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ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

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  • ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

    Emphasis in the body is mine

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...apitalism.html

    ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism



    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 9:23AM BST 16 Oct 2008




    "The ECB is doing whatever it takes to unclog the interbank market," said Gilles Moec, from Bank of America, who described the move as "spectacular" volte-face and a belated recognition that the credit crisis is deadly serious.
    The monetary blitz was welcomed in Brussels, where EU leaders were meeting yet again, just days after agreeing to the most comprehensive bank bail-out in history. "We are not at the end of the crisis, we are still living in dangerous times," said Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg premier and Eurogroup chair.
    He issued a stark reminder that life is going be very different for the banking elite as governments move to restore the lost discipline of the Bretton Woods financial order and attempt to "civilise" capitalism, the code word for clamping down on the City – dubbed "the Casino" in Europe.
    "Let everyone remember after this crisis, who solved it. Politicians did, not bankers," he said. Mr Juncker added that this episode would have a profound effect on the euro debate in Britain.
    "The British prime minister had to beg to be let into the room. I'm sure that when the storm is over, the British will think about whether they shouldn't become an equal in all decision-making bodies."
    German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück echoed the warning. "When a fire's burning in the global financial markets, it has to be put out, even if it's a case of arson. But then the arsonists have to be held responsible, and spreading flames must be outlawed.''
    In a key change, the ECB is providing unlimited liquidity for longer-term loans to force down the market rates used to price mortgages in the Eurozone. The aim is to help banks pass along last week's half-point cut in interest rates before the region's economy starts to seize up altogether.
    The standard for collateral has been slashed from A- to the once unthinkable level of BBB-, allowing distressed banks to offload securities that cannot be sold on the open market. It greatly widens the range of instruments and – crucially – lets banks use their dollar assets for the first time.
    The radical shift in policy suggests that the ECB is now deeply alarmed by the crunch facing European banks as a violent unwinding of debt leverage across the world forces them to repay huge sums in dollars.
    Goldman Sachs estimates that non-US banks have liabilities of $12 trillion (£6.8 trillion) on dollar balance sheets. The European, British, and Swiss banks make up the lion's share, and they have used leverage far more aggressively than US banks. Analysts say the European banks will need to raise $400bn in fresh capital – no easy feat at a time when burned investors are keeping their distance.

  • #2
    Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard had made much of Europe's supposed inability to coordinate large-scale intervention. Thus far, events do not seem to support the theory that the EU will be paralyzed by political disunity.

    What say you other Europe-watchers? Is this the crisis that necessitates closer political union, or the crisis that exposes the weakness of the political union? Did we really see coordinated European action, or beggar-thy-neighbor national policies (e.g. blanket deposit guarantees for banks) which had to be duplicated -- but which were spun as coordinated action? (Thanks to c1ue for pointing out this interpretation.) So far we have bold moves, but the costs of those moves have not yet been born -- might they not be born unequally?

    It seems obvious to me that the period of stress is far from over, so we won't know the definitive answers for quite some time.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

      apparently this money that is thrown by the trillion comes from politicians and not anyone else. Good to know who is paying for all this :rolleyes:

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

        [quote=ASH;54887] Did we really see coordinated European action, or beggar-thy-neighbor national policies (e.g. blanket deposit guarantees for banks) which had to be duplicated -- but which were spun as coordinated action?



        Hate to be a pooper, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. The only solution that was avaiable was the one that was adopted, that's what is important and why I'm hopeful.

        To me it doesn't matter if teh powers that be do the RIGHT thing for the RIGHT reason, or the RIGHT thing for the WRONG reason. As long as the RIGHT thing is the one that gets done, there is strong reason to beleive that the outcome will be postive.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

          IMHO the money came from the banksters & the "insurance" salesman (for the swaps & related derivatives) and the money creation is now being rubber-stamped by the politicos at the point of a gun.

          Originally posted by grapejelly View Post
          apparently this money that is thrown by the trillion comes from politicians and not anyone else. Good to know who is paying for all this :rolleyes:

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

            [quote=jtabeb;54896]
            Originally posted by ASH View Post
            Did we really see coordinated European action, or beggar-thy-neighbor national policies (e.g. blanket deposit guarantees for banks) which had to be duplicated -- but which were spun as coordinated action?
            Originally posted by ASH View Post



            Hate to be a pooper, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. The only solution that was avaiable was the one that was adopted, that's what is important and why I'm hopeful.

            To me it doesn't matter if teh powers that be do the RIGHT thing for the RIGHT reason, or the RIGHT thing for the WRONG reason. As long as the RIGHT thing is the one that gets done, there is strong reason to beleive that the outcome will be postive.
            And why do you think that shovelling "good" money by the tankerful into the absolute worst performing part of the economy - banking - while all other more efficient sectors are starved of capital and forced into collapse, is the RIGHT solution?

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

              [quote=GRG55;54982]
              Originally posted by jtabeb View Post

              And why do you think that shovelling "good" money by the tankerful into the absolute worst performing part of the economy - banking - while all other more efficient sectors are starved of capital and forced into collapse, is the RIGHT solution?
              Until banks have risk-free capital, LIBOR will not go down.

              LIBOR LIBOR LIBOR... and we still have more credit shocks ahead. I'd advise against anyone getting long yet.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

                [quote=phirang;54991]
                Originally posted by GRG55 View Post

                Until banks have risk-free capital, LIBOR will not go down.

                LIBOR LIBOR LIBOR... and we still have more credit shocks ahead. I'd advise against anyone getting long yet.
                Yep...the operation was a success. Too bad the patient died.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

                  Once again, I note that the actions in Europe could be part of two different strategies:

                  1) The containment of US based MBS crap
                  2) The restart of European FIRE economies in the PIGS (and UK)

                  The true test will be when the 'shock and awe' interventions fail: in 2 to 6 months, perhaps a year or so, inflation will start rising.

                  Because the subtext of this whole deal is that Europe and the UK don't have a reserve currency. This money they're throwing around is being printed. And will have an effect.

                  Time will tell.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

                    Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                    Once again, I note that the actions in Europe could be part of two different strategies:

                    1) The containment of US based MBS crap
                    2) The restart of European FIRE economies in the PIGS (and UK)

                    The true test will be when the 'shock and awe' interventions fail: in 2 to 6 months, perhaps a year or so, inflation will start rising.

                    Because the subtext of this whole deal is that Europe and the UK don't have a reserve currency. This money they're throwing around is being printed. And will have an effect.

                    Time will tell.
                    C1ue, if you are willing, would you mind expanding on this a little? How are the BOE and ECB trying to achieve 1) and 2)?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

                      Originally posted by ASH View Post
                      Ambrose Evans-Pritchard had made much of Europe's supposed inability to coordinate large-scale intervention. Thus far, events do not seem to support the theory that the EU will be paralyzed by political disunity.
                      The Telegraph represents a British Eurosceptic point-of-view, in which the EU will either fall apart or else consolidate and destroy freedom, democracy, and capitalism. There doesn't seem to be much room in between :p

                      What say you other Europe-watchers? Is this the crisis that necessitates closer political union, or the crisis that exposes the weakness of the political union?
                      I find it pretty hard to see the political union being threatened because it is too deeply embedded at this point. Monetary union is much younger and could be a different question.

                      It seems obvious to me that the period of stress is far from over, so we won't know the definitive answers for quite some time.
                      Agreed, we won't know until we see the full reaction to the oncoming recession. Several govts will need to expand their fiscal deficits. How much will Germany be willing to put up with? Quite a lot, I would guess. But we live in exceptional times...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: ECB goes nuclear as EU leaders plan to 'civilise' capitalism

                        There are two problems (at least) facing the EU today - much as what faces the US:

                        1) What to do with existing bad debt from real estate bubble
                        2) How to restart the economy - FIRE or otherwise

                        The PIGS and the UK need both, particularly restarting their FIRE economies, but the 'northern' European nations primarily need 1).

                        Of course, it is not so simple - when your neighbor starts attacking your deposit base with tactics like guaranteeing bank deposits, you must defend yourself.

                        Thus I am closely scrutinizing the details of what Europe winds up doing in the context of both 1) and 2); clearly the UK is going whole hog.

                        Why is it possible to only do 1) and not 2)? Because the northern European nations both generate positive income from export and also have economies not built on real estate prices.

                        Having income means the northern Europeans could potentially just 'hang' long enough for the UK/PIGS to start significantly down the inflation path due to the massive obligations being taken on by their governments - at which point further government FIRE related interventions lose effect.

                        Again, just a theory.

                        Comment

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