Bullish Information

[jk]

Re: Bullish Information

i've never been able to make much sense out of elliot waves, but i like prechter's notions about social mood moving the market. certainly, psychology matters, A LOT, at least in the short run. but, as buffett likes to say, in the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. that is, value ultimately determines price. but then there's that saying of keynes about being dead in the long run, and another about the market staying irrational [staying a voting machine] for long enough to break you. enough quotes!?!?#&**

fwiw, i agree with casey's assessment of the gold market. it's still early days. we are in the transition from stage 1 to stage 2 of what will be a 3 stage process. gold has been accumulated by the early adopters, and is building a base as it is accumulated by institutions, especially cb's, "diversifying" their reserves. stage 2 will be characterized by the legitimization of gold and commodities as asset classes to be included in every investor's properly diversified portfolio. the model for the masses will go from 60/40 equity/bonds to, perhaps, 55/30/15 equity/bonds/gold-commodities. this period will coincide with an "orderly" decline in the dollar vis a vis other currencies, and moderate inflation. in stage 3 the decline of the dollar becomes disorderly, and a gold bubble develops. richard russell has said that the 3rd stage in a gold bubble is different than any other asset bubble, because it is motivated not just by greed, but also by fear. something to look forward to, huh?

[for more, see the recent piece from minyanville on china, the dollar and gold, posted in the "got gold?" thread]

[Finster]

Re: Bullish Information

i've never been able to make much sense out of elliot waves, but i like prechter's notions about social mood moving the market. certainly, psychology matters, A LOT, at least in the short run. but, as buffett likes to say, in the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. that is, value ultimately determines price. but then there's that saying of keynes about being dead in the long run, and another about the market staying irrational [staying a voting machine] for long enough to break you. enough quotes!?!?#&**...

Pay no attention to Prechter's psychology and social mood voodoo. Prechter basically brought out the socionomic stuff because he was a failure in market forecasting.

The trouble with the manic-depressive model of market behavior is similar to that that plagues a lot of other market theories: it reduces a multidimemsional reality to a one-dimensional theory. Assets go up in value when mood is high, they go down when mood is low. So you want to be getting out of investments when mood is euphoric, and getting into them when it's in despair.

This seems to make sense when the asset class is question is the stock market. But what about the bond market? Sometimes it moves opposite the stock market, other times it moves in parallel. How about gold? Usually it does best when people think the economy is going down the tubes. What about cash? Prechter seems to assume it is not an asset, so if mood is really bad, they pile into cash.

Despite these objections, I think Prechter is brilliant and his books are a treaure trove of market insights. But forget the psych junk and the Elliott arcana.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

The Aden sisters, Mary Anne and Pamela, are considered by some to be experts on gold and silver.


Their thoughts are at http://www.safehaven.com/article-6303.htm

November 14, 2006
Renewed Rise Has Begun
by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

"The main point is, these metals are strong and they're bullish. Renewed rises are now underway and gold and silver are both set to move higher."

It's difficult for me to run across any comments that are negative on gold and silver right now, and to me that is negative.

[jk]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

It's difficult for me to run across any comments that are negative on gold and silver right now, and to me that is negative.

if you google "gold bubble" you'll get around 24,000 hits. feel better?

if you see friends or acquaintances, tell them you're doing a little survey and see how many of them own gold or gold stocks. i'll bet that the answer is "not many."

if you're at a gathering, listen to see if you hear anyone talking about gold. are they still talking about real estate?

i do think that gold could go down as low as 500 along with a big move down in the stock market. "ka." i hope i have the nerve to buy more.

[Finster]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

The Aden sisters, Mary Anne and Pamela, are considered by some to be experts on gold and silver.


Their thoughts are at http://www.safehaven.com/article-6303.htm

November 14, 2006
Renewed Rise Has Begun
by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

"The main point is, these metals are strong and they're bullish. Renewed rises are now underway and gold and silver are both set to move higher."

It's difficult for me to run across any comments that are negative on gold and silver right now, and to me that is negative.

I think JK is correct, Jim. Gold and silver were in a bear market for so long that the only people closely following it tend to be the smart money. Sentiment is most effective as a contrary indicator when it is that of the masses. Smart money sentiment relative to dumb money sentiment tends to be an affirmative factor.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

if you google "gold bubble" you'll get around 24,000 hits. feel better?

if you see friends or acquaintances, tell them you're doing a little survey and see how many of them own gold or gold stocks. i'll bet that the answer is "not many."

if you're at a gathering, listen to see if you hear anyone talking about gold. are they still talking about real estate?

i do think that gold could go down as low as 500 along with a big move down in the stock market. "ka." i hope i have the nerve to buy more.

I was just making an observation. I don't put much stock in the google search, but perhaps it means something.

If something takes gold to $500, I do not know what it would do to the 65 wk moving average. I guess the market price could still stay above it.

I don't have any friends or acquaitances and don't go to gatherings, so I think I am going to email those in my address book and do a survey as jk suggested.

[bart]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

I was just making an observation. I don't put much stock in the google search, but perhaps it means something.

If something takes gold to $500, I do not know what it would do to the 65 wk moving average. I guess the market price could still stay above it.

I don't have any friends or acquaitances and don't go to gatherings, so I think I am going to email those in my address book and do a survey as jk suggested.

Here's a key chart that I've been known to use. Its the amount of hits at the kitco.com web site from alexa.com:

http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?u=kit...=3&h=400&w=700

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

Here's a key chart that I've been known to use. Its the amount of hits at the kitco.com web site from alexa.com:

http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?u=kit...=3&h=400&w=700

Smart chart, Bart!

I looked at bit deeper from the address you posted, and came up with http://www.alexa.com/data/details/tr...?url=kitco.com which gives a fair amount of detail of hits at Kitco, and a chart that can show time frames up to 5 years. Its data reflect the price of gold rather much it seems. The Kitco hits appear to be lagging the recent bounce in gold.

[bart]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

Smart chart, Bart!

I looked at bit deeper from the address you posted, and came up with http://www.alexa.com/data/details/tr...?url=kitco.com which gives a fair amount of detail of hits at Kitco, and a chart that can show time frames up to 5 years. Its data reflect the price of gold rather much it seems. The Kitco hits appear to be lagging the recent bounce in gold.

Nicely done on the follow up, and now you know one of the reasons why I don't think there's much broad based bullish gold sentiment.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold $1,450???

GOLD: PUTTING IT INTO PERSPECTIVE
by George Kleinman
Editor, Commodities Trends
November 13, 2006

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2006/1113.html

Kleinman notes from the late '70's how gold corrected 17% in Oct-Nov 1979 and suggests that the current correction in gold could work out similarly. He's not saying it will, just showing the similarity of then and recently using charts.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Uranium

RESOURCE OPPORTUNITIES ARE EXPLODING! by David N. Vaughn Gold Letter, Inc. November 14, 2006

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/1114.html

Vaughn is a bit enthusiastic, "Remember that old Waylon Jennings song? “Baby That Dog Won’t Hunt!” Well, friends, let me tell you that this dog will hunt and those investing ASAP in uranium companies are going to make a lot of money. And it is a resource and that is what we are all about, right? Discovering which resource commodity is “hot to trot.”"

This article is super-bullish, like in, he's selling uranium, but the arguments for nuclear power to me are compelling, and I think eventually will provide most of the world's electricity, if there is enough uranium and if there is a world.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Bonar

From Barron's online 11/18/06 [subscription required]
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB..._magazine_main

The Buck Takes Wing by Gene Epstein


"All of this suggests that the dollar has strong support to keep it from falling below 80 on the index. But it doesn't necessarily mean it will rise to 90. That scenario keys off an uncanny forecasting model developed by David Ranson of Wainwright & Co. Economics.

Based on Ranson's model, the upward movement in short-term rates over three of the past four years is calling for a better-than 5% appreciation in the dollar against other currencies.

The Wainwright economist has also found that this rather stunning correlation is not affected by what happens to economic growth. So even if, as many expect, the U.S. economy decelerates over the next 12 months, the appreciation in the dollar should still occur."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. 4 year cycles

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...61117_4yr.html

Carl Swenlin gives his interpretation of the four year cycle, which he thinks was shallow and bottomed in July, much to the chagrin of the bears.

All of the sectors he follows in his note are on "buys." Stocks, gold, and 30-yr. bond are "bullish." The bonar is "bearish." CRB and oil are "neutral."

Swenlin says, "Bottom Line: Many investors are still expecting a major decline later this year, but I think that is unlikely because a new 4-Year Cycle is beginning. Prices should remain in an up trend for several months, if the cycle unfolds in a typical fashion."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

During the rather sharp declines in the major indices from early May into June and July, there were a flurry of 9-to-1 volume days on the NYSE that were both negative and positive technical indications of either "panic selling" or "panic buying" as defined by Paul Desmond at Lowry's Report.
If this is at all interesting, one might read the thread http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=142.

Mark Hulbert wrote an article on 7/4/06 that was in retrospect an equisitely timed comment regarding the possible significance of 9-to-1 up volume days on the NYSE. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...F-F6243258DA5B} [in order to access this link, one needs to copy the full address plus the terminal "}" into the browser].

Hulbert suggested that the positive 9-to1 up volume day in 3/16/2000 was a "false" buy signal. Well it was if one traded the Nasdaq or RUT on the signal, but looking at the SPX, DJI, and NYA one could have made some money over the next 5.5 months with perfect timing!

I put this up because its significance to me is that the last two signals suggest in the least an upward move in the equity markets for perhaps at least six months. Now we are 5.5 months off the first 9-to-1 buy signal using this indicator. One might also consider what Mike Burk's analysis is showing http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=555 post #28.

[Finster]

Re: Bullish Information Re. 4 year cycles

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...61117_4yr.html

Carl Swenlin gives his interpretation of the four year cycle, which he thinks was shallow and bottomed in July, much to the chagrin of the bears.

All of the sectors he follows in his note are on "buys." Stocks, gold, and 30-yr. bond are "bullish." The bonar is "bearish." CRB and oil are "neutral."

Swenlin says, "Bottom Line: Many investors are still expecting a major decline later this year, but I think that is unlikely because a new 4-Year Cycle is beginning. Prices should remain in an up trend for several months, if the cycle unfolds in a typical fashion."

It also could be that it has yet to bottom. In 1986 the four-year-cycle low didn't amount to much, either. Remember what happened the next year ...