Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

[Guest]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

GRG55 - I think ths bear market in oil will be short lived, and when it turns back up it's going to suck the air out of everyone's lungs in shock at the scale and speed of the ramp up that it resumes. I'm thinking $200 oil could slam into us within 18 - 24 months from these depressed levels in late 2008. Oil investments today are genuine pearls sitting out there in broad daylight. This global recession, if it softens oil prices much further is likely the last time we will spend in a world not under a gun to severe, horrific oil price shock. We may as well savor it.

Like observing a train approaching - up until 200 yards away it appears to be approaching at a lazy pace. Then at 100 yards away it is suddenly a careening 1000 tons of belching roaring steel, slamming in at you at unbelievable speed. This can quite easily, indeed very likely be, the second "horseman of the apocalypse" after the current global markets meltdowns. If we see a generalized global financial meltdown like 1998, you can imagine this thing slamming into us right as the world is recovering from that global financial event.

At that point the global economy can rapidly begin to look like road kill. So much for EJ's sanguine expectations of the smoothness of "transition to a low carbon energy world" thereafter.

I think I need to get a prescription for PROZAC here.

The petroleum supply picture is going to start looking uuuuuugly soon. And it won't have anything to do with OPEC posturing/quota changes following their next mezza-fest.

[GRG55]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

GRG55 - I think ths bear market in oil will be short lived, and when it turns back up it's going to suck the air out of everyone's lungs in shock at the scale and speed of the ramp up that it resumes. I'm thinking $200 oil could slam into us within 18 - 24 months from these depressed levels in late 2008. Oil investments today are genuine pearls sitting out there in broad daylight. This global recession, if it softens oil prices much further is likely the last time we will spend in a world not under a gun to severe, horrific oil price shock. We may as well savor it.

Like observing a train approaching - up until 200 yards away it appears to be approaching at a lazy pace. Then at 100 yards away it is suddenly a careening 1000 tons of belching roaring steel, slamming in at you at unbelievable speed. This can quite easily, indeed very likely be, the second "horseman of the apocalypse" after the current global markets meltdowns. If we see a generalized global financial meltdown like 1998, you can imagine this thing slamming into us right as the world is recovering from that global financial event.

At that point the global economy can rapidly begin to look like road kill. So much for EJ's sanguine expectations of the smoothness of "transition to a low carbon energy world" thereafter.

I think I need to get a prescription for PROZAC here.

Lukester: I do not think EJ is sanguine nor do I think he has ever expected a "smooth" transition to anything. For some time he's been pretty clear, imo, that we were heading into a period of chaotic markets, and here we are.

I think EJ has been an advocate for what you refer to as a "low carbon energy world" as the most viable alternative for the USA to try to counter the very energy sourced inflation that you describe above.

[Guest]

Re: Whitney: Edge of the Abyss

The rationality of what EJ endorses as the desirable outcome via low carbon energy is clearly not in question.

Lukester: I do not think EJ is sanguine nor do I think he has ever expected a "smooth" transition to anything. For some time he's been pretty clear, imo, that we were heading into a period of chaotic markets, and here we are.

I think EJ has been an advocate for what you refer to as a "low carbon energy world" as the most viable alternative for the USA to try to counter the very energy sourced inflation that you describe above.