SP500 - Time to rally

[icm63]

250 days = 1 year trend
500 days = 2 year trend
1000 days = 4 year trend
2000 days = 8 year trend
4000 days = 16 year trend

I expect a SP500 bonce here at the 4000 day SMA, on our way to 500 print on the sp500 ( All they way back to the start in 1994)

Do you like them apples ?
TimeforaBounceMaybe.jpg

[ddn3f]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

How come I can not see the chart?

[LargoWinch]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

250 days = 1 year trend
500 days = 2 year trend
1000 days = 4 year trend
2000 days = 8 year trend
4000 days = 16 year trend

I expect a SP500 bonce here at the 4000 day SMA, on our way to 500 print on the sp500 ( All they way back to the start in 1994)

Do you like them apples ?
[ATTACH]621[/ATTACH]

Icm63, your comment is confusing to me a little: so you expect the S&P to it 500? If so, that is 50% or so below current level! Even I (or even Peter S.), am not bearish that much...

[icm63]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

550 trilion dollars on derivatives
of which 60 trillion is credit default swaps

If just 5% of CDS are bad thats 3 trillion dollars

( Note: so far 1.3 trillion or so recognised as losses on all types of products, loans, CDS, MBS etc)

I mean bad when the payout party cant pay on the event that triggers the CDS payment. Remember the payer party needs assets to sell to make the payment if they dont have the cash, and in asset price deflation thats getting harder and harder to raise the funds.

So if we are lucky its only maybe 5% or less, otherwise USA debt will blossom to $15 trillion dollars or more easy has the govt takes on more and more of the wallstreet mess.

There is the ammo for SP500 below 500, you can bet on that !

[Guest]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

Bob Hoye is not bad at calling the turns?

___________


CHARTWORKS - OCTOBER 6, 2008

Dow and S&P 500 Capitulation Pre-Alert

Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

The US markets are entering a time frame for an anticipated interim low. The indices are also getting close to generating important capitulation signals. If the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials close lower on the week of October 10th they will produce weekly Capitulation alerts. These are rare events for these indices, having occurred only twelve times in over a century. Following an interim low we will look for a multi-week relief rally that retraces 40-50% of the decline from the August highs and then a retest of the lows.

In the case of the Dow Industrials the last Capitulation signals occurred in 1966 and the later part of the 1929 to 1932 bear market; October 1931, December 1931 & May 1932. Prior to that there were two clusters; October 16th to 23rd 1903 and at the end of the banking crisis from October 18th to Nov 22nd 1907.

The S&P has produced seven clusters of signals since 1950. They all occurred around important multi-month lows;

June 8th to 21st 1962	Aug 26th to Sept 2nd 1966	May 22, 1970
Sept 13, 1974	March 23, 2001	Sept 21, 2001
July 19th & 26th 2002

The action around the signals has been fairly consistent. Seven of the twelve Capitulation alerts resulted in a bottom that week or the following week. Three bottomed within the second or third week. The conclusion is that if next week is down then the likelihood of an upside reversal in the second half of the month is quite good.

Sequential Buy Setups occurred around eight of the Capitulation lows (see following charts). In six of those instances it only required a count of seven weeks rather than the normal nine weeks of development to reach a bottom. (It took nine weeks in 2002 and thirteen weeks in 1974). We are currently at week number five in the count. If the next two Friday’s closes are below those of September 12th & 19th then a seven week count will be in place and an upside reversal becomes likely.

Another tool has been the often-seen 37 to 55-day plunge to market capitulation. Depending on which market average one uses it is now 35 to 39 weekdays since the market topped in August so a climactic low could be in place by October 27th. There is also the seasonal component whereby most of the great fall liquidations have ended in late October.

As we move through this month we will update as more pieces of the puzzle become apparent.

-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors

[icm63]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

WTF SP500 915

Rally from here PLeeeease !

_ i am in cash !

This is worse than 1930s !!!

[phirang]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

don't worry: the markets will go up 30% when they debauch the dollar.

[unlucky]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

Bush Plans Statement Tomorrow to `Assure' Nation About Economy

All bets are off.

[GRG55]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

don't worry: the markets will go up 30% when they debauch the dollar.

when??...

I thought they were...

[Guest]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

GRG55 -

This came out recently, from one of your countrymen. The forecast is a bit eye-popping, and very counter-intuitive. It runs right out to 2014, and what's notable here is that it is 100% unequivocal. The concept of "sitting on the fence" with "on the one hand this, but on the other hand that" prognostications is not this guy's style at all. It will be easy enough for us to find out if he's talking through his hat. We only have to wait 12 months and see if the first part of his forecast pans out. If it does, the remainder gains in likelihood, and that remainder is highly actionable.

Hat tip to iTuliper ddn3f for the heads-up.

PETROLEUM, COMMODITIES AND GOLD PRICE FORECASTS - 2009-2014

[GRG55]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

GRG55 -

This came out recently, from one of your countrymen. The forecast is a bit eye-popping, and very counter-intuitive. It runs right out to 2014, and what's notable here is that it is 100% unequivocal. The concept of "sitting on the fence" with "on the one hand this, but on the other hand that" prognostications is not this guy's style at all. It will be easy enough for us to find out if he's talking through his hat. We only have to wait 12 months and see if the first part of his forecast pans out. If it does, the remainder gains in likelihood, and that remainder is highly actionable.

Hat tip to iTuliper ddn3f for the heads-up.

PETROLEUM, COMMODITIES AND GOLD PRICE FORECASTS - 2009-2014

Thanks for the link Lukester [and also to ddn3f]. You've put up several things by Bensimon [sp?] and his recent [just passed, so we know how they turned out] calls seem uncanny.

I have never fashioned myself a trader, preferring to try to ride the long term trends, which has worked more successfully for me. Actually I find it quite ironic that Marc Faber keeps everyone breathlessly on the edge of their seats with each and every interview with his pronouncements of what to buy and sell next. My introduction to Faber was when he laid out his case for why you only needed to make one investment call roughly each decade to make a lot of money [I think he illustrated that with "commodities in the '70s, Japanese stocks in the '80s, tech stocks in the '90s, ..."]

One question: If so much trading is being done with programmed buy/sells, does that mean the various technical levels/Fibonacci retracements, etc become self-fulfilling?

[Guest]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

GRG55 - One thing to get clear about Bensimon, this guy is not anybody's description of a common trader. More like an institutional grade macro-analyst, but with a chartists approach. He does not at all give me the idea he is any kind of "trader". He's not giving any inkling these analyses are about short term rapid fire trading approach at all. Actually he's close to Bob Hoye's enthusiasms (and our Bart here at iTulip) in that he's all over the historic parallels and very much into LONG term charting.

In fact, he even mentions this explicitly in other interviews - pointing out that the primary value of his forecasts is that it gives historically minded, and macro-investing minded clients a "roadmap" so that when the really brutal selloffs occur, they don't get into a flap about it, because his track record and his crystal clear price projections are pointing out to them that far higher price targets lie only a short ways ahead.

Keep an eye on this guy. If he's borne out in the next year, he will be invaluable going out to 2014, because he's projecting that after reaching $200 a barrel at the end of 2009, oil would once again collapse down to $100 a barrel by the end of 2010! But thereafter it takes off like a saturn booster to $450 only four years later. The investor angst and whiplash inherent in this trajectory is clearly overwhelming. Therefore one valuable approach would be to carefully watch this guy's macro call, which in our present environment is truly stunningly counter to what everyone else is hollering about (total economic collapse is just around the corner).

He was 100% against the hollering crowd (oil is going to $200!!) in the spring of this year, and he's 100% against the hollering crowd now again. Let's watch him and see. If he's looking good in december 2009, we have a fabulous roadmap out to 2014. By the way, Mr. Bensimon is registered as a member right here at iTulip (goes by "PolarPacific) in the forums. I sent him a PM a few weeks ago when I saw he was online but he "melted away".

I think an interview with him by EJ would be absolutely fascinating, althoug they are polar opposites (pun intended). EJ does not "do" technical analysis and is much more economist by approach. The guy has a proven track record that is very extensive in a highly specialized niche area of technical analysis of long L O O O O O N G historical waves. Fastening on to a forecaster of this caliber is like discovering you had a compass on board all along, while you are out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean in the force 10 gale without any navigation gear. I would very much be interested to see him interviewed here.

btw - according to him we are right down near the bottom in petroleum prices. Anyone betting against Bensimon - better have their most astute arguments nailed securely down to the floor.

Thanks for the link Lukester [and also to ddn3f]. You've put up several things by Bensimon [sp?] and his recent [just passed, so we know how they turned out] calls seem uncanny.

I have never fashioned myself a trader, preferring to try to ride the long term trends, which has worked more successfully for me. Actually I find it quite ironic that Marc Faber keeps everyone breathlessly on the edge of their seats with each and every interview with his pronouncements of what to buy and sell next. My introduction to Faber was when he laid out his case for why you only needed to make one investment call roughly each decade to make a lot of money [I think he illustrated that with "commodities in the '70s, Japanese stocks in the '80s, tech stocks in the '90s, ..."]

One question: If so much trading is being done with programmed buy/sells, does that mean the various technical levels/Fibonacci retracements, etc become self-fulfilling?

[GRG55]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

GRG55 - One thing to get clear about Bensimon, this guy is not anybody's description of a common trader. More like an institutional grade macro-analyst, but with a chartists approach. He does not at all give me the idea he is any kind of "trader". He's not giving any inkling these analyses are about short term rapid fire trading approach at all. Actually he's close to Bob Hoye's enthusiasms (and our Bart here at iTulip) in that he's all over the historic parallels and very much into LONG term charting.

In fact, he even mentions this explicitly in other interviews - pointing out that the primary value of his forecasts is that it gives historically minded, and macro-investing minded clients a "roadmap" so that when the really brutal selloffs occur, they don't get into a flap about it, because his track record and his crystal clear price projections are pointing out to them that far higher price targets lie only a short ways ahead.

Keep an eye on this guy. If he's borne out in the next year, he will be invaluable going out to 2014, because he's projecting that after reaching $200 a barrel at the end of 2009, oil would once again collapse down to $100 a barrel by the end of 2010! But thereafter it takes off like a saturn booster to $450 only four years later. The investor angst and whiplash inherent in this trajectory is clearly overwhelming. Therefore one valuable approach would be to carefully watch this guy's macro call, which in our present environment is truly stunningly counter to what everyone else is hollering about (total economic collapse is just around the corner).

He was 100% against the hollering crowd (oil is going to $200!!) in the spring of this year, and he's 100% against the hollering crowd now again. Let's watch him and see. If he's looking good in december 2009, we have a fabulous roadmap out to 2014. By the way, Mr. Bensimon is registered as a member right here at iTulip (goes by "PolarPacific) in the forums. I sent him a PM a few weeks ago when I saw he was online but he "melted away".

I think an interview with him by EJ would be absolutely fascinating, althoug they are polar opposites (pun intended). EJ does not "do" technical analysis and is much more economist by approach. The guy has a proven track record that is very extensive in a highly specialized niche area of technical analysis of long L O O O O O N G historical waves. Fastening on to a forecaster of this caliber is like discovering you had a compass on board all along, while you are out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean in the force 10 gale without any navigation gear. I would very much be interested to see him interviewed here.

btw - according to him we are right down near the bottom in petroleum prices. Anyone betting against Bensimon - better have their most astute arguments nailed securely down to the floor.

Thanks for the clarification Lukester. I agree an interview with him could be quite interesting.

[jimmygu3]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

Bob Hoye is not bad at calling the turns?

___________


CHARTWORKS - OCTOBER 6, 2008

Dow and S&P 500 Capitulation Pre-Alert

Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

The US markets are entering a time frame for an anticipated interim low. The indices are also getting close to generating important capitulation signals. If the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials close lower on the week of October 10th they will produce weekly Capitulation alerts. These are rare events for these indices, having occurred only twelve times in over a century. Following an interim low we will look for a multi-week relief rally that retraces 40-50% of the decline from the August highs and then a retest of the lows.

In the case of the Dow Industrials the last Capitulation signals occurred in 1966 and the later part of the 1929 to 1932 bear market; October 1931, December 1931 & May 1932. Prior to that there were two clusters; October 16th to 23rd 1903 and at the end of the banking crisis from October 18th to Nov 22nd 1907.

The S&P has produced seven clusters of signals since 1950. They all occurred around important multi-month lows;

June 8th to 21st 1962	Aug 26th to Sept 2nd 1966	May 22, 1970
Sept 13, 1974	March 23, 2001	Sept 21, 2001
July 19th & 26th 2002

The action around the signals has been fairly consistent. Seven of the twelve Capitulation alerts resulted in a bottom that week or the following week. Three bottomed within the second or third week. The conclusion is that if next week is down then the likelihood of an upside reversal in the second half of the month is quite good.

Sequential Buy Setups occurred around eight of the Capitulation lows (see following charts). In six of those instances it only required a count of seven weeks rather than the normal nine weeks of development to reach a bottom. (It took nine weeks in 2002 and thirteen weeks in 1974). We are currently at week number five in the count. If the next two Friday’s closes are below those of September 12th & 19th then a seven week count will be in place and an upside reversal becomes likely.

Another tool has been the often-seen 37 to 55-day plunge to market capitulation. Depending on which market average one uses it is now 35 to 39 weekdays since the market topped in August so a climactic low could be in place by October 27th. There is also the seasonal component whereby most of the great fall liquidations have ended in late October.

As we move through this month we will update as more pieces of the puzzle become apparent.

-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors

Lukester,

Looks like we are sure to close "below 1100" today, maybe even below 850. Are you planning to trade this bear rally? I'm thinking of covering my shorts.

Jimmy

[Guest]

Re: SP500 - Time to rally

Jimmygu3 - You got the wrong guy as far as trading this event. I will be glad merely to hang onto my underwear!

Lukester, Looks like we are sure to close "below 1100" today, maybe even below 850. Are you planning to trade this bear rally? I'm thinking of covering my shorts. Jimmy