65% chance the DEMS will take over congress

[blazespinnaker]

How do you think this will impact the macroeconomic picture if they do?

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

(you may have to click on politics -> US 06 GOP Control)

[BK]

Re: 65% chance the DEMS - look to New Jersey

Perhaps New Jersey is a good example of when the Dems control things. We have a projected $5 Billion short fall in our Budget.
They are closing the Budget gap by raising the sales tax. New Jersey has some of the highest Real Estate Taxes.
Does anyone here believe that Dems will take a different fiscal strategy than Republicans?

[jk]

Re: 65% chance the DEMS will take over congress

assuming the dems take at least one house of congress, they will remain at odds with the white house. gridlock will freeze current fiscal policies. if bush tax cuts have not been made permanent, they will likely sunset, but i'm not up on the state of play for these items. the estate tax will remain in force, albeit with the current large exemptions.

the most interesting change if the dems take a house is that they will have subpoena power to look into all the no-bid contracts etc that the bush administration awarded re both iraq and katrina. there will be investigations galore, which will both shine needed illumination on previously secret dealings, and provide much entertainment and education for those inclined to pay attention.

[WDCRob]

Re: 65% chance the DEMS will take over congress

I don't think the Dems will have much, if any, proactive power even if they take back both houses of Congress. But as JK says, they'll gridlock things pretty effectively and IMO that's a big step forward.

Longer term...they claim that they'll reinstitute the pay/go system where all increases in spending have to be offset by increases in revenue.

While I'm skeptical that's where their heart is, I think that with mostly oppositional power (i.e. they don't have to walk the talk) they'll be more likely to stick to their guns vs the free spending Bush and create a scenario where a balanced budget really does become a plank in the Dem's platform for 2008.

How that'd actually plays out afterwards I have no idea, but it's hard to imagine Democrats failing to spend in the face of an economic downturn.

[Finster]

Re: 65% chance the DEMS will take over congress

How do you think this will impact the macroeconomic picture if they do?

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

(you may have to click on politics -> US 06 GOP Control)

I don't think it's even worth considering how it will affect the macroeconomic picture. Seems like the only options any more are big-spending Democrats or big-spending Republicans. Two faces of the same oligarchy.

Not to mention being concerned about nothing more than someone's opinion based on public opinion polls. My guess is the rumors are somewhat exaggerated by wishful thinking among the Democrat-dominated media. Imagine how frustrated they must have felt when Foley promptly resigned. Done had to go and dig up some new villains to keep the story in everybody's face.

Best realistic outcome would be if the Republicans hold on to the majority, but just barely. Don't count on anything good coming from a House dominated by Pelosi, Frank, and Rangel. As an investor, no matter how modest of means, you will be targeted as "rich" and ripe for pillage. Get ready for yet more special favors for "victims" of every imaginable demographic group.

At the same time, the Republicans need to be taken to the woodshed. After spending their forty years in the wilderness complaining about the growth of government, the first chance they get to control the agenda they grow it even more. They drag us into an expensive, tragic, and futile war. Pity the poor voter who thought they were getting another Ronald Reagan, and wound up with another Lyndon Johnson instead. Meanwhile, while our armies are scattered across far-flung corners of the globe "spreading freedom", we are losing it at home, and while we are defending other nations’ borders, our own are crumbling. They've callously disregarded the public's cries for getting control of our out-of control immigration problem while pandering to their big-money business patrons' demands for yet more cheap labor. Today, while our highways, schools, hospitals, and power infrastructure can barely handle the people already here, we already have to import most of our energy and other foundations of our lifestyle from overseas, and we have to repeatedly tighten our belts to keep our environment the way we like, we "celebrate" our passage of the 300,000,000 population mark.

Third party, anyone?

[blazespinnaker]

Re: 65% chance the DEMS will take over congress

I don't think the Dems will have much, if any, proactive power even if they take back both houses of Congress. But as JK says, they'll gridlock things pretty effectively and IMO that's a big step forward.

Longer term...they claim that they'll reinstitute the pay/go system where all increases in spending have to be offset by increases in revenue.

While I'm skeptical that's where their heart is, I think that with mostly oppositional power (i.e. they don't have to walk the talk) they'll be more likely to stick to their guns vs the free spending Bush and create a scenario where a balanced budget really does become a plank in the Dem's platform for 2008.

How that'd actually plays out afterwards I have no idea, but it's hard to imagine Democrats failing to spend in the face of an economic downturn.

Yes, if hilary gets in on 2008 I wonder how much she'll borrow from her husband's playbook.

I really work in two scenarios:

McCain gets in, he'll be innovative and probably call for sacrifice. I see him being Jimmy Carter II and just a 4 year president.

If Hillary gets in, I believe she'll be a somewhat more hawkish, right of center version of her husband, though a big supporter of abortion rights. It's interesting to note that Hillary comes from a republican background.

I think your analysis is dead on, though, that they might utilize the house as a stepping stone to the presidency in 2008.

I wonder if they'll win the senate, the numbers are starting to look much worse there for the republicans as well.

[WDCRob]

Re: 65% chance the DEMS will take over congress

I think your analysis is dead on, though, that they might utilize the house as a stepping stone to the presidency in 2008.

I wonder if they'll win the senate, the numbers are starting to look much worse there for the republicans as well.

The funny thing about speeches like George Miller's (linked on the home page via YouTube) is that if you say them often enough they tend to work their way into party dogma. And, contrary to late-night talk show monologues, politicians tend to dance with they one they brung. At least until the lights go down and it's time to go home.

#s on Tradesports right now...

66% chance of Dem House; 33% chance of Dem Senate. But I think that's pricing in the Republicans' penchant for closing the deal, and I don't expect they'll have much to work with this time. Krazy Kim's Nukes; Foley; Hastert; Weldon; Sen Craig (whisper whisper) -- Iraq's not the only place the casualties are piling up.

The Hog is in the Tunnel, as the late great Hunter Thompson might have said.