Searching for the Center of Gravity

[Verrocchio]

John Mauldin's Outside the Box edition for October 16, 2008, features guest George Freidman from Stratfor. Freidman disavows any deep knowledge of economics but holds that the Stratfor focus on geopolitics depends on the dimensions of economics, war and politics. The excerpts below sum up his take on the current financial turmoil and his conclusion.

Geopolitics is the search for the center of gravity of reality, those overwhelming forces that drive the system in the direction it is going to take. These forces are never solely political, military or economic in nature.

In our analysis of the current financial crisis in the United States -- and the world as a whole -- we have sought the center of gravity of the problem. We approached that simply by asking one question: is what is going on simply another inflection point in the business cycles that have occurred since World War II, or does it represent a systemic failure such as that which happened during the Great Depression?

…we concluded that the economy was moving into a recession but that the recession would not break the framework of the postwar economy, although clearly the degree of government intervention will reshape the financial markets.


Read the entire commentary here.



Unlike most iTulipers, Freidman has taken into account the political and military dimensions, as well as the economic. Is this broader view of the current events responsible for his much milder prediction? Or, has he failed to find the true center of gravity?

[World Traveler]

Re: Searching for the Center of Gravity

Immanuel Wallerstein, a distinguished and famous academic now in his '80's, and respected for his big picture analysis, says the days of U.S. hegemony are over and that we are entering a multi-polar world, one that is inherently less stable, as nations jockey for position and influence. The U.S. will still be a major player, but it will no longer be able to dictate the rules of the game.

He publishes bi-monthly at Fernand Braundel Center, Bingham University. From his Oct 15 missive, which is short and worth reading, as are all his bi-monthly articles:

"... In terms of the hegemonic cycles, the United States was a rising contender for hegemony as of 1873, achieved full hegemonic dominance in 1945, and has been slowly declining since the 1970s.

George W. Bush's follies have transformed a slow decline into a precipitate one.

And as of now, we are past any semblance of U.S. hegemony. We have entered, as normally happens, a multipolar world. The United States remains a strong power, perhaps still the strongest, but it will continue to decline relative to other powers in the decades to come. There is not much that anyone can do to change this..."

http://www.binghamton.edu/fbc/commentr.htm

His background:

He attended Columbia University, where he received a B.A. in 1951, an M.A. in 1954 and a Ph.D. degree in 1959, and subsequently taught until 1971, when he became professor of sociology at McGill University. As of 1976, he served as distinguished professor of sociology at Binghamton University (SUNY) until his retirement in 1999, and as head of the Fernand Braudel Center for the Study of Economies, Historical Systems and Civilization until 2005. Wallerstein held several positions as visiting professor at universities worldwide, was awarded multiple honorary titles, intermittently served as Directeur d'études associé at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales in Paris, and was president of the International Sociological Association between 1994 and 1998.

[c1ue]

Re: Searching for the Center of Gravity

George Friedman and Stratfor are fine for geopolitical analysis.

Anytime anything economics or markets related comes out of their mouths, beware.

[don]

Re: Searching for the Center of Gravity

Immanuel Wallerstein, a distinguished and famous academic now in his '80's, and respected for his big picture analysis, says the days of U.S. hegemony are over and that we are entering a multi-polar world, one that is inherently less stable, as nations jockey for position and influence. The U.S. will still be a major player, but it will no longer be able to dictate the rules of the game.

He publishes bi-monthly at Fernand Braundel Center, Bingham University. From his Oct 15 missive, which is short and worth reading, as are all his bi-monthly articles:

"... In terms of the hegemonic cycles, the United States was a rising contender for hegemony as of 1873, achieved full hegemonic dominance in 1945, and has been slowly declining since the 1970s.

George W. Bush's follies have transformed a slow decline into a precipitate one.

And as of now, we are past any semblance of U.S. hegemony. We have entered, as normally happens, a multipolar world. The United States remains a strong power, perhaps still the strongest, but it will continue to decline relative to other powers in the decades to come. There is not much that anyone can do to change this..."

http://www.binghamton.edu/fbc/commentr.htm

His background:

He attended Columbia University, where he received a B.A. in 1951, an M.A. in 1954 and a Ph.D. degree in 1959, and subsequently taught until 1971, when he became professor of sociology at McGill University. As of 1976, he served as distinguished professor of sociology at Binghamton University (SUNY) until his retirement in 1999, and as head of the Fernand Braudel Center for the Study of Economies, Historical Systems and Civilization until 2005. Wallerstein held several positions as visiting professor at universities worldwide, was awarded multiple honorary titles, intermittently served as Directeur d'études associé at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales in Paris, and was president of the International Sociological Association between 1994 and 1998.

Wallerstein has proven solid on the macro stuff. I've read him for at least 15 years. Here's another quote from the piece you reference that addresses several other popular iTulip queries:

"As for our immediate short-run ad interim prospects, it is clear what is happening everywhere. We have been moving into a protectionist world (forget about so-called globalization). We have been moving into a much larger direct role of government in production. Even the United States and Great Britain are partially nationalizing the banks and the dying big industries. We are moving into populist government-led redistribution, which can take left-of-center social-democratic forms or far right authoritarian forms. And we are moving into acute social conflict within states, as everyone competes over the smaller pie. In the short-run, it is not, by and large, a pretty picture." )italics are mine- the guys sanguine, if nothing else. May be his age. Suppose he's seen it all.)

I posted the entire piece a few days ago on the "Not a Crisis, an epiphany" thread.

His books are as good as his essays. Nothing turgid, you're left wanting more.