as 'bargain' prices. Overall, the USD continues to paint a bearish picture.

I also posted this in the Bearish Thread.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

September 30, 2007
The Broad Market
by Clive Maund


Bears about to be wiped out -- "The Mother of all Short Squeezes"

We now have an extraordinarily bullish setup for the broad stockmarket, which as we will soon see is considerably amplified by the latest Commitment of Traders data, that is unprecedented in the writer's experience, and startling.

On the 6-month chart for the S&P500 index we can see the powerful breakout from the Head-and-Shoulders bottom that occurred nearly 2 weeks ago. The day after this breakout the index continued higher, only to run into the underside of a wall of resistance approaching the highs. A bullish horizontal Flag has since formed that has allowed the market time to soak up the overhead resistance - the bullishness of the situation being confirmed by the volume dieback as the Flag has formed and the advance by the volume indicators, Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume (shown at the top and bottom of the chart), to new highs.
..
..
All of this points to "the mother of all short squeezes" driving a very powerful breakout to new highs - and soon. Remember the market doesn't need a great economy to go up, just unlimited liquidity - and the Fed has resoundingly demonstrated that they stand ready to provide it, no matter what the consequences.

One thing Maund doesn't show or comment on is these same COT data for the NDX which are mentioned by James West in post #220 above. West decribes the NDX as "the inverse of the S&P 500 chart."

So there is some conflict here at the same time between two rather widely followed equity indices: SPX and NDX.

I also get an email report each week from Mike Burk, who almost always posts the same information on http://www.safehaven.com/. However, he has not made that post as of yet--Sunday 5:30PM 9/30/07.

This is the opening comment from Burk's this week's note--which I hope will be posted soon on safehaven.com

Short Term
I think we are in a developing top that is in its final stages. In the next week or two there is likely to be an all time high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 (SPX), and a multi year high in the NASDAQ composite (OTC). If my interpretation is correct there will not be a new high in the Russell 2000 (R2K).

Intermediate Term
The typical pattern for developing tops is for all of the major indices to reach new highs at the same time followed by a decline and return to new highs for the blue chips but, not the small caps. The time between the first high and the final high in the blue chips is usually around 6 weeks but, it can vary by quite a bit. In 1998 there was a high in all of the major indices on April 22 followed by a dip that bottomed in June and a return to new highs in the blue chip indices and OTC 60 trading days later on July 17.

Burk puts forth his arguments based on past technical patterns. If you believe there is potential validity to such analyses, then I suggest to keep checking safehaven.com for Burk's post. I would copy the whole thing from my email, but the charts won't copy and the comments don't make much sense without being able to see his charts.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

September 30, 2007
The Broad Market
by Clive Maund


Bears about to be wiped out -- "The Mother of all Short Squeezes"



One thing Maund doesn't show or comment on is these same COT data for the NDX which are mentioned by James West in post #220 above. West decribes the NDX as "the inverse of the S&P 500 chart."

So there is some conflict here at the same time between two rather widely followed equity indices: SPX and NDX.

I also get an email report each week from Mike Burk, who almost always posts the same information on http://www.safehaven.com/. However, he has not made that post as of yet--Sunday 5:30PM 9/30/07.

This is the opening comment from Burk's this week's note--which I hope will be posted soon on safehaven.com



Burk puts forth his arguments based on past technical patterns. If you believe there is potential validity to such analyses, then I suggest to keep checking safehaven.com for Burk's post. I would copy the whole thing from my email, but the charts won't copy and the comments don't make much sense without being able to see his charts.

Here is the link to Mike Burk's report for weekending 9/28/07


October 01, 2007
Technical Market Report
by Mike Burk

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8527.htm

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information Re: The Canadians are coming...

Toronto-Dominion Agrees to Buy Commerce Bancorp

By David Scanlan and Bradley Keoun
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Toronto-Dominion Bank, in the biggest foreign takeover by a Canadian lender, agreed to pay $8.5 billion for Commerce Bancorp Inc., the New Jersey company that ousted founder Vernon Hill three months ago.

Link to full article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...UO0cA&refer=us

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information Re: Barron's Interview with John Hathaway

All the goldphiles on iTulip will know that John Hathaway manages the Tocqueville Gold Fund. Just on the remote chance that there is someone reading this who has not heard of him, his periodic writings on precious metals, available on the Tocqueville Asset Management site, are well worth the time to read.

This interview last week from Barron's:

In Overdrive to $1,000 Gold

Interview with John Hathaway, Senior Managing Director,
Portfolio Manager, Tocqueville Asset Management
By SANDRA WARD

AS FAR BACK AS LAST OCTOBER, John Hathaway believed gold's breakaway performance from other commodities signaled rough times ahead for financial assets. That proved true -- and that's the kind of insight that has led the Manhattan-based Hathaway's $1.1 billion Tocqueville Gold Fund (ticker: TGLDX) to its own breakaway performance. The fund is up nearly 12% this year, versus 9% for the Standard & Poor's 500 and 17% for the XAU, the Philadelphia Exchange's Gold and Silver sector index, which has benefited from an overweight position in copper-producer Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). That follows on the heels of last year's 39% and average annual returns the past five years of 27%, versus 14% for the S&P and 20% for the XAU.

We ain't seen nothing yet if he's right about gold heading higher. Hathaway spoke with us from Colorado, where he was attending the industry-sponsored Denver Gold Forum

Link to full article:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...818043179.html

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information Re: Former Goldman Banker to Head Bank of Canada

How could it not be bullish when Goldman places another alumnus into a senior G7 policy wonk position... :rolleyes:

Carney, Former Goldman Banker, to Head Bank of Canada

By Greg Quinn and Theophilos Argitis

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper picked Mark Carney, a finance ministry official and former investment banker at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., to succeed David Dodge as governor of the Bank of Canada.

Carney, 42, will be only the second outsider to run the central bank since it was formed in 1934. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected Senior Deputy Governor Paul Jenkins, a three-decade veteran of the bank, would get the job. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty made the announcement today.

Carney joins the growing ranks of Goldman Sachs alumni at top positions in the global financial system. Carney brings international banking experience to the job as the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis and a soaring Canadian dollar jeopardize the longest economic expansion since World War II.

Link to full article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...o&refer=canada