Just another day @ the FED

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

Anybody who doesn't believe there's intervention, assuming that the above 2 charts are legit, is brain dead. And, whoever's doing the intervention, isn't even trying to be subtle, or hide the fact. Absolutley amazing.

I don't know who you are referring to as "brain dead," piffle, but anyone who looks at those charts, unless they are as smart as bart may be and draw conclusions from them is weak brained as far as I am concerned.

My question to bart is: if the futures quoted in a foreign currency show that pattern, why not just put up what the futures chart shows in the US$? Maybe they would be exactly the same, I don't know.

I'm not arguing about whether or not there is intervention. So what if there is, or has been during the other big up days, the markets were later lower. Also, when markets are severely oversold they tend to bounce, and those bounces cannot all be explained on intervention, (maybe some short covering or a lot of people thinking prices are good). If the up days are explained on some sort of intervention, what explains the near equally large down days: withdrawal of intervention? We are in a bear market of historical proportions and I don't think anyone here has seen its exact likes. As long as the +300 days up or down keep occurring I believe we continue to be in a bear market of basically uncharted waters.

[bart]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

My question to bart is: if the futures quoted in a foreign currency show that pattern, why not just put up what the futures chart shows in the US$? Maybe they would be exactly the same, I don't know.

See post #11 in this thread. It's a 5 minute chart in dollars and in the Central time zone.

I'm not arguing about whether or not there is intervention. So what if there is, or has been during the other big up days, the markets were later lower. Also, when markets are severely oversold they tend to bounce, and those bounces cannot all be explained on intervention, (maybe some short covering or a lot of people thinking prices are good). If the up days are explained on some sort of intervention, what explains the near equally large down days: withdrawal of intervention? We are in a bear market of historical proportions and I don't think anyone here has seen its exact likes. As long as the +300 days up or down keep occurring I believe we continue to be in a bear market of basically uncharted waters.

No disagreements at all, and yes - in my opinion *sometimes* down days do have a component of no or minimal intervention.

I want to also make it as clear as possible that intervention is only one of many factors that affect markets, and that it also does not in any way shape or form always work.

The Fed and Treasury are most definitely not omnipotent, but in my opinion they do have enough power to move markets sometimes. I believe that today was one example.

It's very difficult for me to walk the thin line between coming across as a loon or conspiracy freak, and also trying to be fair and balanced.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

See post #11 in this thread. It's a 5 minute chart in dollars and in the Central time zone.




No disagreements at all, and yes - in my opinion *sometimes* down days do have a component of no or minimal intervention.

I want to also make it as clear as possible that intervention is only one of many factors that affect markets, and that it also does not in any way shape or form always work.

The Fed and Treasury are most definitely not omnipotent, but in my opinion they do have enough power to move markets sometimes. I believe that today was one example.

It's very difficult for me to walk the thin line between coming across as a loon or conspiracy freak, and also trying to be fair and balanced.

Thanks, for repointing me to the US$ SPX futures chart, my recent memory retention is not always so good.

It looks a lot more like the cash SPX, doesn't it, and not perhaps so "machine driven" as perceived my metalman.

No arguments settled here as I see, plus I wasn't arguing I don't think. At any rate when the markets bottomed in 10/2002 for whatever the reasons, it at least saved my nominal ass, and I could stand a bit more of that now.

[Down Under]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

I don't know who you are referring to as "brain dead," piffle, but anyone who looks at those charts, unless they are as smart as bart may be and draw conclusions from them is weak brained as far as I am concerned.

For anyone who's done any real-time trading, there's only one conclusion that can be drawn from the charts bart has posted. Intervention.

Whether you want to believe that or not, is up to you. But the data is obvious..

[Down Under]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

I believe they're legit, but can't prove it - let the buyer beware, as always.

Yes, I wasn't questioning the validity of the charts as you posted, but just adding that as a rider; in other words, assuming that the charts are valid, this clearly shows intervention. And, as I said, about as subtle as a sledge hammer.

[*T*]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

... or black boxes in a thin market.

[bart]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

... or black boxes in a thin market.

Indeed. It's not necessarily the PWG.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

Intervention?

Looks more like sheep gathering at the doors of the slaughterhouse.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

Indeed. It's not necessarily the PWG.

bart, are you still out there? I'm not arguing here, but attemptiing to understand a bit more about what goes on in the world. I've never bought a futures contract on anything and will never, so zip experience.

Were the two charts you put up of the SP-500 in a foreign currency derived from the futures market in a foreign country? I don't even know how many futures markets there are in the world that trade SP-500 contracts, I assume there are many market places in different countries--but this is something I have never given a moment's thought til I went to bed last night.

If there are many futures markets in various countries with different investors, it would make sense to me that they would not all move exactly the same. That the two charts you put up showing time zones different from the US showed different price acitons than the US futures chart from the Central Time Zone, suggests there are different players in different places making trades. If not clear, these are all assumptions based on my ignorance.

If the two charts with nearly symmetrical steps up in prices are from a non-US exchange, and it was an absolute fact that they represent "intervention" by some Federal entity in the USA, why would it show up in a foreign market and not in the US futures chart of the SP-500?

[ggirod]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

Same, except a 1 minute chart showing the last hour or so.



I would propose an explanation somewhat less sinister than those put forth so far to explain this graph. Imagine a typical volatile stock market chart extending between the starting and ending points. Now, notice the red dots in this chart. Notice how they are not evenly spaced? That is because they represent the *only* data during the period that lay precisely on the line. The rest of the many omitted red points during the day were above and below the line.

So, I think that the answer is that this chart represents a straight line fit (based on the equation y=mx+b) with data points inserted where they happen to match. Now, the fact that a straight line approximation works so nicely with the data might be interesting, but I will bet that if the actual volatility in moment to moment prices were shown, you would neither express amazement nor seek explanations. As in many graphical interpretations one cannot always believe one's eyes.

[bart]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

bart, are you still out there? I'm not arguing here, but attemptiing to understand a bit more about what goes on in the world. I've never bought a futures contract on anything and will never, so zip experience.

Were the two charts you put up of the SP-500 in a foreign currency derived from the futures market in a foreign country? I don't even know how many futures markets there are in the world that trade SP-500 contracts, I assume there are many markets place in different countries--but this is something I have never given a moments thought til I went to bed last night.

If there are many futures markets in various countries with different investors, it would make sense to me that they would not all move exactly the same. That the two charts you put up showing time zones different from the US showed different price acitons than the US futures chart from the Central Time Zone, suggests there are different players in different places making trades. If not clear, these are all assumptions based on my ignorance.

If the two charts with nearly symmetrical steps up in prices are from a non-US exchange, and it was an absolute fact that they represent "intervention" by some Federal entity in the USA, why would it show up in a foreign market and not in the US futures chart of the SP-500?

To the best of my knowledge, the charts are of the US futures market but the values are expressed in a currency other than the dollar.

You are correct too that exchanges exist in other countries that trade S&P 500 contracts. They do get out of sync with US contracts sometimes too, but are usually brought back in fairly quickly by arbitrageurs who profit by the action of bringing them back in sync.

As far as why the two charts show different patterns, the only actual variable of which I'm aware between them is the value of the underlying currency or currency set. Do also note again that I'm not specifically accusing the Fed or Treasury of intervention or manipulation - they are far from the only players.

The simplest overall answer is that I just plain don't know with high certainty - I just use the charts as one element in my trading, and they have been helpful.

[bart]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

Yes, I wasn't questioning the validity of the charts as you posted, but just adding that as a rider; in other words, assuming that the charts are valid, this clearly shows intervention. And, as I said, about as subtle as a sledge hammer.

I didn't think you were questioning their validity either. I was mostly pointing out that the charts aren't mine so I can't vouch for them or their data 100%.

Subtlety hasn't been one of the strong suits of the markets lately too - outrageous volatility.

[Rajiv]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

To me it appears that the data servers that were supplying data to these people had a glitch, and they had missing data points, with only the start point and the end data point available. The charting software then appears to have filled the data by linear interpolation.

I have seen these kinds of data feed glitches on real time feeds -- generally not on trading platforms -- but even there, it happened to me a few times, and I had to get in or out of a position using the phone. This was when trading S&P mini futures. But I have not done that trading in over six years. So, I do not know how that data feeds have changed during that time -- Just observing Yahoo data feeds, I have seen this sort of behavior occurring with increasing frequency these last few weeks.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

Perhaps there is a lingo problem here. Obivously there is intervention ... sometimes obvious TARP (RIP) and sometimes not ...see charts. Perhaps the more ominous term to be used here is "fixed". The key point from the chart is the linear behavior regardless of almost anything. Linear behavior in a market means "controlled" and linear behavior on a short time scale means "fixed". People would be crazy to have money in this market at this point unless the know somebody who is controlling it.

[bart]

Re: Just another day @ the FED

Mish said that it wasn't the PPT and even posted this 15 minute futures chart to prove it... :eek: :rolleyes: ;)