Cramer says SELL!

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

My impression is that those nine guys have done pretty well all things considered. Like you say not having to worry about elections and a stupid short sighted media makes decision making a whole lot easier. Who knows longer term! Some things take 50 years or more to wash through. If there is social dislocation who knows what can happen.

They've been going through social dislocations since the end of the Qing dynasty. They can do social dislocation standing on their heads.
The long term outlook looks bleak. There's lots of potential for sure, but I'm afraid the cultural impact of the last 60 years on the Chinese psyche is going to get in the way.

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

That mountain air must be heady indeed. ...

It is.

What global energy constraints? Did someone tell you there is a shortage of energy? Are you having a hard time getting access to an energy source? Do you anticipate a looming shortage? Next, you're going tell me there's a global water shortage. Have you considered moving somewhere else (in the world) where you won't have that problem?

Reminds of when manufacturers complain about a shortage of workers.... adjust your costs and quit yer bitchin'....

[Guest]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Bam - I've traveled all over the world, and lived parts of my life in a half dozen countries on three continents. It is your own views on energy which I find parochial. Get off your hobby horse and read around on the energy question before sounding so absolute. You may paint yourself into somewhat of a tight corner otherwise. Indeed you already have.

It is.

What global energy constraints? Did someone tell you there is a shortage of energy? Are you having a hard time getting access to an energy source? Do you anticipate a looming shortage? Next, you're going tell me there's a global water shortage. Have you considered moving somewhere else (in the world) where you won't have that problem?

Reminds of when manufacturers complain about a shortage of workers.... adjust your costs and quit yer bitchin'....

[santafe2]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Bam - I've traveled all over the world, and lived parts of my life in a half dozen countries on three continents. It is your own views on energy which I find parochial. Get off your hobby horse and read around on the energy question before sounding so absolute. You may paint yourself into somewhat of a tight corner otherwise. Indeed you already have.

I would like nothing more than for 'bam' to be correct about renewables making some difference in energy cost but as much as we in the industry would wish it so, these sources will make somewhere between little and no difference over the next 5 years. I've pointed this out before, renewables are only effective in supporting stationary energy requirements. Our pockets are still empty, or all but, when it comes to mobile energy. Nano-technology strategies to process and store solar energy in a photosynthetic manner is coming to market but it's still 30-50 years away.

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Bam - I've traveled all over the world, and lived parts of my life in a half dozen countries on three continents. It is your own views on energy which I find parochial. Get off your hobby horse and read around on the energy question before sounding so absolute. You may paint yourself into somewhat of a tight corner otherwise. Indeed you already have.

Well, I guess you are right... I suppose the housing bubble isn't causing enough downward demand for energy prices to abate long term. And 8 years of a Texas oilman at the helm of US policies are coincidental to the rising prices for energy in the US. And it is unlikely that any technological advances or implementing existing efficient technologies will have an impact. So I'll get back to my word processor here, pop in my favorite 8-track, repaint my hobby horse and live in fear :eek:

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

it's still 30-50 years away.

you mean no other technologies will be possible until then? Oh my.
If somebody would have told me last year that we'd be able to replicate molecular infrastructures in the exact same way we replicate bacterial cells I would of said, "get the f*ck out of here"... and yet...

You wouldn't by chance be interested in a significant quantity of buggy whips, would you?

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Bam re the buggy whips...perhaps you jest...perhaps you jest not! It sure surprises me sometimes what turns up in some of these big warehouses. Until not too long ago I was seeing stuff still leftover from the central planning days!

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Good relations with Iran will solve the world's energy predicament?

When you get a chance, have a gander at Robert Baer's new book and for a primer you might want to glance at the latest issue of Foreign Affairs. If you don't understand why improved relations with Iran would decrease volatility in the Persian Gulf (and thus reduce oil prices) then you might want to get up off your hobby horse and have a look at a map.
Happy travels...

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

...perhaps you jest...perhaps you jest not!

:p I was jesting... referring to the successive technological advances that brought forth the automobile, leaving buggy whip manufacturers to twist in the wind. I'm no expert, but I've heard it said that synthetic fuel is ~11 years away. Just imagine if conventional energy lobbyists weren't influencing policy decisions, we might be there by now....

[touchring]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Australia still hanging on the thread of China still steaming ahead....infrastructure requiring our resources etc? What is your take on what will happen in China re infrastructure etc? Another thing, the property sector there looked like a bingle waiting to happen. Everywhere we go there are miles of massive new residential towers with few buyers? What are your thoughts?

things look bad, but one thing is definitely sure, you'll not be able to buy that qingdao land again, whatever happens.

[GRG55]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Well, I guess you are right... I suppose the housing bubble isn't causing enough downward demand for energy prices to abate long term. And 8 years of a Texas oilman at the helm of US policies are coincidental to the rising prices for energy in the US. And it is unlikely that any technological advances or implementing existing efficient technologies will have an impact. So I'll get back to my word processor here, pop in my favorite 8-track, repaint my hobby horse and live in fear :eek:

Actually, Dick Cheney was born in Nebraska and was elected to Congress to represent Wyoming. To my knowledge his only association with Texas was when he signed up for a Shotgun Ownership for Dummies course back in early 2006. Apparently he didn't pass...:rolleyes:

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

I have to strongly disagree with you(Iam also from India). India is going down faster and it has a nasty balance of trade deficit(without luxury of having the reserve currency like USA).

1) Property prices have gone up more than 400% in many cities including smaller ones in the last 5 years much exceeding the income level.

2) The stock market has also gone up around 1000% in the past 5 years.ie from 2500 to 22000 from 2003 to 2008.Now it has just given back 50% to 12000.

3) There is some serious money printing and monetary inflation in India. Look at the Indian Rupee getting crushed against the Dollar. So your return of investment in dollar terms will be reduced even if the values does not go down in Rupees.

4) There is will be adverse effect of this Global crisis on those outsourcing jobs(BPO and IT). The industrials like L&T,Cement,steels, auto...will get the drag effect.

5) Property prices in Bangalore(one of the premier cities) have already gone down 20% and now the builders are deciding to drop further 20%. They are getting crushed by low demand, high cost of building materials and labour. Also a lot of real estate was financed by investment banks like Lehman who are bringing their money back. The builders are truly frantic and the MIBOR(Mumbai Libor) was recently going at around 25%.

Until I see change in the above, I am staying put.

My property investment is in dirt cheap agricultural land on the outskirts of a fast growing city. I don't see a major risk of loss there.

All emerging market currencies have seen significant depreciation against the Dollar recently due to the US Dollar rally. Actually, once the US Treasuries bubble is popped, I expect the Rupee to pare most of those losses.

The trade deficit is not very large and India does not have the kind of external debt problem that America has, for example.

Yes if you are invested in Indian stocks, you will continue to lose money. But my investment in agricultural land on the outskirts of a fast growing city in Maharashtra has tripled in a year and a half - and prices are still not very high - given future growth due to a SEZ and numerous other projects. The key to making money in property is to buy land dirt cheap when prices are affordable. I agree that Bangalore prices and other big city price have plummeted. But that is because they ran up too much in the first place. By way of comparison, my land was bought at Rs. 36 a square foot (72 cents a square foot). When the SEZ is built up, I expect prices to exceed Rs 500 easily - and that would still be a lot cheaper than many other cities in India.

[metalman]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

My property investment is in dirt cheap agricultural land on the outskirts of a fast growing city. I don't see a major risk of loss there.

All emerging market currencies have seen significant depreciation against the Dollar recently due to the US Dollar rally. Actually, once the US Treasuries bubble is popped, I expect the Rupee to pare most of those losses.

The trade deficit is not very large and India does not have the kind of external debt problem that America has, for example.

Yes if you are invested in Indian stocks, you will continue to lose money. But my investment in agricultural land on the outskirts of a fast growing city in Maharashtra has tripled in a year and a half - and prices are still not very high - given future growth due to a SEZ and numerous other projects. The key to making money in property is to buy land dirt cheap when prices are affordable. I agree that Bangalore prices and other big city price have plummeted. But that is because they ran up too much in the first place. By way of comparison, my land was bought at Rs. 36 a square foot (72 cents a square foot). When the SEZ is built up, I expect prices to exceed Rs 500 easily - and that would still be a lot cheaper than many other cities in India.

great to hear a voice of experience and sanity. thanks.

when do you think the liquidity driven dollar rally end? ej says in 2 - 6 mo.

[zenith191]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

I think you mis-quote yourself didn't you mean >$6000/oz mid-2009

How about we go to $600 first and then we can look forward to $6000.

[Guest]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

No, it's $675. Great avatar BTW. Peter Sellers is my hero.