IMF reports

[friendly_jacek]

Does anyone follow the IMF reports?
It's a hard read, but sounds like the main concepts in the recent IMF documents are consistent with the iTulip's teaching. The Figure 1.15 in the 2008 World Economic Outlook illustrates well what is happening now.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...1/pdf/text.pdf
The only problem I have is deciphering the US real exchange rate figure (left lower corner box. Can someone help me with that?
There was an interesting conclusion from analysis of trade imbalance: dollar was fairly valued in April 2008 (box 1.2). Did this precipitate the bounce in oversold USD?

[idianov]

Re: IMF reports

IMF is forecasting Sudden Stop in the case of significant financial shock in 2009:

IMF2008Scenarios.JPG

And the World Economy is getting it:

BDI.jpg

Effective Fed rate is under 1%:

FED Funds.jpg

[Chomsky]

Re: IMF reports

Sorry, newbie, would it be possible to spell out the conclusions that are supposed to be self-evident?

[idianov]

Re: IMF reports

Sorry, newbie, would it be possible to spell out the conclusions that are supposed to be self-evident?

At the heart of iTulip's investment thesis is KA-POOM theory.

The world is getting dis-inflationary shock (KA) with all assets going down. The collapse in world-wide commodity shipping rates is the evidence of the sudden collapse in real economy demand. The rates will go to 0%

The KA phase will be followed by US Dollar depreciation phase (POOM) and lots of inflation from rising prices of imported goods and energy. The FED then will try to remove liquidity by raising rates from zero.

[Chomsky]

Re: IMF reports

Sorry, I know that. I meant what part of the above graphs shows evidence for the Sudden Stop (capital flight, right?)? The first and third figures I get (clearly look Ka-Poomy), but not the second.