Bullish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. One guy says buy SPY.

today is a perfect example of why this chartistic 'number of new lows' and 'retest of yesterday's low at some point' crap is crap.

the market went up like nuts because the gov't stepped in and scared shorts to cover.

do the charts predict that?

does no good to ponder the factors of the horse if there's a jockey on its back.

metalman, what is your problem? Are you so freakin' close-minded that you think anyone who does NOT think and see things your way is wrong? That is the impression I get. Usually people that are so full of believing they are so right about markets get their asses handed to them at some point, do you think you'll live long enough to ever see that happen to yourself, or that you will necessarily be wise enough to recognize it?

Charts certainly in the manner I use them predict nothing that is guaranteed. There have been any number of indications that the equity markets have either been very oversold and some sectors very overbought for at least the six market days prior to today. If you wish to ignore that, then fine--which you apparently do as a buy and hold investor. Not everyone is of your ilk. Why can't you come to acceptance of that fact?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Calls with Balls--Maund

I should have posted this last night, but was too lazy, and moreso, I should have taken the advice, which I didn't. Nevertheless, this is a good call if but for one day. Two airlines I follow are UAUA and CAL, up as I write 67% and 42% respectively, and neither gapped up.

http://safehaven.com/article-10802.htm

July 21, 2008
The Airline Sector - Opportunity Cloaked in Crisis...
by Clive Maund

Worth reading even after the fact of today.

[bart]

Re: Bullish Information

For what its worth:

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Ord using McClellan indicators.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

This note by Ord, based on 7/22/08 market close gives a nice interpretation of how he uses the McClellan oscillator and summation indices in attempting to determine intermediate market direction.
.

Above is the NYSE Summation index dating for three years. The NYSE McClellan Summation index turned up on July 17 and gave a buy signal and we are long the SPX at 1260.32. Bullish signals are triggered when the Summation index trades below minus 1000 and then turns up. On the current buy signal the Summation index turned up from below -2800. To help confirm the uptrend in the NYSE, we would like to see the McClellan Oscillator to reach the +200 range. This condition would show force to the upside and show the market has changed the energy from down to up. The Advance/Decline line was positive today and may have pushed the McClellan Oscillator to the +200 level which in turn would help to confirm the uptrend. Also when the Summation index trades to +200 and above, the market is short term overbought and would imply that a consolidation may occur. This potential short term consolidation would not affect the intermediate term uptrend.

My data which are based on the NYSE advances and declines as reported by the WSJ show that for the NYSE today the McClellan oscillator did close above 200, to be exact 208. You may gain some insight to the oscillator at http://www.mcoscillator.com/Data.html McClellan puts up his numbers each day, and they serve as check on one's own data, if one collects it, for errors.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information RE.Pring Bullish

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/w...optimistic.pdf

July 17, 2008

TIME TO BE OPTIMISTIC

Yes, the financial news gets worse every day. Yes, the average stock is down more than 25% over the past thirteen months. Yes, the housing market is still reeling and foreclosure activity is rising. Yes, the price of gas is skyrocketing. And yes, this too will pass, and the economy and stock market will begin a new expansion and sustainable bull market, as all business cycles have. Over our several decades of investment management experience, we have witnessed many business cycle recessions and stock market declines. They all have one thing in common. In the midst of the most negative financial news, the stock market (fulfilling its role as an accurate leading economic indicator) begins to move higher in anticipation of the next economic recovery. We believe the market has more than discounted all the bad news out there and is putting the finishing touches on the bottoming process for stocks. Yes, a significant advance is set to begin that will take stocks much higher in the year ahead.

FOUR KEY REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC TODAY

1. Low Consumer Confidence = Profits Ahead

2. Bull Markets Always Follow Bear Markets

3. Lower Oil Prices Ahead

4. Record Cash Levels on Sidelines

If one is bearish to the point that the world will end, Pring's assessment should temper that in open minds.

Nevertheless, this is just another man's opinion.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Jobs report rally?

Jobs report: Is the stage set for stocks to rally? Dollar firmness can also continue, while bonds may be ripe for profit-taking

By Nick Godt, Lisa Twaronite & Deborah Levine, MarketWatch



http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...&dist=hplatest

As U.S. stocks enter the month of August, Friday's July jobs report may provide some needed upward momentum for this traditionally-slow period of the year.
"Tomorrow's jobs report is going to be critical" for the market, said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services.
It's not that the market expects employment to have rebounded, pointing to an economic rebound.

Instead, investors have been increasingly betting that enough bad news -- from ailing financial firms, to the slumping housing market, and surging oil prices -- might have been priced into stocks for now.

"You can rally in here because we're extremely oversold," Mendelsohn said. "We're still in a bear market, there's no question about that, but technicals are pointing to a short-term bottom."

Helping things along the way, stocks sold off late on Thursday, with traders cashing in profits from strong gains in the two previous sessions to close the books on a mixed performance in July.

More in article.

[Orforded]

Re: Bullish Information

Other than pointing to the fact that historically bull markets always follow bear markets and the economy always recovers from recession what is the argument for bull markets and economic recovery in this brave new world?

[metalman]

Re: Bullish Information

Other than pointing to the fact that historically bull markets always follow bear markets and the economy always recovers from recession what is the argument for bull markets and economic recovery in this brave new world?

there's always a bull market in something. bull market in cash and bonds in a depression, gold in an inflationary recession, stocks in a general econ expansion, not stocks in an economic contraction, and just certain kinds of stocks in a transition to a new kind of economy. ej has promised to tell us what stocks will benefit from the next gov't sponsored boom, but at this point is still saying avoid stocks, last i checked... Round up the usual suspects

Dear iTulip: Why is the stock market so f*cked?

[Orforded]

Re: Bullish Information

there's always a bull market in something. bull market in cash and bonds in a depression, gold in an inflationary recession, stocks in a general econ expansion, not stocks in an economic contraction, and just certain kinds of stocks in a transition to a new kind of economy. ej has promised to tell us what stocks will benefit from the next gov't sponsored boom, but at this point is still saying avoid stocks, last i checked... Round up the usual suspects

Dear iTulip: Why is the stock market so f*cked?

Yes MM, I should have been more precise. I meant to ask for the argument in favor of economic recovery and stock market recovery, DOW, S&P, etc.

[metalman]

Re: Bullish Information

Yes MM, I should have been more precise. I meant to ask for the argument in favor of economic recovery and stock market recovery, DOW, S&P, etc.

get rid of the fire economy and expand the new era industrial economy? biotech, nanotech, etc.?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Yes MM, I should have been more precise. I meant to ask for the argument in favor of economic recovery and stock market recovery, DOW, S&P, etc.

My assessment, which is limited by the amount of what I read regarding others' opinions and how I interpret them, is that there is almost nothing fundamentally bullish presently with regard to the equity markets.

To the contrary, sentiment indicators may be bullish, and there is a report yesterday by Mike Burk posted on http://www.safehaven.com/article-10898.htm that technically indicates the recent bounce might continue at least through next Friday.

What do I think? I am in the long +200% ETF's based on the major indices. That is really not a thought, but a bet.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. JPM prediction.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...38U&refer=home

Stocks Will Rise `Much Higher' This Year, JPMorgan's Lee Says

By Michael Patterson and Carol Massar

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks will climb ``much higher'' by the end of 2008 as falling commodity prices ease inflation concerns and investors buy shares that dropped the most during the market's sell-off, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Thomas Lee said.

``I'm still very confident that we're going to see much higher levels by year-end,'' the chief U.S. equity strategist said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``We're starting to see these contrarian, out-of-favor sectors come back.''

The New York-based strategist advised clients on June 6 to buy U.S. stocks, saying a surge in the May unemployment rate that sent the S&P 500 down 3.1 percent that day was an ``aberration.'' The index fell another 11 percent over the next five weeks, and the jobless rate climbed to the highest in more than four years in July. Lee, 39, said July 28 that stocks will probably ``bottom'' in the next month and he reiterated his year-end S&P 500 estimate of 1,450, a 13 percent gain from yesterday's close.

Lee's forecast is in line with the 1,454 average projection of nine Wall Street strategists who provide year-end estimates to Bloomberg News.
Crude oil prices dropped almost 20 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel last month.

As I wrote in a note above, I am long the major equity indices via ETF's, but my opinion is I think the markets still will take out the July lows before even any intermediate up move gets underway.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

PETER BRIMELOW 8/7/08
Long-time bear joins bulls
Commentary: Controversial Joe Granville says Dow could rise 800 points

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...F5126EB64FF%7D

Granville then asks: "Why am I currently bullish? Because I follow the market. The market on July 15 demanded that all market followers turn bullish. We had 1,304 new stock lows. That was the highest number of new lows in market history. That alone demanded that all shorts, with the exception of the oils be covered. But on that day we also saw a CLX downside non-confirmation, the Dow falling on a rising CLX."

The CLX or "Climax Indicator" is one of the many price patterns on which Granville, as a purist technician, absolutely depends. He defines it as "the net number of On-Balance Volume up and down designations." "On-Balance volume", invented by Granville more than 40 years ago, adds a period's volume when the close is up and subtracts it when it is down.
Granville's third signal: Sentiment: "At the start of all important advances or declines there is always disbelief."

Granville's current projection: "How far could this rally carry? My first guess could take it up 800 points, but my most recent research is taking aim at the 12,000 Dow area. I had said to do some buying in the airlines, banks, brokers, and casinos, but keep shorting the oils.

"This past week oil broke key supports and now looks headed for the $121 level. Only a few days ago, The Wall Street Journal said the consensus was looking for $200 a barrel, typically wrongly timed. I think anything under $121 projects to $100."

The article also recounts Granville's record over past 10 years.

[metalman]

Re: Bullish Information

PETER BRIMELOW 8/7/08
Long-time bear joins bulls
Commentary: Controversial Joe Granville says Dow could rise 800 points

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...F5126EB64FF%7D

The article also recounts Granville's record over past 10 years.

will anyone check to see if the recount of granville's record is accurate? doubt it. if he's a 'friend of marketwatch' they'll note the 10 times he was right and ignore the 10 times he was wrong.

let's track his advice... 'to do some buying in the airlines, banks, brokers, and casinos, but keep shorting the oils." reads like a prescription for losing the most money possible in the shortest time. buying banks and casinos at the top of a debt deflation? what an idiot.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

will anyone check to see if the recount of granville's record is accurate? doubt it. if he's a 'friend of marketwatch' they'll note the 10 times he was right and ignore the 10 times he was wrong.

let's track his advice... 'to do some buying in the airlines, banks, brokers, and casinos, but keep shorting the oils." reads like a prescription for losing the most money possible in the shortest time. buying banks and casinos at the top of a debt deflation? what an idiot.

metalman,

Granville's advice is posted, feel free later to look back whenever you run out of comments and see how his prognotication turned out.