For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

[Mega]

...recover?

Am getting pissed now, yesterday i thought we were on to something............& today it crashed back.

For F*cks sake!!!!
Mike

[grapejelly]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

I bought some gold coins recently from a local place that I frequented over the years. And they had "nothing". They made a few accommodations for me as a regular...weird stuff like old gold Pesos and 1/4 krugs, stuff that had no numismatic value, but there was basically nothing to buy.

The owner said it was like that and had been for the last month or two. I am going to try to buy some more. It is kinda fun getting this weird stuff but I'm not doing any sizable purchasing. If I were, I'd be SOOL.

(They sell numismatics primarily and those are available for purchase but at huge markups. I'm not into them things although I did buy some a year or so ago and glad I did.)

I paid something over spot, something fair all things considered.

Just sit tight

[tombat1913]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

...recover?

Am getting pissed now, yesterday i thought we were on to something............& today it crashed back.

For F*cks sake!!!!
Mike

Now you be a good boy and maybe Santa will bring you hyperinflation for Christmas.

[rabot10]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

...recover?

Am getting pissed now, yesterday i thought we were on to something............& today it crashed back.

For F*cks sake!!!!
Mike

Mike i think it will be sometime before we see a real rise in Gold or Silver. After the KA - could be sometime after next year IMHO

your friend
rick

[ggirod]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

Patience, young grasshopper. I am reminded of a trip to Boston last month. Whenever I go there I take the T everywhere so this time, for cheap thrills, it seemed to make sense to catch it at the airport and continue from there. Holding the limit of carry-on baggage I was top-heavy to say the least. Near the beginning of the route into town I saw the car ahead turn what must have been 30-40 degrees to the right, return to center, and go 30-40 degrees the other way. It was then that a metaphor came to mind. I thought, this must be what it is like to be in a "slow motion trainwreck". Shortly thereafter my metaphorical reverie was broken by landing on my butt with my bags beside me. Though I did not observe any particularly strong reactions on the part of the other passengers, I was quite sure that they noted the decrepit white head not quite passing muster. Humility always seems to provide me a tutor when I need to learn its lessons.

I fear you will find gold recovering soon enough. EJ has already said he does not know when Poom will come, and I think he is right. To parallel the Bible*, there will be Pooms and rumors of Pooms before the real one comes. Unfortunately, just as the Bible does not get very specific as to timing, neither are the days of Poom known.

I, for one, am in no rush to collect my life insurance even though it is definitely more profitable to collect earlier. Instead, I am more than happy to sit on the policy and maybe even pay some more in just to say that the fateful day is not today and maybe not even tomorrow.

I hope that neither you with your gold nor I with my silver have to cash in the insurance because, while we might not be affected as much when we do, we will be surrounded by widespread suffering that, by then, no amount of money will cure.


*King James Bible
And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.

[phirang]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

If you "make money" on your gold, trust me, you won't be celebrating.

$1000/oz+ Au => serious economic pain and social displacement.

i still own some, but be careful what you wish for...

[hayekvindicated]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

I just bought a large amount of physical and basically don't care if the US Dollar price goes nowhere for another two years - my physical gold is a pound short. My previous pound short was Japanese Yen but with BOJ trying to drive it down so often, I want something that is less prone to manipulation.

Mike, if you ask me, even if gold were to skyrocket, you've got the wrong temperament/approach to profit from it. why? because when it starts to go up, you will get so wound up in the emotion of seeing it go up FINALLY that you will forget that its just another cycle and you also need to GET OUT at some point. Whilst paper currencies are fundamentally flawed, I do not believe that gold will replace them entirely. Some currencies will be toast - Sterling, Euro and eventually the US Dollar will go down the route, and in the distant future the Yen could too because of Japan's massive internal debts. But you will have the Yuan and other currencies that will do well.

My gold is like cash - I don't want my cash in sterling, so I have a chunk in physical gold in Switzerland. But I am not waiting for my gold to multiply fifty fold like a penny share. You own gold as an insurance policy and to stay liquid. Gold should never be seen as anything other than a substitute for paper currency. It cannot make you rich the way some lucky stock investments could. And in commodities, there are far better options in terms of value today - just look at the smashed up prices of so many industrial metals and many agricultural commodities. There are ways of profiting from them that could turn out to be better plays than gold.

And as Phirang says, gold may go to $10,000 an ounce, but you will also probably pay $100 for a quart of milk (in the UK probably £200 for a pint). That's not getting "rich" now is it?

[phirang]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

platinum is hot under parity with gold...

[trex]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

platinum is hot under parity with gold...

It's hard for gold to move with the dollar getting stronger. And its hard for the dollar to weaken when our interest rates are in the tank and everyone but Japan will be lowering their rates over the next few months (maybe weeks). Gold is hitting highs in other currencies but not ours yet.

Set it and forget it. While I agree it's a currency, it's also a sleep aid

[idianov]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

The basis (GOFO) has been falling for the last two weeks. The spot price is not responding to the short drive by the funds and small specs in the paper market because of physical metal demand in the spot market. The commercial traders have the smallest net short while the small specs have the smallest net long position in years. Sit tight, Mike!

Ci081105190845.jpg

GOFO-----------1m------------------------------------------------12m:

Ci081105191026.jpg

Ci081105191855.jpg

image004.gif

[Adeptus]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

...recover?

Am getting pissed now, yesterday i thought we were on to something............& today it crashed back.

For F*cks sake!!!!
Mike

Answer: ~November 28th, 2008. :-D

My source: http://www.minyanville.com/articles/.../index/a/19867

Good luck!
Adeptus

[BlackVoid]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

Jim Sinclair is saying the same thing and encourages people to take physical delivery of the "Crimex" contract.

http://216.157.72.247/index.php/2008...mex-warehouse/

[hugh_lawson]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

I have been reading Robert Prechter's book Conquer the Crash, written in 2002 and predicting a deflationary collapse in the near future. In the context of the book, that meant 2003-2004 or so. He also covers all the scenarios written about by EJ, including a crash of the dollar and a bailout of the banks by the Fed. He concludes that the bailouts are politically unfeasible and that dollars will be too valuable to hold on to for their value to crash. At the same time he admits the possibility and says to watch for a long downtrend and a price spike on gold above $400 an ounce to confirm that he was wrong about deflation.

So obviously he was wrong about deflation then, but is still playing the same note now. At least his website is saying you should hold a small position in gold as insurance against a collapse.

Other things he says include a warning against bonds except the very short term treasury sort. All in all, his predictions are only a hair away from those EJ makes, but with very different conclusions. Kind of confirms chaos theory in a way.

But the reason for this post, now that I think about it, was more to bring up the idea, yet again, that gold prices are being manipulated. That is not a new idea here, but it is one that EJ has poo-pooed on more than one occasion. The evidence of price manipulation has gotten so such stronger lately, however, that I have become convinced the feds are squashing the price like there is no tomorrow.

I would love to see EJ re-address the question now, including answering questions: 1. Is it happening and how is it done? 2. What to watch for to know when the price has finally started to move? 3.How has the government supressed the price of oil during the past two election cycles? 4. Where he thinks we stand in the ka cycle now?(why the pause without the poom?)5.Is it a good idea to trade the waves of the gold rise using a good broker?

I know a newsletter/blog needs to be careful not to morph into too specific investment recommendations for legal reasons, but I think everyone would love to know more about how EJ is adjusting his own portfolio, what he thinks his next move will be, and what signals he is waiting for in what markets to make his moves.

My girlfriend, for example, has no options in her retirement fund but the standard 10-15 seen in most corporate 401K's. While cash has been a great choice for the past year, I wonder what she can do to prepare for the poom. I have her 20% in a EuroPacific fund in hopes that it might serve as a hedge of the dollar drop, especially since I expect the Pacific countries to turn around quicker than the US (and Europe). At the same time I have the nagging suspicion that I am way early on that and EuroPacific stocks seem to be moving in lockstep with US stocks still. Anyone got any feel for de-linking of the various stock markets around the world?

[*T*]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

Am getting pissed now, yesterday i thought we were on to something............& today it crashed back.

Whenever I have lost money - in trading, investing or poker - it has been due to acting out of boredom. Almost without exception. I still haven't mastered myself there.

Having said that the 100d ma is below the 200d ma and it has just tested a long-term trendline from below:

So I have been considering selling a little physical and buying oil producers.

Either way, the purchasing power of gold is going up.

[GRG55]

Re: For the Love of GOD, When Oh WHEN will GOLD....

...recover?

Am getting pissed now, yesterday i thought we were on to something............& today it crashed back.

For F*cks sake!!!!
Mike

Start measuring it in British Pounds [the currency I presume most of your living expenses in Liverpool have to be paid in]. It'll make you feel better. Especially after today's BoE interest rate cut...