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So When Will Banks Give Loans?

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  • So When Will Banks Give Loans?

    So When Will Banks Give Loans?

    Chase recently received $25 billion in federal funding. What effect will that have on the business side and will it change our strategic lending policy?

    It was Oct. 17, just four days after JPMorgan Chase’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, agreed to take a $25 billion capital injection courtesy of the United States government, when a JPMorgan employee asked that question. It came toward the end of an employee-only conference call that had been largely devoted to meshing certain divisions of JPMorgan with its new acquisition, Washington Mutual.

    Which, of course, it also got thanks to the federal government. Christmas came early at JPMorgan Chase.

    The JPMorgan executive who was moderating the employee conference call didn’t hesitate to answer a question that was pretty politically sensitive given the events of the previous few weeks.

    Given the way, that is, that Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. had decided to use the first installment of the $700 billion bailout money to recapitalize banks instead of buying up their toxic securities, which he had then sold to Congress and the American people as the best and fastest way to get the banks to start making loans again, and help prevent this recession from getting much, much worse.

    In point of fact, the dirty little secret of the banking industry is that it has no intention of using the money to make new loans. But this executive was the first insider who’s been indiscreet enough to say it within earshot of a journalist.

    (He didn’t mean to, of course, but I obtained the call-in number and listened to a recording.)

    “Twenty-five billion dollars is obviously going to help the folks who are struggling more than Chase,” he began. “What we do think it will help us do is perhaps be a little bit more active on the acquisition side or opportunistic side for some banks who are still struggling. And I would not assume that we are done on the acquisition side just because of the Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns mergers. I think there are going to be some great opportunities for us to grow in this environment, and I think we have an opportunity to use that $25 billion in that way and obviously depending on whether recession turns into depression or what happens in the future, you know, we have that as a backstop.

    Read that answer as many times as you want — you are not going to find a single word in there about making loans to help the American economy. On the contrary: at another point in the conference call, the same executive (who I’m not naming because he didn’t know I would be listening in) explained that “loan dollars are down significantly.” He added, “We would think that loan volume will continue to go down as we continue to tighten credit to fully reflect the high cost of pricing on the loan side.” In other words JPMorgan has no intention of turning on the lending spigot.

  • #2
    Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

    The more I think about it, the more I believe the issue isn't as it seems.

    Banks do want to lend money.

    But they cannot if there is systemic deleveraging.

    Between collapse of the ratings con game, increase of risk, incoming/arrived recession, and general FIRE economy collapse, the environment simply cannot sustain (any longer) the types of leverage employed in the past few years.

    If you are going from a bank 30 to 1 leverage ratio down to 15 to 1, that simply doesn't leave any room for new loans.

    Throwing money at the problem thus is doomed to failure because of scale - something we've already witnessed.

    Because if the banks can only sustain a 15 to 1 ratio and they're going from 30 to 1, you've got to basically double the base capital to maintain the same loan volume.

    If they're going from 30 to 1, to 10/1, then you've got to triple the capital just to break even.

    Present total system deposits according to the FDIC is $7 trillion.

    Presumably system capital is somewhat higher than that.

    Thus we're going to need at least that much 'injection' to maintain previous FIRE loan volume.

    Now you understand why Bernanke is scared s**tless.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

      C1ue

      I think you may be correct on this -- and if you are, the US taxpayer is up sh** creek -- Good Bye Tax Cuts -- Hello higher tax brackets and possibly VATs

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

        For what its worth - since 9/17/2008 and through 10/15/2008 per the Fed's weekly H8 report, bank credit has moved from $9.55 trillion to $9.92 billion.
        That's an increase of about $360 billion. It moved the annual change rate from 6.8% to 9.6%.

        Per the same H8 report and same time period, real estate credit has increased about $166 billion.

        Its not impossible that the numbers at least partially reflect reality. There is quite a bit of "blood in the streets".
        Please don't shoot the messenger.
        http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

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        • #5
          Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

          I don't think there is much of an issue with the "conventional banking system" -- The problem is with the super leveraged "shadow banking system" -- I do not think that the "shadow banking system" numbers are published in quite the same way as they are for the "conventional banking system"

          The problem is that many of the "larger banks" along with their "conventional business" had a big finger in the "shadow banking business"

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          • #6
            Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

            Bart,

            The loan numbers I speak of are not necessarily just what are shown in the Fed's data - after all, shadow banking doesn't get represented but (as seems very clear now) was quite interdependent on the actual banking sector.

            As another example: Bank has Z capital with 15*Z in outstanding loans. But these loans are to hedge funds who in turn are levered 5x.

            As systemic deleveraging occurs, the bank reduces its risk to said hedge funds.

            As bank goes from 15*Z loan leverage to 12*Z loan leverage, the 3*Z of loans not extended to or even recalled from said hedge fund equals a reduction in net loan availability by 15*Z, or a net system effect withdrawing the equivalent of the bank's entire capital base.

            Another example would be via the real estate route: Whereas before banks were willing to extend loans with 5% or even 0% down - equivalent to 20x & infinite*x leverage for the debtors, now banks are back to staid old 20% down loans - 5x leverage for debtors. That dynamic itself reduces how much loan can be available even without the capital base/solvency issues.

            In both examples - the hedge fund loans don't show as bank credit, nor would the mortgages after securitization. But absence also has effects.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

              No argument or disagreement with either Rajiv's or c1ue's points.

              More data on shadow banking & derivatives in a recent thread of mine: Gold derivatives & US bankers , including a link to the most recent report from the Treasury on derivatives.
              http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

                Where was the "shadow banking sytem" getting its money from? Yen carry trade?

                Surprisingly, no one really knows just how big the carry trade is. Official Japanese statistics suggest that for much of 2006, Japan actually had a net inflow of bond investment -- which would imply that the carry trade was a collective figment of the world's financial imagination. More helpfully, a leading Japanese official last week estimated conservatively that the carry trade was worth between $80 billion and $160 billion.

                The carry trade is likely to be many times this size. Few financial institutions actually borrow yen to buy higher-yielding currencies. Hedge funds execute the carry trade through complex financial transactions, such as currency forward swaps. Because these trades are off-balance-sheet transactions, they do not show up in official statistics. A better estimate of the size of the carry trade is the record of net "short" positions in yen futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This puts the total size of the carry trade as high as $1 trillion.
                This was in 2006 -- I believe that when the carry trade resumed the money really multiplied.

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                • #9
                  Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

                  Is this from the call which was posted as a mp3 on the net and itulip?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

                    I don't think so -- according to the reporter, this call was on Oct 17 -- the other one I believe was much earlier, and was a Treasury Department conference call and was held in September

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: So When Will Banks Give Loans?

                      Originally posted by Rajiv View Post
                      I don't think so -- according to the reporter, this call was on Oct 17 -- the other one I believe was much earlier, and was a Treasury Department conference call and was held in September
                      I think you are right, it was earlier


                      I still don't get what the plan was with Lehman


                      Paulson says he was unable to do anything
                      “We didn’t have the powers,” Mr. Paulson insisted, explaining a decision that many have since criticized — to allow Lehman to go bankrupt. By law, he continued, the Federal Reserve could bail out Lehman with a loan only if the bank had enough good assets to serve as collateral, which it did not.

                      “If someone thinks Hank Paulson could have made the Fed save Lehman Brothers, the answer is, ‘No way,’ ” he said.

                      http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/23/bu...23paulson.html


                      "Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s main lender and clearing agent, JPMorgan Chase & Co., caused the liquidity crisis that led to Lehman's collapse, creditors said.

                      JPMorgan had more than $17 billion of Lehman's cash and securities three days before the investment bank filed the biggest bankruptcy in history on Sept. 15, the creditors committee said in a filing Oct. 2 in bankruptcy court in Manhattan. Denying Lehman access to the assets on Sept. 12, the bank ``froze'' Lehman's account, the creditors claimed.

                      http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...m-cash-ca.html
                      http://asecondhandconjecture.com/ind...nd-nightmares/



                      What is the plan, just consolidate and reshape the banking system to your wishes, send shockwaves around the world or more?
                      Last edited by D-Mack; October 27, 2008, 03:53 PM.

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