Cramer says SELL!

[jtabeb]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

[quote=sunskyfan;52502]Kind of my point. Nothing is going up besides anxiety, levels of panic, and gold. quote]

Exactly, so buy SOME GOLD and start sleeping again at night.

Trust me. There is nothing better than to be able to watch an 800 point down day in the DJIA and say, hey, my gold went up $25 /oz today.

THAT is PRICELESS!

[jtabeb]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

man, this is too funny. The near VIX hit's 79, the far VIX hit's 53, SP touches 1007, and Crammer says SELL!:eek:..... and you are saying that's not a buy signal? too funny!! :cool:
Buy that gold baby.... I'll pick it up from you at <$600/oz mid-2009 ;)

I think you mis-quote yourself didn't you mean >$6000/oz mid-2009

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

The emerging markets will be better buys shortly. Im Indian and Im looking to buy into some solid Indian stocks in a year or so. For the moment, the Dow will make all other indices sink deeper into the red. But I expect the emerging market stocks to recover a lot faster because they are in countries that will experience economic growth in real terms - unlike the United States.

Actually India is good also because it is much more insulated as an economy from all the chaos in the US financial system. Indian banks had very little or zero exposure to fancy derivative instruments. They also tend to be extremely conservative in their lending policies. Property prices also sky-rocketed in India but in India you cannot buy property without plying in at least 50-80 percent of the price in hard cash (they call it "black money" because they don't pay taxes on it). That makes it more difficult to have a bubble built on cheap credit. The only problem is government spending - but a change in government to right/centre should bring about good opportunities.

Im also long term bullish on China but think that now is the time to stay in hard currencies and precious metals and wait and watch. The stocks should get cheaper in a year or two. I don't think I'd buy any American stocks for many more years to come.

Incidentally, I have some investments in real estate in India which continue to grow at about 50-60 percent a year. But that is in small cities in India which are almost totally isolated from the global financial crisis.

[metalman]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

The emerging markets will be better buys shortly. Im Indian and Im looking to buy into some solid Indian stocks in a year or so. For the moment, the Dow will make all other indices sink deeper into the red. But I expect the emerging market stocks to recover a lot faster because they are in countries that will experience economic growth in real terms - unlike the United States.

Actually India is good also because it is much more insulated as an economy from all the chaos in the US financial system. Indian banks had very little or zero exposure to fancy derivative instruments. They also tend to be extremely conservative in their lending policies. Property prices also sky-rocketed in India but in India you cannot buy property without plying in at least 50-80 percent of the price in hard cash (they call it "black money" because they don't pay taxes on it). That makes it more difficult to have a bubble built on cheap credit. The only problem is government spending - but a change in government to right/centre should bring about good opportunities.

Im also long term bullish on China but think that now is the time to stay in hard currencies and precious metals and wait and watch. The stocks should get cheaper in a year or two. I don't think I'd buy any American stocks for many more years to come.

Incidentally, I have some investments in real estate in India which continue to grow at about 50-60 percent a year. But that is in small cities in India which are almost totally isolated from the global financial crisis.

thank you. will watch your posts with interest.

[metalman]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

On the today show, Jim Cramer says it's time to sell....a little behind the curve, wouldn't you say??

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just for fun, compare to dec 2006...

[grapejelly]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Cramer is saying that the market is going to discount the recession (Finally). I think he is right. And of course, it's worse than that...because anyone who invested post-2000 in an index is down 40% or 50% in inflation adjusted terms.

Inflation that we will be seeing soon makes stocks really bad...I think this is plain to Cramer.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

The emerging markets will be better buys shortly. Im Indian and Im looking to buy into some solid Indian stocks in a year or so. For the moment, the Dow will make all other indices sink deeper into the red. But I expect the emerging market stocks to recover a lot faster because they are in countries that will experience economic growth in real terms - unlike the United States.

Actually India is good also because it is much more insulated as an economy from all the chaos in the US financial system. Indian banks had very little or zero exposure to fancy derivative instruments. They also tend to be extremely conservative in their lending policies. Property prices also sky-rocketed in India but in India you cannot buy property without plying in at least 50-80 percent of the price in hard cash (they call it "black money" because they don't pay taxes on it). That makes it more difficult to have a bubble built on cheap credit. The only problem is government spending - but a change in government to right/centre should bring about good opportunities.

Im also long term bullish on China but think that now is the time to stay in hard currencies and precious metals and wait and watch. The stocks should get cheaper in a year or two. I don't think I'd buy any American stocks for many more years to come.

Incidentally, I have some investments in real estate in India which continue to grow at about 50-60 percent a year. But that is in small cities in India which are almost totally isolated from the global financial crisis.

Speaking to my HK Analyst (nah..not the psychiatric one) this morning, he was saying some Chinese property developers selling at 90% discount to NAV...after allowing for a 10 to 20% decline in RE prices!

[c1ue]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Actually India is good also because it is much more insulated as an economy from all the chaos in the US financial system.

Really? So all those outsourced call centers for American consumer crap - no effect?

All the back office operations of now defunct investment banks - no effect?

What about global steel consumption going down as economies go down - no effect?

Engineering design centers as electronic gewgaws of all sorts decline in sales - no effect?

And then there's the FDI: all money everywhere running home to mama and mattress. India has the lowest foreign reserves of the BRICs per person. No effect?

[rros]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

What about global steel consumption going down as economies go down - no effect?

Actually, on the steel front it looks like he is right. Take a look -today's news-,

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/80...srssheadlines1

In fact, from all commodities it appears steel might be the one that might be spared...

[c1ue]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Actually, on the steel front it looks like he is right. Take a look -today's news-,

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/80...srssheadlines1

In fact, from all commodities it appears steel might be the one that might be spared...

Let's check back in 6 months and see how this projected need turns out...

[sishya]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

The emerging markets will be better buys shortly. Im Indian and Im looking to buy into some solid Indian stocks in a year or so. For the moment, the Dow will make all other indices sink deeper into the red. But I expect the emerging market stocks to recover a lot faster because they are in countries that will experience economic growth in real terms - unlike the United States.

Actually India is good also because it is much more insulated as an economy from all the chaos in the US financial system. Indian banks had very little or zero exposure to fancy derivative instruments. They also tend to be extremely conservative in their lending policies. Property prices also sky-rocketed in India but in India you cannot buy property without plying in at least 50-80 percent of the price in hard cash (they call it "black money" because they don't pay taxes on it). That makes it more difficult to have a bubble built on cheap credit. The only problem is government spending - but a change in government to right/centre should bring about good opportunities.

Im also long term bullish on China but think that now is the time to stay in hard currencies and precious metals and wait and watch. The stocks should get cheaper in a year or two. I don't think I'd buy any American stocks for many more years to come.

Incidentally, I have some investments in real estate in India which continue to grow at about 50-60 percent a year. But that is in small cities in India which are almost totally isolated from the global financial crisis.

I have to strongly disagree with you(Iam also from India). India is going down faster and it has a nasty balance of trade deficit(without luxury of having the reserve currency like USA).

1) Property prices have gone up more than 400% in many cities including smaller ones in the last 5 years much exceeding the income level.

2) The stock market has also gone up around 1000% in the past 5 years.ie from 2500 to 22000 from 2003 to 2008.Now it has just given back 50% to 12000.

3) There is some serious money printing and monetary inflation in India. Look at the Indian Rupee getting crushed against the Dollar. So your return of investment in dollar terms will be reduced even if the values does not go down in Rupees.

4) There is will be adverse effect of this Global crisis on those outsourcing jobs(BPO and IT). The industrials like L&T,Cement,steels, auto...will get the drag effect.

5) Property prices in Bangalore(one of the premier cities) have already gone down 20% and now the builders are deciding to drop further 20%. They are getting crushed by low demand, high cost of building materials and labour. Also a lot of real estate was financed by investment banks like Lehman who are bringing their money back. The builders are truly frantic and the MIBOR(Mumbai Libor) was recently going at around 25%.

Until I see change in the above, I am staying put.

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

FWIW -- I live in China. Just to see how things are going, I walked over to the Bank of China and asked about buying gold. They have 1, 2, 5 and 10 oz bars at spot. They asked me how many I wanted. No shortage here....
meanwhile the big news of the day -- the corn and tobacco harvest look good this year.

[Guest]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

Yes Bam - you are likely to get something approximating that in EARLY 2009, (more likely though it's $675) - but you are not venturing to forecast it's price action thereafter. The fallacy of claiming "I walked into my bank and they have plenty" and extrapolating from there this is the global condition should be evident. This is nobody's form of respectable deductive logic.

It could not be accurately described as a "loose inventory" market at present you see.

Look to where the oil price will go in the next five years. Where that goes, you can factor in the gold price. Only the gold price will be eventually playing catch-up on the oil price. It's good to be agnostic about investments. But you are not being genuinely agnostic.

You are acting committed instead, to the thesis that the cost of energy in five years will be what it is today in real terms. And you will then be quite considerably in error. In net terms, your conclusions are in error already, although in the very short term you may be fleetingly correct. One could say you are / will be correct in the "strictly short term trader" sense only.

I would not envy the prospects of anyone here who chooses to remain consistently short energy for the next five years. :p

FWIW -- I live in China. Just to see how things are going, I walked over to the Bank of China and asked about buying gold. They have 1, 2, 5 and 10 oz bars at spot. They asked me how many I wanted. No shortage here.... meanwhile the big news of the day -- the corn and tobacco harvest look good this year.

man, this is too funny. The near VIX hit's 79, the far VIX hit's 53, SP touches 1007, and Crammer says SELL!:eek:..... and you are saying that's not a buy signal? too funny!! :cool: Buy that gold baby.... I'll pick it up from you at <$600/oz mid-2009 ;)

[Guest]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

I'm curious. Do my posts have the power to cause general constipation? They regularly seem to have that effect. :p

[bam]

Re: Cramer says SELL!

I agree that if your own country with the world's help is trying to devalue your currency, eventually they will win. But there's a few cycles yet to be played before gold becomes the reserve currency. It's looking a little bubbly.
I'm still thinking oz per oz, tuna is a much better investment.

Desperate times call for desperate measures -- the US should consider selling Alaska. I figure the Russians or Canadians will take it by force eventually in 25 years or so. Why not make a huge profit while we can? Selling Alaska would certainly take care of our problems for a good hundred years. I certainly wouldn't want to be holding gold when the next Treasury secretary floats that idea'r.