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  • Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

    several stores have recently gone out of business in my area and there are rumors of many more about to turn turtle. if you are in the retail biz...

    This holiday season, I have an important warning for every small company that sells to large corporations, especially big retailers.


    Carefully watch how much they owe you, and do everything possible to collect before December 24. Why? Because I'm afraid the last week of this year will see a number of bankruptcies, even of companies that are household names.


    I hate writing a column like this. After all, like most entrepreneurs, I'm an optimist. And I know that when people are fearful, the economy worsens. But my responsibility is to you – my small business reader. And if you sell to a company that goes bankrupt – or if your customers sell to companies that go bankrupt – you could be left in a dire situation.


    I'm not alone in worrying about the health of some major companies. Over dinner, a friend told me the large law firm she works for sent a memo with a list of 30 large companies they considered to be risky, warning the attorneys to carefully monitor their billings to those clients. She was shocked at the names on the list – many were stores where she shopped.
    In fact, insurance companies that provide "trade credit insurance" are also nervous. This is insurance that large suppliers take out to make sure they'll get paid if something, such as bankruptcy, happens to their customers. These insurance companies are looking at the economic climate, and reducing or eliminating insurance on some companies' receivables.
    "Business bankruptcies continued a relentless upward pace in the first quarter of 2008, and data suggests that the trend could increase even further as the year progresses…" That was the conclusion of Euler Hermes ACI, the largest provider of trade credit insurance in the U.S., earlier in the year. The recent financial turmoil has made it even more likely there'll be a rash of business bankruptcies.
    why inflationary? thin rates of change. of the supply of stuff goes away faster than the consumers and their income, you get a 1970s stagflation.

  • #2
    Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

    another indicator:

    http://boombustblog.com/index.php?op...html&Itemid=92


    If necessary, reread the section above and think of:
    • OPEC's curtailing of oil production to raise prices;
    • the meteoric drop and potential retracement of oil prices;
    • the concerted global helicopter ride used to shower money all over the place;
    • the amount of regulation about to come down the pike as a result of banks and insurers accepting public bailout monies;
    • the amount of regulation coming down the pike as a result of nationalism and isolationist policies re-emerging;
    • the amount of regulation coming down the pike with an all democratic government elected at the nadir of the worst financial crisis caused be lax regulation known to this country. I love Obama, and this country - and world - needs him, but without a balance of power (ex. repubs and dems) things may not go the way they should. Just imaginge a filibuster proof legislature leaning to just one side, with a matching president. I hope our President Elect has the fortitude and courage to do the right thing. Thus far, he has executed near flawlessly. though;
    • the effective price controls the EU, UK and US are using by watering down the mark to market rules for financial institutions, the ban on short selling, and the attempts at the government buying private securities in an attempt to affect private, free market prices. This, my friends, is price controls at a new level.
    [FONT='Tahoma','sans-serif'] Food and fuel prices, the main triggers[/font][FONT='Tahoma','sans-serif'] [/font][FONT='Tahoma','sans-serif'](Note: Reggie Middleton content from here on)[/font]
    [FONT='Tahoma','sans-serif']Commodity and fuel price-spurred inflation has put economies across the globe on the ropes. The price of crude doubled from US$73.39 per barrel on July 2, 2007, to US$147.47 in July 2008. The consequent increase in cost of production pushed up prices of other commodities keeping inflation high. The credit crisis has also had a bearing on inflation since September 2008. While lower demand due to the financial crisis pushed crude oil prices down to US$71.7 per barrel on October 17, 2008 (and currently in the mid-sixties), inflation has not returned to July 2007 levels yet, despite a drastic slowdown in nearly all of the world's major economies and emergining markets. This may be exacerbated by the largest concerted, global fiscal and monetary stimulus the world has ever known. This is how I make my money. See [/font] The Great Global Macro Experiment, Revisited.[FONT='Tahoma','sans-serif'] [/font]
    [FONT='Tahoma','sans-serif']Food prices rose more than 60% between December 2006 and July 2008, adding to inflation. Food prices increased largely due to increased demand for biofuel and inadequate rainfall in food grain producing countries. Virtually all commodities surged due to strong global growth during 2005-2007. Booming economies increased industrial activity and (consequently) demand of intermediate inputs such as metals and agricultural raw materials. This coupled with low inventories increased prices. However, the slowdown in global growth and the anticipated decline in demand for commodities are expected to dent prices. Commodity and fuel prices have already come off recent highs due to the financial turmoil and recessionary fears. However, inflation has not declined significantly due to second-round effects of underlying inflation. [/font]
    itulip and boombust... iboomtulip?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

      Local Liverpool news:-
      http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/liver...0252-22174083/

      Mike

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

        Just bought a 24 pack of 'Diet Coke'...only it was 20 cans.

        Also seeing 'sales' of 8 packs of 'Diet Pepsi'.

        Deflation of products but inflation of prices - 20% and 33% respectively.

        For the packaging still in the 'old' sizes: prices for a 12 pack of 'Diet Coke' have gone from $4.39 to $5.99 in a year at the same store.

        Oh, but we have deflation...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

          Originally posted by c1ue View Post
          Just bought a 24 pack of 'Diet Coke'...only it was 20 cans.

          Also seeing 'sales' of 8 packs of 'Diet Pepsi'.

          Deflation of products but inflation of prices - 20% and 33% respectively.

          For the packaging still in the 'old' sizes: prices for a 12 pack of 'Diet Coke' have gone from $4.39 to $5.99 in a year at the same store.

          Oh, but we have deflation...

          Yeah, I think I've mentioned before as well that I've been seeing the same thing happening in the supermarkets here in Ireland. They reduce the sizes first.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

            For the second time since July:




            This "deflation" is killing me!
            Last edited by Slimprofits; November 05, 2008, 05:07 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

              Evidence of stagflation in the home construction industry.

              Ed.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

                Fred, regarding homes in California. The cost of materials to build - even now - is not the expensive part of home ownership. It's land!

                For Home Builders they bid up land purchases across the nation well beyond real value. Yes, PPI went up and is now coming down but the real hidden cost was LAND.

                Just my two cents worth.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

                  Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                  Just bought a 24 pack of 'Diet Coke'...only it was 20 cans.

                  Also seeing 'sales' of 8 packs of 'Diet Pepsi'.

                  Deflation of products but inflation of prices - 20% and 33% respectively.

                  For the packaging still in the 'old' sizes: prices for a 12 pack of 'Diet Coke' have gone from $4.39 to $5.99 in a year at the same store.

                  Oh, but we have deflation...
                  The local Safeway has a once monthly "customer appreciation day" that used to offer a 15% discount on grocery items. This week they announced that they appreciate their customers rather less than they used to. The discount has been deflated to 10%. :p

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

                    Dog food, of all things. In the past two months, one brand I buy(Innova) has kept prices the same and shrunk the package 10% (from 33 pounds to 30). The other(Wellness) raised prices 14% last month.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

                      Falling or Rising prices in 2009? I guess it depends what products and services we are talking about.

                      Results 1 - 10 of about 684 for fare hike - i.e. buses, subways and trains all over the U.S.

                      *****

                      Is this the only restaurant (chain or not) that is considering raising menu prices? We shall see.

                      Cheesecake Factory considers price hikes in 2009
                      November 19, 2008: 03:25 PM EST

                      NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Restaurant chain Cheesecake Factory Inc. said Wednesday it is considering raising its menu prices...

                      To provide value to customers at the same time, Clark said the chain would introduce a menu with several items priced lower than the current menu in 100 of its restaurants in time for the holidays.

                      *****

                      Justice Dept OKs Republic-Allied Waste Deal, With Conditions

                      December 03, 2008

                      The Republic-Allied deal comes at a time when all three leading garbage haulers have been raising prices. The three companies control roughly two-thirds of the country's landfill business.

                      *****

                      Deere Net Falls; Shares Drop as View Trails Estimates

                      November 26, 2008

                      (John Deere) is raising prices as much as 7 percent on large, wheeled tractors and 9 percent to 10.5 percent on 2009 combines to cover rising costs. The company announced a 4 percent to 9 percent increase on construction and forestry equipment in August.

                      Deere spent $550 million more in 2008 on raw materials than a year ago, above its August projection for costs to climb $475 million, the company said in a slide presentation. Next year, materials may cost as much as $900 million above this year’s total, Deere said.

                      *****

                      Editorial: The 'D' stands for 'Diligence'
                      Published: Sunday, November 16, 2008

                      Medicare recipients who have been generally pleased with their Part D prescription plans over the last couple of years could be in for a rude shock unless they review their options before simply renewing their current plan. After underpricing their product to snare customers over the past two years, many companies that offer Part D plans are raising prices and reducing benefits.

                      *****

                      Ivorian farmgate cocoa prices surge on demand
                      Wed 3 Dec 2008, 8:57 GMT

                      Farmgate cocoa prices rose across Ivory Coast's main growing regions last week, propelled by demand for beans and fears of a poor 2008/09 season in the world's top grower, farmers and exporters said on Wednesday.

                      *****

                      This is the most interesting of the articles that I read tonight.

                      Why global food companies are raising prices?
                      2008-12-02

                      Protein levels from this year's North American soybean crop are significantly lower than in previous years, dramatically impacting our input costs and reducing factory capacity. While Solae is accelerating network capacity programs to mitigate the reduction in effective capacity and maintain its commitment to support the growing demand for soy protein, there is no near term solution for how to avoid the cost increase impact.

                      *****

                      Smucker's Sweet Second Quarter
                      11.21.08

                      J.M. Smucker is spreading costs around, raising prices on its eponymous jellies and jams to compensate for high commodity expenses.

                      *****

                      Campbell Soup Q1 profit declines
                      November 24, 2008

                      Campbell Soup is raising prices to offset rising costs for everything from oil to wheat.

                      *****

                      I am not seeing the drop in dairy and produce prices on the shelves that is mentioned in this article from the New York Times. Quite the opposite. And on 12/31, Safeway corporation is eliminating all gas rewards that haven't been used.

                      Outlook for food prices: No relief
                      December 1, 2008

                      Government and industry economists project that the overall cost of food will continue to climb in 2009, led by increases for meat and poultry. A big reason, they say, is that food companies still have not caught up with the prolonged run-up in commodity prices, which remain above historical averages despite coming down from their highs early this year.

                      The Agriculture Department is forecasting that food prices will increase 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent in 2009, compared with an estimated 5 percent to 6 percent increase by the end of this year. Some economists project even steeper increases next year. For instance, Bill Lapp, principal at Advanced Economic Solutions in Omaha, said he expects food prices to jump 7 percent to 9 percent next year.

                      "For the last 21 months, food manufacturers, restaurants and livestock producers have been absorbing significant costs that in my view are likely to be passed on to consumers in 2009 and beyond," said Lapp, a former chief economist at ConAgra Foods.

                      Now, even though ingredient costs like corn and wheat have dropped, meat and poultry providers say they still have not raised prices enough to cover their increased costs. And packaged food manufacturers are unlikely to lower prices because commodity costs remain relatively high and they are still trying to rebuild eroded margins.

                      William Roenigk, senior vice president and chief economist for the National Chicken Council, said his industry had been losing money for more than a year. Chicken producers are now trying to recover those costs by reducing production, which will eventually alter the balance between supply and demand. "The time is coming when we're going to see a very significant increase in the retail price of chicken," he said.

                      *****
                      Tuition increase will provide $55 million to Arizona universities
                      Arizona Capitol Times, AZ - Dec 4, 2008



                      *****


                      Officials say tuition hikes may not cover budget cuts
                      Independent Florida Alligator, FL - Nov 25, 2008

                      Raising tuition next year could bring in up to $24 million for UF



                      *****


                      Students rally against SUNY proposal
                      Lower Hudson Journal news, NY - Dec 2, 2008

                      The governor has proposed raising tuition $600 a year, to $4950, starting in the spring.
                      Last edited by Slimprofits; December 08, 2008, 05:07 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

                        Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                        Falling or Rising prices in 2009? I guess it depends what products and services we are talking about.

                        Results 1 - 10 of about 684 for fare hike - i.e. buses, subways and trains all over the U.S.

                        *****

                        Is this the only restaurant (chain or not) that is considering raising menu prices? We shall see.

                        Cheesecake Factory considers price hikes in 2009
                        November 19, 2008: 03:25 PM EST

                        NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Restaurant chain Cheesecake Factory Inc. said Wednesday it is considering raising its menu prices...

                        To provide value to customers at the same time, Clark said the chain would introduce a menu with several items priced lower than the current menu in 100 of its restaurants in time for the holidays.

                        *****

                        Justice Dept OKs Republic-Allied Waste Deal, With Conditions

                        December 03, 2008

                        The Republic-Allied deal comes at a time when all three leading garbage haulers have been raising prices. The three companies control roughly two-thirds of the country's landfill business.

                        *****

                        Deere Net Falls; Shares Drop as View Trails Estimates

                        November 26, 2008

                        (John Deere) is raising prices as much as 7 percent on large, wheeled tractors and 9 percent to 10.5 percent on 2009 combines to cover rising costs. The company announced a 4 percent to 9 percent increase on construction and forestry equipment in August.

                        Deere spent $550 million more in 2008 on raw materials than a year ago, above its August projection for costs to climb $475 million, the company said in a slide presentation. Next year, materials may cost as much as $900 million above this year’s total, Deere said.

                        *****

                        Editorial: The 'D' stands for 'Diligence'
                        Published: Sunday, November 16, 2008

                        Medicare recipients who have been generally pleased with their Part D prescription plans over the last couple of years could be in for a rude shock unless they review their options before simply renewing their current plan. After underpricing their product to snare customers over the past two years, many companies that offer Part D plans are raising prices and reducing benefits.

                        *****

                        Ivorian farmgate cocoa prices surge on demand
                        Wed 3 Dec 2008, 8:57 GMT

                        Farmgate cocoa prices rose across Ivory Coast's main growing regions last week, propelled by demand for beans and fears of a poor 2008/09 season in the world's top grower, farmers and exporters said on Wednesday.

                        *****

                        This is the most interesting of the articles that I read tonight.

                        Why global food companies are raising prices?
                        2008-12-02

                        Protein levels from this year's North American soybean crop are significantly lower than in previous years, dramatically impacting our input costs and reducing factory capacity. While Solae is accelerating network capacity programs to mitigate the reduction in effective capacity and maintain its commitment to support the growing demand for soy protein, there is no near term solution for how to avoid the cost increase impact.

                        *****

                        Smucker's Sweet Second Quarter
                        11.21.08

                        J.M. Smucker is spreading costs around, raising prices on its eponymous jellies and jams to compensate for high commodity expenses.

                        *****

                        Campbell Soup Q1 profit declines
                        November 24, 2008

                        Campbell Soup is raising prices to offset rising costs for everything from oil to wheat.

                        *****

                        I am not seeing the drop in dairy and produce prices on the shelves that is mentioned in this article from the New York Times. Quite the opposite. And on 12/31, Safeway corporation is eliminating all gas rewards that haven't been used.

                        Outlook for food prices: No relief
                        December 1, 2008

                        Government and industry economists project that the overall cost of food will continue to climb in 2009, led by increases for meat and poultry. A big reason, they say, is that food companies still have not caught up with the prolonged run-up in commodity prices, which remain above historical averages despite coming down from their highs early this year.

                        The Agriculture Department is forecasting that food prices will increase 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent in 2009, compared with an estimated 5 percent to 6 percent increase by the end of this year. Some economists project even steeper increases next year. For instance, Bill Lapp, principal at Advanced Economic Solutions in Omaha, said he expects food prices to jump 7 percent to 9 percent next year.

                        "For the last 21 months, food manufacturers, restaurants and livestock producers have been absorbing significant costs that in my view are likely to be passed on to consumers in 2009 and beyond," said Lapp, a former chief economist at ConAgra Foods.

                        Now, even though ingredient costs like corn and wheat have dropped, meat and poultry providers say they still have not raised prices enough to cover their increased costs. And packaged food manufacturers are unlikely to lower prices because commodity costs remain relatively high and they are still trying to rebuild eroded margins.

                        William Roenigk, senior vice president and chief economist for the National Chicken Council, said his industry had been losing money for more than a year. Chicken producers are now trying to recover those costs by reducing production, which will eventually alter the balance between supply and demand. "The time is coming when we're going to see a very significant increase in the retail price of chicken," he said.

                        *****
                        Tuition increase will provide $55 million to Arizona universities
                        Arizona Capitol Times, AZ - Dec 4, 2008



                        *****


                        Officials say tuition hikes may not cover budget cuts
                        Independent Florida Alligator, FL - Nov 25, 2008

                        Raising tuition next year could bring in up to $24 million for UF



                        *****


                        Students rally against SUNY proposal
                        Lower Hudson Journal news, NY - Dec 2, 2008

                        The governor has proposed raising tuition $600 a year, to $4950, starting in the spring.
                        Great compilation! Looks like you were up late putting it together for us...:eek:.

                        What are you seeing first hand in regards to hospitality industry cost patterns [inputs and what gets passed on to customers] in your part of California?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

                          But aren't these price increases lagging indicators, like airline fuel surcharges? Now that commodity input prices are plummeting it seems harder to justify cost increases. That is unless you are using them as an excuse to enhance the bottom line. Not likely the end user would put up with that. though.
                          Greg

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

                            Originally posted by BiscayneSunrise View Post
                            But aren't these price increases lagging indicators, like airline fuel surcharges? Now that commodity input prices are plummeting it seems harder to justify cost increases. That is unless you are using them as an excuse to enhance the bottom line. Not likely the end user would put up with that. though.
                            No doubt the commodity spike is still working its way through the global economy. But what I find interesting is that commodities did not all peak this past summer in concert with crude oil [which got all the press]. Some peaked well before that, yet we are still seeing that lag? Now?

                            I wonder if we will ever see a compilation like this of a broad range of coincident consumer price declines. I very much doubt it...for two primary reasons:
                            1. The debt deflation is occurring at a very rapid pace, forcing this disinflation [ok, deflation if one prefers] phase to be compressed into an extraordinarily short period of time. When this unwind ends, the risk of inflation will be elevated...and this debt deflation unwind is not going to drag on for years and years, like it did in the 1930s or Japan.
                            2. Capacity is coming out of the system everywhere. And fast. In the US it's a race to see whether those that file for Chapter 11, like Pilgrim's Pride, to deal with their balance sheet debt problems will gain an advantage over those that ran their businesses more prudently. Regardless, when this "chicken war" [or the "car wars" playing out in D.C. and other political centres worldwide] is over, there will be less total capacity, and the surviving producers will have greater pricing power than they did coming into this economic downturn. These are just a couple of illustrations, as this dynamic is playing out right across the globe in every sector of pretty well every economy.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Inflation: Continued and various and sundry observations

                              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                              Great compilation! Looks like you were up late putting it together for us...:eek:.

                              What are you seeing first hand in regards to hospitality industry cost patterns [inputs and what gets passed on to customers] in your part of California?
                              I caution people on reading too much into this geographical area in particular. It is a little different to be sure (I can explain further if you'd like in a private conversation).

                              I wonder if the lag around here (somewhat rural, very small population that sees a big seasonal jump in the Summer into late fall) is more so than elsewhere. I've been here 2.5 years now and food prices at the large supermarkets have gone up all along, but only late this summer and into the fall did the locally owned small businesses start to pass on rising transport, energy, water (a local shortage) and food input prices.

                              And to answer a previous question that you posed to the community, our property taxes just went up.
                              Last edited by Slimprofits; December 08, 2008, 12:00 PM.

                              Comment

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