GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

[FRED]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

Law of comparative advantage supposedly kicks in. The idea being if the Chinese can make useless trinkets cheaper, let them. We'll concentrate on higher value added items. There are then two problems with that scenario: your competitors eventually figure out how to make high value added items also and not every person in that kind of economy has the interest or ability to be a high value added worker, i.e computer designer or a hedge fund guy.

The idea that China exports cheap useless trinkets is a misnomer. They export most of the high tech equipment that is designed in the US and other countries.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

Right. That was my point. Twenty years ago, free trade proponents were sanguine about exporting low value industries like textiles and shoes overseas. After not too long, your outsourcers begin outclassing you.

[we_are_toast]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

The SUV craze was an unintended consequence of higher CAFE standards. Detroit stopped making large rear wheel drive sedans and station wagons. At that point there were only two alternatives to driving econonboxes; highly expensive mercedes and BMW sedans or trucks.

Around 1984 some first movers began driving Broncos' and Suburbans, first generation SUV's that really that really were trucks. Detroit then came to the realization that SUV's were a loophole in the CAFE standards so they starting adding car like luxuries to their fleet of trucks with eye popping margins. Those margins gave Detroit the ability to pay unsustainable labor contracts. The whole thing based on cheap energy.

Now, thirty some years after the introduction of CAFE standards we have a domestic auto industry still stuck in the 1960's.

Good point about GM becoming an arm of government tinkering. Obama owes the unions for his election and the last thing he is going to do watch a million UAW and related jobs disappear. (Not good if one wants a second term) Keeping GM around as a social experiment accomplishes several goals.

By the way, I happen to be in east Asia right now (Japan & Singapore). Despite news reports regarding euphoria around the world on the Obama win, there is an awful lot of nervousness at the leadership level in the region regarding rising American protectionist sentiment and continuing military/security guarantees.

It's nice to have a post from a visitor from the cube shaped planet Bizzaro, where everything is the opposite from planet earth. Black is white, up is down, inside is outside. CAFE standards from 20+years ago causes Americans of today to choose monster gas hog status symbols over fuel efficient cars.

[Jeff]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

Just like poor people getting loans they couldn't afford through government mandates caused the current financial crisis. Damn those poor people and their advocates!

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

I'm not sure what you gentlemen are getting at.

CAFE regulations caused Detroit to stop making big cars. Consumers (of all economic classes) still wanted big, V8 powered transportation. They gravitated to a market niche that wasn't affected by the CAFE rules.

Classic failure of government intervention. The government was trying to change behavior but the market found a loophole. How is this bizarre thinking?

[Chomsky]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

I'm not sure what you gentlemen are getting at.

CAFE regulations caused Detroit to stop making big cars. Consumers (of all economic classes) still wanted big, V8 powered transportation. They gravitated to a market niche that wasn't affected by the CAFE rules.

Classic failure of government intervention. The government was trying to change behavior but the market found a loophole. How is this bizarre thinking?

Also, import duties on cars is very much lower than on trucks. Domestically made SUVs, designated as trucks, therefore have a major advantage over their foreign counterparts, hence the fat margins Detroit has enjoyed on SUVs.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

Right.

The government was trying to change behavior (reduce fuel consumption) but they left several loopholes open creating a massive new market segment defeating the intent of CAFE standards. QED.

[we_are_toast]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

Right.

The government was trying to change behavior (reduce fuel consumption) but they left several loopholes open creating a massive new market segment defeating the intent of CAFE standards. QED.

Your implication that the CAFE standards are somehow responsible for our excessive consumption of gasoline is incorrect. The initial standards did raise the fleet MPG. The failure was in congress to not raise those standards to higher levels and plug the loopholes for the monster SUV. Appropriate government action at the right time would have lessened the problems we now have.

[rj1]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

Your implication that the CAFE standards are somehow responsible for our excessive consumption of gasoline is incorrect. The initial standards did raise the fleet MPG. The failure was in congress to not raise those standards to higher levels and plug the loopholes for the monster SUV. Appropriate government action at the right time would have lessened the problems we now have.

And the government did not do appropriate action at the right time because politicians of both parties got down on their knees, opened their mouths wide, and swallowed lobbyist money right down the throat.

Anyone that thinks the government should've just fixed the problem is incredibly naive on how democracy works. Politicians need money to get reelected. Big companies will give them money but only if the politicians will give them a guarantee first. How the f*ck do you think that bank bailout passed?

metalman:
good riddance. badly run companies should go out of business.

Please tell me where you live so I can pass on the address to the GM workers to go to once they become unemployed. You can explain your view to them then while they have a shotgun in their hands looking for blood.

Let's go over some basic numbers folks. General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler collectively employ 1 out of 14 Americans directly and indirectly. 1 out of 14. Who on here is dumb enough to stand up and say they think it's a good idea for even a quarter or a third of that number to lose their jobs and this country will not be affected?

I work for a major Chrysler supplier. Thankfully my work is not tied to Chrysler although I'm not naive to think it wouldn't affect me somehow.

I defer to Mr. de Lorenzo, one of the few people in this country that has their head screwed on right. If anyone has a better solution, I'm all ears.

After the smoke clears, it's time for America, Inc.

By Peter M. De Lorenzo


Detroit. By now it should be obvious to even the most casual observers that the domestic automobile industry is on the verge of total collapse. Already reeling from the gas spike earlier in the year and the subsequent decimation of the light truck and SUV markets, the national financial and credit crisis has conspired to cut the amount of survival time for two of the three domestic automobile makers from years to just months, leaving General Motors and the Cerberus-owned Chrysler LLC on the brink of bankruptcy.

And it has also finally become obvious to even the most jaded anti-Detroit zealots in Washington and around the country that a collapse of the domestic automobile industry would be a cataclysmic event with devastating and far-reaching consequences that would threaten to shake this country's economic future to its core.

The urgency of this looming economic disaster - which initially was just a sideshow compared to the national and international financial crisis - is now on the front burner for this country's decision makers, and is one of the prime topics in the presidential race too.

It is clear that GM is in direct talks with the White House about receiving an early injection of money - from either the $25 billion already promised to the Detroit 3 or the $700 billion financial institution bailout package - in order to ease the financial blow to employees and dealers as a result of its acquisition of Chrysler from Cerberus. And that agreement may in fact have already been made.

The alternative? There is no good alternative. If GM were able to acquire Chrysler (although the financial wherewithal for GM to do it completely on its own just isn't there) straight up, the immediate cessation of most of Chrysler's operations and the brutal dismissal of 90 percent of its employees - not to mention the utter devastation to thousands of dealers across the nation - would plunge this country toward economic disaster on top of an already deepening recession.

The point of no return.

Free-market theorizing aside, we have long since passed the point of no return in this matter. If this country allows one of its key manufacturing pillars to slip into insolvency, it would set-off a dark chain of events that would reach into every sector of the economy and would not only devastate the states where Detroit has its manufacturing and parts facilities, but it would affect every state of the union too.

There are still some out there who don't believe this "Detroit thing" will have anything to do with their lives or livelihoods, of course. It's hard for some people to understand that because Detroit and Michigan ("The Flyover State") are viewed as relics from an ancient country no one remembers anymore, even though 1 in 14 jobs in the U.S. are still either directly or indirectly dependent on the domestic automobile industry. I really don't know how else I could possibly present those figures in order to get through to people out there that they should care deeply about what's going on in Detroit and Washington right now, because it's real and it will affect you, no matter where you are, or how flush your circumstances are.

Even though I am absolutely convinced that the idea of GM acquiring Chrysler is fraught with opportunities for abject failure on a grand scale, the White House will make the decision that a managed dissolution of Chrysler over time under GM's stewardship would be preferable than an immediate corporate blow-up.

But let's move beyond that for a moment. Let's operate under the assumption that with government assistance GM does take over Chrysler. Now what? Critics are quick to point out that Detroit can't continue to do business as usual and that accountability and some measure of performance deliverables have to be built into the "strings" of any loan package. And I say fine to all of that, except I must point out the reality that it hasn't been "business as usual" here and that Detroit has been racing to revamp its product offerings for going on five years now (lead time is not a concept that people outside this business find easy to understand).

A wildly naïve "whatever" consumerist mindset.

But I am really much more concerned about the negative and wildly naïve attitude that has been allowed to fester in and around Washington and across the country of late, the attitude that suggests that our manufacturing base and this country's ability to make things somehow doesn't matter in this brave new consumer nation that the U.S. has become in the 21^st century.

It's the same attitude that suggests - if not outright promotes - the idea that we can exist in some alternative consumerist universe of our own creation, a Starbucks Nation of "whatever" consumers who don't really care where whatever it is we're coveting comes from as long as its here, now and c-h-e-a-p.

This is the same attitude that has left this country ill-prepared for the burgeoning realities of this global world we're living in. And this "whatever" posture that has become far too commonplace in our nation, and the idea that this will all workout somehow - because it always has - is not only beyond scary, it's just flat-out wrong.

America at a crossroads.

I've said this before and I will say it again: This nation is at a crossroads. Our idyllic, textbook, free-market notions and our "Aw, shucks, we just want you to play nice with us like we play nice with you" Jimmy Stewart-like attitude that we continue to try to foist off on jaded nation-state competitors that just don't care are simply obsolete in this new global economy we live in.

Other nations have taken advantage of Uncle Sam's quaint view of the world for years, to the point where they must privately refer to us as "Uncle Sap."
We've allowed other nations to come into this country virtually unimpeded, and showered them with lavish, long-term tax breaks and incentives for good measure. Yes, jobs were created, but now we're waking up to the fact that American-owned manufacturing strongholds are fewer in number because our manufacturing base has been slowly but surely eroded from within.

Just a few examples? We allowed Japanese automobile manufacturers to dump vehicles in this market - vehicles that carried none of our American workers' health care or pension overhead burdens of any kind - for years while the Japanese government did everything in their power to keep American made vehicles from being sold over there. We also watched as "Japan, Inc." willfully and consistently manipulated the yen in their homegrown automakers' favor - to the point that Toyota was making millions of dollars every quarter just on currency manipulation alone - while our own government shrugged their shoulders and mustered little or no protest, saying "Gee, we wish you guys wouldn't do that," or some such nonsense.

Where did all of this leave the Detroit automakers? The manufacturing powerhouse that forged this nation's middle class and once powered the "Arsenal of Democracy" in WWII? The companies that allowed millions of people to make a decent living, send kids to college, and allow communities big and small across this nation to thrive for the better part of 100 years?

Broke down and busted on the side of the road, that's where.

Make no mistake, Detroit was more than culpable for their predicament, that has already been well-documented by me and others ad nauseam. But trying to compete with Japanese vehicles that started out with a $3,000 cost advantage before they even hit the dealership lots while paying for health care and pension funding that grew exponentially with each passing model year was a debilitating, no-win game for Detroit. And now that game is well and truly over.

The time is now for "America, Inc."

After the smoke clears, the dust settles and the hand-wringing and political posturing stops over this Detroit bailout, this country will be faced with some difficult choices going forward.

Do we want to continue to compete in this brutally competitive global economy with hat in hand and shuffling feet, hoping countries treat us nice and with respect? Or do we wake-up, smell the coffee and realize that these countries are only in it for the money - our money - and they will do everything in their power to get their hands on it, even if it means turning us into a nation of consumer zombies with little left to stand on other than our revolving plastic.

If we want to shore-up this nation and we want to get this country back on track, then we're going to not only have to make some difficult sacrifices, we're going to have start playing tough in this new global marketplace. And that means that the gloves will have to come off in Washington. This country needs to start thinking in terms of "America, Inc." and that means first and foremost rebuilding our manufacturing base and supporting our American companies - no matter what sector they're competing in - because to not do so in this global economy borders on the criminal.

The reality about all of this is that countries from all over the globe love to do business here, and they love to do so for a reason. And that reason is because we don't ask them to sacrifice much to come over and set-up shop here. As a matter of fact, we make it real easy for them. Twenty-five years of tax break incentives? Sure, why the hell not! Free land? Come on down!

The bottom line is that this type of total economic acquiesence on the part of our government - at the national and local level - will have to change, and dramatically so too.

Don't agree with a "bailout" or "loan" for Detroit? Then what if every foreign auto manufacturer - whether they have plants here or not - had to pay anywhere from $250 to $1500 per vehicle sold (on a sliding scale) to do business here? (Because no matter how much they say that they've created jobs in the states they operate in and that they shouldn't be penalized for doing so, at the end of the day their profits return to their home countries, not here. And to pretend otherwise is to have your head in the sand.) And then what if that money went directly into a fund to help support American workers' pensions or an education fund for their families?

The idea that in this global economy our free-market policies will be accepted and embraced and that everyone will play nice with us because we want to play nice with them is simply absurd and woefully out of touch. America must change its ways if we are to survive as a global leader, economic and otherwise.

The bottom line in this discussion is that we have a multitude of problems in this country that will take time, sacrifice, hard work and collective effort to solve. And we're only going to be able to do that if we're unified as a nation, and we compete in the global marketplace as "America, Inc."

http://www.autoextremist.com/current/?currentPage=2

[Chris Coles]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

With all the greatest of respects it is disingenuous in the extreme to suggest that it is foreigners such as Japan that have caused your problems. Adam Smith, centuries ago, made the important statement that clears the path to the reality.

"It will hereinafter appear that all jobs are created in direct proportion to the amount of capital invested."

You caught the British disease: invest and stand back and do nothing but sit on the sidelines.

While all the time the Japanese, (for example), invested hand over fist, again and again into new products and processes, your own industry was starved of the investment.

I always cite as an example Canon. If you had had your ear to the ground you would have discovered that their photocopier showrooms, world wide had deliveries of a new model every few months. Month on year on decades. Hundreds of them.

You have not even started to rebuild your railways from the first lines placed down, when? More than a century ago. As for separating the railways from the road system..... give me strength, we did that back in the 19th Century. You still haul rail freight at 30 MPH for goodness sake. A fast train runs at, what 65 MPH. Over here we run them near 200 MPH. with Freight at near 100 MPH.

Your problem is lack of investment and again; lack of investment and again; lack of investment. You are supposed to be the greatest capitalist nation on the planet and yet your savings institutions have forgotten what the word investment means.

Trying to pull the old 1930's National Socialism bit about blaming one social group or other or the rest of the world for your problems is not going to work. You are going to have to face up to the truth. It is all of your own making. You did it to yourselves.

[rj1]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

With all the greatest of respects it is disingenuous in the extreme to suggest that it is foreigners such as Japan that have caused your problems. Adam Smith, centuries ago, made the important statement that clears the path to the reality.

Random bullsh*t.

No person from a country with Gordon Brown as its leader is allowed to say my country is a miserable failure.


This is all I'm asking. Go to Japan, stick a gun to their head (metaphorically), and say "if your companies want free access to our markets, our companies better be allowed to have free access to your markets." It's that simple. Don't argue that Japanese-made (as in made in Japan) cars are superior. All the Japanese carmakers build poor quality cars in the Japan market because they pay off the government to allow them to have the market to themselves. Not to mention that they've pushed down the value of the currency for a long time just like the Chinese in order to prop up their manufacturing. The Japanese are the National Socialists here.

I've worked with the Japanese a ton and they can be cantankerous arguing and negotiating. But once they know they can't defend their position anymore, they'll back down, lower their heads, and quietly admit defeat.

It's time for the United States to have a policy of reciprocity. We'll treat you how you treat us.

[Wild Style]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

Just like poor people getting loans they couldn't afford through government mandates caused the current financial crisis. Damn those poor people and their advocates!

I thought there were more alt a loans taken out by middle class folk than the poor, no?

[Chris Coles]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

No person from a country with Gordon Brown as its leader is allowed to say my country is a miserable failure.


This is all I'm asking. Go to Japan, stick a gun to their head (metaphorically), and say "if your companies want free access to our markets, our companies better be allowed to have free access to your markets." It's that simple. Don't argue that Japanese-made (as in made in Japan) cars are superior. All the Japanese carmakers build poor quality cars in the Japan market because they pay off the government to allow them to have the market to themselves. Not to mention that they've pushed down the value of the currency for a long time just like the Chinese in order to prop up their manufacturing. The Japanese are the National Socialists here.

I've worked with the Japanese a ton and they can be cantankerous arguing and negotiating. But once they know they can't defend their position anymore, they'll back down, lower their heads, and quietly admit defeat.

It's time for the United States to have a policy of reciprocity. We'll treat you how you treat us.

And how long before the metaphorical becomes reality? You have to stand on your own two feet and address those markets you have access to; your own. The buck stops at the lack of investment, not failure. The problem is lack of investment not failure.

And I do suggest that you go read some European history, you will find people were using the same arguments you use today. That time they cost millions of lives in the end. That is what I am trying to get across. The metaphorical can so easily become reality.

Neither am I saying the US is a failure. It is simply well behind the curve with investment across a wide range of infrastructure and industry. If the argument is that it is unprofitable to so invest, then the failure is not creating conditions that promote the necessary investment. That does not make the people on the ground failures, nor the nation either. It simply shows the need to change direction.... peacefully.

[GRG55]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

...You have not even started to rebuild your railways from the first lines placed down, when? More than a century ago. As for separating the railways from the road system..... give me strength, we did that back in the 19th Century. You still haul rail freight at 30 MPH for goodness sake. A fast train runs at, what 65 MPH. Over here we run them near 200 MPH. with Freight at near 100 MPH...

Your problem is lack of investment and again; lack of investment and again; lack of investment...

Sorry, but I burst out laughing when I read this. No offense Chris, but the image of what's left of those lead-painted Chinese toys and contaminated milk powder leaving Long Beach and being freighted across America at...100 mph...was too funny...

Saving America by getting trinkets to WalMart even faster than before is hilarious.

[Chris Coles]

Re: GM stock trade halted, close to bankruptcy

Sorry, but I burst out laughing when I read this. No offense Chris, but the image of what's left of those lead-painted Chinese toys and contaminated milk powder leaving Long Beach and being freighted across America at...100 mph...was too funny...

Saving America by getting trinkets to WalMart even faster than before is hilarious.

I agree, made me laugh too when you put it like that GRG.

So now we put the blame on Walmart? We must hope for a new JibJab cartoon. Ideas anyone?