Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

[grapejelly]

Today the gold stocks were up, way way up. Is this the bottom finally????

Ugh.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

They didn't go up in Aus! And still going down today!

[dbarberic]

Re: gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

My Fidelity gold mining fund is up 12% today.

[Guest]

Re: gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Outback - I'm reading that the USD relative strength can persist for a surprisingly long time (Jack Crooks, and two or three others are hinting at "years"!). Now that may or may not be the case. It won't be correct of course, if EJ is right, and I'd hesitate to bet against EJ. Obviously the thesis is based not on inherent dollar strength but a prolonged period of all other currencies weakness.

I'm reading forecasts for a low number on the AUS > USD exchange rate that frankly you just don't want to hear about. Your regional currencies should (e.g. your sourcing currency for your import business) should remain much more moderate vs. the AUS according to this scenario.

But the take away for Australians is clear as day if this scenario holds - you can do very well indeed in local purchasing power in the next couple of years just holding gold bullion. And that's a great risk-adjusted investment too in the macro picture more likely than not.

AUS weakness vs. gold strength (for you guys - likely much less for us!) can make up for any losses in the small cap precious metal stocks that this vicious market has dealt us. If I were down under I'd get loaded for bear in gold bullion and look for a shocking realignment between AUS > USD.

You can profit tidiliy from that mate. Pay off the house mortgage entirely on the proceeds, or whatever if you have a significant chunk of cash to commit to the gold. BTW, do they have any bears in Australia? Or is it just the talking bears who log on here at iTulip?

I read something horrifying about the Australian "drop bears", the ones that drop out of trees and eat the brains out of unsuspecting passers by? But apparently they are partial only to the brains of the American tourists who come over there?

They didn't go up in Aus! And still going down today!

[metalman]

Re: gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

My Fidelity gold mining fund is up 12% today.

global rate cut = coordinated currency race to the bottom = gold up

you guys and your gold miners

hui is up 18% today.

[Guest]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Not so fast Metalguy. If the stock market embarks on a blistering rally gold may see a massive inversely correlated dive before it heads up further. Nothing is that cut and dried.

[Guest]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Whatsamatter Metalman. Don't like me no mo' because I made a crack about you and $#* getting married? Aw c'mon, the squabble was just going on for ever. I love ya bro. That picture you posted of my sister was great too. I think you are one of the coolest cats here. Your post about what all you were going to do to the creationist (make him watch sitcoms until his brain was dripping out of his head) has made you one of my heroes for life . Please - you can take the Mickey out of me now, and I'll play the patsy. I'll be laughing right along with you. What's it gonna be? Lukester's posts are so long and rambling you could run your printer out of toner just trying to print them out? Or "they are so long you could print them out as floral motifs on toilet paper? Or some crack about "Lukester the Spaghetti Bender? C'mon. It's all in good fun. Your're #1 with me pal. I'll cash your third party check any day (well, on second thoughts I'm a little skosh for spare change at the moment, but it's the thought that counts!).

Not so fast Metalguy. If the stock market embarks on a blistering rally gold may see a massive inversely correlated dive before it heads up further. Nothing is that cut and dried.

[sadsack]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Whatsamatter Metalman. Don't like me no mo' because I made a crack about you and $#* getting married? Aw c'mon, the squabble was just going on for ever. I love ya bro. That picture you posted of my sister was great too. I think you are one of the coolest cats here. Your post about what all you were going to do to the creationist (make him watch sitcoms until his brain was dripping out of his head) has made you one of my heroes for life . Please - you can take the Mickey out of me now, and I'll play the patsy. I'll be laughing right along with you. What's it gonna be? Lukester's posts are so long and rambling you could run your printer out of toner just trying to print them out? Or "they are so long you could print them out as floral motifs on toilet paper? Or some crack about "Lukester the Spaghetti Bender? C'mon. It's all in good fun. Your're #1 with me pal. I'll cash your third party check any day (well, on second thoughts I'm a little skosh for spare change at the moment, but it's the thought that counts!).

:confused::confused::confused:

Truly, with all due respect, perhaps PM (not the specie variety) would have been a more appropriate channel for this?

[metalman]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Not so fast Metalguy. If the stock market embarks on a blistering rally gold may see a massive inversely correlated dive before it heads up further. Nothing is that cut and dried.

i've heard all of this before... but the only accurate more or less call i can count on this board is the itulip $780 gold plunge terminus call, give or take a few percent. if you bought that you are happy.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Thanks Luke
I've lived with the A$ = .49USD but two things.
As the A$ fell Chinese prices were falling.
It happened over a much longer time period.
Now remember I'm one of the originals re the a$ not being worth much so it's going where I expect. I have been ranting about this debt thing for nigh on 35 years!!!!
It's a problem in that, about 8 years ago, I nearly went broke due to a confluence of really bad circumstances. Since then we've done really well and the business expanding ...like 30% a year. Even up to know we are doing better than last year. So it is difficult to decide to"shut down" an expanding business. Expanding businesses soak up capital.
I've still got a bit of cash lying around and recently sold the house. Selling the house was both a business (expecting this tsunami to hit) and personal circumstances. So now i'm renting so that's all good and i have a bit of spare dinero to buy Gold. I haven't worked it out but I expect by now most of my profits in the gold shares have been obliterated. Maybe still a bit in front.
What's the forecast on the a$?...I see a few of the pundits suggesting 0.50 US but rresally we owe so damn much there is not necessarily a bottom to it.

[Guest]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Sadsack - Your'e a young sprat, I gather from one of your recent posts? Very sophisticated young man. My compliments. If you wander around these pages you'll find many dozens of posts where people wander grieveously off topic, and indeed some posts can become fairly anarchic. In my lexicon, to post "I love ya bro" on a website as eclectic as iTulip's public pages, while it may be an embarassing display of sincerity to your sights (it is intended actually as jocularity - are you familiar with this term?), does not constitute an egregious breach of good form. Frankly, the above seems fairly harmless in the general mix of posts on these pages which can be fairly anarchic on occasion. Our Metalman must be in a state of peeve due to my ribald comment that he and $#* might as well be married they quarrel so much.

Actually I got an amused PM FROM $#* subsequently, and apparently his sense of humor does not find his own personage sacrosanct as the object of joking. But sadly it would appear Metalman, who (in true irony here) has a wonderful reputation for dispensing scathing remarks in all directions, has a tender spot when it comes to even mildly ribald comments directed at him. That's a shame. The best satirists spare no one, including themselves. You may not have come across it, but Metalman feels no compunction to post pictures of strange women (large, with lots of exposed flesh) with ribald jokes at my expense, to which I heartily laugh and share in the jollity with further dry humor. I genuinely do find them funny. I would note to the Metal chap however, that he should exercise his capacity to laugh a little at himself on occasion too.

Meanwhile, to what do we owe your sudden scruple that threads remain rigidly on topic 24/7? I am not aware that I am slopping off-topic posts all over these forum pages as a regular habit, although I do enjoy a bit of anarchic humor sometimes to lighten the stress of the invariably gloomy topics found on these pages. The feedback I've had from various members is that the humor alleviated their stress as well, so it was a good thing. I would surmise rather that your own sudden newfound scruple and primness here, may be due to the fact that I've pinned your own (still wet behind the?) ears back on a misquote you tripped up on when engaging in a bit of overdone patronizing of your own? That whole "grappling with the topography" patronage is remarkable stuff coming from a gen-X savant. If you are going to engage in arrant patronizing elsewhere, allow me to make these contributions to loosen the corset you are apparently now wearing.

With all due respect.

:confused::confused::confused:

Truly, with all due respect, perhaps PM (not the specie variety) would have been a more appropriate channel for this?

[sadsack]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Lukester - fair enough. The glistening drops of your condescension are like nourishing honey to one accustomed to decades of alkaline water torture . . .

As far as sprats are concerned (and I wouldn't presume this applies to me),

But whoso shall offend one of these little ones which believe in me, it were better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck and that he were drowned in the depth of the sea.

To assume the one is to implicitly accept the corresponding responsibility one has thereto . . .

[Guest]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Sadsack - Why don't you talk plain, like normal folk do? The constantly arch and esoteric references give me a headache. "Grappling with the topographies" gives me a headache. "Glistening drops of your condescension are like nourishing honey" gives me a headache. Why don't you get off the convoluted pseudo-literary style bandwagon and say "still trying to understand this point" in plain English, like normal people use the language, eh? Take the Mark Twain pill and use simple, fifty cent words. And with regard to patronizing, I never initiate such silly contrivances. I respond to them. Big difference. In employing it here, I only offer you a mirror, where you can take a look at yourself ndulging in it. Personally, I'm allergic to patronizing. I don't like it. I think it's for stuffed shirts. Stop your patronizing and arbitrary primness informed primarily by your passing peeves, and you'll discover a relaxed, friendly, honest and collegial partner in me. I do regularly humble myself to those who befriend me. Just don't give me your kiddie high-chair esoteric talk with the obscure quotes (which occasionally lapse into mis-quotes), as I will constantly be tempted to debunk that crap.

... The glistening drops of your condescension are like nourishing honey to one accustomed to decades of alkaline water torture . . But whoso shall offend one of these little ones which believe in me, it were better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck and that he were drowned in the depth of the sea. ... To assume the one is to implicitly accept the corresponding responsibility one has thereto . . .

[*T*]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Sadsack - Your'e a young sprat, I gather from one of your recent posts? Very sophisticated young man. My compliments. If you wander around these pages you'll find many dozens of posts where people wander grieveously off topic, and indeed some posts can become fairly anarchic. In my lexicon, to post "I love ya bro" on a website as eclectic as iTulip's public pages, while it may be an embarassing display of sincerity to your sights (it is intended actually as jocularity - are you familiar with this term?), does not constitute an egregious breach of good form. Frankly, the above seems fairly harmless in the general mix of posts on these pages which can be fairly anarchic on occasion. Our Metalman must be in a state of peeve due to my ribald comment that he and $#* might as well be married they quarrel so much.

Actually I got an amused PM FROM $#* subsequently, and apparently his sense of humor does not find his own personage sacrosanct as the object of joking. But sadly it would appear Metalman, who (in true irony here) has a wonderful reputation for dispensing scathing remarks in all directions, has a tender spot when it comes to even mildly ribald comments directed at him. That's a shame. The best satirists spare no one, including themselves. You may not have come across it, but Metalman feels no compunction to post pictures of strange women (large, with lots of exposed flesh) with ribald jokes at my expense, to which I heartily laugh and share in the jollity with further dry humor. I genuinely do find them funny. I would note to the Metal chap however, that he should exercise his capacity to laugh a little at himself on occasion too.

Meanwhile, to what do we owe your sudden scruple that threads remain rigidly on topic 24/7? I am not aware that I am slopping off-topic posts all over these forum pages as a regular habit, although I do enjoy a bit of anarchic humor sometimes to lighten the stress of the invariably gloomy topics found on these pages. The feedback I've had from various members is that the humor alleviated their stress as well, so it was a good thing. I would surmise rather that your own sudden newfound scruple and primness here, may be due to the fact that I've pinned your own (still wet behind the?) ears back on a misquote you tripped up on when engaging in a bit of overdone patronizing of your own? That whole "grappling with the topography" patronage is remarkable stuff coming from a gen-X savant. If you are going to engage in arrant patronizing elsewhere, allow me to make these contributions to loosen the corset you are apparently now wearing.

With all due respect.

-> Lukester_filter -> "Lighten up, dude"

[Louie.G]

Re: Gold stocks bottomed and now in rally mode

Thanks Luke
I've lived with the A$ = .49USD but two things.
As the A$ fell Chinese prices were falling.
It happened over a much longer time period.
Now remember I'm one of the originals re the a$ not being worth much so it's going where I expect. I have been ranting about this debt thing for nigh on 35 years!!!!

So it is difficult to decide to"shut down" an expanding business. Expanding businesses soak up capital.

What's the forecast on the a$?...I see a few of the pundits suggesting 0.50 US but rresally we owe so damn much there is not necessarily a bottom to it.

Hi Outback

I can relate to that low rate. I invested and opened my US office when USD/NZD was 0.40. Then, over 6 years, it went to 0.80 so it hurt... A LOT!!!!!

Like you, I import into Aus out of China so my costs are going up while my income (in USD equivalent) is going down, so what to do??

Guess I can raise prices in AUD which hurts my distributors trying to sell in a probably declining Aus market. Would love to buy Gold, but my business has also been growing strong so I need all the $ I can get my hands on for working capital.

I feel that the USD rise is temporary (as do many here) but how temporary is the big question.

Thus for me I am considering the option of "Borrowing" USD for an extended period now and then repaying it back as and when the USD drops. I guess one could call this a hedge. Could you buy Gold and use that as security for USD cash, so you would have a buck each way so to speak. Would that be a workable option for a business like yours?? IF USD tanks then gold would rise would it not??

I am fortunate in that I sell in AUD, GBP and NZD, which have all crumbled so if you see a shirt flying past, it will be the one I lost lol. My ace in the hole, I "feel", is the fact that we also have a business in the US. Now that market tanked about two weeks ago in a couple of states but TX has so far held it's own. So hopefully by utilising my US income to subsidise this FX mess I can play it out better than most and cream it when the USD does tank. That is , of course, unless it crashes and burns then I will loose my last shirt lol.

I personally feel the current USD strength has more to do with fear and panic than basic fundamentals, so hopefully when fear resides, some semblance of normality might return, but then, what is normality in this new world we are currently all entering

Cheers

PS
The sun is still rising in the east, might that be a misnomer for where the financials will also soon rise??