Free Market PM Spot Price

[metalman]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

Guys, this is Ebay prices. You should know that Ebay gives out discounts and such.

Take, for example, the live.com discount, which is currently at 25% (a few weeks ago, last I used it it was 30%) with a max. of $200. So, the high eagle/kruger price of $912 can be discounted to $712, if purchased theough Buy It Now via live.com.

That's under spot.

read the 'about' on how the prices are calculated.

[bpr]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

read the 'about' on how the prices are calculated.

Okay, here it is:

eBay Precious Metals Exchange

About the Index The eBay Precious Metals Index is based on data taken from the US eBay site. The purpose of the Index is to provide true price data for gold and silver bullion coins and bars. The Index is published daily around 2AM Pacific Standard Time (GMT -7). A program was written to retrieve data from eBay for the categories shown in the Index images. The program tries to filter out collectable, commemorative, and unique items. The data is manually inspected to further refine the items included in the Index. All items are from the US eBay site and only items located in the US are included.

http://ebaypmx.com/eBayPMXFAQ.aspx

I'm not sure how this can take into account a rebate that can equal 25% (up to $200) refunded to the buyer's account from an outside vendor (live.com takes 60 days to process the rebate). Please explain.

It skews the numbers in a huge way. People who are unaware of the rebate will overbid after looking at closed auctions and seeing those high Buy it Now prices.

EDIT: All I'm saying is that right now, you can get an ounce or less of gold for under spot on ebay. Granted, you have to buy above spot and wait the 60 days for your refund, but if you want the physical gold, it'll be in your hand in a week. That in and of itself throws any data into question, especially since this doesn't work for bulk purchases. No one's selling 400 oz bars, and the max rebate is $200, so you're better off buying 400 1 oz coins with the rebate (from 70 different accounts, since MS limits your rebates to six per account and $200 per transaction).

ANOTHER EDIT: it appears that silver is a different story; even with the discount/rebate silver is going well over spot at Ebay.

[metalman]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

Okay, here it is:



http://ebaypmx.com/eBayPMXFAQ.aspx

I'm not sure how this can take into account a rebate that can equal 25% (up to $200) refunded to the buyer's account from an outside vendor (live.com takes 60 days to process the rebate). Please explain.

It skews the numbers in a huge way. People who are unaware of the rebate will overbid after looking at closed auctions and seeing those high Buy it Now prices.

EDIT: All I'm saying is that right now, you can get an ounce or less of gold for under spot on ebay. Granted, you have to buy above spot and wait the 60 days for your refund, but if you want the physical gold, it'll be in your hand in a week. That in and of itself throws any data into question, especially since this doesn't work for bulk purchases. No one's selling 400 oz bars, and the max rebate is $200, so you're better off buying 400 1 oz coins with the rebate (from 70 different accounts, since MS limits your rebates to six per account and $200 per transaction).

ANOTHER EDIT: it appears that silver is a different story; even with the discount/rebate silver is going well over spot at Ebay.

ever bought or sold anything on ebay? you can find the odd bargain here and there but overall it's the ultimate efficient market, unlike the crooked comex version that this pm price data scraper is designed to replace.

[DaveBrown42]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

ever bought or sold anything on ebay? you can find the odd bargain here and there but overall it's the ultimate efficient market, unlike the crooked comex version that this pm price data scraper is designed to replace.

I don't think you understand how many people are taking advantage of the live.com promotion. Today, an hour after the news hit about Circuit City declaring bankruptcy, I listed a $500 gift card for their store with a buy-it-now price of $475. That gift card sold in six minutes.

Here's a thread on a popular deal site that discusses the live.com promotion:

http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/hot-deals/838081/

That thread is over 800 pages long. Here's that same thread, but only listing the posts containing the word "gold":

http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/hot-...081?query=gold

Granted, some of those posts refer to "gold powerseller status" or some other such red herring, but there's quite a few people buying gold on ebay purely to get in on this.

[phirang]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

It's pretty damn obvious now: under current market conditions, if things continue as they are, gold will get gutted.

The only hope for gold is in gov intervention.

[metalman]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

It's pretty damn obvious now: under current market conditions, if things continue as they are, gold will get gutted.

The only hope for gold is in gov intervention.

this is precisely why itulipers own gold... in anticipation of the inevitable gov't intervention in deflation and the enthusiastic response it will receive from foreign investors in dollar denominated assets!

[Andreuccio]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

I don't think you understand how many people are taking advantage of the live.com promotion. Today, an hour after the news hit about Circuit City declaring bankruptcy, I listed a $500 gift card for their store with a buy-it-now price of $475. That gift card sold in six minutes.

Here's a thread on a popular deal site that discusses the live.com promotion:

http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/hot-deals/838081/

That thread is over 800 pages long. Here's that same thread, but only listing the posts containing the word "gold":

http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/hot-...081?query=gold

Granted, some of those posts refer to "gold powerseller status" or some other such red herring, but there's quite a few people buying gold on ebay purely to get in on this.

I don't buy it. It sounds like that promotion where they offered a free trip to Europe if you bought a vacuum cleaner. They sold a lot of vacuum cleaners, but ended up going bankrupt when they realized the trip cost them more than the vacuum.

Let me know when your rebate check arrives.

[bpr]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

I don't buy it. It sounds like that promotion where they offered a free trip to Europe if you bought a vacuum cleaner. They sold a lot of vacuum cleaners, but ended up going bankrupt when they realized the trip cost them more than the vacuum.

Let me know when your rebate check arrives.

You may be right, but it is definitely affecting the prices. Some sellers are advertising it along with instructions on their auction pages for eagles.

FREE SHIPPING & INSURANCE - $360 WITH LIVE.COM DISCOUNT

(from listing for 1/2 oz Panda)

[metalman]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

I don't think you understand how many people are taking advantage of the live.com promotion. Today, an hour after the news hit about Circuit City declaring bankruptcy, I listed a $500 gift card for their store with a buy-it-now price of $475. That gift card sold in six minutes.

Here's a thread on a popular deal site that discusses the live.com promotion:

http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/hot-deals/838081/

That thread is over 800 pages long. Here's that same thread, but only listing the posts containing the word "gold":

http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/hot-...081?query=gold

Granted, some of those posts refer to "gold powerseller status" or some other such red herring, but there's quite a few people buying gold on ebay purely to get in on this.

these 'too good to be true' deals don't last long... either the purveyor goes out of business or the deal has strings attached.

[DaveBrown42]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

these 'too good to be true' deals don't last long... either the purveyor goes out of business or the deal has strings attached.

The viability of the promotion for either the purveyor or the customer is irrelevent for our purposes here. What is relevent is whether or not the promotion is distorting gold prices on Ebay. My perception is "yes, it is", though we won't really know until the promotion ends (it's been going on since June at this point). My point in mentioning it is simply that I would distrust ebay as a data point for PM pricing.

[grizam303]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

these 'too good to be true' deals don't last long... either the purveyor goes out of business or the deal has strings attached.

Or maybe they're banking on a government bailout. I wouldn't underestimate moral hazard nowadays.

[metalman]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

The viability of the promotion for either the purveyor or the customer is irrelevent for our purposes here. What is relevent is whether or not the promotion is distorting gold prices on Ebay. My perception is "yes, it is", though we won't really know until the promotion ends (it's been going on since June at this point). My point in mentioning it is simply that I would distrust ebay as a data point for PM pricing.

how about we compare this ebay gold market to another live physical market?

1oz eagles today selling for $831.79 (live) vs $735 spot. note 4 - 6 weeks delivery. i'm hearing from friends that translates into 3 - 4 months. other live sites out there?

[photoncounter]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

I don't buy it. It sounds like that promotion where they offered a free trip to Europe if you bought a vacuum cleaner. They sold a lot of vacuum cleaners, but ended up going bankrupt when they realized the trip cost them more than the vacuum.

Let me know when your rebate check arrives.

I don't know about the gold deal, but I know a friend who got his 30% discount in the form of rebate on laptop. You have to find the item on live.com and follow the link to ebay to purchase it. The advertised rebate was directly credited to paypal account.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

My point in mentioning it is simply that I would distrust ebay as a data point for PM pricing.

That's fair. I think I wouldn't trust it even without the promotion.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Free Market PM Spot Price

Fortunately, for poor sods like me who are paid in the world's lousiest currency (Pounds Sterling), Gold can only ever be in a bull market. I bought a big chunk of Gold at $755 an ounce - since then its "down" $20 an ounce. But in Sterling (the currency I used to pay for the gold and in which I receive my salary), its up £22 an ounce!!!!

I expect the Sterling price to climb through the course of next year, even if the US Dollar price goes down.