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**Jim Nickerson** · October 28, 2006, 07:11 PM

Re: Bullish Information re: Energy Sector

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/KOSAR.html

A very bullish article on the energy, and its potential correlation to future FOMC tightening.

**Jim Nickerson** · October 28, 2006, 07:18 PM

Re: Bullish Information. Re: Oil and Gold

http://buythebottom.blogspot.com/

This site comments on a number of markets. The current post is from Wednesday 10/25/06, though the charts linked to the comments are through Friday's close. There is no other site I have come upon that tracks Commitment of Traders as James West does. He will put out his comments this coming Tuesday or Wednesday. One can subscribe for notification.

He interprets oil as bottoming and continuing "to be setup for a rally."

"Conversely to oil, gold did not make a lower lows, and remains setup for a rally."

**Jim Nickerson** · October 28, 2006, 07:34 PM

Re: Bullish Information. Re: General Equity.

This is a post I put up two days ago in another thread regarding general bullishness on US equity markets.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=3915#post3915. It is post #19 in that thread.

**Jim Nickerson** · October 28, 2006, 08:00 PM

Re: Bullish Information. Re: General markets.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061026/phth044.html?.v=60

This is by someone who has a record, that is better than most, of beating the SPX for over a decade--Bill Miller of Legg Mason. This in an interesting article that touches on belief concepts. It does not have much informational or technical support for Miller's stance on the market, but he is clear in his position on the markets, "Count me somewhere between bullish and very bullish. Bill Miller October 21, 2006," and generally offers support for his stance in the last paragraph.

Thanks to Uncle Jack whose post http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ghlight=Miller post # 3, pointed me to the article.

**Jim Nickerson** · October 28, 2006, 11:17 PM

Re: Bullish Information. Re. General Markets

Abby Joseph cohen in a video on Barron's Home page (10/28/06) speaking for Goldman Sachs thinks the SPX will hit 1400 by year end, and 1460 in 12 months. She said her firm sees no recession for a year or two.

**Jim Nickerson** · October 29, 2006, 06:30 PM

Re: Bullish Information. Re. General Markets

http://safehaven.com/article-6186.htm 10/28/06

Mike Burk, Technical Market Report, puts out this report each weekend.

It contains data that I do not think I see elsewhere. If you do not read the whole thing, at least read that after the subtitle November. November has a strong record of being up especially in the second year of a presidential cycle. Since a good bit of market behavior this year has not kept with bears' expectations, perhaps for the bears' sakes this month will not turn out to be such a winner, but I would not bet on that myself.

**Jim Nickerson** · October 29, 2006, 06:38 PM

Re: Bullish Information. Re. Unleaded gas, oil

http://safehaven.com/article-6184.htm Tim Wood 10/29/06

This Dow theorist and cycles enthusiast notes short and intermediate-term buy signals on unleaded gas and crude oil.

**Jim Nickerson** · October 29, 2006, 06:46 PM

Re: Bullish Information. Re. Commodities

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...006/1029b.html

Oroborean (whoever or whatever that is?) took the Fed statement from last week to be bullish for commodities.

**Jim Nickerson** · October 30, 2006, 09:21 AM

Re: Bullish Information. multiple mkts up % down

http://buythebottom.blogspot.com/

James West's comments are out early this week. This message comments on NDX, RUT, SPX, DJI, Gold, Oil, bonar. Brief comments I think worth reading.

**Jim Nickerson** · October 30, 2006, 11:37 AM

Re: Bullish Information. Re. Silver

A news article on silver perhaps reaching $15/oz.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...o&dist=myyahoo

**metalman** · October 30, 2006, 11:08 PM

Re: Bullish Information. Re. General Markets

Originally posted by Jim Nickerson

Abby Joseph cohen in a video on Barron's Home page (10/28/06) speaking for Goldman Sachs thinks the SPX will hit 1400 by year end, and 1460 in 12 months. She said her firm sees no recession for a year or two.

been reading your posts, jim. thanks for the hard work on this.

i guess my take-away is that shills for stocks are shilling away, shills for commodities are shilling away, the bears selling bear funds are bearish, etc. the data are bad. everyone's got an angle. i'll stick with my common sense... the housing bubble is going to take down demand, the only lever left is liquidity... guess i'm a die-hard kapoomer.

abby. can't believe they're hauling her miserable lying pie hole out again. mean million of people are so stupid they don't know how they breath without a coach... "in!", "out!", "in!", "out!"

**spunky** · October 30, 2006, 11:56 PM

Re: Bullish Information.

Thanks for the links Jim

**Jim Nickerson** · October 31, 2006, 12:50 AM

Re: Bullish Information. Re. General Markets

Originally posted by metalman

been reading your posts, jim. thanks for the hard work on this.

i guess my take-away is that shills for stocks are shilling away, shills for commodities are shilling away, the bears selling bear funds are bearish, etc. the data are bad. everyone's got an angle. i'll stick with my common sense... the housing bubble is going to take down demand, the only lever left is liquidity... guess i'm a die-hard kapoomer.

abby. can't believe they're hauling her miserable lying pie hole out again. mean million of people are so stupid they don't know how they breath without a coach... "in!", "out!", "in!", "out!"

metalman,

Compared to real work of any sort, posting here is not work, but rather an attempt at becoming a bit smarter, or a bit less dumb. Personally I am bearish; however, I was psyched out of being bullish at the most recent bottom. We definitely do not lack for bearishness here on iTulip, but this thread was begun to attempt to find some reasonable, or seemingly reasonable, people who are 180 degree different in their opinions on where this market is headed. So far all the comments I have posted here are recent. I have tried, and would urge anyone when putting up references, to find what might be some people with some reasonable credentials who may be bullish. I do not personally know zip about some of the individuals who have written the articles I have referenced, but they are from people whom I have followed for some period of time, and they do not seem to be outright crocks.

I do not know if Cohen, or anyone on the selling-end of fiancncial products is to be trusted, probably best to be highly skeptical of anything positive they espouse right now, but on the other hand, who knows they may be correct for a while, whatever a while is. One thing about Cohen's, or Goldman Sachs', targets is that they do not say anything about what may happen between 1400 at year's end and 1460 in 12 months. All hell could intervene between 1400 if that is hit, and when 1460 were to be hit if it even occurs.

If one is seriously bearish and are putting one's money where one's mouth is with short poisitions, and these bugger equity markets keep going up for a while, one may be handed his/her head. I surely took a haircut from the recent lows, but then I am not too agile. I am not short anything right now but a bit on the bonar.

I encourage others to post seemingly good arguments whether bearish or bullish on these two threads, and personal opinions are good too.

**DemonD** · October 31, 2006, 02:17 AM

Re: Bullish Information.

As a stock-loving atheist, I feel the need to add to my bullishness here.

To me, when you look at the "stock market," it is not so big that you take it as a whole and forget that it is made up of a relatively small amount of parts. Especially the Dow, which has only 30 stocks on it, but a lot of the other indices are relatively small.

I think it was on here that I learned just how small the stock market is versus the bond market.

I cannot speak to bonds. The inverted yield curve is scary, but only in the sense of how it relates to stocks, cash, and geopolitics.

I will say this: many of the equities that I track on the value end are near or just below what I consider to be fair value. Some of the more "growth" stocks are near or above fair value. I'm an abashedly big lover of Google of which I hold shares. However, it is getting to the point where I am about to sell Google. I am bullish on Google as a company, but not as a stock.

On the value end, there are still great ways to get in, especially in the small to mid-caps. My two favorite oil stocks are at or below what I consider fair value with huge upside potential. While itulip advocates for PM holdings to combat inflation or hyperinflation, one of the best (if not THE best) ways to have inflation build in to your investments is by buying healthcare stocks or mutual funds. The one thing that everyone ends up spending a helluva lot of money on is their health. Our country may end up going broke because of healthcare. My feelings on oil and healthcare are just like my feelings on the stock market: If you can't beat em, join em!

I had a sociology professor that was beyond anti-capitalism. He was showing how the CEO of Cypress Semiconductor was moving jobs from the US to India for their "shareholders' sake." His argument was "Well, who are the shareholders... the CEO and the company executives that's who!"

My thought was "Well, this company is on the open market... why instead of bitching about this wouldn't you just buy shares of the company and make money off it?"

If you can't beat em, join em.

My favorite method of investing was touched on in another thread "Show Me the Money." Google is one of my 2 non-dividend paying stocks (the other is a swing-for-the-fences gamble on a biotech stock). Get a list of Dividend Achievers (either by Mergeant or S&P). These are companies that have raised their dividends every year for the past 10 years at least, and some have for decades or longer. Some who have been through the Great Depression.

I'd be willing to share my entire portfolio or give my personal stock tip favorites, but I don't want to seem like a Cramer. I like stocks right now, I like them big time, at least for the short term. I find it wholly possible based on earnings that if oil stays down the dow could hit 12500 or 13000, and the s&p could hit 1400 or beyond by early next year.

HOWEVER... medium to long term I am being careful. As soon as I see the Fed lower rates, i'm getting the hell out of stocks and into as much PM-related investments as I can - and yes, those will be stocks or mutual funds.

REITs. Again we have to be careful with REITs and do DD, but REITs still look very nice for a long term dividend and appreciation stand point. My REIT play is done through vanguard's small cap value index fund (of which about 1/4th of that fund's equities are REITs).

-----------------

Short-term, long-term, i love stocks with dividends on a value slant.

Medium term, I may move some things around, but I doubt I will move away from my core stock holdings, as I use them almost as some people use a savings account. I also like to think (wishful?) that if the US bonar becomes completely worthless, then if I own let's say 100 shares of JNJ, I still own 100 shares of JNJ. That piece of that company is still worth something in Euros or Yen or Gold or whatever. While the bonar is not backed by anything tangible, a piece of a company is something physical in nature.

That being said, I know if a company goes belly-up it's the bondholders that get paid first and the stockholders are left holding the bag, but again, that's why they always say DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE (DD).

Even in another great depression, people will still buy toothepaste, soap, bandaids, diapers, etc. Might as well join em instead of fighting them.

--------------

One final thought:

Yes oh yes I am super bullish on PM-related stocks. This is why I asked it in a thread below, and why i asked for information on the last time we went through a hyperinflation. My next investment WILL be in either a PM-related or an oil company. If gold goes to 2000/ounce, how much freakin cash are NEM and ABX going to be making?

To quote spaceballs:

"It's not just a lot of money. It's a s**tload of money!"

-DD

p.s. If anyone wants to know why I love stocks so much, to me it's just because it's easier to look at the micro fundamentals of one company and put some money in it, and just let it sit there, and it does the work for you. Much harder to determine the macros of gold and bonds and the yen-carry and individual RE investing requires time put into it, etc. etc... i'm lazy, let me buy some blue chip dividend payers and i'll go to sleep and watch my DRIP do the magic of compounding to make me more wealthy.

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