10 market pros take on 2009

[tsetsefly]

I always wonder where CNN gets these market pro's from?

But most of them seem to grasp exactly what is going on. You even have on saying the dow will be back to 13,500 next year...

I would of liked to read the whole interviews instead of a quote to actually see their line of reasoning.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/...mag/index.html

[D-Mack]

Re: 10 market pros take on 2009

I'm surprised the Moody's guy gave a 3 on optism

She asked them to rank their optimism about 2009 from 1 to 10, with 1 being "The apocalypse is at hand!" and 10 being "What, me worry?"

Mark Zandi
Chief economist, Moody's Economy.com

Optimism score: 3

"The fallout from the current financial panic will weigh heavily on the economy through most of next year. The unprecedented policy response to the panic ensures that 2009 won't be even more difficult."

Prediction: The unemployment rate will peak near 8% by year-end.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: 10 market pros take on 2009

I recognized only 2 names with good reputation:

Jeremy Grantham
Co-founder, investment firm GMO
Optimism score: 5.5
"When the S&P 500 drops to around the 900-to-1000 range, as it has, that to me represents a very nice time to get into equities."
Prediction: He declines to make a specific prediction about the U.S. market.

Barry Ritholtz
CEO, research firm Fusion IQ
Optimism score: 9
"Sentiment is wildly, wildly negative right now, just horrific. And that's exactly the time when you have to just hold your nose, take the other side of the trade and buy."
Prediction: The S&P may gain up to 30% from its October 2008 lows.

The other guys, like the Moody person are likely trend followers rather than trend setters. When the stock market was going up in 2007, I bet they were not thinking about recession, when the oil was going up they were not thinking about deflation and so for. Someone with time on his/her hands can check for previous claims of these "pros".

[D-Mack]

Re: 10 market pros take on 2009

I recognized only 2 names with good reputation:

The other guys, like the Moody person are likely trend followers rather than trend setters. When the stock market was going up in 2007, I bet they were not thinking about recession, when the oil was going up they were not thinking about deflation and so for. Someone with time on his/her hands can check for previous claims of these "pros".

I took one article from 2006, and I had the impression he thought the problem was there were not enough people to support the pyramid.

What's the cause of what looks to be a market in disintegration?

ZANDI: A couple of things. One is a collapse in housing affordability. Because of the surging housing values over the past five, 10 years, combined with higher interest rates, it's just crushed the ability of first time homebuyers to get into this market. So that's one reason.

And the other is the flipper. Short-term investors infected (ph) many of these second and vacation home markets. And now they're running for the proverbial door. So that's weighing heavily on the market as well.

WILLIS: And what about interest rates here? You say in your report that that's one of the major causes of the problems. The Fed now on notice that housing markets are having their troubles. Can they bail us out here?

ZANDI: I don't think that they will. I think interest rates are going to remain roughly stable. They have come down a little bit over the last few weeks, but broadly speaking I think this is what we should expect to see over the next couple of years. And to some degree, the Federal Reserve has worked to slow growth by raising interest rates, and at the cost of weaker housing markets. And some of this is by design.


...


Is there any silver lining in your forecast?

ZANDI: Well, you know, I think one silver lining is that ultimately, with the weakening in pricing, affordability will return. And the first time home buyer can then get back into the market. Moreover, I think it's absolutely necessary that the froth in the market is wrung out of it, that the flippers leave, because that does harm to the market in the longer run.

So these excesses that have built up are getting worked off. And ultimately, that -- that's a good thing.

http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0610/07/oh.01.html

[grizam303]

Re: 10 market pros take on 2009

CNN lost major credibility with me yesterday on their article about buying gold. The meat of the article was that gold is an unwise investment based on a technical analysis of its price over the past year or so. Granted I didn't expect the almost-conspiracy-theories that I can find here (which I <3), but I expected a little more than just explaining its price movement.

That being said, it was the nail in the coffin that convinced me that CNN is propaganda/sensational media. Almost everyday, I see an article about how we've hit the bottom, or the bottom is close, and all sorts of articles that appear to be written with an aim at raising consumer sentiment.

It's just difficult to figure out who you can trust.

[bradzepfan]

Re: 10 market pros take on 2009

DING DING DING!! Give this man a cigar!!!!

[zoog]

Re: 10 market pros take on 2009

CNN lost major credibility with me yesterday on their article about buying gold. The meat of the article was that gold is an unwise investment based on a technical analysis of its price over the past year or so. Granted I didn't expect the almost-conspiracy-theories that I can find here (which I <3), but I expected a little more than just explaining its price movement.

That being said, it was the nail in the coffin that convinced me that CNN is propaganda/sensational media. Almost everyday, I see an article about how we've hit the bottom, or the bottom is close, and all sorts of articles that appear to be written with an aim at raising consumer sentiment.

It's just difficult to figure out who you can trust.

Don't trust the zombie financial media

Zombie Financial Media
• No memory: Contradictions between reports are not recalled or noted, previous reports are forgotten shortly after release
• No comprehension: Each event occurs in isolation, no two events are related to a root cause, such as Risk Pollution
• No risk avoidance: Since no patterns are noted, every event is a "surprise"

[santafe2]

Re: 10 market pros take on 2009

It's just difficult to figure out who you can trust.

Trust yourself. Keep your money in a CD until you do.