Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

[don]

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney10062008.html

[Tulpen]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

"DeFazio is exactly right, especially about Paulson. As the New York Times article on Friday, "Agency’s ’04 Rule Let Banks Pile Up New Debt, and Risk", points out, Paulson, as chairman of Goldman Sachs, was one of the leaders of the five investment banks, who duped the SEC into loosening the rules on capital requirements which created the problems we are now facing."

The irony!

[phirang]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

God, I love getting fked by rich people...

[hellstan]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

Crawford Perspectives :

"Old Market rule: If markets reverse previous extensive (not just short term) movements by over 50%, it is
likely that the entire 100% will be corrected. In present case, that would mean a return to 2002-2003 low levels. On
shorter term trading moves and some longer ones, the Golden Mean ratio may also result in, at least, a temporary
reversal or trading range. That would be a 61.8% or possibly a 2/3 at 66.7% retracement band to keep one eye on.
This 61.8% retracement support (in this case) is the green line just below current price levels."

[Guest]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

Arch Crawford is very damned good. Stellar track record and conventional analyst background, despite his unusual current methodology. Bet against this guy's calls at your peril. There are others who uphold his conclusions 100%, who are in a far more mainstream technical analyst mold, such as James Flanagan. What these guys are mapping is like a two by four, whacked brutally across the side of the head, for inflation hedge investors. Can you spell "secular commodities bear market in progress"?

Yet another analyst (unnamed but who would understand Crawford's work 100%) suggests it will "take some time for people to get over the commodities bull market hangover". Warrants very careful reflection. One other consideration is that bear markets often "compress" the time consumed by the previous bull therefore the ugly truth is that the commodity bear market is already far enough along as to render exiting of dubious merit. Basically commodity bulls are today already trapped in for the entire ride (down).

Crawford Perspectives :

"Old Market rule: If markets reverse previous extensive (not just short term) movements by over 50%, it is likely that the entire 100% will be corrected. In present case, that would mean a return to 2002-2003 low levels. On shorter term trading moves and some longer ones, the Golden Mean ratio may also result in, at least, a temporary reversal or trading range. That would be a 61.8% or possibly a 2/3 at 66.7% retracement band to keep one eye on.
This 61.8% retracement support (in this case) is the green line just below current price levels."

[don]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

"DeFazio is exactly right, especially about Paulson. As the New York Times article on Friday, "Agency’s ’04 Rule Let Banks Pile Up New Debt, and Risk", points out, Paulson, as chairman of Goldman Sachs, was one of the leaders of the five investment banks, who duped the SEC into loosening the rules on capital requirements which created the problems we are now facing."

The irony!

You're being kind calling it irony.

Remember what a tease Paulson was over taking the Treasury post? Wonder what he said....

[hellstan]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

Arch Crawford is very damned good. Stellar track record and conventional analyst background, despite his unusual current methodology. Bet against this guy's calls at your peril. There are others who uphold his conclusions 100%, who are in a far more mainstream technical analyst mold, such as James Flanagan. What these guys are mapping is like a two by four, whacked brutally across the side of the head, for inflation hedge investors. Can you spell "secular commodities bear market in progress"?

Yet another analyst (unnamed but who would understand Crawford's work 100%) suggests it will "take some time for people to get over the commodities bull market hangover". Warrants very careful reflection. One other consideration is that bear markets often "compress" the time consumed by the previous bull therefore the ugly truth is that the commodity bear market is already far enough along as to render exiting of dubious merit. Basically commodity bulls are today already trapped in for the entire ride (down).

If just had a talk with Crawford tonight (I'm in Paris). He sees (and his last letter confirms so) a major crash as he never experienced before.
He's not in gold anymore, at least for several months.
This puzzled me a lot, because I thought my strategy (gold + bear products) was the best damage control possible choice.

[metalman]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

If just had a talk with Crawford tonight (I'm in Paris). He sees (and his last letter confirms so) a major crash as he never experienced before.
He's not in gold anymore, at least for several months.
This puzzled me a lot, because I thought my strategy (gold + bear products) was the best damage control possible choice.

mystery solved. listen to crawford's language...

Old Market rule:

there are no 'old market rules'

If markets reverse previous extensive (not just short term) movements by over 50%, it is likely that the entire 100% will be corrected.

garbage. goop. non statistical poop.

In present case, that would mean a return to 2002-2003 low levels.

so between $280 and, oh, $416? can crawfold be more vague? and the timeframe is... what?

On shorter term trading moves and some longer ones, the Golden Mean ratio may also result in, at least, a temporary reversal or trading range. That would be a 61.8% or possibly a 2/3 at 66.7% retracement band to keep one eye on. This 61.8% retracement support (in this case) is the green line just below current price levels.

what a stinking pile of crap. you guys pay for this pile of turds and bs? sheesh.

take a position then strap these on...

[Supercilious]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

Can you spell "secular commodities bear market in progress"?

If you can spell that you should be able to spell Oil Bubble too :rolleyes:

[phirang]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

If you can spell that you should be able to spell Oil Bubble too :rolleyes:

ouch...

been hearing news of tankers laying the GCC full of oil...

well, time to ride the forthcoming gold buble and then get the hell out of the fed's way.

[GRG55]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

If you can spell that you should be able to spell Oil Bubble too :rolleyes:

Keep that spell checker close at hand. You'll need to use that phrase over and over again soon enough...;)

[metalman]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

Keep that spell checker close at hand. You'll need to use that phrase over and over again soon enough...;)

was thinking about this... shocking that oil isn't already at $50 by now.

the demand picture is uuuuuuuugly.

yet the shopping malls in dubai are packed.



what gives?

something, of course

[GRG55]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

was thinking about this... shocking that oil isn't already at $50 by now.

the demand picture is uuuuuuuugly.

yet the shopping malls in dubai are packed.



what gives?

something, of course

The petroleum supply picture is going to start looking uuuuuugly soon. And it won't have anything to do with OPEC posturing/quota changes following their next mezza-fest.

One of the most capital intensive industries in the world cannot escape the consequences of the credit contraction. $#*'s Oil Bubble was just long enough for...

1. ...governments from A to V [Alberta to Venezuela] to adopt policies that not only discourage output increases, but now actually resulting in outright output declines [that will become increasingly apparent as the money continues to dry up];
2. ...Toronto and the City of London [mostly on the AIM] to raise a good deal of capital, most of which went [as usual] into "story" junior oil stocks that never added a single BTU of energy to global supply [once burned, twice shy?];
3. ...Saudi to open the taps and run their established fields at max depletion rates for an extended duration...something that hasn't happened before;
4. ...petroleum assets, leases and F&D [finding and development] costs all around the world to be priced such that margins were once again quickly bid down to virtually nothing [there's a reason my Board/partners agreed my recommendation to sell and cash out of our firm end of last year...we've all seen this before];
5. ...the mainstream media to become conditioned to produce the predictable alternating series of "this must be a crisis" and "ALERT - Mega oil find offshore ______ means potential new OPEC nation" articles.

It wasn't long enough to offset two decades of underinvestment.

[hellstan]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

If you can spell that you should be able to spell Oil Bubble too :rolleyes:

And what about Gold bubble ?

[Supercilious]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

And what about Gold bubble ?

The physical gold bubble may be coming very soon and it may be very ugly.

If we are talking about paper gold (ETF-ETN) ... well .... especially those ultra short/long ETN's ... well ... you can use less.