Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

[Judas]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Again, it's time for EJ to battle Roubini.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

I have always been on the side that we are in a deflationary period. I am not sure what going off the gold standard prevents renders the term meaningless.
I think this period will invert to inflation sometime when Obama takes office.

Actually I don't think we are in a panic. I think the markets are acurately measuring the structural difficulties in the US and World Economies. The great virtual economy created with the computer revolution the last 30 years has leveled off if not stalled. Intel has produced no serioys CPU performance jump in 4 years. There are no new applications increasing productivity gains. Apple is cute but its packaging improves quality of life but doesn't offer real productivity gains. The other structural difficulty, and perhaps as important, is the realization that a lot of the intelligencia is full of it. This has occured mainly in finance but it has shown its ugly head in defense and the health industry. The market has lost the confidence in itself to determine value and worth.

The age of the dividend driven market has began.

[metalman]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

I have always been on the side that we are in a deflationary period. I am not sure what going off the gold standard prevents renders the term meaningless.
I think this period will invert to inflation sometime when Obama takes office.

Actually I don't think we are in a panic. I think the markets are acurately measuring the structural difficulties in the US and World Economies. The great virtual economy created with the computer revolution the last 30 years has leveled off if not stalled. Intel has produced no serioys CPU performance jump in 4 years. There are no new applications increasing productivity gains. Apple is cute but its packaging improves quality of life but doesn't offer real productivity gains. The other structural difficulty, and perhaps as important, is the realization that a lot of the intelligencia is full of it. This has occured mainly in finance but it has shown its ugly head in defense and the health industry. The market has lost the confidence in itself to determine value and worth.

The age of the dividend driven market has began.

wow. cool observation. gotta think about that.

[Jay]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Bro, that is genius.

[metalman]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

high five! take 'em on!

[marvenger]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

The net effect seems to me to have been extraordinarily massively undercapitalised hedge funds selling insurance to massively undercapitalised banks to try to make them look better capitalised. Should work out fine.

[MLM]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Careful EJ, don't get any on ya.

http://gawker.com/5063337/the-secret...res-of-dr-doom

phirang's hero is a strange man.

"The 50-year-old Iranian-Jewish economist is a promiscuous Facebook friend who draws a cosmopolitan crowd to the frequent parties at his Tribeca loft—an apartment with walls indented with plaster vulvas, incidentally."

[phirang]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Careful EJ, don't get any on ya.

http://gawker.com/5063337/the-secret...res-of-dr-doom

phirang's hero is a strange man.

"The 50-year-old Iranian-Jewish economist is a promiscuous Facebook friend who draws a cosmopolitan crowd to the frequent parties at his Tribeca loft—an apartment with walls indented with plaster vulvas, incidentally."

Roubini's a pimp: respect!

[metalman]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Careful EJ, don't get any on ya.

http://gawker.com/5063337/the-secret...res-of-dr-doom

phirang's hero is a strange man.

"The 50-year-old Iranian-Jewish economist is a promiscuous Facebook friend who draws a cosmopolitan crowd to the frequent parties at his Tribeca loft—an apartment with walls indented with plaster vulvas, incidentally."

plaster vulvas, eh? yeh, keep it a telephonic debate

[Guest]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Actually that is a slightly mischievous reference. I lived in Tribeca for 13 years and I have a pretty good idea what this was derived from. One of the hottest artists of the past 30 years in NY, and a denizen of Trbeca is sculptor Robert Morris. He's actually a pretty good artist although he was a lot better in his earlier years. This sounds like absolutely trademark late Robert Morris art. He's been doing elaborate and increasingly macabre / shocking assemblages of cast bodyparts for going on 20 years and his work is a fixture throughout Tribeca's art environment.

What this tells me rather, is that Roubini's tastes in art are actually rather conventional, insofar as Robert Morris's work is about as "blue chip" as could be for the Manhattan art scene. It suggests rather, that he had a "professional contemporary interior designer" produce his "contemporary bespoke" loft environment. This is the sign of an essentially conservative temperament, (maybe an NYU economics professor very much in te limelight who wanted a cool pad but does not know much about art). In short, a cautious temperament, not a radical one. Yes it's counterintuitive. The New York world is a bit of a hot house, so we must make all due cultural allowances.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Intel has produced no serious CPU performance jump in 4 years.

That's a computer technology observation, in my view, not a financial markets observation.

I've ridden several waves of this computer technology trend; it was the backbone of my entire 30 year career as a systems programmer specializing in multi-processor operating system development.

The trend was this: from cabinets to drawers to boards to chips, each layer smaller has eventually gone from single processor to multi-threaded processor, as the limits of electronic hardware at that size no longer allowed for further http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%E2%80%99s_law Moore's Law performance improvements in a single CPU.

Where we are now is that there was a couple year lag in Intel's product development plan, during which Intel was reawakened by a kick in the butt from AMD's http://www.amd.com/us-en/Processors/...2_2353,00.html HyperTransport Technology, before Intel changed from the faster-faster single CPU per chip line of development that culminated in Pentium CPU's, and got up a head of steam in the multiple CPU core per chip technology seen in their Core http://www.intel.com/products/proces...2duo/index.htm Intel® Core™2 Duo Processors.

Those of us following the trends knew decades ahead of time that this was coming, and some like myself leveraged successful careers off that insight.

Over the next few years, you will see the number of x86 equivalent cores on a single chip go from 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 to ... at least 64. Memory bus architectures (such as AMD's HyperTransport) become a critical design element. And the massive multiprocessor work done in kernels such as Linux, by folks such as myself, go from being used on boutique high end computers, to being used on tens of millions of processors.

It is this trend, along with the explosive growth of the Web over the last 20 years, that is helping to drive the trend back to centralized computing, at sites such as Google and Amazon. Ordinary human users of computers simply don't have much use for more than a handful of computing threads at once. So if the most efficient use is to be made of the most efficient CPUs, they must be shared by many.

However, the real driver of such shared computing is more a sociological phenomenon. Human use of computers is a deeply shared event, as a web of shared culture/information/understanding forms over our civilization, binding us together in ways unimaginable to most people even a decade ago.

Now, we have the technical means necessary for the rapid evolution of this web of human civlization, and those means continue to improve rapidly.

[zadok]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Hey guys look on the bright side. You can stick your gold up in the attic with the beanie babies and in 30 years you can bring it out when they decide to do it all over again. I remember back in the 70s everyone was chasing gold then it was all over.

[*T*]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Some folks here are behaving a little like spoilt kids.

1) Take responsibility for your own decisions
2) Stop blaming other people
3) Get some grit in your stomach
4) Stop expecting instant results

...seems like a good prescription to many members of our modern society.

[Chomsky]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Dr. Doom vs. Dr. Poom!

[aa]

Re: Deflation: It's time to call a spade a spade.

Scroll right down to the bottom of this page and you will see:

"Nothing on this website is intended or should be construed as investment advice. It is intended to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only. By using this board you agree that you understand the risks of trading, and are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions."

I've been following itulip since 1999 and have always valued EJs commentaries and ideas.
But that's all they are - not investment advice - despite the fact the arguments are often made with great conviction. I've been amazed at how accurate EJ has been on some of his calls - I should have paid more attention - but nobody can predict the future with any accuracy.

Trading is speculating. Trading based on stuff you read on a website is gambling, or worse.