Bullish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. DJI P&F bullish reversal.

Richard Russell 3/21/07 http://dowtheoryletters.com/

In speaking of the DJI point and figure chart:

The pattern had taken the form of a head-and-shoulders top. From the looks of it, the Dow had been working on the right shoulder of the pattern. The Dow broke down to the 11950 box, but wait -- the latest action is a rally (row of Xs) to the Dow 12450 box.

This is a clear bullish reversal to the upside, and it puts the Dow in position for an attack on the high. With my PTI at a new record high yesterday and obviously higher today, the odds tip toward new highs in the Dow and many of the major stock indices in the days ahead.

By the way, leading the D-J Averages is the D-J Utility Average, which closed at a new record high today. A new high in the Utility Average is a major plus for the stock market. Classically, the Utility Average tends to top out BEFORE the rest of the market or sometimes simultaneously with the major averages.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. 9 to 1 up days in volume

MARK HULBERT
Nine to one
A rare and bullish technical event occurred Wednesday, Mar 21, 2007

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...7C268E%7D&dist=

In an interview, Professor Aronson told me that recently, he and the students in a class he teaches at Baruch tested the statistical basis for Zweig's confidence in double 9-to-1 signals. They did not differentiate between such signals that were accompanied by intervening 9-to-1 down days and signals that were not.
Professor Aronson told me that he and his "class used data from the beginning of 1942 through fall of 2006, and we looked at what happens in the stock market in the 60-trading-day period following a Zweig double 9-to-1 signal, versus what happens the rest of the time. In those 60-trading-day windows, the S&P 500 index (SPX : SPX1,436.11, +1.57, +0.1%) produced an average annualized return of over 22%, on the assumption that an investor entered the market on the close the day after a double 9-to-1 signal was triggered and held until the end of the 60th trading day later. In the non-signal periods, in contrast, the return averaged 4.5% annualized. The difference between these two average returns is statistically significant." (Professor Aronson told me that these calculations do not include dividends.)

The last time a double 9-to-1 signal was triggered was June 29 of last year. An investor who bought the S&P 500 at the close on June 30 and held for 60 trading days realized an annualized gain of 19%, remarkably close to the 22% average that Professor Aronson found going back to 1942.

If one is bearish, this article is worth reading.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Another bullish "signal."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market...2007/0322.html

3/22/07

IBD Follow Through Day Moves Market Into "Confirmed Rally"

BY MARTIN GOLDBERG, CMT

Wednesday’s rally brought about an Investors Business Daily (IBD) follow through day thereby putting the market in “confirmed rally” mode. IBD’s word on the stock market as of Tuesday evening was, “market in correction.” But with Wednesday’s action, the benefit of the doubt moves from the bears to the bulls all within a single day. In recent years, the IBD method has been as good as any in predicting the intermediate term position of the stock market. Also relevant is the fact that what they consider to be leading stocks are acting well. While a cynic can throw several rationales at the recent action of the stock market, one trades against IBD’s method at their own significant risk. With regard to IBD, when you find a hot guru, it pays to follow his advice. Trading against the methodology of the hot guru can be both demeaning and expensive.

Further support for bullishness just now.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re: Equity, $,

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2007/0326.html and http://www.buythebottom.com/blog/ This latter link is to West's site.

James West posts COT charts.

RUT, SPX, NDX, DJI are all pointing UP.

US Dollar [ http://www.buythebottom.com/usd.html ]
The US dollars is setup for a rally, and is literally touching strong support at $82.5. If the USD holds above $82.5, then it looks like we will see a leg-up develop from these levels to perhaps challenge resistance at $85.5 – 87.5.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. What's next?

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...cle-outset-box


Barron's 4/2/07 (subscription required]


Bracing for Trouble

Interview With Larry Jeddeloh, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, TIS Group by Sandra Ward

Jeddeloh is expecting a 15-20% decline between May and October.

Ward: How are you positioning yourself for a decline the likes of which you see coming?


Jeddeloh: In our global-allocation model, we're 35% in stocks, 45% in cash and 20% in bonds. In the next month or two you could see the markets run again to the upside after this last correction. That's the worst thing that can happen because that will suck everybody in. When that happens, we are going to flip our allocation from cash almost entirely into longer bonds, and we'll reduce our equity component to our minimum of 20% and maybe even go a bit lower. If we get the decline I'm describing later in the year, it might be of short duration. There was a big equity shrink last year, and that's a very powerful dynamic. The private-equity guys may come right after some of the names they are looking for and, bang, the market will go right back up and we'll have a pretty good 2008.

[emphasis-JN]

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information Re. What's next?

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...cle-outset-box


Barron's 4/2/07 (subscription required]


Bracing for Trouble

Interview With Larry Jeddeloh, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, TIS Group by Sandra Ward

Jeddeloh is expecting a 15-20% decline between May and October.


[emphasis-JN]

C'mon, it was supposed to be bullish info!

How about this for bullish:
State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), released today the results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index® for March 2007. Global Investor Confidence increased sharply by 10.0 points to 100.6 from February's revised reading of 90.6. Looking regionally, the confidence of North American institutional investors rose strongly from 101.9 to 115.1. The confidence of European investors decreased 5.1 points to 87.4, while the confidence of Asian investors increased slightly from a revised reading of 82.5 to 82.8.




from: http://www.statestreet.com/industry_..._overview.html

One can also use it a contrarian info as the index was high in 2000 and 2001.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. What's next?

C'mon, it was supposed to be bullish info!

How about this for bullish:
State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), released today the results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index® for March 2007. Global Investor Confidence increased sharply by 10.0 points to 100.6 from February's revised reading of 90.6. Looking regionally, the confidence of North American institutional investors rose strongly from 101.9 to 115.1. The confidence of European investors decreased 5.1 points to 87.4, while the confidence of Asian investors increased slightly from a revised reading of 82.5 to 82.8.

from: http://www.statestreet.com/industry_..._overview.html

One can also use it a contrarian info as the index was high in 2000 and 2001.

f_j,

The bullish bit was the run-up suggested by Jeddeloh for the next two months.

[DemonD]

Re: Bullish Information

I think once the housing numbers start coming out for March, April, and May, that "confidence" will quickly turn into an "OMFG WTH man!" score.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold

April 16, 2007
Keep Focused
by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7370.htm

HEADED HIGHER
An intermediate rise we call C started on January 5, which means it's been underway for about three months.
C rises tend to be the best, strongest rise in a bull market when gold reaches new bull market highs. Gold is currently at a nine month high and it has a good chance of testing and surpassing the May highs. For now, if gold can rise and stay clearly above $690, then $722 will become an easy target. Gold would be impressive above this level as it would reconfirm that a very strong bull market is underway.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Margin Debt

MARK HULBERT
Investing on the margin
Commentary: Debt levels aren't high enough to trigger bear-market indicator

4/13/07 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...8FDC4F%7D&dist=

Is there any way to resurrect a market-timing indicator from these cross currents? Fosback argued in his book that there was such a way, by comparing a given month's margin debt level with a 12-month moving average. The indicator would be bullish if above the moving average, and bearish otherwise.

Such an indicator does not have a perfect track record, to be sure - though, of course, no indicator does. But Fosback reports that, in 35 years of back testing, the indicator had an "excellent record."

Fosback's back testing didn't include the 2000-2002 bear market, of course. But the indicator acquitted itself creditably then, too. Though it would not have issued a sell signal at the exact top in March 2000, it would have done so by the fall of that year, before the bulk of that bear market's carnage. And the indicator would have gone back on a buy signal by mid 2003, quite early in the bull market that continues to this day.

The bottom line? Margin debt may be higher now than it was in March 2000, but that is more of a good thing than a bad thing. If and when a bear market occurs, confirmation will come when margin debt falls below its 12-month moving average.

We're not anywhere close to that yet.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Contrarian View

MARK HULBERT
What's the encore?
Commentary: From contrarian view, stock prices will continue rising

4/16/07 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...6F967A05BFB%7D

Fortunately for the bulls, contrarian analysis continues to point to higher stock prices.
.
.
According to contrarian analysis, a major stock market top will occur when the prevailing sentiment is stubborn bullishness. The dead giveaway that this is the dominant mood will be the reactions of short-term market timers in the wake of the first correction off of the market's top: He will refuse to reduce his equity exposure, and may even increase it.

That's what happened at the top of the stock market in March 2000, by the way. And we're not seeing anything like that kind of stubborn bullishness today.

Personally, I closed some +200% positions on NDX, SPX, RUT, & MID yesterday, so that too probably predicts higher equity market prices.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. US$ Index, US Markets, gold.

James West http://www.buythebottom.com/blog/ who follows commitment of traders data has not updated his blog comments since 4/3/07, but he continues to send those signed up emails each week saying he has updated the charts at the above link. He makes some comments in his email notification. If one looks at the charts, note that he has not been updating the 3-year charts.

** The US Dollar has been trying to put in a bottom over the last week or so. Meanwhile net-commercial position continues to increase which is very bullish for this market. Short-term resistance is around 82 - 82.5.

** The stock market from a COT perspective continues to look bullish.
The S&P 500 is the most bullish index, as net-commercial position
increased while the market rallied from the March lows. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq-100 also look relatively good, as commercial selling has
been marginal during the most recent rally. The Russell 2000 is much
more bearish than the other indexes in terms of its COT chart as well
as its price chart. Notice that as commercials are selling into the
current rally, the index is also having a hard time to decisively clear
resistance at around 830. We may clear this level next week, who
knows, but until then this divergence is worth paying close attention to.

** The VIX continues to consolidate, more or less, keep in mind that there is a gap at around 16-17. I believe this gap will get filled sooner or later, and when/if it does, that would probably coincide with a correction in the stock market. On the same token, I do not see why we cannot see a breakdown on the VIX to the $10 level. At the current time, a breakout
would most probably present a good buying opportunity.

** Crude finally broke down below its triangle formation and also broke
below its channel support. Unless we rally back above $64, this market
is probably headed lower. (A consolidation period is also possible).

** Gold's COT chart at the current time is not painting a very clear picture, at least not to me. The trend however is still intact, as gold bounced off of support @ 670. As long as the current up-trend remains intact, we are headed for a re-test of the 2006 highs. (around 720-730)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. US$

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Thursday 05/10/07 http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html

OTHER MARKETS We are on a buy for bonds as of April 16.

We are moving to a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of today May 10.

We are moving back to a sell for gold as of today May 10.

We are on a sell signal for crude as of April 19.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Richard Russell

5/14/07 Last week Russell said he was wrong that the DJI had been in a bear market since the 2000 top. Today he writes about something he calls the "50% principle." "The 50% Principle states that following an extended rise in the Dow, if a following decline retains at least half of the Dow's preceding gains, the primary trend is taken to remain bullish. I want to emphasize that the advance must be extended in both duration and extent. The 50% Principle cannot be applied to advances of a few months or so."

The DJI did not correct 50% or more of its move from its 1980 lows, and because it didn't correct that much, the primary trend since 1980 remains bullish. He also adds that the lows in 10/02 did not reach valuations seen at true bear market bottoms.

He also points out that, "The investing public is now skeptical to actually go bearish. Millions of investors are still locked into losses on houses or condo which they bought over recent years. At the same time, Americans are being bombarded with negative news on housing, medical, college tuition, gas prices, rising taxes, cost-of-living expenses, the war in Iraq, the Iranian nuclear situation, and massive government deficits. I believe a stock market decline this year would serve to turn the investing public from sceptical and worried to stone-bearish. That could create an extraordinary buying opportunity in an ongoing bull market."

"Older subscribers who have lived through other bull markets know that the "difficult part" of a bull market is making it through the first and second phases. When the all-out speculative third phase arrives, more money is made than was made during the first and second phases of the bull market taken together."

"Any correction from here will turn them even more sceptical and very probably stone-bearish. Against that background, I believe that the final full expression of this bull market lies ahead. At that time we should see excitement and speculation beyond anything we've seen before. Maybe the current explosive action on the Shanghai exchange is simply a preview of what I see coming up once the US investing public turns bullish. Exciting times do, indeed, lie ahead."

He asks if the Dow has been rising as it has in face of apathy of the investing public, what might happen if the public investors really turn bullish? He says hold onto your stocks and look for a terrific buying opportunity that he thinks may arrive between now and the 4th quarter this year.

One thing that has struck me about Russell's change of opinion is that it could represent capitulation of perhaps one of the biggest bears who still stood, or he could be on the money in pointing out why he has been wrong and what may likely be in the offing.

To me his sentiments are not incongruous with EJ's Ka-Poom.

What could lead to the possible correction later this year? Russell speculates that it could be a "blood-curdling" correction in the Shanghai market and other Asian markets, which he thinks would affect all the world's markets.

[flow5]

Re: Bullish Information

Prechter couldn't even get his 800 number right. His prolific turn calling eventually results in a correct call, but in the interim you can lose your shirt.

Gold's going to resume an accelerated climb for the same reasons it did in the last run-up - falling interest rates from a softening economy; followed by a change in monetary policy towards greater ease or less restraint, coupled with a falling dollar. It's not far away.


And Bernake's goldilocks landing is still in place.

St Louis
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