Financial Summit Nov 15th

[derelict54]

I just wanted to start this thread to hear what other Itulipers are thinking will happen at this Financial Summit on Nov 15th and/or when Bretton Woods II is renegotiated. There are a lot smarter minds on this website then I, so I would like to see some discussion from everyone including the elite. I just find it interesting that Brazil, Russia, India and China will meet the day before to get a unified position. Europe is pissed and we still have inept Bush in the White House. Will this meeting just be preliminary brainstorming? Will the rest of the world wait for Barrack to take office before a new system is hatched? What will the new system look like? PM backed currency? dollar pegged to yuan? Do governments simply forgive debts to eachother? Due to government actions making such large swings in the marketplace I think it prudent to discuss the most likely outcomes and hedge my bets.

Impending financial summit to rank high on new treasury chief's agenda

Posted on November 4, 2008 at 11:13 AM Filed under: Crisis On Wall Street | Deal International | Election 2008 Tagged: G-20 , larry summers , timothy geithner

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Leaders around the world are making plans, or making plans to make plans, for the G-20 summit on the financial crisis in Washington on Nov. 15. The finance ministers of Brazil, Russia, India and China will meet in Sao Paolo on the eve of the gathering to hammer out a unified position. The European Union chiefs will do the same at a summit of their own on Nov. 7, according to The Washington Post (picked up here by the Mail Tribune of Oregon). Here in America, of course, we're kind of preoccupied with an election. But once we've chosen a new president, and the new president has chosen a new treasury secretary -- which given the circumstances he needs to do quickly -- that treasury secretary will find this meeting a very important item on his or her agenda. The Europeans, who pushed hard for the meeting, want to see big changes in international financial regulation. Many of them blame the U.S. for the financial meltdown and figure that in the long-running argument over how freewheeling finance should be, the balance has tipped in their favor. The U.S. position will be represented by a lame-duck administration and -- well, who, exactly? And how effective will the secretary-designate be at influencing the meeting? According to Bill McConnell, writing on Dealscape Monday, if the polls are right and Obama wins, the front runners are New York Fed Chairman Timothy Geithner and former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. Both are well known to the multilateral financial crowd. Geithner has of course been in the thick of the financial bailouts here and was the treasury undersecretary for international affairs from 1998 to 2001. Like Summers (his boss for much of that time) he played a big role in the last international financial crisis. Back then, of course, the U.S. was seen, and mainly saw itself, as the provider of solutions. The dynamic is bound to be a little different when much of the world sees the U.S., fairly or not, as the main source of the problem. - Kenneth Klee

[krakknisse]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

Grab a can of Crisco before they run out. Stretch out and make sure you can grab your ankles without too much discomfort. It is said only half in jest.

[phirang]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

from my well-placed sources, not much will come of this.

[derelict54]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

Thanks Phirang, much obliged, we need people on the inside. I was just about to short the dow to 6k. Guess we will wait to see what happens, but for whatever reason my stomach tells me what is discussed behind those closed doors will leak out in the press of other countries and could scare the US markets shltless, maybe enough for the circuit breakers to hit on Mon the 17th. I may throw some money on the long shot I am right.

Anyhow, the Plan is to keep the broken system until we hit bottom and stablize, then address it, or until riots and wars break out. Either way it seems krakknisse is right, we voted a black man in the white house to take it San Quentin style. God please look after Mr. Obama's cornholio

[walenk]

DC kabuki

I did a modest amount of DC "negotiation" amongst many parties. In first round, everyone got up and surfaced their issues, in the spirit of 'Before we get to an agreement, you'all are going to address my issue'. I envisioned it like that, a set up session for the next round in Sarkozyland. :cool:

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

None of them have a clue as to how we got here!
None of them have a clue as to where we are!
None of them have a clue as to what to do!
The old "rabbit caught in the spotlight" simile comes to mind!

So what the hell are they going to conclude? Just another talk fest to attend...nice hotels...a few spas....some really good dinners and a lot of free grog! What's the difference between this crowd and the AIG execs?

[D-Mack]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=10841

http://www.eu2008.fr/PFUE/lang/en/ac..._le_7_novembre


...


3. The international summit on 15 November 2008 must pave the way for reform of the international financial system. Europe must play a major part in it in three respects: common principles upon which to build a new international financial system; a working method to deliver real decisions swiftly; a full set of responses, some of which should be adopted without delay.

4. Those principles are as follows:

(i) No financial institution, no market segment and no jurisdiction must escape proportionate and adequate regulation or at least oversight.

- All financial players of systemic importance, such as rating agencies or geared funds, will accordingly have to be subject to rules or at least to oversight, wherever they operate. Means of actually putting that principle into practice will have to be introduced by national authorities, if appropriate under international financial institutions' supervision.

- Every step will be taken, nationally and internationally, to protect the stability of the international financial system from uncooperative centres.

- In more general terms, the rules applicable will have to be so designed as to create common standards between financial centres in ways not detrimental to international financial stability.

(ii) The new international financial system must be based on principles of accountability and transparency.

- Transparency of financial transactions must be ensured by means of a more comprehensive information system, which no longer omits vast swathes of financial activity from auditable, certifiable accounts.

- Arrangements conducive to excessive risk taking must be overhauled, particularly debt securitisation procedures and pay policy.

- Both prudential and accounting standards applicable to financial institutions will have to be revised to ensure that they do not contribute to creating speculative bubbles in periods of growth and make the crisis worse at times of economic downturn.

- Standards bodies, in particular in the area of accountancy, will have to be reformed to allow a genuine dialogue with all the parties concerned, in particular prudential authorities.

(iii) The new international financial system must allow risks to be assessed so as to prevent crises.

- The large international financial groups will have to be monitored in a coordinated manner as between the different national authorities concerned, by the setting up of colleges of supervisors.

- An early warning system must be established to identify upstream increases in risks or the formation of bubbles in the valuation of different economic assets.

- More generally, multilateral surveillance will have to be reformed in order to prevent and eliminate world imbalances.

(iv) Give the IMF a central role in a more efficient financial architecture

- The task of preventing financial crises will fall to the IMF, which enjoys the legitimacy and universality necessary to become increasingly the pivot of a renewed international system. To that end, its role will be better coordinated with that of the Financial Stability Forum.

- The IMF's intervention tools will have to be modernised to enable it to intervene preventively and its resources will have to be increased to enable it to give effective assistance to countries affected by the crisis.

5. In application of these principles, five specific approaches could be adopted on 15 November:

- submit rating agencies to registration, surveillance and rules of governance;

- adopt the principle of convergence of accounting standards and review the application in the financial sector of the fair value rule in order to improve its consistency with prudential rules;

- decide that no market segment, no territory, and no financial institution should escape proportionate and adequate regulation or at least oversight;

- establish codes of conduct to avoid excessive risk-taking in the financial sector, including in the area of systems of remuneration. Supervisors will have to take them into account in evaluating the risk profile of financial institutions;

- give the IMF the initial responsibility, together with the FSF, of recommending the measures needed to restore confidence and stability. The IMF must be given the necessary resources and appropriate instruments to support countries in difficulty, and must fully exercise its role of macroeconomic surveillance.

6. The Washington summit must be the occasion to integrate this reform of the international financial system into the larger series of 21st century challenges which we remain determined to tackle : food security, the fight against poverty and climate change, and the promotion of free trade through the rapid conclusion of the Doha Round.

7. We hope that the Washington summit can establish a method of working which enables regular and rapid progress to be made towards reform of the international financial system.

A period of 100 days starting on 15 November should be used for drawing up measures to implement the principles that have just been restated. At the end of that period, we will propose holding a new summit with three items on its agenda:

- a report on the implementation of the initial measures adopted on 15 November;

- a set of new decisions taken to implement the principles adopted on 15 November to improve the regulation of the financial system;

- a set of proposals on the international economic architecture to enable current and future macro economic challenges to be met.

The December European Council will be the occasion to take the necessary measures at the end of this first stage in a reform that Europe supports and earnestly hopes for.

8. The unity of the European Union must also be reflected in effective consultation on each Member State's economic policy response to the present situation. The work carried out over the last few weeks in together establishing a set of principles and a list of possible solutions in the financial sphere can serve as a model for improving economic consultation. We would ask the ECOFIN Council and the Commission to submit to the next European Council meeting a European strategy, building on the Lisbon Strategy and the Stability and Growth Pact and comprising principles for action and specific measures to cope with the economic slowdown and maintain growth and employment.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

D-Mack

Thanks for the post and please don't think I'm in anyway negative about it.

However I'd have thought it illustrates the point. "Blah blah blah....we got to regulate...create even more people making nothing!"

"It was ALL "their" fault...not ours"

[phirang]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

apparently, a sense of urgency has returned. IMF may get massive financing, compliments of the GCC:

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5...2_0SUGmfYnpEpg

[D-Mack]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

apparently, a sense of urgency has returned. IMF may get massive financing, compliments of the GCC:

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5...2_0SUGmfYnpEpg

The first barons of banking

Rupert Wright
Last Updated: November 06. 2008 7:11PM UAE / November 6. 2008 3:11PM GMT


Nobleman: Baron David de Rothschild, the head of the Rothschild bank. The Rothschilds have helped the British government since financing Wellington's army to fight the French in 1815. Galen Clarke / The National

Among the captains of industry, spin doctors and financial advisers accompanying British prime minister Gordon Brown on his fund-raising visit to the Gulf this week, one name was surprisingly absent. This may have had something to do with the fact that the tour kicked off in Saudi Arabia. But by the time the group reached Qatar, Baron David de Rothschild was there, too, and he was also in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

....

Does he expect governments to play a larger role in financial markets in future? “There is a huge difference in the Soviet-style mentality that occurred in Paris in 1982, and the extraordinary achievements that politicians, led by Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy, have made to save the global banking system from systemic collapse,” he says. “They moved to protect the world from billions of unemployment. In five to 10 years those banking stakes will be sold – and sold at a profit.”

Baron Rothschild shares most people’s view that there is a new world order. In his opinion, banks will deleverage and there will be a new form of global governance. “But you have to be careful of caricatures: we don’t want to go from ultra liberalism to protectionism.”


...

http://www.thenational.ae/article/20...167536298/1005

[rj1]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

from my well-placed sources, not much will come of this.

If Obama isn't going to be a part of it (which it's looking like it won't), none of the other countries are going to agree to anything set by a lame duck.

[derelict54]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

Thank you D-Mack that is what I was looking for. Thanks Phirang as well. These are very interesting links you have sent. The world is controlled by a smaller number of private interests by fewer families than most are willing to admit. But these families must keep the masses happy to a sense to keep their corporations moving. I believe now that global corporations are playing bully more so than individual governments you are starting to see these corporate giants outgrow the old system, and I believe we may start to see the first of any signficant or shall we say impowered global regulation board. I also believe the only true way for the securitization market and/or covered bonds to be successful in the years to come will have to include some sort of international rating agency. I have previously posted that I believe the best way to a true rating agency should not be anything short of a non-profit agency, of which members would be of non-disclosed CFA's and others of high caliber financial literates, donating time (much like lawyers do pro-bono work) to rate these derivates and debt instruments for the investors of the world to have transparency. But without covered bonds or the securitiztion market the world is at a standtill........and not just us, but everyone!....And some of the most wealthy families are in banking so I do see that they will try and keep the rest indebted somehow. They had a good thing oging for a while, just let WAMU, Lehman, and Wachovia sell crap loans, that noone in the industry approved of, but turned a deaf ear too. After all, they with Moodys and S&P made a lot of this possible. A few screwed the system, because all banks are somewhat interconnected, it was the greed of some banks and some for-profit rating agencies that screwed the system. But there will always be demand and marketplace for high yieliding debt, risk = reward. Its just that moodys and the like said risk = AAA libor + our commission.

But without securitiztion no big mergers of global conglomerates of this global economy can happen. I think it is important to keep an ear to the ground to see what type of regualtions and or proposals for the new world order might consist of. Because when this new Bretton Woods II and or New World Order is renegotiated it will overcome and offset many ideas and speculations any of us belonging to I-tulip have about "what should happen" to the markets "Ka-poom theory or what have you" As we have seen in the Bear Market in the past few months, the market is created and destroyed by government intervention. The short ban, the non bailout of Lehman, the internization of Freddie and Fannie, all have bigger implimications on our portfoilios than what we "deem should happen" Because I got killed on a few positions when Uncle Sam stepped in.

In all fairness I think it wise to spend some of our time on scenarios of government intervention that may happen vs. the impeding doom of the US "that should happen" What I mean is that the rest of the world cannot go on without us, there is not decoupling (or not yet) and we have brought many other nations great wealth (at the expense of our own citizens at times) with trade agreements etc bent to serve the ultrawealthy private interests. Plus do not forget our military presence. That's why I think we may have bargaining tools in all of this to avoid hyerinflation. Therefor I am somewhat optimistic with Obama being able to surround himself with the right people that can teach him and understand our bargaining chips (military, economic leadership etc.) But it will most likely have to be a creation of a global regulation board, and a new rating agency that gets foreign investors back to confidence. But the Saudis the Chinese etc still depend on us one way or another, so while we may see a deliberate weakening of the dollar, I do not think that hyperinflation will insue. The new Bretton Woods II will create some of the most market inefficiencies ever seen since the last one was negotiated and that is where I want to capitalize, that with your help is what I want to solve. Are carbon controls negotiated to creat EJ's new clean energy industry? Does industrialization reflourish in the US in the short term and reflourish in Asia and Africa. Does the USA become a dinosaur much like Western Europe, or will it become a powerhouse of FIRE industry for the rest of the world feeding the rest of the world its debt securities, etc once again. Will London financials arise once more. The world is a big place and to bring it all up to post industrializtion invloves a lot of contracts of debt, insurance, and land rights. Although the US must be more balanced in our economy, I still think we will play large internationally in the economies of the world in negotiations of contracts.

I think I am going to pick up some GM on pink slips and hope that Obama and bailout and regulation can push Detroit to finally become efficent.

Or does the rest of the world push us out, decouple? China can get their soybeans from Brazil, Oil from Russia, tech from india, commodities from Australia, sell trinkets to Europe, and we get hyperinflation? Does the new Bretton Woods adjust oil prices to a basket of currency? (yuan, dollar, euro) same with other commodities? Does new Bretton Woods have a PM based backing (long PMs)? Does the new Bretton Woods forgive debts between nations (reduce fears of default, carry trades etc.) Does China Russia and others forgive $50 billion of debt for every foreign military base we close? Who knows, but like others thoughts on these topics.

Or of course maybe I am just a moron thinking and drinking too much, Cheers to ye'all

[VIT]

Re: Financial Summit Nov 15th

Maybe US/Europe and others are not beaten very hard yet.
If you remember last WTO round failed. If nothing positive will happen we might get trade wars ahead.