Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

[jtabeb]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

For those that read this as a mea culpa, you are correct. For some time I have been more optimistic than others, particularly jk, but the events of this past weekend and this week-so-far have been stunningly disappointing. Instead of using the strongest sectors of the US economy as a foundation to rebuild it, political interests have effectively smashed what is left of "Main Street" because they simply cannot imagine a universe without banking at its epicentre. The two Presidential candidates are completely clueless as to the consequences of what is happening around them, and that doesn't bode well for the US or the ROW, regardless of how the vote goes in November.

I could not disagree more strenuously. Of course they are going to fuck it up before they get it right, did you think that they were going to do the right thing right off the bat? They will only do the right thing when they see that it is the only alternative. They are starting to see this. I'm more optimistic now than I have been in the last 5 years.

I think it was FRED that said that "we will do the right thing, after all other options have been exhausted".

The process of exhausting options is what we are doing now, that means we are CLOSER to doing the right thing, not farther away from it.

[Guest]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

Fred -

If multiple countries and economic zones go into a prolonged and severe turmoil as in 1998 but with aftershocks lasting for as much as 2-3 years, this could result in the USD (and US equities markets after this shakeout!) maintaining top relative strength even for 2-3 years here? Is that a true or false potential premise? If it's a false premise, can iTulip unpack that idea for us?

So why is the dollar strengthening if capital flows are reversing? Shouldn't we be "Poom" ing? In a word: de-leveraging. Dollars are being purchased in Europe. At the same time leveraged commodity positions are being unwound. If the Ka-Poom Thesis holds up, eventually weak dollar demand overwhelms the impact of falling commodity demand.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

more of this
I said this would happen,,,,
japs liquidate!!!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081016.RWILLIS16/TPStory/Business

STREETWISE: JOINT VENTURES

Uranium deal a sign of things to come

ANDREW WILLIS

October 16, 2008
A new normal is emerging at resource companies, as mine operators such as Uranium One opt to partner up in order to bring Australian mines into production.


Uranium One struck a deal yesterday that will see Mitsui & Co., Japan's second-largest trading company, pay $72-million for a 49-per-cent stake in the Canadian company's six Australian properties.
This deal concludes a process that began last May, when Uranium One hired investment bank Rothschild to find partners that could share in the risk of developing a mine with a relatively short life span of six years. The first of the Australian sites, which include the Honeymoon mine, are expected to be operational in 2010. Uranium One has access to capital, as it recently struck a $100-million revolving credit facility with Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia. But company executives decided sharing development risks with a deep-pocketed partner was a better strategy.

Note...it's a CANADIAN Co owns the mine and they get a JAPANESE partner.....no savings around in good ole Aus to develop our own f....ing mine!!!! Grrrrrrrrr...and it's a paltry $79M
I take it your point is ...Japs using their USD....mate they are sitting on bazillions of Aussie dollars! Most of the borrowings Aus made from Japan were, somewhat fortunately in the short term, in Aussie dollars!

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

Yes labasta the same thought ran through my head...low Aussie....big debts....CAD needing USD to keep buying what we can't afford....the Chinese and japs will buy all the reources for a song. I keep trying to tell everyone the Asians think in decades.
About 16 years ago a friend of mine was in Japan on business...coal here in Aus was ridiculously cheap at the time. He saw these ships unlaoding coal into the water and asked what was going on. The reply ' well coal is ridiculously cheap right now...later it will be very expensive, so we are making land from it, put up some warehousing, wait 20 years when coal is expensive, tear down the 'cheap' warehousing and use the coal.'
I will never forget that story as long as I live.

[bill]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

Note...it's a CANADIAN Co owns the mine and they get a JAPANESE partner.....no savings around in good ole Aus to develop our own f....ing mine!!!! Grrrrrrrrr...and it's a paltry $79M
I take it your point is ...Japs using their USD....mate they are sitting on bazillions of Aussie dollars! Most of the borrowings Aus made from Japan were, somewhat fortunately in the short term, in Aussie dollars!

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=9713#post9713

04-29-07, 12:49 PM The stock market has continued to climb keeping the yen weak (yen carry trade). The market has only experience a few dry runs of corrections, may be a test of the market or to build it higher (I wish I had the inside info). It may be a political attached reason and or the market formula is not ready, but when it pulls back I do believe it will be fast and furious. As EJ put it, this is a very hard call as to when. The Japanese yen carry trade has allowed companies to leverage and create a lot of resource development that would be easy to pick up on the cheap during KA. The Japanese investments would not just be limited to resources during KA but I do think it will be a primary one.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

Lukester

Just a random thought floated through the mind of this idiot a little while ago. Proabably totally incorrect. My problem is I don't quite understand in exactly what form all the USD are held by Japan and China.
Coceivably, if it is their long term plan to use all these dollars to buy up US resource, Ag land, and industry....then indeed the USD would stay very strong.
IMHO...just a thought
Then if you say...you dirty rotten little filthy Asian scum are not allowed to buy good ole USA then....you might get told to park your aircraft carriers becuase your dollar is so low you can't afford the port fees, let alone the fuel!

Just a thought

[phirang]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

Lukester

Just a random thought floated through the mind of this idiot a little while ago. Proabably totally incorrect. My problem is I don't quite understand in exactly what form all the USD are held by Japan and China.
Coceivably, if it is their long term plan to use all these dollars to buy up US resource, Ag land, and industry....then indeed the USD would stay very strong.
IMHO...just a thought
Then if you say...you dirty rotten little filthy Asian scum are not allowed to buy good ole USA then....you might get told to park your aircraft carriers becuase your dollar is so low you can't afford the port fees, let alone the fuel!

Just a thought

Considering they just upped their ownership of BX to the max allowed, it's most likely the former...

[marvenger]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

awesome, that's increadibly smart, we were probably paying for the shipping and unloading costs too!

[marvenger]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

I like your optimism jtabeb but i'm not convinced. This crisis is a great opportunity for concentration of power and there are going to be many that will want to grab it. There needs to be an uprising by the people to repeal the presidents executive powers and restore the constitution, I don't know if the american people are ready for the pain and uncertainty this will cause, they may have chosen the protection their president provides and by the time it gets bad enough that the president isn't the guy in the people's minds anymore its going to be even harder to get back towards the constitution.

[jtabeb]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

I like your optimism jtabeb but i'm not convinced.

You don't have to be convinced, just open minded. Don't go looking for a disaster only to be disappointed that you didn't find one.

[laphroaig]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

I think it was FRED that said that "we will do the right thing, after all other options have been exhausted".

Either FRED.... or Winston Churchill. Either way there's likely some truth in it.

http://history-and-education.blogspo...-research.html

[FRED]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

Either FRED.... or Winston Churchill. Either way there's likely some truth in it.

http://history-and-education.blogspo...-research.html

No, not I...

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

You don't have to be convinced, just open minded. Don't go looking for a disaster only to be disappointed that you didn't find one.

Is it Ocham's Razor "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity"

[metalman]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

No, not I...

thing is they've worked through the first have dozen obvious asshat responses in as many months. the remaining few bailouts may not even last as long nor work so well.

[Verrocchio]

Re: Any news on when KA transitions to POOM?

I could not disagree more strenuously. Of course they are going to fuck it up before they get it right, did you think that they were going to do the right thing right off the bat? They will only do the right thing when they see that it is the only alternative. They are starting to see this. I'm more optimistic now than I have been in the last 5 years.

Let's see if I have this right. You're optimistic because The Powers That Be are making the wrong moves.

Would your outlook have been gloomy if TPTB had done something right, instead?