Cramer says SELL!

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

the thesis that the cost of energy in five years will be what it is today in real terms.

Actually, I think the cost of energy will decline significantly in five years.

[Guest]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Actually, I think the cost of energy will decline significantly in five years.

:p :p :p

You're gonna win the lotto for sure, Bam.

I agree that if your own country with the world's help is trying to devalue your currency, eventually they will win. But there's a few cycles yet to be played before gold becomes the reserve currency. It's looking a little bubbly. I'm still thinking oz per oz, tuna is a much better investment.

Desperate times call for desperate measures -- the US should consider selling Alaska. I figure the Russians or Canadians will take it by force eventually in 25 years or so. Why not make a huge profit while we can? Selling Alaska would certainly take care of our problems for a good hundred years. I certainly wouldn't want to be holding gold when the next Treasury secretary floats that idea.

[santafe2]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Actually, I think the cost of energy will decline significantly in five years.

Can you flesh that statement out? What will be the key drivers of lower energy cost? I don't see how this is possible. From a US centric POV, over the next 5 months, maybe yes, but 5 years?

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

In 1999, I was telling people that China was the place to be. I moved here in 2000. People laughed it up. Back then the RMB was trading at 8.2 and things looked bleak. Sold 2 US houses in 2006 and 2007 and bought a house in the mountains in China in 2006... freash air, clean mountain water....
As I recall San Diego was the place to be a decade ago. What the heck happened?
If you follow the herd, you'll be covered in turd.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

I'm curious. Do my posts have the power to cause general constipation? They regularly seem to have that effect. :p

LMAO I'd have thought the effect quite the opposite

Perhaps your logic is absolutely compelling lukester and there is no answer!

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

In essence, technological advances.... solar, wind, and molecular. Combine that with advances in efficiency and a drop-off in demand. Is it inconceivable that the US changes diplomatic course with Iran within 5 years? I'd say it's quite likely.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

I agree that if your own country with the world's help is trying to devalue your currency, eventually they will win. But there's a few cycles yet to be played before gold becomes the reserve currency. It's looking a little bubbly.
I'm still thinking oz per oz, tuna is a much better investment.

Desperate times call for desperate measures -- the US should consider selling Alaska. I figure the Russians or Canadians will take it by force eventually in 25 years or so. Why not make a huge profit while we can? Selling Alaska would certainly take care of our problems for a good hundred years. I certainly wouldn't want to be holding gold when the next Treasury secretary floats that idea'r.

That's the first realistic solution i've seen proposed for this crisis......like an individual or corporation, the US owes oceans of money with no way to pay other than asset sales! I just don't understand why the Chinese etc have not demanded ownership of a whole swag of US assets...mines, farm land etc etc...things of REAL value. Maybe it is yet a bit early in the game and they sure think longer term than anyone in the Western world.

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

I just don't understand why the Chinese etc have not demanded ownership of a whole swag of US assets...mines, farm land etc

The Chinese have their own problems. It's going to be tough being on the pointy end of the US's dropping demand for exports. But hey, nothing that a little change of agricultural property rights can't fix.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

I just don't understand why the Chinese etc have not demanded ownership of a whole swag of US assets...mines, farm land etc

The Chinese have their own problems. It's going to be tough being on the pointy end of the US's dropping demand for exports. But hey, nothing that a little change of agricultural property rights can't fix.

Bam i'm a smallish importer in Australia. I've been to China about 70 times and spent about 2.5 years of my life there if it is all added up! If I was not broke at the time, i could have bought a lot of that good land around Qingdao for not much!!! Lots of international hotels sitting on it now!!!
To say that i'm getting smashed at the moment currency wise is an understatement. Our FOB prices are up like 40 to 60 to 100% over the last 9 months. At the same time our currency is now down some 35%. At the moment i cannot raise prices quickly enough to cover the increasing cost. So here we are looking at a virtual doubling of price over the next few months. I guess, I will be squeezed by others selling on prices based on an historical cost basis, so that will constrict the price rise for a while.
However a doubling of price is sure going to smash a lot of demand here over the next 12 months.
The rest of the world in not quite so bad a situation re prices but (so far) worse in the currency crunch stakes, So like you I'm thinking major dislocation in Chinese export industries. Their margins are so fine that it has to smash them.
Australia still hanging on the thread of China still steaming ahead....infrastructure requiring our resources etc? What is your take on what will happen in China re infrastructure etc? Another thing, the property sector there looked like a bingle waiting to happen. Everywhere we go there are miles of massive new residential towers with few buyers? What are your thoughts?

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Australia still hanging on the thread of China still steaming ahead....infrastructure requiring our resources etc? What is your take on what will happen in China re infrastructure etc? Another thing, the property sector there looked like a bingle waiting to happen. Everywhere we go there are miles of massive new residential towers with few buyers? What are your thoughts?

Frankly, I think China should be in deep shit. They have clearly overbuilt everywhere you look. And as exporter to the recessing world, they should be concerned. But...the nine guys who run the country can do just about anything they want to. Not having elections sure cuts the crap in the most immediate way. One thing I've learned is that predicting what's going to happen in China is a fools game.
But.... I'd guess they might just take the opportunity to develop their agricultural infrastructure... 800 million farming peasants have to live somewhere after they've sold the farm. And why not live in a giant community right next to a conglomerate that bought the farm and work in one of the many agricultural processing and shipping plants?
Dramatic? Sure. It certainly won't be organized, but it's possible.
By the time the ROW gets constituent approval to convert subdivisions back to farmland, it will be too late to compete... curses, foiled again.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

On the today show, Jim Cramer says it's time to sell....a little behind the curve, wouldn't you say?

I retrospect, he was right. Did he have some inside info from his friends that hedge funds were blowing up?

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Frankly, I think China should be in deep shit. They have clearly overbuilt everywhere you look. And as exporter to the recessing world, they should be concerned. But...the nine guys who run the country can do just about anything they want to. Not having elections sure cuts the crap in the most immediate way. One thing I've learned is that predicting what's going to happen in China is a fools game.
But.... I'd guess they might just take the opportunity to develop their agricultural infrastructure... 800 million farming peasants have to live somewhere after they've sold the farm. And why not live in a giant community right next to a conglomerate that bought the farm and work in one of the many agricultural processing and shipping plants?
Dramatic? Sure. It certainly won't be organized, but it's possible.
By the time the ROW gets constituent approval to convert subdivisions back to farmland, it will be too late to compete... curses, foiled again.

My impression is that those nine guys have done pretty well all things considered. Like you say not having to worry about elections and a stupid short sighted media makes decision making a whole lot easier. Who knows longer term! Some things take 50 years or more to wash through. If there is social dislocation who knows what can happen.

[Guest]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

"If you follow the herd, you'll get covered in turd". Hey catchy slogan. Does that come with a robust argument demolishing the significance of global energy constraints that's deeper than a finely sprinkled layer of fertilizer?

Wonderful substantiations there. "technological advance", "solar, wind, molecular", "advances in efficiency", "drop-off in demand". Wave your wand fella. Go ahead and wave your wand. In ten years you'll be stuck in wall to wall traffic in your provincial capital whenever you come down off your rarefied mountain redoubt.

I have rarely read such a truly breezy, gossamer-thin set of substantiations for a thesis here at iTulip. Good relations with Iran will solve the world's energy predicament? That mountain air must be heady indeed. ...

In essence, technological advances.... solar, wind, and molecular. Combine that with advances in efficiency and a drop-off in demand. Is it inconceivable that the US changes diplomatic course with Iran within 5 years? I'd say it's quite likely.

Can you flesh that statement out? What will be the key drivers of lower energy cost? I don't see how this is possible. From a US centric POV, over the next 5 months, maybe yes, but 5 years?

Actually, I think the cost of energy will decline significantly in five years.

If you follow the herd, you'll be covered in turd.

[Tulpen]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

solar, wind, and molecular.

What the spot price of molecules nowadays? ;)

[Guest]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Molecular energy = "transmogrification", or maybe "transubstantiation" (if you are a Catholic).

What the spot price of molecules nowadays? ;)