Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

[GRG55]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

Mining Management tends to be technically saavy and economically brain-damaged.

See Barrick buying back hedges at the top of the gold market as opposed TO hedging at the top!

I think, honestly, the best risk-adjusted return now is with near-term producers that have raised financing... something like a Nevsun.

I doubt they are economically brain damaged. In fact I suspect they have, each and every one, done quite well by their stock options allocations and cash outs over the years. Be assured they listened very carefully to what Wall Street told them to do, and when to do it. And every time they obediently followed [including buying in the hedges], the analysts and brokers got behind the stock and moved it in the agreed direction so the prop desks and management could cut up the cash. Stockholders? Who gives a shzt about stockholders...

[GRG55]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

Moto and Banro are two mining co's in Dem rep of congo.

Both have great deposits, and their valuations are obscene. Moto is especially cheap..

Banro will soon be producing using heap-leech rather than a mill to keep capex low until the markets improve. Banro is depressed because of recent dilutive financing. Moto is depressed because everything sucks now.

I have a phobia, dating back to early childhood, that prevents me from investing in any country with a name that starts with "Democratic Republic of..."

[Tulpen]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

Ask yourself this question:

Why would gold mining flourish in a severe ecomomic recession or even depression?

Increased activity in goldmining would be an utterly useless economic activity similar to creating employment by having 50% or the unemployed dig holes and the other 50% filling them up.

Increase in agriculture feeds people, increase in energy keeps people warm and allows them to move and produce but increasing gold mining will do nothing for people.

Sure in a depression we all start digging for gold so we all will be rich.

[grapejelly]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

Ask yourself this question:

Why would gold mining flourish in a severe ecomomic recession or even depression?

Increased activity in godmining would be an utterly useless economic activity similar to creating employment by having 50% or the unemployed dig holes and the other 50% filling them up.

Increase in agriculture feeds people, increase in energy keeps people warm and allows them to move and produce but increasing gold mining will do nothing for people.

Sure in a depression we all start digging for gold so we all will be rich.

ask yourself this question:if the value of paper money and financial assets declines at a furious rate, and people perceive this decline and fear it, where do people move their wealth to?

To more paper and financial assets? Or to gold and silver?

[Tulpen]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

ask yourself this question:if the value of paper money and financial assets declines at a furious rate, and people perceive this decline and fear it, where do people move their wealth to?

There is nowhere to move as all charts will show you that all asset classes are declining in value.

Going into gold, which has a next to worthless economic value, is the worst thing to do IMHO. Seriously what are you going to do with gold in a depression, swim in it every day like Uncle Scrooge?

[Chris]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

ask yourself this question:if the value of paper money and financial assets declines at a furious rate, and people perceive this decline and fear it, where do people move their wealth to?

To more paper and financial assets? Or to gold and silver?

Yes, but why would gold producers and miners then want to exchange their gold for paper assets?

[Tulpen]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

Yes, but why would gold producers and miners then want to exchange their gold for paper assets?

Bingo!

Ring the bell when all public gold mining companies urgently want to go private.

[Guest]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

Tulpen -

Ask yourself this question: What earthly reason is there for the US stock market to boom again in the next couple of years? Answer is because a vast pile of new credits are coming down the sluicegates. This is not an abstraction. The units which we use to denominate our internal commerce in the US are in the process of doubling in short order. Your "slack internal and global demand" reasoning, which is entirely rational, can wind up simply being swatted aside, as the redoubling of the units of money will urgently need to get lodged somewhere. (Zimbabwe stock market flying ghoul redux, but writ giant sized per US economic scale). That's why you can get soaring stock market rallies in the middle of economic environments which should be soft depressions instead. Safety valves and doubled monetary aggregates are real entities.

You only need to ask yourself this much: Will stock markets stage a blistering sustained rally off this largest of equity market declines? Will equities respond to a doubling of the monetary aggregates, or will they lie there like piles of dead mackerels? If they start jumping like someone just ran a 10,000 volt current through their lifeless carcasses, you will see the gold stocks jump in there with better intrinsic reason to jump than many of the rest. You can of course discard this thesis, but if you discard it you are forecasting a lifeless stock market for the next couple of years. I think rather, that in response to what is being produced money wise today we will see DOW 30,000 within 3-5 years. Please remember when you see the stock market start to soar, that you read that here first!

I think at some point in the next 3 years the US equities markets are going to jump like a scalded cat. Of course the Fed would be delighted at that outcome and they will nurse that outcome along with everything at their disposal. Call this maybe the "new, new contrarianism". So if the broad equity indexes in the US jump like scalded cats due to historically unprecedented liquidity, what do you think those pokey useless gold stocks are going to do? Oh, and in this scenario alt-energy stocks are going to stage a run for the ages, because the petroleum dragon is going to be waking up again (soon). We are just now learning that the fuse of production declines which we all thought was of moderate length (meaning we still had five to ten years more to dither about) is instead very short, and that the world is staring right now at production declines closing in on 10% a year. At the first hints of firming in global gdp growth, that rope is therefore likely to tighten so fast that it will heave the entire world dangling like a hung man in short order.

Put together what's just one-two-three years away then. What do these highly irrational, goosed-money world components add up to?

Liquidity on a global scale such as the world has never seen arrives. Global stock markets meanwhile in continuing weakened turmoil as the US consumer of last resort fades the global scene. Aided and abetted by a few other currencies blowing up? USD keeps a strong bid as global markts turmoil persists and Roubini's "deflationary" global scenario plays out. US stock markets defy the cookie cutter "deflationary" scenario (because it wasn't real deflation anyway) and react like a corpse which has been plugged into a 10,000 volt current. They stand, they walk around jerkily. Then they fly. Foreign money sees A) persistently strong USD, B) strengthening US stock markets while global bourses remain chaotically weaker, C) everybody else buying the tar out of US markets. Follow the momentum trade. Everybody piles into US equities and they run big.

[Guest]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

There is nowhere to move as all charts will show you that all asset classes are declining in value.

Going into gold, which has a next to worthless economic value, is the worst thing to do IMHO. Seriously what are you going to do with gold in a depression, swim in it every day like Uncle Scrooge?

Yes, you're correct. Much better to hold US Bonars which will of course soar in value as they print limitless numbers of them to fund multi Trillion $$ deficits and Trillions in cascading bailouts needed to keep the natives from getting too restless.

If you can find one still alive, go ask a German who lived in the Weimar republic if he'd have liked to have a couple hundred oz's of "worthless" gold around during the depression back then.

You can't swim in it. But you can buy nice mansions with swimming pools with it.

[hle]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

There is nowhere to move as all charts will show you that all asset classes are declining in value.

Going into gold, which has a next to worthless economic value, is the worst thing to do IMHO. Seriously what are you going to do with gold in a depression, swim in it every day like Uncle Scrooge?

one doesn't swim in gold. one uses it, as money should be used

gold is no more or less useful than dollars. if you don't think my gold has any value, we can't exchange goods and services.

likewise, if i don't like your dollars....

everything is worth what somebody will pay for it, or something like that.

[metalman]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

one doesn't swim in gold. one uses it, as money should be used

gold is no more or less useful than dollars. if you don't think my gold has any value, we can't exchange goods and services.

likewise, if i don't like your dollars....

everything is worth what somebody will pay for it, or something like that.

after reading koo and ej today here's my 2015 prediction...

10 euro 2008 = 100 euro 2015
10 dollars 2008 = 100 dollars 2015
10 yen 2008 = 100 yen 2015
1 oz gold 2008 = 10x vs all of them

[kingcopper]

Re: Puplava: Gold shares to outperform bullion, and soon

after reading koo and ej today here's my 2015 prediction...

10 euro 2008 = 100 euro 2015
10 dollars 2008 = 100 dollars 2015
10 yen 2008 = 100 yen 2015
1 oz gold 2008 = 10x vs all of them

I agree with you Metalman. It's just a matter of time but we are looking into a hole that will force our gubernits to add a zero.