When (will) Gold recover?

[j4f2h0]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Typical case of the odd lot v.s the big traders. Joe sixpack reads about armageddon in the stock market, catches a phrase or two from gold bugs, perhaps he even entertains conspiracy theories and decides he should purchase a coin or two.

This debate has become so dogmatic it is a waste of time even reading it. Lukester i applaud your ability to continually present facts that quickly get swept under the rug to perpetuate more dogmatism. At what point to u just agree to disagree and go on to debate topics that can be debated with facts on both sides not assumptions. This to me seems like a Evolution vs Creationism argument!

[Guest]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Thanks j4f2h0 -

I will say that Tulpen seems to be a quite astute and agile trader and I've thought all along that his instincts seem pretty good. My comment about the intelligence or stupidity of the crowd was a considered comment. I would suggest that if you see a worldwide movement of people starting to squirrel away precious metal coins and ingots, it might pay to ponder whether this is more likely to be evidence of an extraordinary mass delusion, or whether "the hive" is demonstrating a collective intuition about an upcoming event.

I guess we could just leave it at that. "You pays your money and you takes your choice".

This debate has become so dogmatic it is a waste of time even reading it. Lukester i applaud your ability to continually present facts that quickly get swept under the rug to perpetuate more dogmatism. At what point to u just agree to disagree and go on to debate topics that can be debated with facts on both sides not assumptions. This to me seems like a Evolution vs Creationism argument!

[xela]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Thanks j4f2h0 -

I will say that Tulpen seems to be a quite astute and agile trader and I've thought all along that his instincts seem pretty good. My comment about the intelligence or stupidity of the crowd was a considered comment. I would suggest that if you see a worldwide movement of people starting to squirrel away precious metal coins and ingots, it might pay to ponder whether this is more likely to be evidence of an extraordinary mass delusion, or whether "the hive" is demonstrating a collective intuition about an upcoming event.

I guess we could just leave it at that. "You pays your money and you takes your choice".

Also, audits on buillionvault provide a valid sample of the behaviour of people (and not necessarily of your typical j6p either I'd guess).
Still buying (+500kg or 5% more gold now in vaults in the last 4 days- 17th-22nd) and quite some cash waiting on the sideline.

[Starving Steve]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

My position is different from that of Luke and that of Phirang; my position is that the Fed can not de-value the U.S. dollar without Saudi-Arabia turning-off the oil tap and China/Japan turning-off their supportive buying for U.S. debt. In other words, the Fed is check-mated.

The bottom-line is that the current de-flation is likely to continue, but there is a small risk of hyper-inflation later. Therefore: hold U.S. cash mostly, but also hold a bit of oil and gold for the long run as an insurance bet.

[GRG55]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Once the "crisis" is over(i.e. China cries, "uncle!"), the HUGE amount of private equity will then flow into the US and buy up the backstopped assets from the government and further consolidate the US economy into fewer hands.

It would not suit these interests for the credit freeze to persist through 2009.

Therefore, I find these calls for decade-long recession to be just as stupid as the calls for a dollar crash etc: more amateurs who frankly don't get it.

And B'nake has shown that he OWNS inflation: he can BURY it if he desires, and he has DESTROYED Jimmy Rogers: remember Jimmy's b.s. about the END OF THE WORLD for the USD? What's his P&L now? He was buy australian and new zealand dollars at their peak this summer... what a retard!

It would equally not suit these interests for their cost of credit to Buy America Cheap to be rising because the Fed is "fighting inflation". ZIRP like behaviour and more Quantitative Easing is the order of the day, and will be the special on the Fed menu for an extended duration. The future foreign buyers of America's seed corn know that.

And I agree that the Fed can "BURY" inflation if they wish. But burying it [temporarily out of sight] and killing it are two completely different propositions. And they have no ability to kill it. Just because the Fed organised a nice funeral with a lovely hand polished coffin doesn't mean inflation is dead. ;)

[metalman]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

It would equally not suit these interests for their cost of credit to Buy America Cheap to be rising because the Fed is "fighting inflation". ZIRP like behaviour and more Quantitative Easing is the order of the day, and will be the special on the Fed menu for an extended duration. The future foreign buyers of America's seed corn know that.

And I agree that the Fed can "BURY" inflation if they wish. But burying it [temporarily out of sight] and killing it are two completely different propositions. And they have no ability to kill it. Just because the Fed organised a nice funeral with a lovely hand polished coffin doesn't mean inflation is dead. ;)

inflation poison pill

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Therefore: hold U.S. cash mostly, but also hold a bit of oil and gold for the long run as an insurance bet.

That's what I'm doing. I figure I'll likely fail to perfectly time the change from a strong dollar to whatever is strong next (perhaps gold), but if I stay alert and liquid, I can probably avoid a massive loss of my piddling wealth, and gain a little relative to my less astute neighbors.

So for now, it's dollars and liquid equivalents, because that's what's working, plus a minor, shrinking, bit of gold, in memory of the good times the golden mistress and I shared in the past.

And if things move too fast for me, so that I step in front of a financial runaway train at the wrong time, then at least I still have my good health.

Or ... lacking even that ... well, it was a good life while it lasted.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

My position is different from that of Luke and that of Phirang ...

Lukester describes a scenario where the authorities have somewhat lost control of the US "economy" and are throwing the kitchen sink at it in the hopes of reviving it. ...

Phirang seems to describe a situation where recent market turmoil has been carefully managed in order to consolidate wealth further into fewer hands. The current disinflation has been carefully managed as part of this dastardly plan.

May I suggest it is both a runaway disaster, and an orchestrated consolidation.

I imagine that after that famous asteroid hit the Yucatan peninsula 65 million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs (if that's what happened) that shortly thereafter, the fastest, most ferocious raptors were feasting on the carcasses of their weakened comrades.

Presently, I figure that the debt-based money system of the Rothschilds, Rockefellers and Morgans, which lives on in the financial institutions of JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, the New York Fed and the U.S.Treasury, inter alia, has achieved its final, greatest, climax.

The asteroid of such excessive leverage that an even greater bubble can no longer be constructed has hit planet earth. The king raptor, JPMorgan, is feasting. Raptor steak is momentarily the coin of the realm.

The main event is a runaway disaster. Credit based money tends to do that. However in this case, Western Civilization had a few centuries of magnificant glory, and terrible wars, in the process.

But the king carnivores are doing their best to herd the weaker animals into killing pens during the chaos.

I do not expect the fall from such heights to be as disastrous as befell the dinosaurs. But looking back on the present from a century in the future, it might look like the decline of the British or earlier Spanish empires. I am optimistic that civilization has well enough integrated into the fabric of everyday human life all over this planet that the fall will not be anything as serious as the Fall of the Roman Empire, relative to the size of the known world.

[c1ue]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

I just want to point out that in the last devaluation - the exit of the US from Bretton Woods and freeing the US$ from any commodity peg - also saw the oil shock a mere Presidential term later.

The neat thing about having a commodity everyone needs is that you can just change the unit numbers you're pricing in to reflect the amount you wish to receive.

The massive jump in oil prices in the mid 70s was one such example.

[Tulpen]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Well SOME ONE IS BUYING!

Bullion direct is now officialy SOLD OUT of MAPLES, they were in stock YESTERDAY.

So no GOLD, SILVER, Plat, Palladium COINAGE AVAILABLE ANYWHERE.

SOME ONE is EITHER incredibly smart or increadibly stupid.

Guess we will see soon.

Looking at the website it seems they have severe logistical issues. Also I did not get a positive impression about their customer support levels, for instance it states:

Communication Delays

Due to unprecedented activity we are currently running weeks behind on many aspects of our business. Order Status questions regarding orders that are less than 3 weeks old will likely not be answered in a timely manner. Order Status questions regarding orders containing product with a "Delayed" designation may not be addressed for 6+ weeks from the order date. For general updates on the status or our operations please visit our weekly update on our forum.

Also this statement at least raised questions in my mind

f. Storage. Title to commodities purchased by Customer shall pass to Customer upon delivery to Customer, Customer's appointed agent or designee or to Depository to be held for Customer. Commodities transferred to Depository for Customer will be delivered as an undivided share of a fungible lot and held in safekeeping on a fungible basis with the commodities of other Depository Customers. Upon delivery of commodities for Customer to Depository, Customer will receive title to an undivided share of the commodities so held. Notwithstanding the passage of title to Customer, Bullion Direct® may use or act as if it were the owner of the commodity held for Customer. Customer understands that such usage of the commodities so held may result in gains or losses, which will belong solely to Bullion Direct®.

Also, I did not find much usefull information about the company itself, I did not find the name of a single person, there is not even a phone number except for a one-way number that translates incoming phone messages into an email message!
How big is this company? What kind of volumes do they handle? Do they purchase the gold in various configurations at the spot price as soon as the order was made? Not saying it happens but it does not take a lot of imagination for being tempted to delay shipments on falling prices when you locked in a higher price.

After visiting the website I was left with more questions than answers.

[Guest]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Tulpen -

This is the weird and thought provoking thing that's going on. You can get this same dysfunctional syndrome reported from dealers worldwide right now. Seriously. Not all of them, but a great majority apparently. Now look around and notice we have an extraordinarily precarious international situation. it does not take much to put two and two together. Right or wrong, these can quite easily turn out to be the outlier events that describe a potentially much larger bid on precious metals. People are not coldly reasoning. Many are instinctive. But it is the "collective intelligence" that one needs to think long and carefully about, because some serious shit is brewing globally in monetary aspects. Either all of these people are wrong, or they are all right, but whatever it is, they sure are thinking and acting collectively in growing numbers.

Looking at the website it seems they have severe logistical issues. Also I did not get a positive impression about their customer support levels, for instance it states:

Communication Delays

Due to unprecedented activity we are currently running weeks behind on many aspects of our business. Order Status questions regarding orders that are less than 3 weeks old will likely not be answered in a timely manner. Order Status questions regarding orders containing product with a "Delayed" designation may not be addressed for 6+ weeks from the order date. For general updates on the status or our operations please visit our weekly update on our forum.

Also, I did not find much usefull information about the company itself, I did not find the name of a single person, there is not even a phone number except for a one-way number that translates incoming phone messages into an email message!

How big is this company? What kind of volumes do they handle? Do they purchase the gold in various configurations at the spot price as soon as the order was made? Not saying it happens but it does not take a lot of imagination for being tempted to delay shipments on falling prices when you locked in a higher price.

After visiting the website I was left with more questions than answers.

[Andreuccio]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Looking at the website it seems they have severe logistical issues. Also I did not get a positive impression about their customer support levels, for instance it states:

Communication Delays

Due to unprecedented activity we are currently running weeks behind on many aspects of our business. Order Status questions regarding orders that are less than 3 weeks old will likely not be answered in a timely manner. Order Status questions regarding orders containing product with a "Delayed" designation may not be addressed for 6+ weeks from the order date. For general updates on the status or our operations please visit our weekly update on our forum.

Also this statement at least raised questions in my mind

f. Storage. Title to commodities purchased by Customer shall pass to Customer upon delivery to Customer, Customer's appointed agent or designee or to Depository to be held for Customer. Commodities transferred to Depository for Customer will be delivered as an undivided share of a fungible lot and held in safekeeping on a fungible basis with the commodities of other Depository Customers. Upon delivery of commodities for Customer to Depository, Customer will receive title to an undivided share of the commodities so held. Notwithstanding the passage of title to Customer, Bullion Direct® may use or act as if it were the owner of the commodity held for Customer. Customer understands that such usage of the commodities so held may result in gains or losses, which will belong solely to Bullion Direct®.

Also, I did not find much usefull information about the company itself, I did not find the name of a single person, there is not even a phone number except for a one-way number that translates incoming phone messages into an email message!
How big is this company? What kind of volumes do they handle? Do they purchase the gold in various configurations at the spot price as soon as the order was made? Not saying it happens but it does not take a lot of imagination for being tempted to delay shipments on falling prices when you locked in a higher price.

After visiting the website I was left with more questions than answers.

Bullion Direct has a forum I found which was illuminating. There are answers to some of the questions we have had regarding PM delays.

I read two posts from " Charles McAllister, President/CEO" on October 14 and 17, here: http://forum.bulliondirect.com/viewtopic.php?t=1805, and here http://forum.bulliondirect.com/viewt...6efaa7323a01f0.

It's pretty interesting. He goes through how the delays are affecting different areas of the business:

CUSTOMER SERVICE
Help Desk:
Delayed – overwhelmed, multiple emails add to the problem.

ACCOUNTING
Credit Card Processing:
100% information match – 3-5 business days
Incomplete shipping address match – 3-? business days (usually requires customer follow up with Credit Card Bank)

He discusses a variety of different products and how each of them are being affected:

SICM001 - Silver Canadian Maples have been a tricky product this year. The Royal Canadian Mint has been very unreliable with there production. Adding to the problem has been that they "back-tracked" from their commitments due to mechanical failures, over-capacity, etc. This has greatly affected our operations this year.

The good news is that we anticipate receiving 2009s starting in November and continue to absorb existing supplies of other dated maples in the secondary market. We are pretty close to being back on track despite the RCM's problems. Product Draws are caught up when considering Processing Delays.

SIB999:0001:MX - Mexican Silver Onzas/Libertads are currently affected by Trade Defaults. We expect to be shipping affected Pre-October Release Date orders by next week. Beneficial product swaps, shipping credits, or buybacks are being offered as an incentive. Please keep in mind that you can still sell this item on Nucleo.

There are comments about industry-wide slowdowns and their causes:

Additionally, private manufacturers are also operating beyond capacity. 1oz., 10oz., and 100oz. Silver bars are particularly affected by these production delays. This added flow of physical metal and physical cash (by the Fed injecting into the banking system) has also caused delays in armored, secure transportation. These industry wide delays have affected our operation and ability to process even basic orders in a timely matter.

And finally, a bit of the dilemma faced by the PM business in dealing with a surge like this:

Please know that we are working extremely hard to fill the most orders possible while maintaining our standards for quality and accuracy. Due to security issues, the logistical requirements in handling precious metals don't lend itself to simply adding temp labor. Although we have steadily increased our staff and optimized our operations, it is impossible and unrealistic to staff for these types of surges.

We are faced with a dilemma every day. Should we continue selling products that are delayed or potentially delayed? It would be easier to discontinue selling altogether, but most of our customers prefer the option to lock in a price, understanding the delay and understanding our commitment to continue to deliver high quality products. We understand the fear and instability in the financial marketplace – and the stress that this brings. We continue to ask for your patience and understanding while we work through these historic times. I will continue to post updates here once a week (every Friday).

[jtabeb]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Bullion Direct has a forum I found which was illuminating. There are answers to some of the questions we have had regarding PM delays.

I read two posts from " Charles McAllister, President/CEO" on October 14 and 17, here: http://forum.bulliondirect.com/viewtopic.php?t=1805, and here http://forum.bulliondirect.com/viewt...6efaa7323a01f0.

It's pretty interesting. He goes through how the delays are affecting different areas of the business:



He discusses a variety of different products and how each of them are being affected:



There are comments about industry-wide slowdowns and their causes:



And finally, a bit of the dilemma faced by the PM business in dealing with a surge like this:

They are a GREAT company IMHO. I done all my buisness with them for the last 6 years and have NEVER had a problem with them. The best part about them is YOU KNOW if it is in their catalog you can get it. Unlike kitco they tell you if you are buying a (DELAYED) product. If it ain't in they don't put it in there. And to prove it, look at their catalog, they ain't got squat right now. At least they are honest and hardworking, not sure I'd say the same thing about kitco.

[mfyahya]

Re: When (will) Gold recover?

Well SOME ONE IS BUYING!

Bullion direct is now officialy SOLD OUT of MAPLES, they were in stock YESTERDAY.

So no GOLD, SILVER, Plat, Palladium COINAGE AVAILABLE ANYWHERE.

SOME ONE is EITHER incredibly smart or increadibly stupid.

Guess we will see soon.

I can buy 100gram and 10 tola (116.6g) bars from wholesalers in Dubai gold souq with immediate delivery at the current spot price. They were out of 1kg silver bars though. Couldn't find them any where.

Retail sales are doing well here